Prediction of Ground Water Level in Arid Environment Using a Non-Deterministic Model

Modeling and forecasting of the groundwater water table are a major component of effective planning and management of water resources. One way to predict the groundwater level is analysis using a non-deterministic model. This study assessed the performance of such models in predicting the groundwater level at Kashan aquifer. Data from 36 piezometer wells in Kashan aquifer for 1999 to 2010 were used. The desired statistical interval was divided into two parts and statistics for 1990 to 2004 were used for modeling and statistics from 2005 to 2010 were used for valediction of the model. The Akaike criterion and correlation coefficients were used to determine the accuracy of the prediction models. The results indicated that the AR(2) model more accurately predicted ground water level in the plains;using this model, the groundwater water table was predicted for up to 60 mo.

元素特征组合法在BZ凝析气田开发井潜山界面预警中的应用

渤海BZ凝析气田试验区开发井潜山界面卡取面临深层地震解释精度差、上部厚层泥岩缺少标志层、定向井及水平井井斜大、钻机提速导致岩屑细碎等作业难题。通过分析已钻井元素录井资料,应用多聚类特征选择算法对潜山及上覆地层进行敏感元素筛选,从中筛选出可进行地层对比和潜山界面深度预警的4种敏感元素Mn、S、Ca、Sr,并提出三级元素预警机制,建立区域元素特征剖面,实现了潜山上覆地层精细划分对比及界面深度预警;根据泥岩中Ca元素含量变化,建立两类潜山卡取模式类型,用于预警进入潜山钻井参数变化,实现了潜山界面深度和进入潜山钻井参数的精准预警,助力现场快速完成潜山界面的卡取,为钻井施工安全及潜山储层开发保护提供了技术保障。