The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal d...The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources;while economic develo-ment and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems.Under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement,itis of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins.This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system.This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the"climate,economics,and technology-control objective inversion mode",which used total water consumption,water-use efficiency,and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions.This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin,a sub-catchment located in southem margin of the Taklimakan Desert.The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated,and the trends in the short term(2020),middle tem(2030),and long term(2050)were predicted.The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin,which leads to an increase in total water resources.Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect,while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.展开更多
Based on the runoff and meteorological data of Langan（兰干） Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2009 in Keriya（克里雅） River,the periodicities,abrupt changes,and trends of climate factors and runoff were investigate...Based on the runoff and meteorological data of Langan（兰干） Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2009 in Keriya（克里雅） River,the periodicities,abrupt changes,and trends of climate factors and runoff were investigated by wavelet analysis and nonparametric test;then,the future change of the annual runoff was predicted by a periodic trend superposition model.In succession,the influencing volumes of climate change on the annual runoff were separated from the observation values of the an-nual runoff in Keriya River.The results show that（1） temperature series increased significantly,while the annual runoff and precipitation of Keriya River increased insignificantly at the significant level of α=0.05;（2） the common periods of 9 and 15 years existed in the annual runoff evolution process,and the primary periods of temperature and precipitation were 9 and 22 years and 9 and 13 years,respec-tively;（3） the annual runoff did not vary simultaneously with the abrupt change of climate factors in the headstream;the abrupt points of annual runoff and temperature are at 1998 and 1980 year,and that of precipitation is not so significant;and（4） the annual runoff will experience a decrease trend in the future period;the total increasing volume owing to climate change is 23.154×108 m3 in the head-stream during the period of 1999-2009;however,the stream flow has been nearly utilized completely due to the human activities in the mainstream area of Keriya River.展开更多
Over one hundred artifacts, including shards, chopped wood, bronze and iron ware debris as well as footprints, have been discovered during archaeological investigations at and around the central Taklamakan Desert Yuan...Over one hundred artifacts, including shards, chopped wood, bronze and iron ware debris as well as footprints, have been discovered during archaeological investigations at and around the central Taklamakan Desert Yuansha Site (38°52′N, 81°35′E). Dating (14C and OSL) and landform study show that the present-day dry Keriya River once sustained an oasis human settle- ment in 2.6 ka BP, historically falling into the Spring and Autumn Period (716-475 BCE) of Chinese history. The chronology and archaeological interpretations also show that some 400 years later, the local Keriya River channel had shifted 40 km southeast to sustain a Western Han (206 BCE-25 CE) Wumi settlement at the Karadun site. In the meantime, river-channel migration had allowed reoccupation of a site west of Yuansha City around 1.9 ka BP (abandoned again by 1.6 ka BP). The remains' chronology shows that this site was affiliated to Wumi culture and Eastern Han (24-220 CE) dynasty rule. Palaeoclimatic records indicate that the migrations of the river and oasis settlers between 2.7 and 1.6 ka BP were coeval with Central Asian climate changes. Yuansha City was built just after the end of 2.8 ka BP glacier advances in western China, suggesting that release of more water during the subsequent glacier recession may have facilitated oasis development such that Iron Age European peoples could settle in the Tarim Basin. As shown from analysis of archeological remains, not only at Yuansha but also in other ancient cities in the Tarim such as Loulan and Jingjue (Niya), conditions around 1.6 ka BP were dry enough to cause oasis decline. Thus, the results reported here enhance our knowledge about environmental changes and their effects on human activities and cultural evolution in western China and will stimulate further interdisciplinary studies of landscape and oasis history in the Tarim Basin.展开更多
黄土是地质时期沙尘天气形成的粉尘堆积物,其粒度特征记录了粉尘搬运过程中的古大气环流格局和古环境演化信息。本文对昆仑山北坡克里雅河支流的第5级阶地羊场黄土剖面进行了系统的粒度分析,结果表明,黄土粒度组成主要以粗粉砂和砂砾为...黄土是地质时期沙尘天气形成的粉尘堆积物,其粒度特征记录了粉尘搬运过程中的古大气环流格局和古环境演化信息。本文对昆仑山北坡克里雅河支流的第5级阶地羊场黄土剖面进行了系统的粒度分析,结果表明,黄土粒度组成主要以粗粉砂和砂砾为主,分选较好;羊场黄土为塔克拉玛干沙漠的近源风成堆积,粒度指标主要指示沙漠范围和源区气候干旱程度;粒度结果的详细分析及其与全球其他记录的对比表明,塔里木盆地南缘气候在8.5~3.6 ka B.P.较为湿润稳定,3.6 ka B.P.以来气候急剧变干并出现大幅度波动的千年尺度突变事件,与其他地区古气候记录有较好的一致性。塔里木盆地南缘8.5 ka B.P.以来的气候变化具有季风模式和千年尺度气候振荡的双重特点,可能同时受低纬度亚洲季风和北半球高纬度地区气候的影响;太阳辐射减弱引起的亚洲夏季风衰退可能导致了3.6 ka B.P.以来盆地的干旱化,同时,受太阳辐射驱动的北半球高纬度地区的气候变化,可能通过增加西风环流的强度及其波动幅度,进一步加剧了3.6 ka B.P.以来塔里木盆地南缘气候的干旱化和不稳定性。展开更多
