To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 201...To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Niña.Here,we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH),to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can lead to a multi-year La Niña event.This research highlights the importance of focusing on the Southern Ocean,as current climate models struggle to accurately simulate the Pacific response driven by the Southern Ocean.展开更多
Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Outlook issued ...Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Outlook issued in April 2022,La Niña is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall,indicating a high possibility of a three-year La Niña(2020-23).It would be the first three-year La Niña since the 1998-2001 event,which is the only observed three-year La Niña event since 1980.By examining the status of air-sea fields over the tropical Pacific in March 2022,it can be seen that while the thermocline depths were near average,the southeasterly wind stress was at its strongest since 1980.Here,based on a quaternary linear regression model that includes various relevant air-sea variables over the equatorial Pacific in March,we argue that the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the emergence of the third-year La Niña,and both the anomalous easterly and southerly wind stress components are important and contribute~50%of the third-year La Niña growth,respectively.Additionally,the possible global climate impacts of this event are discussed.展开更多
Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoonactivities in relation with the El Nino and La Nina events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in t...Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoonactivities in relation with the El Nino and La Nina events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the El Nino years and active in the La Nina years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time andintensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Nino and La Nina years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature (SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singularvalues disassemble (SVD) method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST fief(l.The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Nino years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. whichtake place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Nina years.展开更多
Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is sti...Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.展开更多
El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is an abnormal sea surface warming or cooling phenomenon over the tropical Pacific,which also has severe global impact.
Five volcanic rock samples and two granite samples taken from the volcanic basins in western Fujian and southern Jiangxi were dated by using the zircon laser albation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry U-Pb ...Five volcanic rock samples and two granite samples taken from the volcanic basins in western Fujian and southern Jiangxi were dated by using the zircon laser albation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry U-Pb method. Together with previously dated ages, the dates obtained provide important constraints on the timing of late Mesozoic tectonic events in SE China. The volcanic rock samples yield ages of 183.1±3.5 Ma, ca. 141 Ma to 135.8±1.1 Ma, 100.4±1.5 to 97.6±1.1 Ma, confirming three episodes of late Mesozoic volcanic activities, which peaked at 180±5 Ma, 140±5 Ma and 100±5 Ma, respectively, along the Wuyishan belt. Moreover, based on field investigations of these volcano-sedimentary basins, we have recognized two compressional tectonic events along this belt. The early one was characterized by Upper Triassic to Middle Jurassic NNE-trending folds that were intruded by late Jurassic granites; and the late one caused the Lower Cretaceous volcano-sedimentary layer to be tilted. The dated age 152.9±1.4 Ma of the granitic samples from the Hetian granitic pluton in the Changting Basin and that from the Baishiding granitic pluton, 100.2±1.8 Ma, in the Jianning Basin, give the upper boundaries of these two tectonic events respectively. Hence, the late Mesozoic tectonic evolution of SE China was alternated between extension and compression.展开更多
The 2015/2016 El Nino event reached the threshold of super El Nino event,and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998.Interestingly,the tropical cyclones(TCs)were found to have very late onsets in...The 2015/2016 El Nino event reached the threshold of super El Nino event,and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998.Interestingly,the tropical cyclones(TCs)were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Nino events.This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation,disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms.The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from January–June during the decaying years of the super El Nino events were stronger than the climatic mean,which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection.As a disturbance source,the April–June intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)during the decaying years of the super El Nino events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean.The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough,as important TC generation triggers,were weaker from April–June during the decaying years of the super El Nino events,which further reduced the probability of TC generation.As for the late TC onsets,the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies(i.e.,subtropical-high,the ITCZ,cross-equatorial flow,and monsoon trough)were more important.The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Nino events.展开更多
利用1951—2010年逐月的HadISST海表温度资料、SODA次表层海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,对比分析了东太平洋(EP型)La Nia和中太平洋(CP型)La Nia的海气耦合特征在季节演变过程中的差异。EP La Nia海表温度异常中心在发展年夏...利用1951—2010年逐月的HadISST海表温度资料、SODA次表层海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,对比分析了东太平洋(EP型)La Nia和中太平洋(CP型)La Nia的海气耦合特征在季节演变过程中的差异。EP La Nia海表温度异常中心在发展年夏季出现于南美沿岸,随后向西移动,盛期最大海表温度异常中心位于赤道东太平洋,而CP La Nia海温异常中心少动,基本维持在160°W附近,其强度更强,持续时间更长。受海温分布形态影响,热带大气对两类La Nia的响应非常不同,成熟期间CP型在中太平洋偏旱的强度和范围比EP型大,且略偏西。发展年夏、秋季,北半球位势高度响应较弱;冬季,负PNA位相易伴随两类La Nia出现,但异常活动中心的位置和强度不同,在北大西洋其大气响应几乎相反,这些差异会引起显著不同的区域气候异常。展开更多
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975107,41875092 and 42005020).
