Within this work,we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of the material input parameters on the pressure in an isotropic porous solid cylinder.We provide a step-by-step guide to obtain the analyt...Within this work,we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of the material input parameters on the pressure in an isotropic porous solid cylinder.We provide a step-by-step guide to obtain the analytical solution for a porous isotropic elastic cylinder in terms of the pressure,stresses,and elastic displacement.We obtain the solution by performing a Laplace transform on the governing equations,which are those of Biot's poroelasticity in cylindrical polar coordinates.We enforce radial boundary conditions and obtain the solution in the Laplace transformed domain before reverting back to the time domain.The sensitivity analysis is then carried out,considering only the derived pressure solution.This analysis finds that the time t,Biot's modulus M,and Poisson's ratio ν have the highest influence on the pressure whereas the initial value of pressure P_(0) plays a very little role.展开更多
During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and...During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and accumulation of hydrates further contribute to the obstruction of natural gas pipelines,resulting in production reduction,shutdowns,and pressure build-ups.Consequently,a cascade of risks is prone to occur.To address this issue,this study focuses on the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,where a comprehensive framework is established.This framework includes theoretical models for pipeline temperature distribution,pipeline pressure distribution,multiphase flow within the pipeline,hydrate blockage,and numerical solution methods.By analyzing the influence of inlet temperature,inlet pressure,and terminal pressure on hydrate formation within the pipeline,the sensitivity patterns of hydrate blockage risks are derived.The research indicates that reducing inlet pressure and terminal pressure could lead to a decreased maximum hydrate formation rate,potentially mitigating pipeline blockage during natural gas transportation.Furthermore,an increase in inlet temperature and terminal pressure,and a decrease in inlet pressure,results in a displacement of the most probable location for hydrate blockage towards the terminal station.However,it is crucial to note that operating under low-pressure conditions significantly elevates energy consumption within the gathering system,contradicting the operational goal of energy efficiency and reduction of energy consumption.Consequently,for high-pressure gathering pipelines,measures such as raising the inlet temperature or employing inhibitors,electrical heat tracing,and thermal insulation should be adopted to prevent hydrate formation during natural gas transportation.Moreover,considering abnormal conditions such as gas well production and pipeline network shutdowns,which could potentially trigger hydrate formation,the installation of methanol injection connectors remains necessary to ensure production safety.展开更多
Battery production is crucial for determining the quality of electrode,which in turn affects the manufactured battery performance.As battery production is complicated with strongly coupled intermediate and control par...Battery production is crucial for determining the quality of electrode,which in turn affects the manufactured battery performance.As battery production is complicated with strongly coupled intermediate and control parameters,an efficient solution that can perform a reliable sensitivity analysis of the production terms of interest and forecast key battery properties in the early production phase is urgently required.This paper performs detailed sensitivity analysis of key production terms on determining the properties of manufactured battery electrode via advanced data-driven modelling.To be specific,an explainable neural network named generalized additive model with structured interaction(GAM-SI)is designed to predict two key battery properties,including electrode mass loading and porosity,while the effects of four early production terms on manufactured batteries are explained and analysed.The experimental results reveal that the proposed method is able to accurately predict battery electrode properties in the mixing and coating stages.In addition,the importance ratio ranking,global interpretation and local interpretation of both the main effects and pairwise interactions can be effectively visualized by the designed neural network.Due to the merits of interpretability,the proposed GAM-SI can help engineers gain important insights for understanding complicated production behavior,further benefitting smart battery production.展开更多
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating du...Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.展开更多
This paper presents an engineering system approach using a 2D model of conservation of mass to study the dynamics of ozone and concerned chemical species in the stratosphere.By considering all fourteen photolysis,ozon...This paper presents an engineering system approach using a 2D model of conservation of mass to study the dynamics of ozone and concerned chemical species in the stratosphere.By considering all fourteen photolysis,ozone-generating,and-depleting chemical reactions,the model calculated the transient,spatial changes of ozone under different physical-chemical-radiative conditions.Validation against the measured data demonstrated good accuracy,close match of our model with the observed ozone concentrations at both 20°S and 90°N locations.The deviation in the average concentration was less than 1% and in ozone profiles less than 17%.The impacts of various chlorine-(Cl),nitrogen oxides-(NO_(x)),and bromine-(Br)depleting cycles on ozone concentrations and distribution were investigated.The chlorine catalytic depleting cycle was found to exhibit the most significant impact on ozone dynamics,confirming the key role of chlorine in the problem of ozone depletion.Sensitivity analysis was conducted with levels of 25%,50%,100%,200%,and 400% of the baseline value.The combined cycles(Cl+NO_(x)+Br)showed the most significant influence on ozone behavior.The total ozone abundance above the South Pole could decrease by a small 3%,from 281 DU(Dubson Units)to 273 DU for the 25% level,or by a huge thinning of 60%to 114 DU for the 400% concentration level.When the level of chlorine gases increased beyond 200%,it would cause ozone depletion to a level of ozone hole(below 220 DU).The 2D Ozone Model presented in this paper demonstrates robustness,convenience,efficiency,and executability for analyzing complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere.展开更多
