Sedimentary Characteristics,Ages,and Environmental Significance of Gravel Deposits and Loess in Shandong,Eastern China:Regional Response to Global Change Since the Last Glacial Period

Investigation of rarely studied gravel layers found in the loess in Shandong Province,eastern China,reveals the fabric characteristics of two gravel layers(G1,G2)and the sedimentary characteristics of loess at the typical and well-preserved Heiyu section(HY),where,to determine the paleoclimatic changes during Marine Isotope Stage 3a.Optically stimulated luminescence dates of the HY formation range from 0.26±0.02 ka to 39.00±2.00 ka.In addition,the ages of G1 and G2 were estimated using the Bayesian model to be 39.60-40.50 and 29.00-29.50 ka.G1 and G2 are mainly composed of fine and medium gravel,both of which were subangular to subrounded limestone,with gravel directions to NE and E.The average flow velocity,average depth,and flood peak flow of G1 are 1.10 m/s,0.49 m,and 37.04 m^(3)/s,respectively,calculated using the flow energy method,whereas those of G2 are 0.98 m/s,0.38 m,and 18.38 m^(3)/s,respectively.Analysis of climate proxy indices show that the sedimentary environment of the gravel and loess in HY might be a regional response to global change.

Analysis on the Development Model of Relic and Museum Tourism Products Based on ERP Analysis:A Case Study on Shandong Province

In recent years, the trend of people choosing relic and museum tourism during their vacationand leisure time is growing day by day, mainly because it touches people's feelings about historical relicsand cultural heritage. The development of relic and museum tourism products is not only the inheritanceof culture and the protection of cultural relics, but also the promotion of tourism consumption under thebackground of cultural tourism integration, which has promoted the development of regional economy.With the relic and museum tourism resources in Shandong Province as the research object, through theanalysis of its resources, market and products, this paper put forward three applicable modes of relic andmuseum tourism product development, including independent development, joint development, and artauthorization, and proposed specific suggestions around the three modes.

Characteristics of Dry and Wet Climate in Shandong Province Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 116 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during 1970-2021,standardized precipitation index(SPI)was calculated,and the methods of linear fitting,mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the change trend and temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of SPI index in the past 52 years.The results show that there were more normal years in Shandong Province,and the frequency reached 38.46%.There was severe drought in the 1980s and more wet years after 2003.SPI index showed an upward trend in spring,summer and winter but a weak arid trend in autumn.In addition,intense dry weather was more frequent in summer.Spatially,the climate was normal or humid in most areas of Shandong Province.The regions with more wet years were located in the central and northeast Shandong and the peninsula,while the climate was normal in the southwest and north of Shandong.The areas with more dry years were mainly located in the northwest of Shandong Province.There was mainly local and global drought in Shandong Province,and the arid area showed a decreasing trend.In the past 52 years,Shandong Province experienced quasi-4 times of alternation between dry and wet climate.The long period of 21 a was the first main period,and the climate would be still wet in Shandong Province in the future.In terms of mutation,the climate in Shandong Province became humid after 2003,and 2003 was the mutation point.After the abrupt change,the climate changed from gradually drying to wetting.

Analysis of the Characteristics and Development Direction of Services Trade in Shandong Province of China

Shandong is a significant province for foreign trade in China;however,it still faces shortcomings in the development of its service trade,as outlined below.Firstly,the scale of service trade is limited.Shandong’s service trade volume ranked sixth in China in 2022,lagging considerably behind Shanghai,Guangdong,Beijing,Zhejiang,and Jiangsu.Secondly,the proportion of service trade in Shandong compared to the overall national services trade volume falls below the national average,with the per capita scale even lower than the national average.Thirdly,Shandong’s service trade accounts for less than 10% of the province’s foreign trade,which is 3 percentage points below the national average.The insufficient development of Shandong’s service trade is mainly attributed to the weak performance of its own service industry and the limited scale of attracting foreign services investment.Accelerating the development of producer services in Shandong,promoting the intelligent upgrading of consumer services,and continuously promoting reform and opening up in the service sector will be conducive to achieving high-quality development of services trade in Shandong.

Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

Soil Quality Evaluation and Technology Research on Improving Land Capability——A Case Study on Huanghuaihai Plain in Shandong Province

Based on the geochemical data obtained from the national project about the prevention and control of soil contamination, this paper explored the properties of soil chemical elements in Huanghuaihai Plain, Shandong Province. The results showed that among the grade-one nutritive elements in soil, organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus were relatively deficient while potassium was rich. Meanwhile, as the grade-two nutritive elements, calcium oxide and magnesium oxide were relatively short and sulfur’s content was abundant. About the other beneficial and trace nutri-tive elements, iron oxide, manganese, molybdenum and boron were deficient, but the content of chlorine was high, hardly lack. The main barriers to improving land productivity were soil salinization and soil heavy metal contamination. The values of soil integrated fertility index that most of the soil in the study area is middle-lower fertilized. Specifical y, the low fertility area and lower fertility area are 6 1604 and 1 244 km2 respectively, occupying about 97.43% and 1.97% of the total area. The moderate fertility soil has an area of 172 km2, occupying about 0.27% of the total area. The higher fertility soil covers an area of 128 km2, while the high fertility area of only 76 km2. This article proposed scientific fertilization, elimination of soil obsta-cle, remediation of heavy-metal-contaminated soil and other effective measures to improve land productivity according to the basic investigation results, which provides a good technological support for the planning and development of good-quality and high-benefit agriculture.

Application of Immersive Media Technology in Ideological and Political Theory Courses Instruction at Shandong Vocational Colleges

This paper describes how virtual classrooms and out-of-classroom instruction can be used to help students in ideological and political theory courses strengthen their identities and improve the efficiency of their assignments.By using immersive media technology,the course is turned into a form of entertainment,enriched with content,and combined with methods such as digital video editing and manipulation to meet the needs of students in university ideological and political theory courses.Virtual reality technology can create realistic virtual environments created by computers,enabling students to perceive and manipulate a variety of virtual objects,interact with them,and create a sense of immersion in the virtual environment.Research has shown the potential benefits of using immersive media technologies and augmented reality in education.The potential of virtual reality in education has been increasingly emphasized and has been widely researched and applied.

Petrogenesis of Mesozoic High-Mg Diorites in Western Shandong: Evidence from Chronology and Petro-geochemistry

The high-Mg diorites, widely occurring in western Shandong, have important implications in the study of the relationship between the Mesozoic magmatism and the nature of the lithosphere and its thinning period in the eastern North China craton （NCC）. The Tietonggou and Jinling intrusions are typically representatives. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating, major and trace element and Sr-Nd isotopic compositions of the Mesozoic intrusive rocks from western Shandong, eastern China, were analyzed. The weighted mean 106^pb/ 238^U ages from LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating results for early norite-diorite, late pyroxene-diorite from the Tietonggou intrusion and biotite-diorite from the Jinling intrusion are （131.4±4.9） Ma（n=15）, （134. 5±2.3） Ma（n=13）, and （132.8±4. 2） Ma（n=12）, respectively, implying that they were formed in the Early Cretaceous. The weighted mean 207^pb/ 204^Pb ages for round zircons from late pyroxene-diorite in the Tietonggou intrusion is （ 2 513 ± 54） Ma（ n= 8）, suggesting that the basement of the North China craton should exist in the research area. The high-Mg diorites are characterized by enrichment in MgO, Na20, and light rare earth elements （LREE）, and they are poor in heavy rare earth elements （HREE） and high field strength elements （HFSE）, being similar to adakite. The existence of the mantle peridotite xenoliths with a high-Mg feature for these intrusive rocks implies that their primary magma should be derived from the upper mantle. However, Sr-Nd isotopic composi- tions （Is： 0.704 75--0.707 15;ENd （130 Ma） values： --3.95 to -- 13.30）, depletion in HFSE, and the occurrence of Archean inherited zircons suggest that crustal materials could be involved in the derivation of the primary magma. The compositional difference between the diorites from the Tietonggou and Jinling intrusions could be attributed to those of magma sources and degrees of partial melting. The Early Cretaceous high-Mg diorites are considered to have been formed by the mixed melting of the delaminated lithosphere （lithospheric mantle ＋ crust） and asthenosphere, based on their geochemistry, the mantlederived xenoliths, and the Early Mesozoic lithospheric evolutionary history of the eastern North China craton.

Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analysis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Result] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agricultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping index and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mechanization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.

The Variation of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in Shandong Province during 1961-2008

We drew on data of daily average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature and precipitation from 78 meteorological stations during 1961-2008 of Shandong Province,analyzed the variation of extreme temperature and precipitation events.The results showed that although extreme cold days decreased by 0.23 d/a on average,after the average temperature steadily passed 10 ℃ in spring,it would still appear 1-2 days of frost,wheat and fruit trees would still suffer frozen injury every year in the central Shandong and the inland of Shandong Peninsula.Although the number of annual extreme hot days has an increasing trend obviously in Shandong and increased by 0.19 days a year.After 2000,aimed at the days of daily maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃,the mean value and standard deviation of daily maximum temperature in summer decreased comparing with the normal year in West Shandong,and decreased by 1-3 days.In recent 50 years,the extreme precipitation trend increased,but not statistically significant.The number of light rain days has a decreasing trend and decreased by 0.17 days every year,in contrast,the frequency of downpour has an increasing trend.

