Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission

In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.

The Measurement of Carbon Emission Effect of Construction Land Changes in Anhui Province Based on the Extended LMDI Model

In the context of ＂two-wheel drive＂ development mode, China＇s construction land shows significant expansion characteristics. The carbon emission effect of construction land changes is an important factor for the increase of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. In this study, the drivers of carbon emissions in Anhui Province from 1997 to 2011 were quantitatively measured using the improved Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. The results show that： economic growth, expansion of construction land and changes in population density have incremental effects on carbon emissions. The average contribution rate of economic growth as the first driver is 266.32 percent. The construction land expansion is an important driving factor with annual mean carbon effect of 6.4057 million tons and annual mean contribution rate of 187.30 percent. But the change in population density has little impact on carbon emission driving. Energy structure changes and energy intensity reduction have inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, of which the annual mean contribution rate is -212.06 percent and -158.115 percent respectively. The targeted policy approaches of carbon emission reduction were put forward based on the decomposition of carbon emission factors, laying a scientific basis to rationally use the land for the Government, which is conducive to build an ecological province for Anhui and achieve the purpose of emission reduction, providing a reference for the research on carbon emission effect of changes in provincial-scale construction land.