Assessment of China's economic loss resulting from the degradation of agricultural land in the end of 20th century

Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326 81 billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4 1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1 5 in the only 7 years.

Depreciation factor equation to evaluate the economic losses from ground failure due to subsidence related to groundwater withdrawal

Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, in combination with subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, generates differential settlements and aseismic ground failure (AGF) characterized by a welldefined scarp. In cities, such AGF causes severe damages to urban infrastructure and considerable economic impact. With the goal of arriving to a general criterion for evaluating the economic losses derived from AGF, in the present work we propose the following equation: ELi = PVi*DFi. Where PVi is the value of a property “i”, and DFi is a depreciation factor caused by structural damages of a property “i” due to AGF. The DFi is calculated empirically through: . This last equation is based on the spatial relations of coexistence and proximity of property polygons and the AGF axis. The coexistence is valued as the quotient of the affectation area divided by the total area of the involved property;and the proximity to the AGF axis is expressed as the inverse of the perpendicular distance from the centroid of the property polygon to the AGF axis. The sum of these terms is divided by two to determine the percentage that affects the property value (PVi). These equations are relevant because it is the first indicator designed for the discrete assessment of the economic impacts due to AGF, and can be applied to real estate infrastructure from either urban or rural areas.

Economic Losses from Winter Storms

China’s economic losses from the January winter storms keep escalating. The Ministry of Civil Affairs estimated that the direct economic losses valued

Partial least squares regression for predicting economic loss of vegetables caused by acid rain

To predict the economic loss of crops caused by acid rain,we used partial least squares(PLS) regression to build a model of single dependent variable -the economic loss calculated with the decrease in yield related to the pH value and levels of Ca2+,NH4+,Na+,K+,Mg2+,SO42-,NO3-,and Cl-in acid rain. We selected vegetables which were sensitive to acid rain as the sample crops,and collected 12 groups of data,of which 8 groups were used for modeling and 4 groups for testing. Using the cross validation method to evaluate the performace of this prediction model indicates that the optimum number of principal components was 3,determined by the minimum of prediction residual error sum of squares,and the prediction error of the regression equation ranges from -2.25% to 4.32%. The model predicted that the economic loss of vegetables from acid rain is negatively corrrelated to pH and the concentrations of NH4+,SO42-,NO3-,and Cl-in the rain,and positively correlated to the concentrations of Ca2+,Na+,K+ and Mg2+. The precision of the model may be improved if the non-linearity of original data is addressed.

Assessment of Economic Loss Caused by Agricultural Non-point Source Nutrient Loss

Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, we use the JOHNES export coefficient model to estimate the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load of agricultural planting, livestock and poultry breeding and rural living non-point source in 2009. Based on the protection cost method in environmental economics, we quantitatively assess the economic loss caused by these three types of non-point source nutrient loss. The results show that in TN non-point source load, the load of land for planting accounts for 57.48%, the load of rural living accounts for 30.22%, and the load of livestock and poultry breeding accounts for 12.30%; in TP non-point source load, the load of rural living accounts for 46.18%, the load of livestock and poultry breeding accounts for 29.00%, and the load of land for planting accounts for 24.82%. The economic loss arising from the agricultural non-point source nutrient loss is equivalent to 2.329 424 7 billion yuan per year (the loss from land for planting accounts for 55.46%; the loss from rural living accounts for 31.21%; the loss from livestock and poultry breeding accounts for 13.33%). It indicates that in order to reduce the loss arising from agricultural non-point source nutrient loss, we should pay attention to controlling the land for planting and rural living source.

Measuring economic loss caused by ecological damages: a case study of China's forest ecosystem in 2005

At present about 60% of ecosystem has been damaged and degraded severely, resulting in enormous eco logical loss globally. The essential cause is the irrational utilization of ecosystem by humankind, so it is the key to changing improper environmental performance of humankind so as to prevent ecosystem from being damaged. The quantitative valuation on the loss of ecological damage is an effective tool to guide human eco environmental per formance. In this paper, the concepts related to the valuation on ecological damage cost are introduced; uncertain ties that might arise in the valuation on the loss of ecological damage such as area coverage of valuation, ecological damage quantity, borders of ecological damage cost and data support are analyzed; and the valuation approaches for the loss of ecological damage are also discussed. As a case study, the economic losses of ecological damage of forest in 2005 in China are valuated.