Ecological Restoration and Landscape Construction of Wetland——A Case Study of Planning and Design of Mi River Wetland Park in Linqu of Shandong

Based on geological characteristic of Mi River Wetland Park in Linqu of Shandong,the paper had illustrated historical and cultural spirits of Linqu,and then proposed planning strategies and contents of Mi River Wetland Park.It discussed new approaches for wetland restoration and landscape construction from the perspectives of ecological restoration of wetland system,overall construction of leisure system,and full display of regional characteristic.The construction of wetland system laid stress on water system design,terrain treatment,vegetation construction,and biological diversity creation.Wetland system would be overlaid with leisure system,divided into wetland leisure zone,wetland entertainment zone,humanity landscape zone,wetland science popular zone and wetland experience zone,all of which would be constructed with characteristic respectively.On the basis of site character,the paper had searched an energy balance and substance transformation method between rivers,plants,earth and humans,of certain practicality.

The Kiloton Class Jiaojia Gold Deposit in Eastern Shandong Province and Its Genesis

The recent deep prospecting results in the Jiaojia area of Eastern Shandong Province indicate that the Jiaojia ore field composed of several individual gold deposits as previously suggested is actually an ultra-large gold deposit.This deposit covers an area of ～40 km2,and shows a structural control by the Jiaojia fault and its secondary faults.Gold orebodies generally occur along the same mineralization-alteration belt,and the main orebodies intersect with each other or exhibit a parallel or overlapping distribution.This deposit＇s reserves are estimated to be 1,200t of gold,being the first gold deposit of more than 1000t gold reserves in China.The No.Ⅰ-1 orebody in the Shaling-deep Sizhuang ore blocks holds gold reserves greater than 350 t,or 29 percent of the total reserves,followed by the No.Ⅰ orebody in Matang-Jiaojia ore blocks with exceeding 150t gold reserves.This deposit mainly occurs in the footwall of the Jiaojia fault,and presents zoned patterns in mineralization,alteration and structures.The strongly mineralized zones agree with strongly altered and tectonically fractured zones.These orebodies display strataform-like,veinlike or lenticular shapes,and generally show characteristics of pinching out and reappearing,branching and converging,expanding and shrinking.The orebodies commonly occur along positions where the fault strike changes and in gentle locations with dips changing from steep to gentle.The main orebodies are parallel to the main plane of the orecontrolling fault,and tend to be gentle from the surface to the deep.The orebodies mainly plunge to the southwest,with plunge angle of 45°-606° Orebodies near the main plane of the ore-controlling fault have more gold resource than those away from main fault zone.The slant depth of orebodies is generally larger than the length along its strike direction; orebodies become thick and gold grades become low from the shallow area to the deep area.Ore-forming fluids are H2O-CO2-NaCl±CH4 type with medium-temperature and moderate to low salinity.Sulfur isotopic values （δ34SCDT） for gold ores range between 11.08‰ and 12.58‰,indicating mixed sulfur sources; hydrogen isotopic values （δDVSMOW） range from-83.68‰ to-116.95‰ and oxygen isotopic values （δ18OV-SMOW） range between 12.04‰ and 16.28‰.The hydrogen and oxygen isotopes suggest that ore-forming fluids originated from primary magma,and mixing with a large amount of atmospheric water during the late stage.The Eastern Shandong Province gold deposits are associated with magmatic activities which have mantle crust-mixed source,and also share some similarities with orgenic and epithermal hydrothermal golddeposits.Because Eastern Shandong Province gold deposits with unique metailogenic features and formation setting which are different from other gold deposit types in the world,we call it the Jiaojiatype gold deposits.The kiloton class Jiaojia gold deposit is related to fluid activities,extension and detachment resulted from thermal upweiling of magmas.The strong magmatic activities in the middle to late stage of early Cretaceous in Eastern Shandong Province lead to active fluids,and provided abundant ore-forming materials for gold depsoits.Moreover,many extensional structures resulting from crustal extension provided favourable space for orebody positioning.

