Farmers' Willingness on Organic Fertilizer Application Based on Logit Model and Influencing Factors——A case of Shandong Province

[Objective] The matter of chemical fertilizer being overused but organic fertilizer being deficiently used causes environment pollution and soil fertility degradation and holds back agricultural sustainable development in China at present.[Method] A survey of 200 farmers selected from Shandong province was conducted in 2008 to identify the factors influencing farmers willingness to use organic fertilizer.[Result] Logit model results showed that the proportion of non-farm income in total income,awareness of...

Impact of Labor Transfer on Agricultural Land Use Conversion at Rural Household Level Based on Logit Model

Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.

Shrinkage Estimation in the Random Parameters Logit Model

In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.

The Logit Models to Analyze the Risk of Chinese High Technology Products Output

By developing 7 logit models, this study attempts to identify the independent variables, which influence the risk of the Chinese high technology products output. The total sample comprises 184 enterprises surveyed in Gangdong province, Beijing and Shanghai from June to September of 2002.The most statistically significant independent variables are found to be the R＆D proportion, the enterprise kind, the enterprise scale, the product kind and exporters. The study suggests that the logit model should be effectively used by enterprises and governments to assess the risk of high technology products output.

Study on urban housing consumption selection based on Logit model

Housing problem is the problem of livelihood. The problem of housing consumer behavior has become one of the main concern of the Government after more than 10 years the rapid development of real estate. This article is based on the logit model, integrated family net worth, family income, labor factors and so on. Results showed that housing in Shanghai have household net worth is the most critical, followed by labour income and labour force.

The Sensitivity of Model Results to Specification of Network-Based Level of Service Attributes: An Application of a Mixed Logit Model to Trave Mode Choice

The need for travel demand models is growing worldwide. Obtaining reasonably accurate level of service (LOS) attributes of different travel modes such as travel time and cost representing the performance of transportation system is not a trivial task, especially in growing cities of developing countries. This study investigates the sensitivity of results of a travel mode choice model to different specifications of network-based LOS attributes using a mixed logit model. The study also looks at the possibilities of correcting some of the inaccuracies in network-based LOS attributes. Further, the study also explores the effects of different specifications of LOS data on implied values of time and aggregation forecasting. The findings indicate that the implied values of time are very sensitive to specification of data and model implying that utmost care must be taken if the purpose of the model is to estimate values of time. Models estimated on all specifications of LOS-data perform well in prediction, likely suggesting that the extra expense on developing a more detailed and accurate network models so as to derive more precise LOS attributes is unnecessary for impact analyses of some policies.

基于随机系数Logit模型的专利价值评估研究——以主动降噪技术为例

[研究目的]从分析专利价值入手,通过经济学研究方法围绕专利侵权损害赔偿的标准进行定量研究,为评估专利价值提供有意义的知识增量。[研究方法]基于实证产业组织理论,采用随机系数Logit模型,以无线蓝牙耳机主动降噪(ANC)技术作为研究对象,构建该技术遭受侵权的反事实情形来估计经济指标变化,由此评估专利价值及侵权赔偿比例。[研究结论]专利侵权企业的行为产生了反竞争效应,提升了企业垄断势力,挤占了其他耳机企业的生存空间,也对潜在进入企业形成了进入威胁。蓝牙耳机价格中约有4.06%源于ANC专利标识。如果发生ANC专利侵权,赔偿额度应是侵权企业利润的2.6~2.8倍。该方法利用市场数据在均衡框架下评估专利价值,为相关研究提供了新方向。

基于Logit模型的技术供需交易影响因素分析

将技术供方和专利视为整体,将供需双方是否通过某专利交易视为被解释变量,系统研究技术特征、组织实力和供需方多维邻近关系等对技术交易的影响。基于Logit模型对燃料电池领域专利数据实证研究发现:(1)考虑三维特征建立Logit模型,对交易形成预测的精度高达83.3%;(2)技术特征、组织实力特征、多维邻近特征对技术交易均有显著正向影响;(3)多维邻近特征对技术交易的促进程度远高于其他维度特征,供需双方信任是交易形成的关键因素。最后,从建立高质量技术供需数据库、技术交易信任体系、技术交易网络及交易推荐机制等方面提出对策思考。

拥挤信息下基于Logit模型的公共交通 方式选择行为研究

人们对出行方式的舒适性要求越来越高,出行信息能为出行者提供有效帮助。采用正交试验对公共交通方式选择特性变量进行情景组合设计,并结合公共交通出行特征进行问卷调查设计,对提供拥挤信息条件下出行者对公共交通方式选择意愿进行调查,据此建立公共交通方式选择Logit模型。结果表明,拥挤信息对公共交通方式选择有显著影响,对公交出行选择影响较大。

