For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capabilit...For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capability completely?Will the US resolve the issue with force?Can the DPRK collapse under maximum pressure?On the other hand,what could happen if Six-Party Talks resumed and the international community would“acquiesce”in a nuclear DPRK?Arguing the slippery slope that others in Northeast Asia will become nuclear is delusional:Japan and the ROK are unlikely to join the nuclear arms race.The most plausible next step is that the DPRK holds on to its hard-won nuclear capability,the international community acquiesces,and Six-Party Talks resume.It is an opportunity for China to play a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue and advancing Northeast Asian diplomacy.展开更多
The relation between the United States and the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） is of substantial strategic prominence in the security landscape of Northeast Asia. The longstanding incompatibility betwe...The relation between the United States and the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） is of substantial strategic prominence in the security landscape of Northeast Asia. The longstanding incompatibility between the two countries can be illuminated by drawing on three factors： the conflict of interest in the DPRK-ROK unification; the strategic interests of the nuclearization and the denuclearization-normalization dilemma; the Sino-U.S. dual power structure in Northeast Asia. In addressing these issues, this paper discusses the possibility of achieving diplomatic normalization between the U.S. and DPRK by examining in a comparative framework the feasibility of existing mechanisms. The paper concludes that unconventional mechanism is required to establish the initial momentum for a necessary political breakthrough, especially in light of the Trump phenomenon. Specifically, the author proposes a stepwise model to assist the diplomatic reconciliation and to further promote the restoration of peace, security and stability in Northeast Asia.展开更多
基金the phased result of a research project International Security Governance and New Type of International Relations (Project No. 3262016T01),sponsored by the University of International Relations
文摘For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capability completely?Will the US resolve the issue with force?Can the DPRK collapse under maximum pressure?On the other hand,what could happen if Six-Party Talks resumed and the international community would“acquiesce”in a nuclear DPRK?Arguing the slippery slope that others in Northeast Asia will become nuclear is delusional:Japan and the ROK are unlikely to join the nuclear arms race.The most plausible next step is that the DPRK holds on to its hard-won nuclear capability,the international community acquiesces,and Six-Party Talks resume.It is an opportunity for China to play a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue and advancing Northeast Asian diplomacy.
文摘The relation between the United States and the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） is of substantial strategic prominence in the security landscape of Northeast Asia. The longstanding incompatibility between the two countries can be illuminated by drawing on three factors： the conflict of interest in the DPRK-ROK unification; the strategic interests of the nuclearization and the denuclearization-normalization dilemma; the Sino-U.S. dual power structure in Northeast Asia. In addressing these issues, this paper discusses the possibility of achieving diplomatic normalization between the U.S. and DPRK by examining in a comparative framework the feasibility of existing mechanisms. The paper concludes that unconventional mechanism is required to establish the initial momentum for a necessary political breakthrough, especially in light of the Trump phenomenon. Specifically, the author proposes a stepwise model to assist the diplomatic reconciliation and to further promote the restoration of peace, security and stability in Northeast Asia.
