Case Study of the Ways Private Equity Funds Apply to Dodge Capital-flow Control

In this article,several cases are cited to demonstrate how foreign private equity firms circumvent Chinese government restrictions on capital flows and investing in strategic and sensitive sectors. Speci cally,private equities investing in Chinese companies to be listed abroad can use the Red-chip,Sheng Da or overseas option models. Private equities investing in domestically-listed Chinese companies can resort to foreign-funded banks,underground banking,stock-holder borrowing,stocks held by the third party,equity bonds or local investment company purchases.

Capital Account Liberalization and International Corporate Bond Issuance:Transaction-level Evidence from China

This paper provides transaction-level evidence about the impact of capital account liberalization on firms'bond issuance in the international financial market.Using bond issuance data for firms headquartered in China between 2014 and 2018,we showed that domestic private firms issued more bonds abroad than foreign-invested enterprises afier restrictions were largely relaxed,controlling for possible confounding shocks such as monetary policy,local credit market shocks,US interest rate,carry trade,and global uncertainty shocks measured by the Chicago Board Option Exchange's Volatility Index.We found that domestic firms did not increase the overall volume of bond issuance but just had a higher portion of international bond issuance.We also found that domestic firms with higher tangible asset ratios tended to issue more bonds abroad.Our results suggest that targeted liberalization policy could effectively stimulate firms to issue bonds abroad.Policymakers need to monitor closely firms that issue more bonds abroad and thus have greater exposure to global shocks,incorporate these financial risks into policy design,and safeguard financial stability more effectively.

扩大金融领域制度型开放的运行机理、现实风险和实施路径

扩大金融领域制度型开放是开放型经济发展的必然要求,是实现国民经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的重要保证。以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,结合数字科技产业发展与中国积极加入CPTPP、DEPA的趋势要求,以国际高标准规则和中国金融开放的问题为导向,厘清金融领域制度型开放的瓶颈和基于RTA规则的差距,从金融服务业务、金融市场和资本账户等领域分析扩大金融领域制度型开放的运行机理和现实风险,并在此基础上提出金融领域制度型开放有序扩大的长中短期目标、实施路径、战略规划和方案设计。文章的研究为中国克服金融开放瓶颈,推进“金融深化”,建设金融强国,建立和完善中国特色的自主性开放型金融理论知识体系提供有益贡献。

资本账户开放对企业投资效率的影响研究

依据2001—2017年95个国家的上市企业数据,考量资本账户开放对企业投资效率的作用。结果显示:资本账户开放能提高企业投资效率,缓解投资不足,抑制过度投资;机制检验表明,资本账户开放通过提高市场竞争、缓解融资约束以及提高风险承担水平三个渠道提高企业投资效率。异质性检验显示,流入方向的资本账户开放对企业投资效率的提升更大,资本账户开放主要提高了金融市场发展程度高的国家、外部融资依赖度高的行业以及高杠杆率企业的投资效率。鉴于此,建议有序开放资本账户,加快金融市场建设,积极融入全球资本市场发展。

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China＇s international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People ＇s Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China＇s gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country ＇s GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminb i real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.

Pain or Gain?Chinese Experience of Capital Account Liberalization

The neoclassical growth model predicts that capital account liberalization could potentially enhance economic performance;however, there is no consistent empirical evidence to support this positive association. Using a novel dataset of Chinese capital account openness, this paper demonstrates a positive relationship between capital account liberalization and aggregate economic performance. The difference-indifferences method is used to capture the causal effect of capital account liberalization on economic performance by taking advantage of variations in both external financial dependence and the progress of capital account openness. We investigate three channels that could strengthen this positive relationship using a firm-level dataset. We find that capital account liberalization could:(i) alleviate the degree of resource misallocation, and this effect is more significant in industries relying heavily on external finance and in regions with more favorable business environments;(ii) enhance firms' total factor productivity;and (iii) promote innovation. Our findings suggest that a strategy of gradual openness will leave some leeway not only for improvement in domestic markets but also to mitigate exposure to unfavorable global shocks.