基于随机参数logit的山区高速公路事故严重程度研究

为了探究平曲线、纵曲线、平纵组合线形对山区高速公路交通事故严重程度的影响,首先,统计分析某山区高速公路263 km路段的线形数据和该路段5年内发生的1870起事故,并将其分类;然后,根据调研数据的结构形式,建立随机参数logit模型,进而利用该模型研究组合线形对事故严重程度的影响。结果表明:曲线比例(ROC)、加权曲率(CW)、单元坡度差(ΔS_(2))等因素与仅财产损失事故增加相关,而坡长组合(CSL)与仅财产损失事故减少相关;加权曲率(CW=0.6~0.7)和连续上坡与轻伤事故的事故增加相关,加权曲率(CW=0.3~0.4)、单元坡度差(ΔS_(1))、曲线比例(ROC)等因素与轻伤事故减少相关;曲率变化率(VRC)、单元半径比(CRF,CRB)、弯坡组合(CSR)等因素与重伤或死亡事故增加相关,曲线比例(ROC)与重伤或死亡事故减少相关;组合线形对事故严重程度有着显著影响。

基于Ordered Logit模型的民办高校科研成果转化影响因素研究

为研究民办高校科研成果转化影响因素,在专家访谈和实地调研的基础上,对K高校、C高校、B高校、Z高校等民办高校教师发放调查问卷收集数据,应用Ordered Logit模型对其影响因素进行了实证分析。分析发现,科研经费支持力度与科研成果数量之间呈正相关关系,高校科研平台设置与服务地方经济建设之间呈正相关关系,高校科研管理制度与科研成果转化成效之间呈正相关关系。由此得出结论:我国民办高校科研成果转化与服务地方经济能力有待提升,民办高校科研成果转化的金融支持不够灵活、公共服务平台不够健全,完善民办高校科研管理制度是提高科研成果转化效率的重要保障。

应用累积比数logit模型和偏比例优势模型分析肺癌手术患者住院费用影响因素

目的阐明累积比数logit模型和偏比例优势模型在有序分类资料中的应用。方法以肺癌手术住院费用的相关因素分析为例,采用累积比数logit模型和偏比例优势模型对肺癌手术住院费用与各相关因素关系进行拟合,通过模型的对数似然值(-2ln L)判断2种模型拟合的优度。结果在自变量不全满足比例优势假定条件时(性别χ^(2)=15.888,P<0.001;手术术式χ^(2)=35.874,P<0.001),2种分析方法拟合结果不同。在不同分割点,住院费用与手术术式关系的差别较大。偏比例优势模型(-2ln L=5797.112)优于累积比数logit模型(-2ln L=5852.420),差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论有序分类资料的分析,首先应进行比例优势假定条件验证,如果自变量均满足该条件,选择累积比数logit模型,否则采用偏比例优势模型拟合。

基于Logit模型的教育评估系统构建及应用分析

针对现有教育评估模型评价指标覆盖面小、评估精度不足等问题,文中提出构建基于Logit模型的教育评估系统。首先根据评估的对象和范围,将教育评估体系分为四类,再根据目标导向等原则设计评估指标体系;随后,对数据进行预处理,并对自变量进行赋值操作,使其更贴合建模要求;最后基于Logit模型构建教育评估及成绩预测系统。将文中所提模型应用于浙江一所高中进行实证,结果表明,基于Logit模型的教育评估系统具有较好的应用效果,能够评估指标和影响因素同教学评估结果之间的关系,并提供科学的评估和预测结果。

中国居民收入与家庭碳达峰:基于CGSS数据与多项Logit模型

基于2015年和2018年CGSS家庭微观数据,构建多项Logit模型,实证检验居民收入对家庭碳达峰偏离度的影响。研究发现:居民收入增长对家庭直接碳达峰偏离度和间接碳达峰偏离度均产生显著的促进作用,进而提升家庭部门碳达峰偏离度,且家庭碳达峰偏离水平越低,收入增长产生影响的可能性就越小。异质性分析表明,中西部地区家庭的低碳消费模式较为稳定,东部地区则需关注高碳排放风险,且教育水平提升能够缓解因居民收入增长带来的家庭碳达峰偏离度提升问题。因此,我国政府应引导培养家庭节约集约的绿色生活观念,以推动家庭消费绿色低碳转型和碳达峰碳中和目标的实现。

