An ocean-atmosphere and land-air coupled numerical model system is used to study the basic properties and the monthly time variations of the summer quasi-stationary circulation systems. It is found that either at the ...An ocean-atmosphere and land-air coupled numerical model system is used to study the basic properties and the monthly time variations of the summer quasi-stationary circulation systems. It is found that either at the upper or at the lower levels of the atmosphere, the circulation patterns have a two-wave structure in the zonal direction at the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Such a structure of circulation is totally matchable to that of the land-sea distribution there. It is proved, hence, that the land-sea distributive pattern is the fundamental cause for the summer quasi-stationary circulation pattern. The topography in the globe is the secondary factor for circulation systems. The circulation centres of the quasi-stationary systems are always located in certain areas due to the thermodynamic contrast between land and sea.From the time evolutions of the circulation systems it is seen that the change is larger at the beginning period of the time integration, it is because of using the zonally averaged mean fields as the initial values of the model. As long as the basic simulated pattern of circulations reaches the state similar to that of the real climatic fields resulting from the coeffects of the land-sea distribution and the topography, the circulation systems modelled will change slowly and tend to a quasi-stationary state. Therefore, the time integration does not need to last for a very long time, if the purpose of numerical modellings is to test sensitivities of some factors influencing the climate, 20 model days may be enough for sensitive experiments.展开更多
In this paper, we analyze the quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic <em>SVIR</em> (Susceptible, Vaccinated, Infected, Recovered) model for the measles. The quasi-stationary distributions, as disc...In this paper, we analyze the quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic <em>SVIR</em> (Susceptible, Vaccinated, Infected, Recovered) model for the measles. The quasi-stationary distributions, as discussed by Danoch and Seneta, have been used in biology to describe the steady state behaviour of population models which exhibit discernible stationarity before to become extinct. The stochastic <em>SVIR</em> model is a stochastic <em>SIR</em> (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model with vaccination and recruitment where the disease-free equilibrium is reached, regardless of the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. But the mean time until the absorption (the disease-free) can be very long. If we assume the effective reproduction number <em>R</em><em><sub>p</sub></em> < 1 or <img src="Edit_67da0b97-83f9-42ef-8a00-a13da2d59963.bmp" alt="" />, the quasi-stationary distribution can be closely approximated by geometric distribution. <em>β</em> and <em>δ</em> stands respectively, for the disease transmission coefficient and the natural rate.展开更多
The purpose of this article is to obtain the quasi-stationary distributions of the δ（δ 〈 2）-dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ by using the methods of Martinez and San Martin （2001...The purpose of this article is to obtain the quasi-stationary distributions of the δ（δ 〈 2）-dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ by using the methods of Martinez and San Martin （2001）. It is described that the law of this process conditioned on first hitting 0 is just the probability measure induced by a （4 - δ）- dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ. Moreover, it is shown that the law of the conditioned process associated with the left eigenfunction of the process conditioned on first hitting 0 is induced by a one-parameter diffusion.展开更多
This paper presents a case study of mesoscale convective band （MCB） development along a quasi-stationary front over the Seout metropolitan area.The MCB,which initiated on 1500 UTC 20 September 2010 and ended on 1400...This paper presents a case study of mesoscale convective band （MCB） development along a quasi-stationary front over the Seout metropolitan area.The MCB,which initiated on 1500 UTC 20 September 2010 and ended on 1400 UTC 21 September 2010,produced a total precipitation amount of 259.5 mm.The MCB development occurred during a period of tropopause folding in the upper level and moisture advection with a low-level jet.The analyses show that the evolution of the MCB can be classified into five periods：（1） the cell-forming period,when convection initiated; （2） the frontogenetic period,when the stationary front formed over the Korean peninsula; （3） the quasi-stationary period,when