This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand (SUEED) model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables...This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand (SUEED) model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables with respect to the perturbation parameters for the SUEED model. Then by taking advantage of the gradient-based method for sensitivity analysis of a general nonlinear program, detailed formulae are developed for calculating the derivatives of designed variables with respect to perturbation parameters at the equilibrium state of the SUEED model. This method is not only applicable for a sensitivity analysis of the logit-type SUEED problem, but also for the probit-type SUEED problem. The application of the proposed method in a numerical example shows that the proposed method can be used to approximate the equilibrium link flow solutions for both logit-type SUEED and probit-type SUEED problems when small perturbations are introduced in the input parameters.展开更多
For a detector in a capacitanee fuze working in an electrostatic field, the bomblength (effective length of the conductor part) is an important factor affecting the sensitivityof detection. For the two different kinds...For a detector in a capacitanee fuze working in an electrostatic field, the bomblength (effective length of the conductor part) is an important factor affecting the sensitivityof detection. For the two different kinds of detecting circuit models in general use (the frequency-sensitive and the amplitude-coupling ), mechanism of the effect of bomblength on the sensitvity of detection is analyzed. Through the analysis a conclusion in fullagreement with experimental results has been drawn, that is. the longer the bomb length,the higher the sensitivity, on the condition that the sizes and the sites of the detecting electrodes and bomb diameter remain unchanged.展开更多
By studying the Qinglong Mountain in southeastern suburb of Wuhan City, relevant information are obtained by applying GIS, weight of each index is acquired via Delphi method and AHP, then an evalution model is establi...By studying the Qinglong Mountain in southeastern suburb of Wuhan City, relevant information are obtained by applying GIS, weight of each index is acquired via Delphi method and AHP, then an evalution model is established for the assessment of comprehensive sensitivity, and finally eco-sensitive area of each level is determined to provide objective support for the ecological planning of Qinglong Mountain Scenic Area.展开更多
The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displa...The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displacement changes of the piston are ignored, even experiment verification is not conducted. Therefore, in view of deficiencies above, a nonlinear mathematical model is established in this paper, including dynamic characteristics of servo valve, nonlinear characteristics of pressure-flow, initial displacement of servo cylinder piston and friction nonlinearity. The transfer function block diagram is built for the hydraulic drive unit closed loop position control, as well as the state equations. Through deriving the time-varying coefficient items matrix and time-varying free items matrix of sensitivity equations respectively, the expression of sensitivity equations based on the nonlinear mathematical model are obtained. According to structure parameters of hydraulic drive unit, working parameters, fluid transmission characteristics and measured friction-velocity curves, the simulation analysis of hydraulic drive unit is completed on the MATLAB/Simulink simulation platform with the displacement step 2 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the developed nonlinear mathematical model is sufficient by comparing the characteristic curves of experimental step response and simulation step response under different constant load. Then, the sensitivity function time-history curves of seventeen parameters are obtained, basing on each state vector time-history curve of step response characteristic. The maximum value of displacement variation percentage and the sum of displacement variation absolute values in the sampling time are both taken as sensitivity indexes. The sensitivity indexes values above are calculated and shown visually in histograms under different working conditions, and change rules are analyzed. Then the sensitivity indexes values of four measurable parameters, such as supply pressure, proportional gain, initial position of servo cylinder piston and load force, are verified experimentally on test platform of hydraulic drive unit, and the experimental research shows that the sensitivity analysis results obtained through simulation are approximate to the test results. This research indicates each parameter sensitivity characteristics of hydraulic drive unit, the performance-affected main parameters and secondary parameters are got under different working conditions, which will provide the theoretical foundation for the control compensation and structure optimization of hydraulic drive unit.展开更多
A crop growth model,integrating genotype,environment,and management factor,was developed to serve as an analytical tool to study the influence of these factors on crop growth,production,and agricultural planning.A maj...A crop growth model,integrating genotype,environment,and management factor,was developed to serve as an analytical tool to study the influence of these factors on crop growth,production,and agricultural planning.A major challenge of model application is the optimization and calibration of a considerable number of parameters.Sensitivity analysis(SA) has become an effective method to identify the importance of various parameters.In this study,the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test(EFAST) approach was used to evaluate the sensitivity of the DSSAT-CERES model output responses of interest to 39 crop genotype parameters and six soil parameters.The outputs for the SA included grain yield and quality(take grain protein content(GPC) as an indicator) at maturity stage,as well as leaf area index,aboveground biomass,and aboveground nitrogen accumulation at the critical process variables.The key results showed that:(1) the influence of parameter bounds on the sensitivity results was slight and less than the impacts from the significance of the parameters themselves;(2) the sensitivity parameters of grain yield and GPC were different,and the sensitivity of the interactions between parameters to GPC was greater than those between the parameters to grain yield;and(3) the sensitivity analyses of some process variables,including leaf area index,aboveground biomass,and aboveground nitrogen accumulation,should be performed differently.Finally,some parameters,which improve the model’s structure and the accuracy of the process simulation,should not be ignored when maturity output as an objective variable is studied.展开更多