The Growth Effect of Capital Account Opening

Based on global data of 144 countries,this paper uses a panel data model to analyze the growth effect of capital-account opening.Furthermore,through the comparison of regressions of different income level,this paper also discusses the threshold effect and mechanism of capital-account opening.The empirical results show that,in the case of complete sample,capital-account opening has a negative effect on economic growth.However,according to the regressions of different income level,the income of 4500 dollar can be viewed as a dividing line,above which,capital-account opening does have a positive effect on economic growth.Furthermore,the results also imply that,it is through capital accumulation and deepening that capital-account opening influences economic growth.

自贸区金融创新对跨境人民币结算影响研究

自贸区设立的一个重要使命是金融创新,对跨境人民币结算具有重要影响。首先分析自贸区金融创新对跨境人民币结算的影响机理及路径,然后对上海、天津、福建、广东自贸区金融创新对跨境人民币结算的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)自贸区金融创新对跨境人民币结算具有促进作用,上海自贸区的影响最为显著且持续性强,其余自贸区影响的持续性有待提升;(2)资本账户开放和离岸金融中心建设在自贸区金融创新影响跨境人民币结算的机制中发挥完全中介作用。因此,自贸区应因地制宜推进金融创新,稳步有序开放资本账户、建设健全离岸金融中心以促进自贸区金融服务业发展。

资本账户双向开放下的长期经济平衡增长

我国资本账户开放日益深入,厘清资本账户开放的经济效应对实现经济健康可持续发展具有重要意义。基于TVP-SV-VAR模型和分位数回归模型,将前沿的经济在险增长研究框架引入资本账户双向开放的经济效益研究中,从金融稳定的视角深入探讨资本账户双向开放对长期经济平衡增长的影响。研究表明:(1)随着资本账户流入与流出的非同步开放,流入开放政策对经济增长的影响程度越来越小,而资本账户流出开放成为打通资本账户开放对经济增长促进机制的关键点;(2)双向资本账户开放会导致金融稳定性下降,但金融稳定对经济增长的影响则没有特定的模式;(3)资本账户双向开放对经济增长下行风险具有正向的直接影响,但会通过降低金融稳定性间接地加剧经济增长下行风险,且后者的影响程度更大。

“资本账户开放”与“金融开放”内在关系的剖析

目前,对于资本账户开放与金融开放的研究,学者们多从国际收支平衡和金融市场对外开放的角度分别展开讨论,而对两者之间内在关系的研究尚较少。本文分别从金融开放的主体、客体以及主体作用于客体的工具等角度出发,对资本账户开放与金融开放的内涵以及两者之间的关系进行了全面的剖析与比较。本文认为,无论是从主体、客体还是作用工具的角度,把资本账户开放视为金融开放的一部分将更为科学合理,也更为自然一些,这也将有利于人们对资本账户开放与金融开放的正确理解和把握。

资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系。实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率。

资本项目开放会引发货币危机吗?

本文运用MS-VAR模型研究中国2003年1月—2015年6月资本项目开放与货币危机间的关系。结果表明:整体而言,资本项目开放与货币危机之间存在正相关关系。在高风险条件下,资本项目开放对货币危机的影响越强;在低风险条件下,适度扩大短期资本开放程度有助于降低货币危机压力。样本期内人民币市场大部分时间都处于低度和中度风险状态,处于高度风险状态的时间较短,这和中国经济整体运行情况基本符合。此外,货币危机发出高风险预警信号的期间,大多伴随着利率汇率的大幅波动、快速频繁的资本流动以及FDI和外债余额的急剧增长,表明资本项目开放存在较高的风险隐患。

资本项目开放轨迹及其经济增长促进

在中国渐进式开放资本项目的背景下,从早期具有显著差异的研究结果入手,进而分研究方法、调节变量和理论框架三个角度就资本项目开放能否促进经济增长这一命题的经典文献进行回顾。梳理最近十几年来二者关系研究的发展脉络表明,事实开放的测度方法比法定开放的方法能够更为准确和灵敏地衡量一国资本项目开放的程度。在开放过程中,对B股市场和QFII对经济增长或者对产业推动效果的检验,完善相关的监管体制,指定合理有效的掌控政策,提升中国整体的金融发展水平。这些都将对有效平稳地开放资本项目具有重要的现实意义。

