Predictive Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of the Dynamic Poverty Problem in Burundi: Case of an Innovative Economic Optimization System

The mathematical and statistical modeling of the problem of poverty is a major challenge given Burundi’s economic development. Innovative economic optimization systems are widely needed to face the problem of the dynamic of the poverty in Burundi. The Burundian economy shows an inflation rate of -1.5% in 2018 for the Gross Domestic Product growth real rate of 2.8% in 2016. In this research, the aim is to find a model that contributes to solving the problem of poverty in Burundi. The results of this research fill the knowledge gap in the modeling and optimization of the Burundian economic system. The aim of this model is to solve an optimization problem combining the variables of production, consumption, budget, human resources and available raw materials. Scientific modeling and optimal solving of the poverty problem show the tools for measuring poverty rate and determining various countries’ poverty levels when considering advanced knowledge. In addition, investigating the aspects of poverty will properly orient development aid to developing countries and thus, achieve their objectives of growth and the fight against poverty. This paper provides a new and innovative framework for global scientific research regarding the multiple facets of this problem. An estimate of the poverty rate allows good progress with the theory and optimization methods in measuring the poverty rate and achieving sustainable development goals. By comparing the annual food production and the required annual consumption, there is an imbalance between different types of food. Proteins, minerals and vitamins produced in Burundi are sufficient when considering their consumption as required by the entire Burundian population. This positive contribution for the latter comes from the fact that some cows, goats, fishes, ···, slaughtered in Burundi come from neighboring countries. Real production remains in deficit. The lipids, acids, calcium, fibers and carbohydrates produced in Burundi are insufficient for consumption. This negative contribution proves a Burundian food deficit. It is a decision-making indicator for the design and updating of agricultural policy and implementation programs as well as projects. Investment and economic growth are only possible when food security is mastered. The capital allocated to food investment must be revised upwards. Demographic control is also a relevant indicator to push forward Burundi among the emerging countries in 2040. Meanwhile, better understanding of the determinants of poverty by taking cultural and organizational aspects into account guides managers for poverty reduction projects and programs.

The Research of Impact of Returning Cultivated Land to Forests in Poverty Areas around Beijing-Tianjin on Local Economy——A Case of Shunping County in Hebei Province, China

Taking Shunping County of Hebei Province as an example,according to the relevant survey data in the year 2008 after returning cultivated land and data in the year 2001 before returning cultivated land, the thesis analyzes the impact of implementation of project of returning cultivated land to forests on local land use structure, three industrial added value and famers' per capita income. The results show that returning cultivated land has played a certain positive role on the local economic development and the improvement of people's life level.However, there are also some shortcomings: although famers' income is increasing with low growth rate, a large portion of famers still have not shaken off poverty; the farmers depends on subsidies greatly and the compensation mechanism of returning cultivated land is not considered well. China should further perfect the ecological compensation plan, and build rational ecological compensation mechanism in order to make the areas of returning cultivated land have self-blood-producing function; Shunping County should make full use of the location advantage in areas around Beijing-Tianjin, develop deep processing based on fruit trees industry, strengthen farmers' skill training, and increase input in the agricultural infrastructure construction to propel the sustainable development of agriculture.

ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC REHABILITATION IN THE KARST OF SOUTHWEST CHINA

The Karst of Southwest China is a typical representative of poverty stricken region with impoverishment-degradation spiral. To essentially break away from this vicious circle, the local ecology, economy and society should be rehabilitated, and hence to strengthen the self-development capacity building of the localities. Two considerations are stressed in this article: (1) Poverty alleviation is a system project with great complexities. Any single approach is difficult to success and integrated measures should be taken. (2) Some typical and feasible areas should be selected to demonstrate the project of poverty alleviation and ecological, socio-economic reconstruction. Then, they can be used as a model to promote the sustainable development of the whole region. Based upon these ideals, a project entitled “Reversal of Impoverishment-Degradation Spiral in the Karst of Southwest China' was proposed and has been listed in 《Priority Programme for China's Agenda 21》.

Spatial Coupling Relationship and Driving Mechanism of Population and Economy in Rural Areas in Qinling-Daba Mountains,China

Addressing the issue of the healthy and coordinated development of the population and economic factors in rural areas will not only help consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation,but will also lay a foundation for comprehensive rural revitalization.In this paper,the spatial coupling relationship between the population and economic factors in rural areas in the QinlingDaba Mountains,China,is explored to provide a reference for rural revitalization and regional sustainable development in poverty areas.Sixty-eight county units in rural areas in the Qinling-Daba Mountains,as well as the population and economic factors in rural areas,are used to study the spatial coupling relationship between population and economy,as well as the driving mechanism,in rural areas in the Qinling-Daba Mountains from 2010 to 2020.The results show that a population contraction phenomenon occurred in the rural areas in the Qinling-Daba Mountains,and the spatial agglomeration trends of the population and economic factors were consistent.The agglomeration was mainly located in the suburban areas of the municipal area,and the agglomeration degree was significantly higher in these areas than in other areas.In terms of the spatial distribution,the economic development level of the rural areas in the northeastern part of the Qinling-Daba Mountains was generally higher than that in the central and western parts,and the unbalanced trends of the population and economic spatial differentiation in the eastern and western regions were significant.The spatial coupling relationship between the population and economy changed from coordinated development to economic advancement.This was mainly due to the mutual restriction and joint actions of the industrial structure,capital situation,natural environment,policies,and institutional regulations,among which the industrial structure and capital status had significant effects.