Hazard Footprint-Based Normalization of Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in China During 1983–2015

Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.

Evaluation of economic loss from energy-related environmental pollution： a case study of Beijing

With the growth of energy consumption, energy-related environmental pollution has become increasingly serious, which in turn causes enormous economic loss because of public health damage, corrosion of materials, crop yield reduction, and other factors. Evaluating economic loss caused by energy-related environmental pollution can contribute to decision making in energy management. A framework for evaluating economic loss from environmental pollution produced during energy production, transportation, and consumption is proposed in this paper. Regarding SO2, PMlo, and solid waste as the main pollutants, economic losses from health damage, materials corrosion, crop yield reduction, and solid waste pollution are estimated based on multiple concentration-response relationships and dos^response functions. The proposed framework and evaluation methods are applied to Beijing, China. It is evident that total economic loss attributable to energy-related environ-mental pollution fluctuated during 2000-2011 but had a general growth trend, with the highest value reaching 2.3× 108 CNY （China Yuan） in 2006. Economic loss caused by health damage contributes most to the total loss among the four measured damage types. The total economic loss strongly correlates with the amount of energy consumption, especially for oil and electricity. Our evaluation framework and methods can be used widely to measure the potential impact of environmental pollution in the energy lifecycle.

Using Climate Factors to Estimate Flood Economic Loss Risk

Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagged influence of climate factors,we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process.The main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.We identified the correlative climate factors through crosscorrelation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation patterns.Risk assessment was done based on the main precipitation patterns.Because the economic dataset is limited,a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime(rainy,dry,normal years)to obtain aggregate exceedance probability(AEP)and occurrence exceedance probability(OEP)curves.We found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk,with the highest risk in rainy years.Regional economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan Province.As the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation,the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.

Assessment of the damages and direct economic loss in Hong Kong due to Super Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018

Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong on September 16,2018,necessitating the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal,No.10 Hurricane Signal.Packing ferocious winds and record-breaking storm surge,Mangkhut brought the most serious and widespread destruction to the territory in the recent three decades.A series of post event information search,field visits and damage surveys has been conducted by the Hong Kong Observatory(HKO)and the findings on the damages and impacts caused by Mangkhut in different parts of the territory are documented in this paper.Moreover,by analyzing the economic loss data reported by various government departments,public utilities and organizations in Hong Kong and the statistics on insurance claims from the Hong Kong Federation of Insurers(HKFI),the estimated direct economic loss due to Mangkhut in Hong Kong is about HK$4.60 billion,which is about 3.8 times to that of Super Typhoon Hato in 2017.On the contrary,in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the estimated direct economic loss due to Hato is significantly higher than that of Mangkhut.This could be attributed to the early and effective warnings for Mangkhut,increased public awareness and typhoon preparedness for Mangkhut in 2018 since the fierce attack of Hato in 2017,and infrastructure enhancement of the major impact areas.

Effect of acidic deposition on productivity of forest ecosystem and estimation of its economic losses in southern suburbs of Chongqing, China

In accordance with principles and methods of ecology, the effects of acidic deposition on productivity and volume increment of masson pine and Cinnamomum campora forest which are widely distributed in southern suburbs of Chongqing, China were studied. Based on the field data and measurements, a multivariable stepwise regression model was established to analyze the effects of multiple environmental factors on the productivity of the forest ecosystems. This model was used to assess the volume and economic losses of these two forest ecosystems caused by acidic deposition. The result showed that, among the environmental factors, pH value of precipitation, soil depth, soil organic contents and slope are the dominant ones influencing the growth of masson pine forest. It was also shown that the acidic deposition has no clear relation to the growth of C.Campora forest, so development of such broad leaved forest is suitable in the area.