Parallel kinematic machines (PKMs) have the advantages of a compact structure,high stiffness,a low moving inertia,and a high load/weight ratio.PKMs have been intensively studied since the 1980s,and are still attract...Parallel kinematic machines (PKMs) have the advantages of a compact structure,high stiffness,a low moving inertia,and a high load/weight ratio.PKMs have been intensively studied since the 1980s,and are still attracting much attention.Compared with extensive researches focus on their type/dimensional synthesis,kinematic/dynamic analyses,the error modeling and separation issues in PKMs are not studied adequately,which is one of the most important obstacles in its commercial applications widely.Taking a 3-PRS parallel manipulator as an example,this paper presents a separation method of source errors for 3-DOF parallel manipulator into the compensable and non-compensable errors effectively.The kinematic analysis of 3-PRS parallel manipulator leads to its six-dimension Jacobian matrix,which can be mapped into the Jacobian matrix of actuations and constraints,and then the compensable and non-compensable errors can be separated accordingly.The compensable errors can be compensated by the kinematic calibration,while the non-compensable errors may be adjusted by the manufacturing and assembling process.Followed by the influence of the latter,i.e.,the non-compensable errors,on the pose error of the moving platform through the sensitivity analysis with the aid of the Monte-Carlo method,meanwhile,the configurations of the manipulator are sought as the pose errors of the moving platform approaching their maximum.The compensable and non-compensable errors in limited-DOF parallel manipulators can be separated effectively by means of the Jacobian matrix of actuations and constraints,providing designers with an informative guideline to taking proper measures for enhancing the pose accuracy via component tolerancing and/or kinematic calibration,which can lay the foundation for the error distinguishment and compensation.展开更多
Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parall...Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error’s influence on the moving platform’s pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.展开更多
Analysis of sensitivity of bioretention cell design elements to their hydrologic performances is meaningful in offering theoretical guidelines for proper design. Hydrologic performance of bioretention cells was facili...Analysis of sensitivity of bioretention cell design elements to their hydrologic performances is meaningful in offering theoretical guidelines for proper design. Hydrologic performance of bioretention cells was facilitated with consideration of four metrics: the overflow ratio, groundwater recharge ratio, ponding time, and runoff coefficients. The storm water management model (SWMM) and the bioretention infiltration model RECARGA were applied to generating runoff and outflow time series for calculation of hydrologic performance metrics. Using a parking lot to build a bioretention cell, as an example, the Morris method was used to conduct global sensitivity analysis for two groups of bioretention samples, one without underdrain and the other with underdrain. Results show that the surface area is the most sensitive element to most of the hydrologic metrics, while the gravel depth is the least sensitive element whether bioretention cells are installed with underdrain or not. The saturated infiltration rate of planting soil and the saturated infiltration rate of native soil are the other two most sensitive elements for bioretention cells without underdrain, while the saturated infiltration rate of native soil and underdrain size are the two most sensitive design elements for bioretention cells with underdrain.展开更多
In this study,a method for control of reticulated shells is proposed and its practicality is demonstrated.The control is implemented by replacing selected bars of the shell with passive viscoelastic dampers.By applyin...In this study,a method for control of reticulated shells is proposed and its practicality is demonstrated.The control is implemented by replacing selected bars of the shell with passive viscoelastic dampers.By applying the eigenvalue perturbation technique and the earthquake spectrum concept,the sensitivities of various topologies of the shell are analyzed,and the optimal topology is determined by taking their symmetries into consideration.The results of this research show that common damper topologies are not effective for all types of responses and recorded earthquakes.The optimal topology identifi ed requires a minimal number of dampers for each type of earthquake record.The displacement control effect of the dynamic responses of the optimal topology is 10% – 20%; the acceleration control effect is also about 10% – 20%; and the axial force control effect is as much as 30% – 45%.Furthermore,the incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) method is used to investigate the stability of the controlled shell.The results show that the dynamic stability of the controlled shell is well preserved when it is vibrated under vibration and is better than the uncontrolled shell.The ultimate load increased by 10% and the elements entered into the plastic stage when the peak acceleration reached 580 Gal,which is 200 Gal larger than the uncontrolled shell.展开更多
Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an effective tool for studying crop models; it is an important link in model localization and plays an important role in crop model calibration and application. The objectives were to (...Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an effective tool for studying crop models; it is an important link in model localization and plays an important role in crop model calibration and application. The objectives were to (i) determine influential and non-influential parameters with respect to above ground biomass (AGB), canopy cover (CC), and grain yield of winter wheat in the Beijing area based on the AquaCrop model under different water treatments (rainfall, normal irrigation, and over-irrigation); and (ii) generate an AquaCrop model that can be used in the Beijing area by setting non-influential parameters to fixed values and adjusting influential parameters according to the SA results. In this study, field experiments were conducted during the 2012-2013,2013-2014, and 2014-2015 winter wheat growing seasons at the National Precision Agriculture Demonstration Research Base in Beijing, China. The extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used to perform SA of the AquaCrop model using 42 crop parameters, in order to verify the SA results, data from the 2013-2014 growing season were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model, and data from 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 growing seasons were val- idated. For AGB and yield of winter wheat, the total order sensitivity analysis had more sensitive parameters than the first order sensitivity analysis. For the AGB time-series, parameter sensitivity was changed under different water treatments; in comparison with the non-stressful conditions (normal irrigation and over-irrigation), there were more sensitive parameters under water stress (rainfall), while root development parameters were more sensitive. For CC with time-series and yield, there were more sensitive parameters under water stress than under no water stress. Two parameters sets were selected to calibrate the AquaCrop model, one group of parameters were under water stress, and the others were under no water stress, there were two more sensitive parameters (growing degree-days (GDD) from sowing to the maximum rooting depth (root) and the maximum effective rooting depth (rtx)) under water stress than under no water stress. The results showed that there was higher accuracy under water stress than under no water stress. This study provides guidelines for AquaCrop model calibration and application in Beijing, China, as well providing guidance to simplify the AquaCrop model and improve its precision, especially when many parameters are used.展开更多
The RHT model has 34 parameters,among which 19 parameters can be obtained by experiments or theoretical calculations and the remaining 15 parameters are difficult to acquire.In this study,firstly,10 Hopkinson impact t...The RHT model has 34 parameters,among which 19 parameters can be obtained by experiments or theoretical calculations and the remaining 15 parameters are difficult to acquire.In this study,firstly,10 Hopkinson impact tests were conducted to acquire the typical stress-strain curves of granite under dynamic loads.Through the sensitivity analysis,it is found that 13 of the 15 difficult-acquired parameters are effective to affect the shape of the stress-strain curve,and the other two parameters have no effect.Following the initial determination of model parameters with reference to the concrete RHT model,a new approach is proposed to optimize the 13 influential parameters through the LS-DYNA numerical simulation and orthogonal experiments.Finally,the determined granite RHT model parameters are verified by the results of Hopkinson impact tests conducted in this study and the bullet penetration test by Wang et al.Both results of the numerical simulations are in a good agreement with the tested results,which validates the suitability of the proposed method to acquire RHT model parameters for granite and the other rocks.展开更多
The dynamic characteristics of bridge structures, such as the natural frequencies, mode shapes and model damping ratio, are the basis of structural dynamic computation, seismic analysis, vibration control and structur...The dynamic characteristics of bridge structures, such as the natural frequencies, mode shapes and model damping ratio, are the basis of structural dynamic computation, seismic analysis, vibration control and structural health condition monitoring. In this paper, a three-dimensional finite-element model is established for a highway bridge over a railway on No.312 National Highway and the ambient test is carried out in site, the dynamic characteristics of the bridge are studied using the finite-element analysis and ambient vibration measurements. Comparison between the theoretical and experimental results shows that the frequency differences of the modes range between 0.44% and 8.77%. If the measurement is more reliable, the finite element model updating is necessary. Thus, a set of design variables is selected based on sensitivity analysis, then the finite element model of the bridge is updated based on optimization algorithm. The results of model updating show that the proposed updating method in this paper is more simple and effective, the updated finite element model can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the bridge better, the analytical results can provide the theoretical basis for damage identification and health condition monitoring of the bridge.展开更多
Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity ana...Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1) a screening method (Morris) for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2) a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol). First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM) were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.展开更多
An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after ve...An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters: the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of U. K.(Nos. EP/S030875/1, EP/T017899/1, and EP/T517896/1)。
文摘Within this work,we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of the material input parameters on the pressure in an isotropic porous solid cylinder.We provide a step-by-step guide to obtain the analytical solution for a porous isotropic elastic cylinder in terms of the pressure,stresses,and elastic displacement.We obtain the solution by performing a Laplace transform on the governing equations,which are those of Biot's poroelasticity in cylindrical polar coordinates.We enforce radial boundary conditions and obtain the solution in the Laplace transformed domain before reverting back to the time domain.The sensitivity analysis is then carried out,considering only the derived pressure solution.This analysis finds that the time t,Biot's modulus M,and Poisson's ratio ν have the highest influence on the pressure whereas the initial value of pressure P_(0) plays a very little role.