Mental and Cardiovascular Health of Portuguese Subjects in a Situation of Economic Insufficiency

Economic insufficiency causes stress and negative affects. Poverty is self-perpetuated, also due to a particular pattern of economic behaviors induced by negative affects and stress. Often, loneliness occurs together with economic insufficiency. For this study, it has been selected a sample of convenience. A positive correlation between anxiety/depression and negative affects is presented. Dispositional optimism and social support, factors which contribute to health, serve as buffers, in negative correlation, of the negative impact of negative affects, due to financial restraint, on health. Financial management is negatively correlated with the lack of cardiovascular health, and cardiovascular dysfunction correlates positively with loneliness, in this study. Positive affects correlate positively with resilience skills, which correlate negatively with depression. Within this context, psychobiological therapeutic interventions and psychotherapy, which also target psychological dysfunction related to economic behavior of persons in a situation of poverty, would be beneficial.

主观家庭经济地位对脱贫家庭儿童社会流动信念的影响:一般自我效能感的相对中介作用

目的:探讨主观家庭经济地位对脱贫家庭儿童的社会流动信念的影响及一般自我效能感的相对中介作用。方法:采用社会流动信念量表、主观家庭经济地位量表、一般自我效能感量表对645名脱贫家庭儿童进行调查。结果:1主观家庭经济地位、一般自我效能感与脱贫家庭儿童社会流动信念呈显著正相关(r=0.18,0.21;P<0.01);2主观家庭经济地位对脱贫家庭儿童社会流动信念的直接效应和一般自我效能感在两者间的整体中介作用均显著,中介效应值是0.04;3一般自我效能感在两者间的相对中介作用显著,与中等组相比,高分组相对中介效应显著,相对中介效应值是0.08,低分组不显著。结论:主观家庭经济地位既可直接影响脱贫家庭儿童社会流动信念,也可通过一般自我效能感的中介作用间接影响社会流动信念,且在主观家庭经济地位高分组中还存在相对中介效应。

民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持对生育意愿的影响--经济账还是情感账

代际支持是现阶段影响家庭生育意愿的重要因素。在国家鼓励生育背景下,通过构建“能力-环境-意愿”框架,探讨民族地区脱贫家庭代际支持对生育意愿的影响。研究发现:第一,民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持有助于提高生育意愿,其中经济账起主要作用,情感账以经济账的作用为前提;第二,在经济账中,民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持主要通过能力驱动机制影响生育意愿,即通过降低抚育成本、增加核心家庭收入和节约教育成本来提升生育意愿;第三,在情感账中,民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持通过环境驱动机制影响生育意愿,即通过强化家庭导向为主的生育动机和塑造积极的生育态度来提升生育意愿。上述发现为代际支持提升生育意愿提供了新的视角和经验证据。

基本医疗保险参与增强居民家庭经济韧性了吗?

基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014—2020年共4期数据,利用贫困陷阱理论和非线性动力学理论测度居民家庭经济韧性,厘清基本医疗保险参与增强居民家庭经济韧性的机理。研究发现,基本医疗保险参与能显著增强居民家庭经济韧性,并且这一结果具有稳健性。改善家庭成员健康状况和减轻家庭医疗负担是基本医疗保险参与增强居民家庭经济韧性的重要渠道。按照基本医疗保险发挥边际效果的特征,居民家庭可划分为高效型、低效型、无效型等类型,其中无效型和低效型家庭经济韧性较强、医疗负担较低。随着居民家庭经济韧性的增强,基本医疗保险参与的边际效果逐渐下降。低收入家庭基本医疗保险参与增强居民家庭经济韧性的效果最显著,高收入家庭则无显著效果。