再论人民币汇率形成机制改革及其若干问题

人民币汇率形成机制改革的进程突然加速,但是人们对汇改的路径选择缺乏清晰的认识,人民币汇率弹性、资本账户开放以及人民币国际化等问题上争论仍然不断。本文认为,当前人民币汇率改革争论的实质是未能弄清中国经济发展阶段,所谓渐进式改革和激进式改革并非非此即彼相互矛盾的关系。目前人民币汇率改革应介于中度和中深度之间,脱离这个阶段短期要么造成国内经济的失衡,要么导致国内经济均衡下的大衰退。另外,本文也认为汇率弹性并不能以汇率幅度为标准,资本账户自由化也必须按步推进。在人民币国际化问题上,我们对其步骤、问题和模式也作了详细分析,对一些概念上的误区给予说明。我们相信,对诸多问题的清晰认识必将有助于推进人民币汇率形成机制的改革,稳定国内金融体系,保证经济的可持续发展。

资本账户开放对汇率波动和股市收益的影响研究——基于日本1998～2011年的数据

利用日本1998~2011年的月度数据,通过构建股市收益率、实际汇率变动以及短期资本净流入的三元结构的SVAR模型,对上述三变量之间的动态关系进行定量分析。结果表明：在资本账户开放后,短期资本存在套利和套汇的现象,短期资本流入会导致股指走低,却使得实际有效汇率小幅走高;日本股市虽然受到汇率和资本流动的影响,但影响有限;短期资本流动对国内国际变化较为敏感,应谨慎开放资本项目。此外,在推进资本账户开放的过程中,应同时推进汇率形成机制的市场化。

美联储QE政策退出对我国经常账户的影响

美元的全球中心货币地位使美联储货币政策具有显著的外部溢出效应,其政策退出和政策正常化会通过国际资本流动、汇率和进出口渠道对新兴经济体产生影响,文章尝试评估了美国QE政策退出对我国经常账户的影响。基于符号限制的贝叶斯VAR模型的研究结果表明,美联储QE政策退出会导致我国经常账户顺差减少,并且影响持续时间相当长,表明我国同样面临与其他新兴市场国家相同的危机前兆。因此,政府需要转变发展方式,扩大内需;实施创新驱动战略,提高本国企业和产品在国际市场上的竞争力;同时逐步放开资本项目管制,构建稳定人民币汇率的"池子"机制,严格控制外债规模以及积极参与区域和全球金融安全网建设。

中国资本账户及各管制项目开放程度的测度研究

资本账户开放是加速我国经济转型和刺激经济增长的新动力。基于法定和事实两个层面,通过改进的研究方法,对中国1999—2013年资本账户的整体开放情况以及各具体管制项目的开放程度分别进行测算研究,结果发现:近年来我国资本账户法定层面的放松有效地带动了事实层面的开放,整体呈现出更加开放的趋势,并在现阶段已处于一个中等偏上的开放水平。资金流入与流出的管制基本保持了同步调的放松趋势。直接投资和其他投资领域开放程度相对较高,资本项目中的房地产交易限制开放趋势显著,私人资本流动的管制则开放步伐相对平缓,证券投资仍处于管制最为严格的领域。因此,应积极改善直接投资的效率和结构,提高资本项目和证券投资项目开放程度,以开放促进改革,并充分发挥"两个市场、两种资源"的积极作用。

中国资本项目开放的测度

资本项目开放的测度问题是研究所有资本项目开放的基础性问题,至关重要。目前,国际上主要有约束式和开放式两大类测度方法,它们各有利弊,互为补充。在借鉴海外学术界各种测度方法的基础上,构建符合中国特点的开放式和准约束式的测度指标,对中国的资本项目开放程度进行测度后可以发现,中国目前的资本项目开放处于中等开放的水平。