Monitoring models for base flow effect and daily variation of dam seepage elements considering time lag effect

Affected by external environmental factors and evolution of dam performance, dam seepage behavior shows nonlinear time-varying characteristics. In this study, to predict and evaluate the long-term development trend and short-term fluctuation of the dam seepage behavior, two monitoring models were developed, one for the base flow effect and one for daily variation of dam seepage elements. In the first model, to avoid the influence of the time lag effect on the evaluation of seepage variation with the time effect component of seepage elements, the base values of the seepage element and the reservoir water level were extracted using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis method, and the time effect component was separated by the established base flow effect monitoring model. For the development of the daily variation monitoring model for dam seepage elements, all the previous factors, of which the measured time series prior to the dam seepage element monitoring time may have certain influence on the monitored results, were considered. Those factors that were positively correlated with the analyzed seepage element were initially considered to be the support vector machine(SVM) model input factors, and then the SVM kernel function-based sensitivity analysis was performed to optimize the input factor set and establish the optimized daily variation SVM model. The efficiency and rationality of the two models were verified by case studies of the water level of two piezometric tubes buried under the slope of a concrete gravity dam.Sensitivity analysis of the optimized SVM model shows that the influences of the daily variation of the upstream reservoir water level and rainfall on the daily variation of piezometric tube water level are processes subject to normal distribution.

PERIODIC AND ALMOST PERIODIC SOLUTIONS FOR A NON-AUTONOMOUS RESPIRATORY DISEASE MODEL WITH A LAG EFFECT

This paper studies a kind of non-autonomous respiratory disease model with a lag effect.First of all,the permanence and extinction of the system are discussed by using the comparison principle and some differential inequality techniques.Second,it assumes that all coefficients of the system are periodic.The existence of positive periodic solutions of the system is proven,based on the continuation theorem in coincidence with the degree theory of Mawhin and Gaines.In the meantime,the global attractivity of positive periodic solutions of the system is obtained by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov functional and using the Razumikin theorem.In addition,the existence and uniform asymptotic stability of almost periodic solutions of the system are analyzed by assuming that all parameters in the model are almost periodic in time.Finally,the theoretical derivation is verified by a numerical simulation.

Closed-form solution for shear lag effects of steel-concrete composite box beams considering shear deformation and slip

Based on the consideration of longitudinal warp caused by shear lag effects on concrete slabs and bottom plates of steel beams,shear deformation of steel beams and interface slip between steel beams and concrete slabs,the governing differential equations and boundary conditions of the steel-concrete composite box beams under lateral loading were derived using energy-variational method.The closed-form solutions for stress,deflection and slip of box beams under lateral loading were obtained,and the comparison of the analytical results and the experimental results for steel-concrete composite box beams under concentrated loading or uniform loading verifies the closed-form solution.The investigation of the parameters of load effects on composite box beams shows that:1) Slip stiffness has considerable impact on mid-span deflection and end slip when it is comparatively small;the mid-span deflection and end slip decrease significantly with the increase of slip stiffness,but when the slip stiffness reaches a certain value,its impact on mid-span deflection and end slip decreases to be negligible.2) The shear deformation has certain influence on mid-span deflection,and the larger the load is,the greater the influence is.3) The impact of shear deformation on end slip can be neglected.4) The strain of bottom plate of steel beam decreases with the increase of slip stiffness,while the shear lag effect becomes more significant.

Theoretical and experimental study on shear lag effect of partially cable-stayed bridge

In order to resolve the traffic congestion problem, many cable-stayed bridges are designed with a large width to span ratio. This results in significant shear lag effect to cause nonuniform stress distribution along the flanges of the beam of bridge. This paper reports study on the shear lag effect of the Lanzhou Xiaoxihu Yellow River Bridge. A 3D finite element model of the bridge was developed and finite element analysis (FEA) was done to obtain the theoretical results. To evaluate the theoretical results, a scaled model was made to conduct static test in laboratory. The experiment results accorded with the results obtained by FEA. It is proved that FEA is an effective method to predict shear lag effect of bridges of this type.