the convective band remained over Seoul for 3 h; （4） the mature period,when the cloud cover was largest and the precipitation rate was greater than 90 mm h-1; and （5） the dissipating period,when the MCB diminished and disappeared.The synoptic,thermodynamic,and dynamic analyses show that the MCB maintained its longevity by a tilted updraft,which headed towards a positive PV anomaly.Precipitation was concentrated under this area,where a tilted ascending southwesterly converged with a tilted ascending northeasterly,at the axis of cyclonic rotation.The formation of the convective cell was attributed in part by tropopause folding,which enhanced the cyclonic vorticity at the surface,and by the low-level convergence of warm moist air and upperlevel divergence.The southwesterly flow ascended in a region with high moisture content and strong relative vorticity that maintained the development of an MCB along the quasi-stationary front.展开更多
This paper investigates the problem of almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of quasi-stationary sequence based on the result of Turkman and Walker. We prove an almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of a class...This paper investigates the problem of almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of quasi-stationary sequence based on the result of Turkman and Walker. We prove an almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of a class of quasi-stationary sequence under weak dependence conditions of D （uk, un） and αtm,ln = 0 （（log log n）-（1＋ε））.展开更多
The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing m...The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.展开更多
25 November 2009 is an unforgettable day for the people in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On that day, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone following a short heavy rainfall event t...25 November 2009 is an unforgettable day for the people in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On that day, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone following a short heavy rainfall event that triggered flash floods leaving 122 fatalities and considerable losses. Numerical experiments using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric research mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) have been performed to investigate the event. It was caused by a short quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system that developed over Jeddah and lasted for about 8 hours. Rainfall totals computed by the model exceeded 400 mmin some localities in the southern part of Jeddah city and to the north of Jeddah in Thuwal city. The limited available observed rainfall totals, atKingAbdulAzizInternationalAirportand wadiQaws rain gauges, and Jeddah’s weather radar observations corroborates the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainfall event. A synoptic environment characterized by warmRed Seasurface temperatures and high humidity in the low levels of the troposphere. A stationary anticyclone centered over the southeast of theArabian Peninsulaconcentrated the water vapour flow to a narrow passage over Jeddah. Simulation results suggested that the development of a mesolow by latent heat release, as well as cyclogenesis induced by Al Hejaz escarpments, could have played an important role in enhancing the event by providing low-level convergence and enhanced upslope winds, and upper level atmospheric instability.展开更多
云贵—华南准静止锋使其以北地区成为研究冬季雨雪过渡区内不同降水相态的理想平台。通过对2018年1月25—27日南方凝冻天气过程中天气学和云微物理参数的分析,定性探讨了次冻结层的温度与冰核活化温度对不同降水相态形成的影响,进而利...云贵—华南准静止锋使其以北地区成为研究冬季雨雪过渡区内不同降水相态的理想平台。通过对2018年1月25—27日南方凝冻天气过程中天气学和云微物理参数的分析,定性探讨了次冻结层的温度与冰核活化温度对不同降水相态形成的影响,进而利用耦合BTC降水相态诊断方案(简称“BTC方案”)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,对本次凝冻天气的降水相态、冻雨发生区域与冻雨量进行数值模拟。结果表明:横贯云贵高原和南岭地区的准静止锋导致的锋前“冷—暖—冷”的温度垂直结构有利于多相态降水的形成。耦合BTC方案的WRF模式可模拟出不同降水相态落区的空间分布,其模拟冻雨落区时空分布与观测基本一致,但冰粒的空报率非常高。分析WRF模式模拟的多相态降水时温度、相对湿度和水成物的垂直分布特征,云内水成物初始相态为液态,在高空逆温层存在的前提下,次冻结层中冰核活化温度是区分冻雨和冰粒的临界指标且具有明确的物理机制。利用次冻结层中的冰核活化温度来代替BTC方案中有关冻雨和冰粒的判据后,冻雨落区预报准确率较BTC方案提高了13%,表明直接利用次冻结层的冰核活化温度判断冻雨可行。展开更多
云贵高原的冻雨是中国南方冬季最严重的气象灾害。利用天气研究和预报模式(weather research and forecasting model, WRF),对云贵高原大地形进行了敏感性实验,模拟了不同地形高度对大气环流、云微物理参量及冻雨分布的影响,结果显示:...云贵高原的冻雨是中国南方冬季最严重的气象灾害。利用天气研究和预报模式(weather research and forecasting model, WRF),对云贵高原大地形进行了敏感性实验,模拟了不同地形高度对大气环流、云微物理参量及冻雨分布的影响,结果显示:随着云贵高原大地形的抬升,准静止锋的锋线一直维持在24°N附近,但锋面越来越陡,表明高原大地形是形成云贵准静止锋的主要因素,准静止锋长时间滞留在贵州中东部和湖南西部,是该区冻雨高发的原因。随着高原的抬升,从全境的云滴碰并增长逐渐在高原东部出现冰晶融化过程,高原主体上的冻雨以过冷暖雨机制为主,而低海拔的东部地区以融化机制为主。随着高原抬升,高空逆温层及冻雨区均从贵州西北向贵州中部及东部地区移动,逆温层的存在及其冷-暖-冷的垂直结构是冻雨形成非常重要的因子。当云贵高原降至原地形的一半时,冻雨量最大,其后随着高原抬升,冻雨量开始减少。该研究有助于更深入了解云贵高原大地形对冻雨形成、范围和强度的影响机制。展开更多
基金Supported by National Fundamental Key Research Project:"Studies on dynamic climate and climate prediction theory".
