Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.

Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.

FACILITATING REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH INTEGRATED MULTI-OBJECTIVE UTILIZATION, MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE LANCANG-MEKONG RIVER BASIN

The Lancnag Mekong River is the most important international river across China and Southeast Asia, If it is developed according to 'Great Mekong Subregional Cooperation Plan' [9] prepared by ADB, the area directly affected will be up to over 2.32 million km 2, the population over 220 million, and the natural environment, and socio-economic conditions within a large area will be greatly changed. 'Agreement on Cooperation for Sustainable Development of Mekong Basin' signed by the four riparian countries along the lower Mekong River on April 5, 1995 provides a new opportunity for sustainable development of the Basin. According to preliminary analysis, if the multipurpose utilization of the water resources is the target for carrying out integrated planning and management, and the efforts are made 1) to focus on energy exploitation on the Lancang River Mainstream and the tributaries of the lower Mekong River; 2) to build gated weirs at Tonle Sam; 3) to construct spillways at the Mekong Delta; 4) to facilitate flood dykes in big cities and on both banks of the mainstream which are concentrated with population and farmland and liable to be flooded, and 5) to strengthen networks for forecasting hydrological and meteorological conditions, then all problems such as power demand, irrigation, flood, salt water intrusion as well as acid water erosion to soil could be solved without constructing large cascaded stations and dams on the lower Mekong Mainstream. This will not only avoid input of great number of fund, large scale resettlement and land inundation, but also prevent aquatic organisms living in Mekong River from being injured due to dam construction, and promote the sustainable development of the Basin.

Environmental and Human Impacts of Lancang-Mekong Mainstem and Tributary Dams on China, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam

The Lancang-Mekong River in China, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam is the soul and heart of mainland Southeast Asia. Over 60 million people depend on the river and its tributaries for food, transportation, water, and other necessities of life. The river supports one of the world’s most diverse fisheries, second only to Brazil’s Amazon River. Lancang-Mekong and tributaries are already heavily dammed primarily in China, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia, with many more dams planned or under construction. Dams can worsen the impact of periodic droughts in the Lancang-Mekong basin and block the river’s “pulse effect” that spreads water and nutrients needed for fishing and farming onto the floodplains and delta. The headwaters of the Lancang are in China and its waters are considered a national resource. China regards the Lancang, Yangtze and Yellow rivers as a free resource rather than a shared resource. The primary difference between these rivers is the Lancang flows from China into and through other countries and not directly into a sea or ocean. China and Myanmar have not joined the Mekong River Commission (MRC) as full members but have been Dialogue Partners since 1996. Over the past thirty years, China’s Lancang policies and actions have reflected its national resource interests. China has actively engaged with individual transboundary countries at various levels including environmental, conservation, and economic agreements. The primary objective of this study is to assess the environmental and human impacts of all Lancang-Mekong mainstem and tributary dams and the plans by many countries for more hydropower utilizing the potential of the river as the continent’s energy lifeline. Future dams need to include fish ladders and navigation locks to reduce the environmental impacts on fish populations, natural resources, navigation, and livelihoods. Strengthening of international collaboration via the MRC or by individual or multiple country agreements to address Lancang-Mekong’s sustainable transboundary development goals is recommended. When new Lancang-Mekong and tributary dams are built within any of the transboundary watershed countries, additional communities will need to be resettled. Significant environmental and human impacts are observed. Steps will have to be taken by all the concerned countries to prevent these problems and to ensure that people’s livelihoods are restored after resettlement.

Soil and water loss in the Lancang River-Mekong River watershed (in Yunnan section, China) and its control measures

According to a lot of hydrological and environmental monitoring data, the condition of soil and water loss in the Lancang River Mekong River watershed (in Yunnan section, China) is described. The occurrence and development of soil and water loss is analyzed. The conclusion is that: (1) generally, the situation of soil and water loss in the Lancang River Mekong River watershed (in Yunnan section, China) is light, however, soil and water loss in some regions is serious, especially in the middle reach area of the river; (2) soil and water loss in the Lancang River Mekong River (in Yunnan section, China) watershed presents developing tendency and it is mainly caused by human beings. In accordance with these results, the control measures for soil and water loss are discussed.