Experimental Study on Shear Lag Effect of Partial Cable-Stayed Bridge and Elasto-Plastic Seismic Analysis

The project of Xiaoxihu Yellow River Bridge in Lanzhou is chosen as partial cable-stayed bridge. To get the shear lag effect and anti-earthquake performance of the actual bridge under various loading conditions, organic glass scaled model was adopted to have an experiment and a theory research at one time. The experiment result is the basically same as the theory calculation which proves the FEA method can well calculate shear lag effect and dynamical performance. As a result, because the bridge is located in a seismic area of 8 degree, an elasto-plastic seismic checking is performed by customized FEA program in this paper.

Effect of different cold air intensities and their lagged effects on outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses in Handan in different seasons

本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据,分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响,结果显示:尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发,夏季最低,但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏,春季最大,就诊人数分别在冷空气日后两天和五天增加18.4%和13.3%,而冬季就诊人数在冷空气日后三天仅增加3.2%.冷空气对疾病影响的滞后时间在夏,秋和冬季随冷空气强度的增加而减少,而春季的滞后时间总是很长.这些发现可为科学应对气候异常导致的人群健康风险提供针对性依据.

Time Lag Effect of Supply Chain Management on Firm Performance

The objective of this paper is to identify time lag effect in the relationship between supply chain management and financial performance.We hypothesize that firms with higher supply chain management capability are associated with higher financial performance and the impact would last longer.In addition,we introduce two contextual variables,ownership and market orientation,to detect the moderating effect of ownership structure and organizational culture,respectively.We use firm-level empirical data from 1,131 public Chinese manufacturing firms for the 2010–2019 period to investigate the effect and the result shows that there is a two-year time lag effect in the relationship,which means the positive impact of current supply chain management would last for three years.Furthermore,we find evidence that supply chain management in non-state-owned firms is more efficient and its positive financial impact would last longer than that in state-owned enterprises.Finally,we indicate that market-orientation can’t moderate the relationship between supply chain management and financial performance.

Closed-form solution to thin-walled box girders considering effects of shear deformation and shear lag

Considering three longitudinal displacement functions and uniform axial displacement functions for shear lag effect and uniform axial deformation of thin-walled box girder with varying depths,a simple and efficient method with high precision to analyze the shear lag effect of thin-walled box girders was proposed.The governing differential equations and boundary conditions of the box girder under lateral loading were derived based on the energy-variational method,and closed-form solutions to stress and deflection corresponding to lateral loading were obtained.Analysis and calculations were carried out with respect to a trapezoidal box girder under concentrated loading or uniform loading and a rectangular box girder under concentrated loading.The analytical results were compared with numerical solutions derived according to the high order finite strip element method and the experimental results.The investigation shows that the closed-form solution is in good agreement with the numerical solutions derived according to the high order finite strip method and the experimental results,and has good stability.Because of the shear lag effect,the stress in cross-section centroid is no longer zero,thus it is not reasonable enough to assume that the strain in cross-section centroid is zero without considering uniform axial deformation.

Effects of time lag and stress loading rate on permeability in low permeability reservoirs

In order to study the effect of time lag and stress loading rates on rock deformation,the conventional stepped stress loading mode was changed into a continuous mode to investigate the effect of effective pressure on permeability and porosity.The time lag effect of rock deformation illustrating the relationship between changes in permeability and steady time was studied.Permeability reduction ratios were measured under different stress loading rates which were achieved by different pump rate settings.The results show that permeability and porosity gradually decrease with increases in effective pressure.Permeability at high effective pressure attains stability quickly.Steady times at low effective pressure are very long.Reduction in permeability at lower stress loading rates is small,while,in contrast,it is large at high stress loading rates.

Study on the spatial differences and its time lag effect on climatic factors of the vegetation in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region

这篇文章包括温度和降水分析 NDVI 和二个气象学的数据的关联，并且探查回答植被的敏感到温度和降水变化的空间模式。由构造 NDVIr 索引，在在纵的范围峡区域(LRGR ) 的植被盖子和陆地使用之间的关系被揭示。结论如下：(1 ) 时间落后那植被回答到温度和降水变化的效果被证明。不同区域有相应于最大的关联系数的不同延期时间。根据降水和温度联合的反应时间，也就是，三种温度降水形式被定义在一样的时间的降水和温度，在温度以前的降水和在降水以前的温度。(2 ) 敏感的空间分发，哪个对温度的植被回答，被几个高、低的散布关联中心描绘。与温度，二个感觉迟钝的区域和二条敏感的带不同被形成介绍植被的反应给降水。(3 ) NDVIr 被构造，它能完美地在 LRGR 反映在气象学的因素和陆地使用状况之间的相应关系。