基金supported by 111 Project (No.D21025)Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation (Nos.PLN2021-01,PLN2021-02,PLN2021-03)+2 种基金High-end Foreign Expert Introduction Program (No.G2021036005L)National Key Research and Development Program (No.2021YFC2800903)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U20B6005-05)。
文摘During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and accumulation of hydrates further contribute to the obstruction of natural gas pipelines,resulting in production reduction,shutdowns,and pressure build-ups.Consequently,a cascade of risks is prone to occur.To address this issue,this study focuses on the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,where a comprehensive framework is established.This framework includes theoretical models for pipeline temperature distribution,pipeline pressure distribution,multiphase flow within the pipeline,hydrate blockage,and numerical solution methods.By analyzing the influence of inlet temperature,inlet pressure,and terminal pressure on hydrate formation within the pipeline,the sensitivity patterns of hydrate blockage risks are derived.The research indicates that reducing inlet pressure and terminal pressure could lead to a decreased maximum hydrate formation rate,potentially mitigating pipeline blockage during natural gas transportation.Furthermore,an increase in inlet temperature and terminal pressure,and a decrease in inlet pressure,results in a displacement of the most probable location for hydrate blockage towards the terminal station.However,it is crucial to note that operating under low-pressure conditions significantly elevates energy consumption within the gathering system,contradicting the operational goal of energy efficiency and reduction of energy consumption.Consequently,for high-pressure gathering pipelines,measures such as raising the inlet temperature or employing inhibitors,electrical heat tracing,and thermal insulation should be adopted to prevent hydrate formation during natural gas transportation.Moreover,considering abnormal conditions such as gas well production and pipeline network shutdowns,which could potentially trigger hydrate formation,the installation of methanol injection connectors remains necessary to ensure production safety.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62373224,62333013,U23A20327)。
文摘Battery production is crucial for determining the quality of electrode,which in turn affects the manufactured battery performance.As battery production is complicated with strongly coupled intermediate and control parameters,an efficient solution that can perform a reliable sensitivity analysis of the production terms of interest and forecast key battery properties in the early production phase is urgently required.This paper performs detailed sensitivity analysis of key production terms on determining the properties of manufactured battery electrode via advanced data-driven modelling.To be specific,an explainable neural network named generalized additive model with structured interaction(GAM-SI)is designed to predict two key battery properties,including electrode mass loading and porosity,while the effects of four early production terms on manufactured batteries are explained and analysed.The experimental results reveal that the proposed method is able to accurately predict battery electrode properties in the mixing and coating stages.In addition,the importance ratio ranking,global interpretation and local interpretation of both the main effects and pairwise interactions can be effectively visualized by the designed neural network.Due to the merits of interpretability,the proposed GAM-SI can help engineers gain important insights for understanding complicated production behavior,further benefitting smart battery production.
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
文摘Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.