基于混合Logit模型的仙女山国家森林公园游客行为的影响因素研究

研究森林公园的游客行为特征及影响因素,有助于促进当地的旅游发展,推动经济可持续增长,为森林公园的高质量发展提供研究基础。以仙女山国家森林公园为例,通过实地调查获取游客的社会经济特征、态度量表及行为特征,运用S-O-R框架构建森林公园游客的行为特征分析框架,利用MIMIC模型拟合行为特征分析框架,引入混合Logit模型探索社会经济特征和态度变量对游客行为的影响。结果表明:(1)仙女山国家森林公园以市内游客为主,多以陪伴家人、休闲度假为主要动机。(2)研究证实了构建的行为分析框架对森林公园游客的行为具有解释效力。(3)各变量对旅游行为的影响依次为主体认知(-0.278)>主体选择(-0.160)>旅游地条件(0.204)>主体感受(0.373)。

Logit模型的前世与今生

分类问题贯穿了统计学三百余年的发展进程,是统计中基础且重要的问题.许多统计模型被统计学家们创造并运用在分类中,作为分类方法的一种,Logit模型在机器学习、经济预测、数据挖掘、疾病诊断等领域发挥重要的作用.本文将主要介绍该模型起源、发展的故事,以及该模型在当下的用武之地.

基于多项Logit模型的山区高速公路事故致因分析

为分析山区高速长大下坡路段事故严重程度的影响因素,首先对地处陕西省、广西壮族自治区、云南省的典型山区高速公路长大下坡路段的道路交通事故数据进行深度调研,共获取2559条事故数据,然后基于上述事故数据,构建了多项Logit事故严重程度模型,对导致山区高速长大下坡路段交通事故的直接致因进行了分析。分析结果表明:肇事驾驶人超速行驶、违法装载超限、疲劳驾驶、操作不当、违法停车、车辆制动失效对山区高速长大下坡路段伤亡事故有显著影响。研究结果为改善山区公路的运营安全性,从根本上寻求已建成山区高速公路事故频发的有效办法提供了方向。

基于随机参数Logit的市域旅客出行方式选择影响研究

为了探究市域火车新线开通对旅客出行路径选择的影响,以西安鄠邑区至主城区市域出行旅客为研究对象,分析市域火车开通对旅客出行方式选择的影响。传统多项Logit模型无关方案独立性,无法定量研究旅客出行方式选择的差异性,故本文应用随机参数Logit模型分析市域旅客出行方式选择。选取旅客的个体属性、市域出行方式属性、到离站属性设计问卷,采用线上线下相结合的方式开展调查,获取了1205份有效数据,基于此建立并求解随机参数Logit模型。结果表明:在旅客选择大巴出行时,市域出行距离、职业、购票方式、到站方式和到站时间对旅客出行方式选择影响显著,市域出行时间服从(-0.15,0.146^(2))正态分布的随机参数特征;对市域出行时间随机参数进行边际效应分析,市域出行时间超过30 min后,旅客选择大巴和小汽车出行的概率降低,选择市域火车出行的概率增加;对旅客出行方式选择影响显著变量进行弹性分析,到站费用每增加1%,旅客选择大巴的概率增加0.394%,选择高铁的概率下降1.888%,选择市域火车的概率增加0.569%,选择小汽车的概率降低0.030%。结果证实,旅客对市域出行时间的偏好具有异质性,市域出行时间过长将降低旅客选择大巴和小汽车的概率,减少到站时间可以提高旅客选择市域火车的概率。

基于Logit模型的视频流媒体用户付费意愿及其影响因素研究--以爱奇艺为例

爱奇艺作为国内头部视频流媒体之一,面临用户付费意愿薄弱的困境。基于整合型技术接受模型(UTAUT)和感知价值理论(CPV)的相关变量提出假设,构建研究模型。通过Logit模型展开实证研究,结果显示感知有用性、感知成本、社会影响、个人付费意识对爱奇艺用户的付费意愿有显著影响。对此,提出深耕优质内容IP、丰富价格体系、打造口碑营销、聚焦年轻人的情绪价值四点建议,为爱奇艺探索新的战略提供有针对性的对策建议。

基于Logit原理的出租车载客选择策略研究

针对机场出租车司机排队载客还是空驶返回市区两种选择行为进行分析,研究影响出租车司机决选择策的相关因素机理,基于Logit原理建立出租车和乘客选择决策模型;然后算出两种选择下的出租车司机的收益,通过收益差异得出司机的合理决策,进而采用旅客和司机等待时间最短作为最好乘车效率的主要依据,给出上车点的最佳位置。