文摘An ocean-atmosphere and land-air coupled numerical model system is used to study the basic properties and the monthly time variations of the summer quasi-stationary circulation systems. It is found that either at the upper or at the lower levels of the atmosphere, the circulation patterns have a two-wave structure in the zonal direction at the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Such a structure of circulation is totally matchable to that of the land-sea distribution there. It is proved, hence, that the land-sea distributive pattern is the fundamental cause for the summer quasi-stationary circulation pattern. The topography in the globe is the secondary factor for circulation systems. The circulation centres of the quasi-stationary systems are always located in certain areas due to the thermodynamic contrast between land and sea.From the time evolutions of the circulation systems it is seen that the change is larger at the beginning period of the time integration, it is because of using the zonally averaged mean fields as the initial values of the model. As long as the basic simulated pattern of circulations reaches the state similar to that of the real climatic fields resulting from the coeffects of the land-sea distribution and the topography, the circulation systems modelled will change slowly and tend to a quasi-stationary state. Therefore, the time integration does not need to last for a very long time, if the purpose of numerical modellings is to test sensitivities of some factors influencing the climate, 20 model days may be enough for sensitive experiments.
文摘In this paper, we analyze the quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic <em>SVIR</em> (Susceptible, Vaccinated, Infected, Recovered) model for the measles. The quasi-stationary distributions, as discussed by Danoch and Seneta, have been used in biology to describe the steady state behaviour of population models which exhibit discernible stationarity before to become extinct. The stochastic <em>SVIR</em> model is a stochastic <em>SIR</em> (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model with vaccination and recruitment where the disease-free equilibrium is reached, regardless of the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. But the mean time until the absorption (the disease-free) can be very long. If we assume the effective reproduction number <em>R</em><em><sub>p</sub></em> < 1 or <img src="Edit_67da0b97-83f9-42ef-8a00-a13da2d59963.bmp" alt="" />, the quasi-stationary distribution can be closely approximated by geometric distribution. <em>β</em> and <em>δ</em> stands respectively, for the disease transmission coefficient and the natural rate.
文摘The purpose of this article is to obtain the quasi-stationary distributions of the δ（δ 〈 2）-dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ by using the methods of Martinez and San Martin （2001）. It is described that the law of this process conditioned on first hitting 0 is just the probability measure induced by a （4 - δ）- dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ. Moreover, it is shown that the law of the conditioned process associated with the left eigenfunction of the process conditioned on first hitting 0 is induced by a one-parameter diffusion.
基金funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant CATER 2012-2072
文摘This paper presents a case study of mesoscale convective band （MCB） development along a quasi-stationary front over the Seout metropolitan area.The MCB,which initiated on 1500 UTC 20 September 2010 and ended on 1400 UTC 21 September 2010,produced a total precipitation amount of 259.5 mm.The MCB development occurred during a period of tropopause folding in the upper level and moisture advection with a low-level jet.The analyses show that the evolution of the MCB can be classified into five periods：（1） the cell-forming period,when convection initiated; （2） the frontogenetic period,when the stationary front formed over the Korean peninsula; （3） the quasi-stationary period,when the convective band remained over Seoul for 3 h; （4） the mature period,when the cloud cover was largest and the precipitation rate was greater than 90 mm h-1; and （5） the dissipating period,when the MCB diminished and disappeared.The synoptic,thermodynamic,and dynamic analyses show that the MCB maintained its longevity by a tilted updraft,which headed towards a positive PV anomaly.Precipitation was concentrated under this area,where a tilted ascending southwesterly converged with a tilted ascending northeasterly,at the axis of cyclonic rotation.The formation of the convective cell was attributed in part by tropopause folding,which enhanced the cyclonic vorticity at the surface,and by the low-level convergence of warm moist air and upperlevel divergence.The southwesterly flow ascended in a region with high moisture content and strong relative vorticity that maintained the development of an MCB along the quasi-stationary front.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11171275)the Natural Science Foundation Project of CQ(cstc2012jjA00029)Liaocheng University Foundation(X09005)
文摘This paper investigates the problem of almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of quasi-stationary sequence based on the result of Turkman and Walker. We prove an almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of a class of quasi-stationary sequence under weak dependence conditions of D （uk, un） and αtm,ln = 0 （（log log n）-（1＋ε））.