文摘This paper presents an engineering system approach using a 2D model of conservation of mass to study the dynamics of ozone and concerned chemical species in the stratosphere.By considering all fourteen photolysis,ozone-generating,and-depleting chemical reactions,the model calculated the transient,spatial changes of ozone under different physical-chemical-radiative conditions.Validation against the measured data demonstrated good accuracy,close match of our model with the observed ozone concentrations at both 20°S and 90°N locations.The deviation in the average concentration was less than 1% and in ozone profiles less than 17%.The impacts of various chlorine-(Cl),nitrogen oxides-(NO_(x)),and bromine-(Br)depleting cycles on ozone concentrations and distribution were investigated.The chlorine catalytic depleting cycle was found to exhibit the most significant impact on ozone dynamics,confirming the key role of chlorine in the problem of ozone depletion.Sensitivity analysis was conducted with levels of 25%,50%,100%,200%,and 400% of the baseline value.The combined cycles(Cl+NO_(x)+Br)showed the most significant influence on ozone behavior.The total ozone abundance above the South Pole could decrease by a small 3%,from 281 DU(Dubson Units)to 273 DU for the 25% level,or by a huge thinning of 60%to 114 DU for the 400% concentration level.When the level of chlorine gases increased beyond 200%,it would cause ozone depletion to a level of ozone hole(below 220 DU).The 2D Ozone Model presented in this paper demonstrates robustness,convenience,efficiency,and executability for analyzing complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere.
基金The Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX13_110)the Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51408253)the Young Scientists Fund of Huaiyin Institute of Technology(No.491713328)
文摘This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand (SUEED) model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables with respect to the perturbation parameters for the SUEED model. Then by taking advantage of the gradient-based method for sensitivity analysis of a general nonlinear program, detailed formulae are developed for calculating the derivatives of designed variables with respect to perturbation parameters at the equilibrium state of the SUEED model. This method is not only applicable for a sensitivity analysis of the logit-type SUEED problem, but also for the probit-type SUEED problem. The application of the proposed method in a numerical example shows that the proposed method can be used to approximate the equilibrium link flow solutions for both logit-type SUEED and probit-type SUEED problems when small perturbations are introduced in the input parameters.
文摘For a detector in a capacitanee fuze working in an electrostatic field, the bomblength (effective length of the conductor part) is an important factor affecting the sensitivityof detection. For the two different kinds of detecting circuit models in general use (the frequency-sensitive and the amplitude-coupling ), mechanism of the effect of bomblength on the sensitvity of detection is analyzed. Through the analysis a conclusion in fullagreement with experimental results has been drawn, that is. the longer the bomb length,the higher the sensitivity, on the condition that the sizes and the sites of the detecting electrodes and bomb diameter remain unchanged.
文摘By studying the Qinglong Mountain in southeastern suburb of Wuhan City, relevant information are obtained by applying GIS, weight of each index is acquired via Delphi method and AHP, then an evalution model is established for the assessment of comprehensive sensitivity, and finally eco-sensitive area of each level is determined to provide objective support for the ecological planning of Qinglong Mountain Scenic Area.
基金Supported by National Key Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2014CB046405)Hebei Provincial Applied Basic Research Program(Grant No.12962147D)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51375423)
文摘The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displacement changes of the piston are ignored, even experiment verification is not conducted. Therefore, in view of deficiencies above, a nonlinear mathematical model is established in this paper, including dynamic characteristics of servo valve, nonlinear characteristics of pressure-flow, initial displacement of servo cylinder piston and friction nonlinearity. The transfer function block diagram is built for the hydraulic drive unit closed loop position control, as well as the state equations. Through deriving the time-varying coefficient items matrix and time-varying free items matrix of sensitivity equations respectively, the expression of sensitivity equations based on the nonlinear mathematical model are obtained. According to structure parameters of hydraulic drive unit, working parameters, fluid transmission characteristics and measured friction-velocity curves, the simulation analysis of hydraulic drive unit is completed on the MATLAB/Simulink simulation platform with the displacement step 2 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the developed nonlinear mathematical model is sufficient by comparing the characteristic curves of experimental step response and simulation step response under different constant load. Then, the sensitivity function time-history curves of seventeen parameters are obtained, basing on each state vector time-history curve of step response characteristic. The maximum value of displacement variation percentage and the sum of displacement variation absolute values in the sampling time are both taken as sensitivity indexes. The sensitivity indexes values above are calculated and shown visually in histograms under different working conditions, and change rules are analyzed. Then the sensitivity indexes values of four measurable parameters, such as supply pressure, proportional gain, initial position of servo cylinder piston and load force, are verified experimentally on test platform of hydraulic drive unit, and the experimental research shows that the sensitivity analysis results obtained through simulation are approximate to the test results. This research indicates each parameter sensitivity characteristics of hydraulic drive unit, the performance-affected main parameters and secondary parameters are got under different working conditions, which will provide the theoretical foundation for the control compensation and structure optimization of hydraulic drive unit.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701375,41601369,and 41471285)the European Space Agency(ESA)and Ministry of Science and Technology of China(MOST)Dragon 4 Cooperation Programme(32275-1)
文摘A crop growth model,integrating genotype,environment,and management factor,was developed to serve as an analytical tool to study the influence of these factors on crop growth,production,and agricultural planning.A major challenge of model application is the optimization and calibration of a considerable number of parameters.Sensitivity analysis(SA) has become an effective method to identify the importance of various parameters.In this study,the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test(EFAST) approach was used to evaluate the sensitivity of the DSSAT-CERES model output responses of interest to 39 crop genotype parameters and six soil parameters.The outputs for the SA included grain yield and quality(take grain protein content(GPC) as an indicator) at maturity stage,as well as leaf area index,aboveground biomass,and aboveground nitrogen accumulation at the critical process variables.The key results showed that:(1) the influence of parameter bounds on the sensitivity results was slight and less than the impacts from the significance of the parameters themselves;(2) the sensitivity parameters of grain yield and GPC were different,and the sensitivity of the interactions between parameters to GPC was greater than those between the parameters to grain yield;and(3) the sensitivity analyses of some process variables,including leaf area index,aboveground biomass,and aboveground nitrogen accumulation,should be performed differently.Finally,some parameters,which improve the model’s structure and the accuracy of the process simulation,should not be ignored when maturity output as an objective variable is studied.