U-Pb Zircon Age, Geochemical, and Sr-Nd-Pb Isotopic Constraints on the Age and Origin of Mafic Dykes from Eastern Shandong Province, Eastern China

U-Pb zircon age, geochemical, and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data of mafic dykes from eastern Shandong Province, eastern China is reported herein. Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry （LA-ICP-MS） U-Pb zircon analyses of two samples from the investigated mafic dykes yield consistent ages ranging from 121.9 Ma ± 0.47 Ma to 122.9 Ma ± 0.61 Ma. The mafic dykes are characterized by high （87Sr/86Sr） i ranging from 0.7087 to 0.7089, low εNd（t） values ranging from -16.9 to -17.8, 206Pb/204Pb = 17.15 to 17.17, 207Pb/204Pb = 15.45 to 15.47, and 208Pb/204Pb = 37.59 to 37.68. Results from the current study suggest that the mafic dykes are derived from partial melting of ancient lithospheric mantle that was variably hybridized by melts derived from foundered lower crustal eclogite. The mafic dykes may have been generated through subsequent insignificant crystal fractionation and very minor crustal contamination during magma ascent. Combined with previous studies, the current findings provide new evidence that the intense lithospheric thinning beneath the eastern Shandong Province of eastern China occurred at ~120 Ma, and that this condition was caused by the removal of the lower lithosphere （mantle and lower crust）.

Evaluation on Solar Radiation Resource and Photosynthetic and Thermal Potential Productivity in Shandong Province

To evaluate scientifically the change of photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity caused by climate variation,based on comparison with mean of previous 30 years(1971-2000),the change of total solar radiation,sunshine hours,photosynthetic active radiation,photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity since 2001 were analyzed through data of radiation,sunshine and temperature in Shandong Province from 1971 to 2007,and the change trend was also tested by Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical met...

Evolution, Migration, Controlling Factors and Forming Setting of Mesozoic Basins in Western Shandong

The distinctive topography in western Shandong province consists of several NW-WNW-trending mountain ranges and intervening basins. Basins, in which late-stage sediments to the south have progressively overlapped the earlier sediments and ＂basement＂ rocks of the hanging-wall block, are bounded by S-SW-dipping normal faults to the north. Basin analysis reveals the Jurassic-Cretaceous sedimentary rocks accumulated both within the area of crustal extension and during extensional deformation; they contain a record of a sequence of tectonic events during stretching and can be divided into four tectonic-sequence episodes. These basins were initially developed as early as ca. 200 Ma in the northern part of the study area, extending dominantly N-S from the Early Jurassic until the Late Cretaceous. Although with a brief hiatus due to changes in stress field, to keep uniform N-S extensional polarity in such a long time as 130 Ma requires a relatively stable tectonic controlling factor responsible for the NW- and E-W-extensional basins. The formation of the extensional basins is partly concurrent with regional magmatism, but preceded magmatism by 40 Ma. This precludes a genetic link between local magmatism and extension during the Mesozoic. Based on integrated studies of basins and deformation, we consider that the gravitational collapse of the early overthickened continental crust may be the main tectonic driver for the Mesozoic extensional basins. From the Early Jurassic, dramatic reduction in north-south horizontal compressive stress made the western Shandong deformation belt switch from a state of failure under shortening to one dominated by extension and the belt gravitationally collapsed and horizontally spread to the south until equilibrium was established; synchronously, the normal faults and basins were developed based on the model of simple-shear extensional deformation. This may be relative to the gravitational collapse of the Mesozoic plateau in eastern China.

Climatic Analysis of Continuous Rain in Southwest of Shandong

The continuous rain data from 1961 to 2007 in Heze city was analyzed in this paper.The results showed that continuous rain increased from north to south.Continuous rain processes took place most frequently in summer,next in autumn,and the least in winter.Using wavelet to analyze the sequence of seasonal and annual continuous rain,it had a 5 years cycle oscillation at 2Y(year) level and a 20 years cycle oscillation at 10Y level.An abrupt climate change of continuous rain took place in 1986.Continuous rain was in a more period from 2001 to 2010 and would decrease gradually within the period.

Energy-based marine ecological footprint in Shandong province, China

An energy-based ecological footprint model was set up to monitor the sustainable development status of a specific marine system. This model used unit energy value and energy density to convert the consumption into ecological productive areas. It can reflect the utilization degree of resources in the regional development. Then, the quantitative analysis of sustainable development was done by comparing the size of the areas. We defined the concept of energy-based ecological footprint of marine and built energy-based ecological footprint model of marine. Then we applied this model to marine ecological system of Shandong province to evaluate its sustainable development statue. The results showed that the energy-based marine ecological footprint of the marine ecological system in Shandong province was 1.74 × 106 hm^2 in 2010, and the energy-based ecological carrying capacity of this area was 1.60×107 hm^2 per capita. Thus, the marine ecological system of Shandong province has strong sustainability.