环境补贴能提升企业碳绩效吗--基于A股上市公司实证分析

环境补贴既是国家实现“双碳”目标的宏观调控手段,也是减轻企业环保负担、引导企业节能减排的推动力。选取2014~2019年接受环境补贴的1094家A股上市公司3735个观测值作为研究样本,采用双向固定效应模型,实证探究环境补贴对企业碳绩效的影响。研究表明,环境补贴与企业碳绩效显著正相关且具有滞后性特征,异质性检验发现,成立时间长的企业、国有企业、东部地区与中低污染企业环境补贴作用效果显著;进一步研究发现,环境补贴中的节能减排补贴与企业碳绩效显著正相关,环境治理补贴对企业碳绩效起负向作用。据此,提出环境补贴应以降碳为重点、减污降碳协同增效为目的等建议。

从同步数据分析乔木树干液流与气象因子的关系

[目的]树干液流是研究植物蒸腾耗水的重要生理指标,树种和气象因子均是其关键影响因素。本文旨在消除树种因素限制,探讨树干液流与气象因子之间的关系。[方法]以哈尼梯田水源区3种林分中10种乔木树种为研究对象,采用Granier热扩散探针技术测定其树干液流速率,将其同步数据与气象因子进行关联分析。[结果]从次生落叶阔叶林和原生常绿阔叶林的7779条乔木树干液流速率数据中发现7条异常数据,且这些异常数据在各个树种中都表现出同步一致性;进一步关联分析表明,太阳辐射的突然增加是产生乔木树干液流数据同步上升的主要原因,而降雨则是产生树干液流数据同步下降的主要原因,两者的变化可导致其他气象因子发生变化,从而影响树干液流速率;树干液流与气象因子存在一定的时滞效应,在发生同步异常数据的气候条件下,树干液流滞后太阳辐射0~30 min,提前于饱和水汽压差、气温和湿度0~60 min,滞后或提前时间远小于正常气候条件下各树种的时滞时间。[结论]乔木树干液流受到太阳辐射和降雨等气象因子的综合调节,其中太阳辐射的影响最为显著。研究结果可为从生理生态角度探究乔木的蒸腾作用与气象因子的关系提供科学依据。

偏载作用下薄壁箱梁空间整体效应的综合分析

为了研究斜腹板箱梁在竖向偏心荷载作用下的受力性能,在合理构造各翘曲位移函数的基础上,用能量变分法建立全面反映竖向弯曲变形以及剪力滞、约束扭转、畸变等翘曲变形的控制微分方程,通过对既有文献中的模型梁进行计算分析,明确剪力滞、约束扭转及畸变翘曲应力在竖向弯曲应力中的占比情况,并揭示各翘曲广义内力的分布规律。结果表明:按文章解析法求得的模型梁应力理论值与实测值吻合良好,从而验证文章方法的合理性;在偏载作用下箱梁的约束扭转微分方程与畸变微分方程是相互耦联的,这在已有文献中往往被忽略;在剪力滞、约束扭转及畸变翘曲应力中,畸变翘曲应力占据主导地位,剪力滞和约束扭转翘曲应力相对较小,但仍不可忽略,在控制截面上因各种翘曲变形引起的应力放大系数达到1.362;偏心集中荷载引起的各翘曲广义内力均具有快速衰减的分布规律,剪力滞和约束扭转广义内力分布范围很小,而畸变广义内力分布范围广阔。建议在桥梁设计规范相关条文及实际箱梁桥设计中,对畸变效应给予充分重视。