贵州省北盘江流域经济贫困与生态脆弱性的空间耦合关系研究

为研究北盘江流域经济贫困与生态环境之间的空间耦合关系,揭示其空间格局,基于遥感数据及统计资料,构建北盘江流域乡镇单元的经济贫困与生态脆弱性的评价体系,采用耦合协调度模型,对经济贫困与生态脆弱性的空间格局及耦合特征进行综合分析。结果表明:1)研究区中度贫困以上的乡镇占全部乡镇的40.54%,贫困程度较重的乡镇主要分布于东南部、中部及六盘水一带的西北部地区,有一定聚集性。2)生态脆弱性等级空间分布差异明显,由东至西生态脆弱程度愈加严重。中度以上脆弱性的乡镇仅占全部乡镇的30.41%,生态脆弱程度处于偏低水平,各类型分布具有明显的集中性。3)耦合协调类型占全部乡镇的83.24%,处于优良的耦合协调状态,耦合协调差异类型分布连片且集中,失调差异类型主要分布于研究区东部。研究可为区域经济发展与环境改善提供一定理论支持,为区域可持续发展提供科学参考。

包容性增长:技术进步推动共同富裕的条件机制——来自全球宏观面板数据的证据

现代信息通信技术(ICTs)发展是科技革命和产业进步的重要表征,对经济社会发展的作用日益突出。基于1990-2019年158个国家和地区的全球面板数据,探索ICTs和国家减贫的影响机理,进而从包容性视角出发分析ICTs发展对推动社会共同富裕的作用机制,研究发现:ICTs发展显著降低一国的绝对贫困和相对多维贫困,且减贫的边际效应具有U型特征。同时,ICTs对国家减贫的边际贡献在不同区域呈现差异化特征,并随时间推移而逐渐递减。ICTs借助促进经济增长和改善收入分配两条路径影响国家贫困治理,说明在兼顾效率和公平、实现包容性发展的基础上,ICTs进步最终有助于促进不同国家的共同富裕。

共同富裕背景下互联网使用的资本积累 效应与城乡居民的相对贫困缓解

促进全社会共享互联网发展红利是相对贫困治理和共同富裕的重要路径。互联网的人力资本、社会资本和经济资本积累效应是促进相对贫困缓解的重要机制,也是实现共同富裕的基石。基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2017年数据,运用有调节的中介效应模型和门槛效应模型,分城乡设定贫困标准,并对比互联网减贫效应的城乡差异。结果发现:互联网使用能缓解个体的相对贫困,且对农村居民的作用大于城镇居民,采用工具变量模型克服内生性问题后结果依然稳健。进一步的机制分析发现,互联网使用能将线上资源转化为线下的人力资本、社会资本和经济资本,进而缓解相对贫困。其中,互联网使用积累的人力资本对城镇居民的减贫效应更强,经济资本对农村居民的减贫效应更强。同时,互联网使用的减贫效应存在人力资本、经济资本和社会资本的门槛条件,且门槛值存在城乡差异。建议进一步提升农村居民的互联网普及率,强化互联网的人力资本积累作用,加强对城镇贫困居民和农村“贫困边缘群体”的关注。

发展贫困视角下经济效率的空间差异及驱动因素研究——基于云南省40个生态脆弱县的数据

基于云南省40个生态脆弱县的全样本数据,运用DEA-BCC模型、Moran’s I指数、地理加权回归模型探究云南省生态脆弱县经济效率的空间属性和影响因素,为提升区域抵御内外部风险能力,稳定脱贫成效,加快乡村振兴步伐,步入高质量发展之列服务。研究结果表明:(1)云南省40个生态脆弱县的平均经济效率处于中上水平,其中乌蒙山区和滇西边境山区的经济效率较低。(2)云南省生态脆弱县经济效率的空间集聚性弱,近似随机分布,且生态脆弱县主要分布在云南省边缘地带。(3)县域经济效率主要受到务工人口数占比、村集体收入、人均耕地面积等的影响,尽管不同区域的主导因素有所区别,但经济发展总体处于“U”型关系的前端,县域规模效益还未彰显。由此建议通过进一步提高帮扶投入精准度,加强普通教育、职业教育和技能培训,壮大集体经济,推进县域经济效率的提升。

数字普惠金融对西部经济增长的影响

利用2011—2020年西部地区12个省区市的面板数据,从数字普惠金融指数与其子维度支付、保险、信贷、数字化程度五个方面研究数字普惠金融对西部地区经济增长的影响。结果表明:数字普惠金融及各子维度指标对西部地区经济增长均具有正向积极作用;利用R2分解4个子维度指标对西部经济增长的影响的相对重要程度,从大到小排序为信贷、支付、保险、数字化程度;相比于西南地区,数字普惠金融对西北地区经济增长的显著正向作用更强;数字普惠金融通过促进消费升级、减少贫困来促进西部地区的经济增长。