文摘To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Niña.Here,we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH),to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can lead to a multi-year La Niña event.This research highlights the importance of focusing on the Southern Ocean,as current climate models struggle to accurately simulate the Pacific response driven by the Southern Ocean.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASGrant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 4187601242175045)the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS (Grant No. XDB42000000)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (Grant No. 2020B0301030004)
文摘Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Outlook issued in April 2022,La Niña is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall,indicating a high possibility of a three-year La Niña(2020-23).It would be the first three-year La Niña since the 1998-2001 event,which is the only observed three-year La Niña event since 1980.By examining the status of air-sea fields over the tropical Pacific in March 2022,it can be seen that while the thermocline depths were near average,the southeasterly wind stress was at its strongest since 1980.Here,based on a quaternary linear regression model that includes various relevant air-sea variables over the equatorial Pacific in March,we argue that the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the emergence of the third-year La Niña,and both the anomalous easterly and southerly wind stress components are important and contribute~50%of the third-year La Niña growth,respectively.Additionally,the possible global climate impacts of this event are discussed.
文摘Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoonactivities in relation with the El Nino and La Nina events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the El Nino years and active in the La Nina years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time andintensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Nino and La Nina years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature (SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singularvalues disassemble (SVD) method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST fief(l.The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Nino years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. whichtake place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Nina years.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS (Grant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41876012 and 41861144015,42175045)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDB42000000).
文摘Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.
基金supported by the Basic Science Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant No.NRF-2017K1A3A7A03087790)
文摘El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is an abnormal sea surface warming or cooling phenomenon over the tropical Pacific,which also has severe global impact.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No. 40634022)
文摘Five volcanic rock samples and two granite samples taken from the volcanic basins in western Fujian and southern Jiangxi were dated by using the zircon laser albation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry U-Pb method. Together with previously dated ages, the dates obtained provide important constraints on the timing of late Mesozoic tectonic events in SE China. The volcanic rock samples yield ages of 183.1±3.5 Ma, ca. 141 Ma to 135.8±1.1 Ma, 100.4±1.5 to 97.6±1.1 Ma, confirming three episodes of late Mesozoic volcanic activities, which peaked at 180±5 Ma, 140±5 Ma and 100±5 Ma, respectively, along the Wuyishan belt. Moreover, based on field investigations of these volcano-sedimentary basins, we have recognized two compressional tectonic events along this belt. The early one was characterized by Upper Triassic to Middle Jurassic NNE-trending folds that were intruded by late Jurassic granites; and the late one caused the Lower Cretaceous volcano-sedimentary layer to be tilted. The dated age 152.9±1.4 Ma of the granitic samples from the Hetian granitic pluton in the Changting Basin and that from the Baishiding granitic pluton, 100.2±1.8 Ma, in the Jianning Basin, give the upper boundaries of these two tectonic events respectively. Hence, the late Mesozoic tectonic evolution of SE China was alternated between extension and compression.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program for Developing Basic Sciences under contract No.2016YFC1401601the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41576026
文摘The 2015/2016 El Nino event reached the threshold of super El Nino event,and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998.Interestingly,the tropical cyclones(TCs)were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Nino events.This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation,disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms.The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from January–June during the decaying years of the super El Nino events were stronger than the climatic mean,which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection.As a disturbance source,the April–June intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)during the decaying years of the super El Nino events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean.The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough,as important TC generation triggers,were weaker from April–June during the decaying years of the super El Nino events,which further reduced the probability of TC generation.As for the late TC onsets,the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies(i.e.,subtropical-high,the ITCZ,cross-equatorial flow,and monsoon trough)were more important.The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Nino events.
文摘利用1951—2010年逐月的HadISST海表温度资料、SODA次表层海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,对比分析了东太平洋(EP型)La Nia和中太平洋(CP型)La Nia的海气耦合特征在季节演变过程中的差异。EP La Nia海表温度异常中心在发展年夏季出现于南美沿岸,随后向西移动,盛期最大海表温度异常中心位于赤道东太平洋,而CP La Nia海温异常中心少动,基本维持在160°W附近,其强度更强,持续时间更长。受海温分布形态影响,热带大气对两类La Nia的响应非常不同,成熟期间CP型在中太平洋偏旱的强度和范围比EP型大,且略偏西。发展年夏、秋季,北半球位势高度响应较弱;冬季,负PNA位相易伴随两类La Nia出现,但异常活动中心的位置和强度不同,在北大西洋其大气响应几乎相反,这些差异会引起显著不同的区域气候异常。