超宽组合梁剪力滞效应分析

超宽组合梁宽高比很大,在弯矩作用下超宽组合梁的力学特性与普通梁较为不同,目前相关技术规范尚缺乏关于超宽梁有效宽度的系统化公式。为了深入分析在弯矩作用下超宽组合梁剪力滞效应引起的正应力分布不均的特征,以深汕大桥为工程背景,利用ABAQUS有限元软件建立跨中15道中横梁梁段52.5m空间壳单元有限元简支梁体系模型和采用Midas civil建立空间杆系单元全桥模型,分析在自重、车道荷载、人群荷载和吊杆杆力作用下跨中截面顶、底板和1/4跨截面顶板的正应力和剪力滞系数的分布规律。分析结果表明,超宽组合梁在荷载作用下,结构受力存在明显的剪力滞效应,目前相关技术规范关于翼缘有效宽度计算公式的安全系数比实际高1.21~1.63倍。

数字普惠金融的民生福祉效应:“红利”与“鸿沟”

数字普惠金融比传统金融具有更好的地理穿透性,为增进民生福祉,破解“胡焕庸线魔咒”提供了可能,但较少有文献对此进行系统研究。论文基于中国民生发展指数和数字普惠金融指数,利用空间统计与计量方法,从市级层面系统考察了数字普惠金融的民生福祉效应,并分析了以胡焕庸线为界的区域异质性特征。研究发现:数字普惠金融指数和民生福祉指数具有明显的空间分布异质性特点,呈现“高值向东南集聚、低值向西北集聚”的趋势。数字普惠金融与民生福祉皆存在显著的空间关联性,空间集聚特征明显且呈两极分化格局,胡焕庸线仍是两者的重要空间分界线;高-高集聚主要分布在胡焕庸线东南侧的沿海城市,低-低集聚主要分布在靠近胡焕庸线两侧的城市。数字普惠金融显著增进了民生福祉,发挥出“数字红利”的普惠作用;该作用在胡焕庸线东南侧城市显著高于西北侧城市,但两侧差距在缩小,这说明区域“鸿沟”在缩小,“胡焕庸线魔咒”有望破解。此外,研究还显示数字普惠金融的覆盖广度和使用深度是增进民生福祉的主要驱动力,而且后者的作用大于前者。因此,要加快西部地区数字基础设施与相关技术发展,提升胡焕庸线西北侧城市数字普惠金融的覆盖广度与使用深度,以增进区域民生福祉均衡性和可及性。

气候因子和人类活动对松辽流域植被叶面积指数动态的影响

了解气候变化和人类活动对植被的影响对陆地生态系统可持续发展具有重要意义。基于月尺度MODIS LAI、气象等数据,采用基于像元的趋势及偏相关分析、时滞与累积效应分析和改进的残差分析等方法,评估松辽流域2001—2021年生长季植被叶面积指数(LAI)动态,在顾及时滞与累积效应的情况下探究气候与人为驱动因素对植被的影响。结果表明:(1)松辽流域LAI总体呈“平原低,山地高”的空间分布格局。近21年植被LAI在波动中呈上升趋势,未来植被变化以持续改善为主,但内蒙古西部草原及大、小兴安岭局部地区仍存在退化风险。(2)LAI总体上与气温、降水呈正相关,相较气温植被生长对降水更敏感。LAI变化的时间效应随气候因子、覆被类型及植被分区的不同而发生变化。LAI对气温的主要时间效应为2个月滞后和0—1个月累积,而对降水主要为无显著滞后和1个月累积。(3)气候变化和人类活动的联合作用是影响松辽流域植被LAI动态的主要原因,两者对植被变化的贡献分别占41.7%和58.3%,同时考虑时滞和累积效应时,提升了气候因子对植被生长的解释度。