基金supported by Tianjin Research Program of Application Foundation and Advanced Technology of China (Grant No.11JCZDJC22700)National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo. 51075295,Grant No. 50675151)+1 种基金National High-tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program,Grant No.2007AA042001)PhD Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 20060056018)
文摘Parallel kinematic machines (PKMs) have the advantages of a compact structure,high stiffness,a low moving inertia,and a high load/weight ratio.PKMs have been intensively studied since the 1980s,and are still attracting much attention.Compared with extensive researches focus on their type/dimensional synthesis,kinematic/dynamic analyses,the error modeling and separation issues in PKMs are not studied adequately,which is one of the most important obstacles in its commercial applications widely.Taking a 3-PRS parallel manipulator as an example,this paper presents a separation method of source errors for 3-DOF parallel manipulator into the compensable and non-compensable errors effectively.The kinematic analysis of 3-PRS parallel manipulator leads to its six-dimension Jacobian matrix,which can be mapped into the Jacobian matrix of actuations and constraints,and then the compensable and non-compensable errors can be separated accordingly.The compensable errors can be compensated by the kinematic calibration,while the non-compensable errors may be adjusted by the manufacturing and assembling process.Followed by the influence of the latter,i.e.,the non-compensable errors,on the pose error of the moving platform through the sensitivity analysis with the aid of the Monte-Carlo method,meanwhile,the configurations of the manipulator are sought as the pose errors of the moving platform approaching their maximum.The compensable and non-compensable errors in limited-DOF parallel manipulators can be separated effectively by means of the Jacobian matrix of actuations and constraints,providing designers with an informative guideline to taking proper measures for enhancing the pose accuracy via component tolerancing and/or kinematic calibration,which can lay the foundation for the error distinguishment and compensation.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51305222)National Key Scientific and Technological Program of China(Grant No.2013ZX04001-021)
文摘Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error’s influence on the moving platform’s pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.
文摘Analysis of sensitivity of bioretention cell design elements to their hydrologic performances is meaningful in offering theoretical guidelines for proper design. Hydrologic performance of bioretention cells was facilitated with consideration of four metrics: the overflow ratio, groundwater recharge ratio, ponding time, and runoff coefficients. The storm water management model (SWMM) and the bioretention infiltration model RECARGA were applied to generating runoff and outflow time series for calculation of hydrologic performance metrics. Using a parking lot to build a bioretention cell, as an example, the Morris method was used to conduct global sensitivity analysis for two groups of bioretention samples, one without underdrain and the other with underdrain. Results show that the surface area is the most sensitive element to most of the hydrologic metrics, while the gravel depth is the least sensitive element whether bioretention cells are installed with underdrain or not. The saturated infiltration rate of planting soil and the saturated infiltration rate of native soil are the other two most sensitive elements for bioretention cells without underdrain, while the saturated infiltration rate of native soil and underdrain size are the two most sensitive design elements for bioretention cells with underdrain.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.50908036&51261120376Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province No.201202040
文摘In this study,a method for control of reticulated shells is proposed and its practicality is demonstrated.The control is implemented by replacing selected bars of the shell with passive viscoelastic dampers.By applying the eigenvalue perturbation technique and the earthquake spectrum concept,the sensitivities of various topologies of the shell are analyzed,and the optimal topology is determined by taking their symmetries into consideration.The results of this research show that common damper topologies are not effective for all types of responses and recorded earthquakes.The optimal topology identifi ed requires a minimal number of dampers for each type of earthquake record.The displacement control effect of the dynamic responses of the optimal topology is 10% – 20%; the acceleration control effect is also about 10% – 20%; and the axial force control effect is as much as 30% – 45%.Furthermore,the incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) method is used to investigate the stability of the controlled shell.The results show that the dynamic stability of the controlled shell is well preserved when it is vibrated under vibration and is better than the uncontrolled shell.The ultimate load increased by 10% and the elements entered into the plastic stage when the peak acceleration reached 580 Gal,which is 200 Gal larger than the uncontrolled shell.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571416)the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing,China(4152019)the Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences Innovation Capacity Construction Specific Projects,China(KJCX20150409)