文摘The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources;while economic develo-ment and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems.Under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement,itis of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins.This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system.This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the"climate,economics,and technology-control objective inversion mode",which used total water consumption,water-use efficiency,and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions.This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin,a sub-catchment located in southem margin of the Taklimakan Desert.The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated,and the trends in the short term(2020),middle tem(2030),and long term(2050)were predicted.The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin,which leads to an increase in total water resources.Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect,while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2009CB421308)the Ministry of Water Resources Special Fund for Scientific Research on Public Causes (No. 201101049)
文摘Based on the runoff and meteorological data of Langan（兰干） Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2009 in Keriya（克里雅） River,the periodicities,abrupt changes,and trends of climate factors and runoff were investigated by wavelet analysis and nonparametric test;then,the future change of the annual runoff was predicted by a periodic trend superposition model.In succession,the influencing volumes of climate change on the annual runoff were separated from the observation values of the an-nual runoff in Keriya River.The results show that（1） temperature series increased significantly,while the annual runoff and precipitation of Keriya River increased insignificantly at the significant level of α=0.05;（2） the common periods of 9 and 15 years existed in the annual runoff evolution process,and the primary periods of temperature and precipitation were 9 and 22 years and 9 and 13 years,respec-tively;（3） the annual runoff did not vary simultaneously with the abrupt change of climate factors in the headstream;the abrupt points of annual runoff and temperature are at 1998 and 1980 year,and that of precipitation is not so significant;and（4） the annual runoff will experience a decrease trend in the future period;the total increasing volume owing to climate change is 23.154×108 m3 in the head-stream during the period of 1999-2009;however,the stream flow has been nearly utilized completely due to the human activities in the mainstream area of Keriya River.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421308)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40701188 and 40971020)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Grant No. 2010211A12)the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang University (Grant No. BS060112)the Project of Oasis Ecological Key Lab of Education Ministry Xinjiang University (Grant No. XJDX0206-2007-08)
文摘Over one hundred artifacts, including shards, chopped wood, bronze and iron ware debris as well as footprints, have been discovered during archaeological investigations at and around the central Taklamakan Desert Yuansha Site (38°52′N, 81°35′E). Dating (14C and OSL) and landform study show that the present-day dry Keriya River once sustained an oasis human settle- ment in 2.6 ka BP, historically falling into the Spring and Autumn Period (716-475 BCE) of Chinese history. The chronology and archaeological interpretations also show that some 400 years later, the local Keriya River channel had shifted 40 km southeast to sustain a Western Han (206 BCE-25 CE) Wumi settlement at the Karadun site. In the meantime, river-channel migration had allowed reoccupation of a site west of Yuansha City around 1.9 ka BP (abandoned again by 1.6 ka BP). The remains' chronology shows that this site was affiliated to Wumi culture and Eastern Han (24-220 CE) dynasty rule. Palaeoclimatic records indicate that the migrations of the river and oasis settlers between 2.7 and 1.6 ka BP were coeval with Central Asian climate changes. Yuansha City was built just after the end of 2.8 ka BP glacier advances in western China, suggesting that release of more water during the subsequent glacier recession may have facilitated oasis development such that Iron Age European peoples could settle in the Tarim Basin. As shown from analysis of archeological remains, not only at Yuansha but also in other ancient cities in the Tarim such as Loulan and Jingjue (Niya), conditions around 1.6 ka BP were dry enough to cause oasis decline. Thus, the results reported here enhance our knowledge about environmental changes and their effects on human activities and cultural evolution in western China and will stimulate further interdisciplinary studies of landscape and oasis history in the Tarim Basin.
文摘黄土是地质时期沙尘天气形成的粉尘堆积物,其粒度特征记录了粉尘搬运过程中的古大气环流格局和古环境演化信息。本文对昆仑山北坡克里雅河支流的第5级阶地羊场黄土剖面进行了系统的粒度分析,结果表明,黄土粒度组成主要以粗粉砂和砂砾为主,分选较好;羊场黄土为塔克拉玛干沙漠的近源风成堆积,粒度指标主要指示沙漠范围和源区气候干旱程度;粒度结果的详细分析及其与全球其他记录的对比表明,塔里木盆地南缘气候在8.5~3.6 ka B.P.较为湿润稳定,3.6 ka B.P.以来气候急剧变干并出现大幅度波动的千年尺度突变事件,与其他地区古气候记录有较好的一致性。塔里木盆地南缘8.5 ka B.P.以来的气候变化具有季风模式和千年尺度气候振荡的双重特点,可能同时受低纬度亚洲季风和北半球高纬度地区气候的影响;太阳辐射减弱引起的亚洲夏季风衰退可能导致了3.6 ka B.P.以来盆地的干旱化,同时,受太阳辐射驱动的北半球高纬度地区的气候变化,可能通过增加西风环流的强度及其波动幅度,进一步加剧了3.6 ka B.P.以来塔里木盆地南缘气候的干旱化和不稳定性。