北京地区黄栌树干液流变化的环境驱动机制

为探究北京主要造林树种黄栌树干液流在季节与昼夜尺度上的环境调控机制,为人工林经营管理提供科学支持,以蟒山国家森林公园主要造林树种黄栌(Cotinus coggygria)为研究对象,在2021年生长季(4—9月),采用热扩散技术对黄栌树干液流速率进行原位连续观测,并同步观测环境要素如空气温度(T_(a))、相对湿度(R_(H))、光合有效辐射(PAR)和土壤体积含水量(VWC),通过回归与通径分析方法探究环境因子对树干液流的驱动机制。主要研究结果:黄栌生长季累积蒸腾量为90 mm。昼夜尺度液流速率(J′s)主要受PAR调控,呈正相关关系(R^(2)=0.93),二者到达峰值的时间存在0.5 h的时滞。季节尺度,日平均液流速率(J_(s)^(d))主要受蒸气压差(VPD)调控,VPD对液流速率的调控阈值为1.5 kPa:当VPD<1.5 kPa时,VPD直接驱动液流变化,呈正线性相关关系(R^(2)=0.94);当VPD>1.5 kPa时其对液流速率的调控作用减弱,气孔导度(g_(s))对液流速率的调控作用增强,且g_(s)随VPD的上升呈指数型下降(R^(2)=0.88)。在生长旺期(6—8月),J_(s)^(d)随T_(a)、VPD、PAR的上升而上升,但与VWC间没有明显关系。研究发现黄栌具有低耗水性,昼夜尺度液流主要受光合有效辐射限制,季节尺度液流速率主要受蒸汽压差调控,黄栌可通过调节气孔导度适应大气干旱,为北京营造水源涵养林、水土保持林树种选择提供科学依据。

基于MODIS遥感数据的福建植被生产力时空分布与干旱响应分析

全球升温导致干旱发生的范围和强度增加,但干旱对生态系统碳循环的影响还不明确。基于MODIS遥感数据,采用Sen趋势分析及Mann-Kendall检验、Pearson相关性分析等方法,通过干旱对植被生产力标准化异常的影响等信号,分析了2001-2021年福建省植被总初级生产力(Gross Primary Productivity,GPP)、净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity,NPP)的时空变化特征与干旱对其的影响及累积/滞后效应。结果表明,1)空间上,福建省植被GPP、NPP多年平均空间分布均呈现“东南高,西北低”的特征,区域平均差异分别为37.4%、65.1%;近21年以来,有近80.8%的区域GPP呈现增长趋势,主要分布在福建省南部、东南部少部分地区,主要指被类型为农田,多为热带经济水果种植的集中区域;另外,超过59.7%的区域NPP呈现下降趋势,主要出现在福建省中部及内陆山区的常绿阔叶林地和稀树草原。2)时间上,植被GPP年际波动明显,总体呈现弱增长趋势[4.86 g∙m^(−2)∙a^(−2)(以C计,下同),p=0.130],空间上,6.7%的区域年增速显著超过15 g∙m^(−2)∙a^(−2);而NPP年际变化总体呈现弱下降趋势(−1.05 g∙m^(−2)∙a^(−2),p=0.396),4.9%的区域年降速显著超过6 g∙m^(−2)∙a^(−2)。3)研究时段内福建省出现的干旱过程主要以中等干旱为主(52.5%),其次是轻旱(34.0%)。植被GPP、NPP年标准化异常指数与干旱指数(SPEI)存在显著的负相关关系,相关系数分别为−0.624(p=0.002)、−0.531(p=0.013),说明旱情越严重的年份GPP、NPP越高,而旱情较轻或无旱的年份GPP、NPP较低。干旱对GPP最明显的影响主要发生在干旱当月,累积/滞后效应时间较短;干旱事件对GPP的影响是“先增-后缓-再减”,干旱发生初期GPP呈增加趋势,而随着干旱的持续发展,GPP的增加幅度明显减弱,甚至出现负效果。

腹板高度对简支槽型梁力学特性的影响

以阿联酋铁路二期项目B标段跨度48.5 m混凝土简支槽型梁为工程背景,针对采用变截面适应大跨度、重载的受力需求,讨论了腹板高度变化对该重载铁路槽型梁空间变形、道床板双向受力和剪力滞效应等空间力学行为的影响规律。利用Midas FEA NX软件建立了4种不同变截面参数的槽型梁空间实体有限元模型,分析了自重+二期恒载、预应力、单线和双线列车荷载等工况。结果表明:增加两侧腹板的高度,可降低槽型梁道床板的竖向挠度,但会加大腹板上翼缘内倾变形;预应力荷载作用下情况相反。对于槽型梁道床板受力而言,腹板高度越高可降低道床板的纵向应力,但对横向应力无明显影响。在竖向荷载作用下,越靠近跨中位置,剪力滞效应越明显。在预应力荷载作用下,腹板高度变化对剪力滞效应的影响取决于预应力筋布置位置;当仅布置在腹板内时,剪力滞效应不受腹板高度影响。