Co‑infection of fasciolosis and hydatidosis and their financial loss in cattle slaughtered at Wolaita Sodo municipal abattoir,southern Ethiopia

Fasciolosis and hydatidosis are the world’s most common zoonotic major parasitic ailments of domesticated animals with financial and public health implications.A cross-sectional study was conducted on 384 randomly selected cattle slaughtered at Wolaita Sodo municipal abattoir to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for co-infection of hydatidosis and fasciolosis using the ante-and postmortem examination techniques.Of the 384 examined cattle,4.17%were found to harbor co-infections of hydatidosis and fasciolosis.Similarly,the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infections was 76.56%and 23.44%in local and crossbred animals,respectively.The current study took into account risk factors such as age,breed,origin,and body condition score;however,there is a statistically insignificant association between the risk factors and the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infection.In this study,overall fasciolosis was recorded at a rate of 9.38%,with the highest prevalence of F.hepatica at 8.59%,followed by unidentified flukes at 4.17%and F.gigantica at 0.78%.Likewise,the single prevalence of hydatidosis was recorded at 10.94%.Of the 142 examined cysts,the liver alone harbors 54 cysts,and the lung alone harbors 88 cysts,with a total of 43 calcified,21 sterile,56 viable,9 nonviable,and 13 mixed cysts.The predicted yearly financial loss from organ condemnation was 15,436,142.00 ETB Birr.This study demonstrated that hydatidosis and fasciolosis are two relatively widespread parasite diseases of cattle in Ethiopia,causing significant economic loss attributable to organ rejection and indirect weight loss.Thus,awareness of the impact of the disease on the community could disrupt the parasite’s life cycle,and its economic significance was forwarded to other points.

Financial Losses Associated with Bovine Brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in Carchi-Ecuador

Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.

Understanding Business Disruption and Economic Losses Due to Electricity Failures and Flooding

Failure of critical national infrastructures can cause disruptions with widespread economic impacts.To analyze these economic impacts,we present an integrated modeling framework that combines:(1)geospatial information on infrastructure assets/networks and the natural hazards to which they are exposed;(2)geospatial modeling of the reliance of businesses upon infrastructure services,in order to quantify disruption to businesses locations and economic activities in the event of infrastructure failures;and(3)multiregional supply-use economic modeling to analyze wider economic impacts of disruptions to businesses.The methodology is exemplified through a case study for the United Kingdom.The study uses geospatial information on the location of electricity infrastructure assets and local industrial areas,and employs a multiregional supply-use model of the UK economy that traces the impacts of floods of different return intervals across37 subnational regions of the UK.The results show up to a300%increase in total economic losses when power outages are included in the risk assessment,compared to analysis that just includes the economic impacts of business interruption due to flooded business premises.This increase indicates that risk studies that do not include failure of critical infrastructures may be underestimating the total losses.

A Damage Scenario for the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes and Estimation of the Economic Losses to Residential Buildings

In May 2012 a seismic sequence occurred in Northern Italy that was characterized by two main shocks with a magnitude range between 5.5 and 6. These shocks represent a good case study by which to quantify the monetary losses caused by a moderate earthquake in a densely populated and economically well-developed area.The loss estimation accounts for damage to residential buildings, and considers the full effect of all the seismic aftershock events that lasted for nearly a month. The building damage estimation is based on the European Macroseismic Scale(EMS-98) definitions, which depict the effects of an earthquake on built-up areas in terms of observed intensities. Input data sources are the residential building census provided by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica—the Italian National Institute of Statistics(ISTAT)—and the official market value of real estate assets, obtained from the Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare—the Real Estate Market Observatory(OMI). These data make it possible to quantify the economic losses due to earthquakes, an economic indicator updated yearly. The proposed multidisciplinary method takes advantage of seismic,engineering, and economic data sets, and is able to provide a reasonable after the event losses scenario. Data are not gathered for each single building and the intensity values are not a simple hazard indicator, but, notwithstanding its coarseness, this method ensures both robust and reproducible results. As the local property value is availablethroughout the Italian territory, the present loss assessment can be effortlessly repeated for any area, and may be quickly reproduced in case of future events, or used for predictive economic estimations.

The Theory and Method on Assessment of Economic Loss of Disaster

Based on the characteristic of natural disaster, this paper studies the classification of thedisaster loss. Then it mainly discusses the assessment method of economic loss of natural disaster.