Provenance analysis of surface sediments in the Holocene mud area of the southern coastal waters off Shandong Peninsula,China

The sedimentary record of mud areas is an important carrier of information on the Holocene evolution of marine environments. Based on fine interpretations of the shallow stratigraphic section data, a small mud deposit area has been found in the southern coastal waters off Shandong Peninsula. This mud area is mainly distributed in coastal waters north of Laoshantou to the vicinity of Rushan Estuary. Overall, it is parallel to the coastline and spreads in a banded pattern, gradually thinning from offshore to the sea. The isopach map of depth distribution is parallel with the shoreline, and the depocenter lies in coastal waters of the Aoshan Bay where the maximum thickness is up to 22.5 m. Accelerator mass spectrometry（AMS） ^（14）C dating shows that the mud area was formed in the Holocene. The test data of surface sediments from the mud area, including particle size, mineral characteristics, and rare earth element contents, are used in comparisons with the composition of materials from the major surrounding medium and small rivers flowing into the sea and the Huanghe（Yellow） River. In this paper, the sedimentary characteristics and provenance of the mud deposit area are discussed. The results show that the formation of this mud area resulted from the joint action of the Huanghe River and surrounding rivers flowing into the sea.

SHRIMP Zircon U-Pb Dating of the Tongshi Magmatic Complex in Western Shandong and Its Geological Implications

The SHRIMP U-Pb zircon dating result of the Tongshi magmatic complex in western Shandong is presented in this paper. The Tongshi magmatic complex comprises fine-grained porphyritic diorite and syenitic porphyry. Eighteen analyses for fine-grained porphyritic diorite gave two concordia ages, in which ten analyses constitute the young age group, giving ^206Pb/^238U ages ranging from 167.9 Ma to 183 Ma with a weighted mean age of 175.7±3.8 Ma, and the other eight yielded ^207Pb/^206Pb ages of 2502 Ma to 2554 Ma with a weighted mean 2518±11 Ma. Two analyses for syenitic porphyry gave ages of 2485 Ma and 2512 Ma, respectively. The age of 175.7±3.8 Ma indicates that the crystallization of the Tongshi magmatic complex occurred in the Middle Jurassic, whereas that of 2518±11 Ma is interpreted as the age of inherited magmatic zircons in the Neoarchean Wutai period.

STUDY ON THE MAIN CLIMATE MODES OF SHANDONG PRECIPITATION AND THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE EAST ASIAN WESTERLY JET

Summer precipitation patterns of Shandong Province are relatively independent with regard to the whole eastern China region.To study the rules and causes of precipitation variations,three main climate modes-on the annual,seasonal,and climatic intra-seasonal oscillation(CISO) scales-are extracted using a harmonic analysis method based on daily precipitation of Shandong during 1965-2009 and multi-year averaged pentad precipitation at 722 stations in China during 1971-2000.Among the three precipitation climate modes,the annual mode is closely related to the annual cycle of Earth-Atmosphere thermal system,which is characterized by the periodic dry and wet seasons.The seasonal mode reflects the monsoon effect on precipitation and the main flood season's contribution to annual precipitation variations.As an important climatic signal,the CISO mode is more evident during summer monsoon.The gradual modulations of the CISO mode,seasonal mode,and annual mode control the annual variation of precipitation.To study the relationship between precipitation climate modes and atmospheric circulations,an East Asian Westerly Jet Index(EAWJI) is defined in this paper.It is revealed that precipitation of Shandong is closely related to EAWJI in all climate modes.A wet or dry phase of each climate mode corresponds to a specific atmospheric circulation pattern.The phase of the annual mode is reverse to that of EAWJI.During the wet phase of the seasonal mode(weak phase of EAWJI),the atmospheric circulation in and around Shandong is characterized by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.A reversed atmospheric circulation exists for the dry phase(strong phase for EAWJI).In the summer wet phase of CISO mode(strong phase of EAWJI),Shandong is controlled by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.Again,the dry phase is corresponding to a reversed circulation structure.The methodology employed in this research,i.e.studying the precipitation climatic variations in terms of independent components of different temporal scales,provides a new approach for annual and seasonal precipitation prediction.