文摘Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an effective tool for studying crop models; it is an important link in model localization and plays an important role in crop model calibration and application. The objectives were to (i) determine influential and non-influential parameters with respect to above ground biomass (AGB), canopy cover (CC), and grain yield of winter wheat in the Beijing area based on the AquaCrop model under different water treatments (rainfall, normal irrigation, and over-irrigation); and (ii) generate an AquaCrop model that can be used in the Beijing area by setting non-influential parameters to fixed values and adjusting influential parameters according to the SA results. In this study, field experiments were conducted during the 2012-2013,2013-2014, and 2014-2015 winter wheat growing seasons at the National Precision Agriculture Demonstration Research Base in Beijing, China. The extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used to perform SA of the AquaCrop model using 42 crop parameters, in order to verify the SA results, data from the 2013-2014 growing season were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model, and data from 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 growing seasons were val- idated. For AGB and yield of winter wheat, the total order sensitivity analysis had more sensitive parameters than the first order sensitivity analysis. For the AGB time-series, parameter sensitivity was changed under different water treatments; in comparison with the non-stressful conditions (normal irrigation and over-irrigation), there were more sensitive parameters under water stress (rainfall), while root development parameters were more sensitive. For CC with time-series and yield, there were more sensitive parameters under water stress than under no water stress. Two parameters sets were selected to calibrate the AquaCrop model, one group of parameters were under water stress, and the others were under no water stress, there were two more sensitive parameters (growing degree-days (GDD) from sowing to the maximum rooting depth (root) and the maximum effective rooting depth (rtx)) under water stress than under no water stress. The results showed that there was higher accuracy under water stress than under no water stress. This study provides guidelines for AquaCrop model calibration and application in Beijing, China, as well providing guidance to simplify the AquaCrop model and improve its precision, especially when many parameters are used.
基金Supported by the Talent Indroduction Research Start-up Fund Project of Kunming University of Science and Technology(KKSY201756009)
文摘The RHT model has 34 parameters,among which 19 parameters can be obtained by experiments or theoretical calculations and the remaining 15 parameters are difficult to acquire.In this study,firstly,10 Hopkinson impact tests were conducted to acquire the typical stress-strain curves of granite under dynamic loads.Through the sensitivity analysis,it is found that 13 of the 15 difficult-acquired parameters are effective to affect the shape of the stress-strain curve,and the other two parameters have no effect.Following the initial determination of model parameters with reference to the concrete RHT model,a new approach is proposed to optimize the 13 influential parameters through the LS-DYNA numerical simulation and orthogonal experiments.Finally,the determined granite RHT model parameters are verified by the results of Hopkinson impact tests conducted in this study and the bullet penetration test by Wang et al.Both results of the numerical simulations are in a good agreement with the tested results,which validates the suitability of the proposed method to acquire RHT model parameters for granite and the other rocks.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50378041)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents of Ministry of Educationof China (2004)
文摘The dynamic characteristics of bridge structures, such as the natural frequencies, mode shapes and model damping ratio, are the basis of structural dynamic computation, seismic analysis, vibration control and structural health condition monitoring. In this paper, a three-dimensional finite-element model is established for a highway bridge over a railway on No.312 National Highway and the ambient test is carried out in site, the dynamic characteristics of the bridge are studied using the finite-element analysis and ambient vibration measurements. Comparison between the theoretical and experimental results shows that the frequency differences of the modes range between 0.44% and 8.77%. If the measurement is more reliable, the finite element model updating is necessary. Thus, a set of design variables is selected based on sensitivity analysis, then the finite element model of the bridge is updated based on optimization algorithm. The results of model updating show that the proposed updating method in this paper is more simple and effective, the updated finite element model can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the bridge better, the analytical results can provide the theoretical basis for damage identification and health condition monitoring of the bridge.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41271003)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grants No. 2010CB428403 and 2010CB951103)
文摘Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1) a screening method (Morris) for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2) a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol). First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM) were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40405020.
文摘An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters: the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.