基金financially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421 401)
文摘The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.
文摘25 November 2009 is an unforgettable day for the people in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On that day, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone following a short heavy rainfall event that triggered flash floods leaving 122 fatalities and considerable losses. Numerical experiments using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric research mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) have been performed to investigate the event. It was caused by a short quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system that developed over Jeddah and lasted for about 8 hours. Rainfall totals computed by the model exceeded 400 mmin some localities in the southern part of Jeddah city and to the north of Jeddah in Thuwal city. The limited available observed rainfall totals, atKingAbdulAzizInternationalAirportand wadiQaws rain gauges, and Jeddah’s weather radar observations corroborates the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainfall event. A synoptic environment characterized by warmRed Seasurface temperatures and high humidity in the low levels of the troposphere. A stationary anticyclone centered over the southeast of theArabian Peninsulaconcentrated the water vapour flow to a narrow passage over Jeddah. Simulation results suggested that the development of a mesolow by latent heat release, as well as cyclogenesis induced by Al Hejaz escarpments, could have played an important role in enhancing the event by providing low-level convergence and enhanced upslope winds, and upper level atmospheric instability.
文摘云贵—华南准静止锋使其以北地区成为研究冬季雨雪过渡区内不同降水相态的理想平台。通过对2018年1月25—27日南方凝冻天气过程中天气学和云微物理参数的分析,定性探讨了次冻结层的温度与冰核活化温度对不同降水相态形成的影响,进而利用耦合BTC降水相态诊断方案(简称“BTC方案”)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,对本次凝冻天气的降水相态、冻雨发生区域与冻雨量进行数值模拟。结果表明:横贯云贵高原和南岭地区的准静止锋导致的锋前“冷—暖—冷”的温度垂直结构有利于多相态降水的形成。耦合BTC方案的WRF模式可模拟出不同降水相态落区的空间分布,其模拟冻雨落区时空分布与观测基本一致,但冰粒的空报率非常高。分析WRF模式模拟的多相态降水时温度、相对湿度和水成物的垂直分布特征,云内水成物初始相态为液态,在高空逆温层存在的前提下,次冻结层中冰核活化温度是区分冻雨和冰粒的临界指标且具有明确的物理机制。利用次冻结层中的冰核活化温度来代替BTC方案中有关冻雨和冰粒的判据后,冻雨落区预报准确率较BTC方案提高了13%,表明直接利用次冻结层的冰核活化温度判断冻雨可行。
文摘云贵高原的冻雨是中国南方冬季最严重的气象灾害。利用天气研究和预报模式(weather research and forecasting model, WRF),对云贵高原大地形进行了敏感性实验,模拟了不同地形高度对大气环流、云微物理参量及冻雨分布的影响,结果显示:随着云贵高原大地形的抬升,准静止锋的锋线一直维持在24°N附近,但锋面越来越陡,表明高原大地形是形成云贵准静止锋的主要因素,准静止锋长时间滞留在贵州中东部和湖南西部,是该区冻雨高发的原因。随着高原的抬升,从全境的云滴碰并增长逐渐在高原东部出现冰晶融化过程,高原主体上的冻雨以过冷暖雨机制为主,而低海拔的东部地区以融化机制为主。随着高原抬升,高空逆温层及冻雨区均从贵州西北向贵州中部及东部地区移动,逆温层的存在及其冷-暖-冷的垂直结构是冻雨形成非常重要的因子。当云贵高原降至原地形的一半时,冻雨量最大,其后随着高原抬升,冻雨量开始减少。该研究有助于更深入了解云贵高原大地形对冻雨形成、范围和强度的影响机制。