Performance-Economic and Energy Loss Analysis of 80 KWp Grid Connected Roof Top Transformer Less Photovoltaic Power Plant

In India most part receives 4 - 7 kWh of solar radiation per square meter per day with 200 - 250 sunny days in a year. Tamilnadu state also receives the highest annual radiation in India. In this paper, the grid connected photovoltaic plant has a peak power of 80 KWp supplies electricity requirement of GRT IET campus during day time (7 hrs) and reduces load demand and generates useful data for future implementation of such PV plant projects in the Tamilnadu region. Photovoltaic plant was installed in April 2015, monitored during 6 months, and the performance ratio and the various power losses (power electronics, temperature, soiling, internal, network, grid availability and interconnection) were calculated. The PV plant supplied 64,182.86 KWh to the grid from April to September 2015, ranging from 11,510.900 to 10,200.9 kWh. The final yield ranged from 143.886 (h/d) to 127.51 (y/d), reference yield ranged from 201.6 (h/d) to 155.31 (h/d) and performance ratio ranged from 71.3% to 82.1%, for a duration of six months, it had given a performance ratio of 83.82%, system efficiency was 4.16% and the capacity factor of GRT IET Campus for six months was 18.26%. Payback period in years = 9 years 4 months, energy saving per year = 204,400 KWh, cost reduction per year = 1,737,400, Indian rupee = 26,197.30 USD and total CO2 reductions per year = 102,200 tons CO2/year.

考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失评估

洪涝灾害是对我国影响最大的自然灾害之一。聚焦灾害损失评估问题,本文构建了考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数。一方面,表征灾害损失随着致灾因子强度先递增、而后增幅趋缓的静态S型曲线关系;另一方面,通过量级、形状和位置三个参数综合考虑灾害损失随时间的动态变化情况。基于《中国水旱灾害防御公报》提供的受灾人口、直接经济损失数据,对于各省级行政区2006—2021年洪涝灾害损失进行评估分析。结果表明:通过拟合洪涝灾害损失函数,洪涝灾害损失关于致灾因子强度和时间的三维空间散点图可有效地拓展成为连续的三维空间曲面及二维空间热力图。各省级行政区受灾人口整体上呈现出逐年下降的特征,但随致灾因子强度的增加而趋于增加。各省级行政区直接经济损失则表现出明显的差异,随时间呈现出大幅下降、缓慢下降和略有增加等不同特征。考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数是变化环境下灾害评估的有效工具,可为区域洪涝灾情评估提供借鉴和参考。

基于累积置信规则库推理的台风灾害直接经济损失预测

针对台风灾害直接经济损失预测问题,现有的解决方法大多是基于时间序列或评估数据的预测模型,忽略了在建模过程中对历史数据的应用和模型的可解释性。鉴于此,该文将扩展置信规则库模型(EBRB)应用于台风灾害直接经济损失预测,并针对可能存在规则过量和组合爆炸问题,提出基于聚类方法与证据推理(ER)相结合的累积置信规则库(C-BRB)台风灾害经济损失预测模型。最后基于收集到的台风灾害数据进行直接经济损失预测,并通过与已有研究成果进行比较,验证基于C-BRB的台风灾害直接经济损失预测模型的有效性和可行性。

基于AHP耦合Sigmoid函数的重载铁路黄土边坡风险分析

重载铁路具有大轴重、高密度、大运量的运输特点,黄土边坡路基段一直是重载铁路运营的高风险区段,现有风险评价方法尚无法满足其风险量化分析的需求。利用层次分析法AHP耦合Sigmoid函数的方法,围绕事故发生概率和损失两个方面对重载铁路黄土边坡工程展开风险定量评价。首先以边坡滑塌事故调研和稳定性控制理论为基础,明确黄土边坡的失稳影响因素,建立重载铁路黄土边坡稳定性评价模型和边坡失稳危害性评价模型;然后应用层次分析法建立黄土边坡稳定性评价模型指标权重,并提出各级影响因素的指标赋值方法;而后引入基于朴素贝叶斯理论的Sigmoid函数,构建边坡稳定服役概率、风险判断矩阵和黄土边坡的风险等级确定方法;最后以朔黄铁路某站高陡黄土边坡为工程背景,应用所得理论方法对其进行风险定量分析,计算得出该边坡失稳概率为0.64,造成经济损失约8611万元,隶属于高风险等级,并针对坡体几何特征、渗透能力、基岩特性等低分指标提出了具体的安全性提升措施建议。