贫困与脆弱生态环境的耦合关系研究——基于青藏高原高寒农业区14个县(市)的分析

文章以青藏高原高寒农业区14个县(市)为研究对象,构建了经济贫困与生态环境评价指标体系,分析了研究区经济贫困与脆弱生态环境的耦合关系。结果表明:(1)青藏高原高寒农业区脆弱生态环境和贫困耦合协调度整体呈上升状态,受政策调整等因素的影响呈现失调衰退贫困轻度滞后、失调衰退生态环境轻度滞后、过度调和贫困轻度滞后、过度调和生态环境轻度滞后四个不同阶段。(2)2011-2018年青藏高原高寒农业区的生态环境-贫困耦合协调度D从0.312 0增加到0.642 9,协调类型从失调衰退类转化为协调发展类。研究结果可为青藏高原区域经济发展与可持续发展提供参考。

马克思反贫困视域下的共同富裕及其当代启示

作为中国共产党人的百年夙愿,消灭社会贫困与实现共同富裕贯穿于中国式现代化的伟大进程中。梳理马克思关于二者关系的讨论,对于中国相对贫困治理与共同富裕事业具有重要现实意义。马克思从批判资本主义制度的原则高度澄清了资本主义私有制与雇佣劳动是现代贫困的真正根源,指明资本主义社会存在绝对贫困和相对贫困两大悖论性贫困,因此消灭两大贫困必须超越资本及其逻辑。马克思的反贫困哲学同时内蕴着共同富裕的实现路径,即以坚持社会主义为基本前提,以构建公平正义为重要保障。中国化反贫困与共同富裕协同发展的有机组合,将马克思思想推进到新的理论高度。

精准扶贫、人口流动与地区经济差距

本文利用县域面板数据结合2000—2020年人口普查资料,系统考察了精准扶贫对地区经济差距的影响,以及人口流动在其中的角色扮演。结果显示,精准扶贫政策的实施确实有助于缩小地区经济差距,但效果相对有限。一个重要的原因在于,精准扶贫存在加速贫困县常住人口流失的倾向,而常住人口流失扩大了地区经济差距。进一步研究显示,贫困县人口流失对地区经济差距的激发作用明显强于其他地区;对于处在城市群或南方地区的贫困县,精准扶贫在降低其与其他地区经济差距中的作用更为明显;对于处在城市群或北方地区的贫困县,精准扶贫导致其流失更多常住人口。本文为认识精准扶贫的经济作用及其要素配置效应,优化后扶贫时代脱贫地区扶持策略提供了经验证据,但本文仅是对精准扶贫经济效应的短期评估,其经济潜力仍需长期观察。

巩固脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接案例分析——基于洛川县苹果产业发展的思考

党的二十大报告指出,全面建设社会主义现代化国家,最艰巨最繁重的任务仍然在农村。我国目前正处于巩固脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的关键期,坚持农业农村优先发展,加大特色产业转型升级力度,对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,全面推进乡村振兴具有重要意义。选取洛川县苹果产业实地调研,通过问卷调查、走访农户搜集数据,利用定量研究方法对当地经济发展与脱贫成效满意度进行深入分析,有利于进一步阻断返贫风险,助推洛川县特色生态产业的健康发展,也为巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接提供了新的发展思路。

论从合作化运动到脱贫攻坚战的文学叙事

新中国成立初期的合作化运动和新时代的脱贫攻坚战是社会主义农村在不同阶段的历史任务。文学叙事对它们的描绘,反映的是以“合作”为基础的带有普遍意义的对美好生活的渴求。两者的差别在于:合作化叙事的重点是政治主导下的“乌托邦”想象,脱贫攻坚叙事的重点是经济主导下的现实性感召。叙事重点的转变,表明农村现代化建设模式的改变。以乡村振兴和生态旅游为基础的乡土叙事的兴起,是乡土文学“在地性”的回归,也彰显了现代城市人怀旧、怀乡的思潮。

中国反贫困政策的减贫效应研究:来自国家扶贫改革试验区的经验证据

我国脱贫攻坚战虽已取得全面胜利,但相对贫困依然存在,还需巩固脱贫攻坚成果,并与乡村振兴战略有效衔接。2013年和2015年设立的“国家扶贫改革试验区”旨在为进一步完善开发式反贫困政策、推进乡村振兴和帮扶提供示范经验,因而检验该政策效果并从中提取经验对于健全帮扶工作具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。选取广东省、浙江省、江苏省、山东省、福建省五省2001年—2020年308个区县(县级市)的面板数据,使用双重差分法(DID)识别“国家扶贫改革试验区”的设立对地区增长的促进作用。研究发现,“国家扶贫改革试验区”的设立显著促进了县区经济发展,经过多种识别假定检验和稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。进一步研究表明,这一政策对周边邻近地区会产生正向溢出效应,异质性分析得出该政策对少数民族区县的经济拉动作用大于非少数民族区县,财政依赖程度越高的区县该政策效果越明显,分省份进行检验后发现江苏和浙江的政策效果要强于福建和山东。此外机制检验表明,“国家扶贫改革试验区”的设立通过产业帮扶和提高农民收入水平的方式来间接推动当地经济发展。