Morphological Characteristics of Cambodia Mekong Delta and Tonle Sap Lake and Its Response to River-Lake Water Exchange Pattern

Tonle Sap Lake is the largest river-connected lake, buffer area and ecological zone of Mekong River, which plays a huge role in dispelling flood peak and compensating water, and the conservation of biological diversity. The river-lake relationship between Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake is unique and has always been a major focus in the international community. The land terrain and under-water topography were used to analyze the morphological characteristics of Cambodia Mekong Delta and Tonle Sap Lake. Long series of hydrological data of river-lake controlling stations were used to analyze the water level variation characteristics and water volume exchange pattern between Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake, and the response relationship to river-lake morphological characteristics were also researched. The results show that: Cambodia Mekong Delta and Tonle Sap Lake Area is low-lying and flat with gentle channel gradient and water surface gradient, making the relationship between water level and area (or volume) smooth. The channel storage capacity of Mekong River and Tonle Sap River is not enough compared to the inflow, so vast flooding plain is extremely prone to be inundated, making the flood relationships between the left and right banks become very complicated. Tonle Sap Lake is a seasonal freshwater lake with water flowing in and flowing out, and the timing and intensity of water exchange with Mekong River are closely related to the water flow resistance at the exit section of Tonle Sap Lake and the cross-sectional area of Tonle Sap River, which can be reflected by the river-lake water level difference and the water level of Tonle Sap River. Affected by the river-lake morphological characteristics, the water exchange intensity between Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake is great. Tonle Sap Lake not only stores 14.4% of flood volume (39.7 billion m3) from the Mekong River every year, but also supplies 29.7% of dry water (69.4 billion m3) to the Mekong River. Influenced by the adjustment of the floodplain, the water level fluctuation of Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake is slow, and the rising and droop rates of water level are positively correlated with the floodplain storage area. The research results will help to understand the relationship mechanism between Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake and provide a scientific basis for the comprehensive governance of Cambodia Mekong Delta and Tonle Sap Lake Area.

Projection of temperature change and extreme temperature events in the Lancang–Mekong River basin

The Lancang–Mekong River basin(LMRB) is under increasing threat from global warming. In this paper, the projection of future climate in the LMRB is explored by focusing on the temperature change and extreme temperature events. First, the authors evaluate the bias of temperature simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Then, correction is made for the simulation by comparing with observation based on the non-parametric quantile mapping using robust empirical quantiles(RQUANT) method. Furthermore, using the corrected model results, the future climate projections of temperature and extreme temperature events in this basin during 2016–35, 2046–65, and 2080–99 are analyzed. The study shows that RQUANT can effectively reduce the bias of simulation results. After correction, the simulation can capture the spatial features and trends of mean temperature over the LMRB, as well as the extreme temperature events. Besides, it can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of the major modes. In the future, the temperature will keep increasing, and the warming in the southern basin will be more intense in the wet season than the dry season. The number of extreme high-temperature days exhibits an increasing trend, while the number of extreme low-temperature days shows a decreasing trend. Based on empirical orthogonal function analysis, the dominant feature of temperature over this basin shows a consistent change. The second mode shows a seesaw pattern.

The Pulses of the Mekong River Basin: Rivers and the Livelihoods of Farmers and Fishers

The transboundary Mekong River is shared by six SE Asia countries (China, Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam). In this paper the livelihoods of farmers and fishers of Lao PDR, Cambodia and Vietnam are examined to assess impacts of Mekong River development and modernization projects on the rural peoples of the Mekong River and Delta. A high proportion of the 190 million rural people of the Mekong basin are dependent on the diverse and abundant resources of the Mekong River and its tributaries for food security and basic necessities, livelihoods, and cultural identities. Although rice farming and fisheries occupations are primary income sources, many livelihoods involve a diversity of on-farm and off-farm activities. Agricultural specialization and intensification and hydropower dam construction on the Mekong main stem and tributaries are altering traditional rural patterns of household food security, income, and cultural ways of living at an increasingly rapid pace. Rural transformation projects must better assess how these modernization efforts change the ecology of the Mekong River and in turn affect the capacity of rural people to adapt in ways that ensure food security and improve household livelihoods. It will be critical that development efforts recognize, value, and invest in rural people’s roles in producing a stable, affordable food system and managing the integrity of river ecosystems upon which future prosperity depends. Interventions are needed to prevent degradation of the Mekong Basin soil and water resources from large-scale agricultural intensification, water diversion and overbuilding of hydropower dams which are threats to small-scale land holdings and farmers and fishers capacities to provide daily food for their own consumption and to feed SE Asia’s growing urban populations.

The Challenges of Integrated Management of Mekong River Basin in Terms of People’s Livelihood

Mekong River Basin is a life for many people in six south East Asian countries. The river basin is very productive and has crucial activities like: fishing, agriculture, hydroelectric power, transportation, biodiversity and so on. However, due to mismanagement, political intentions and one way interest only for development, the river basin has already started experiencing complications. The major challenges found out were, huge hydroelectric dam constructions and other projects, high population pressure, lack of cooperation among riparian states (especially upper Mekong region and lower one), and lack of proper management system. This leads to inequitable resource use, impact on water quality, biodiversity loss, and disasters like flooding. It is a high time to make a joint venture among riparian countries for sustainable use of the resource. Multi lateral cooperation and commitment among user countries by consulting all stakeholders will benefit all to use this precious resource equitably without major ecological impacts on the river basin.

Groundwater status and associated issues in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin： International collaborations to achieve sustainable groundwater resources

Groundwater is an important and readily available source of fresh water in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin. With a rapid population growth and increasing human activities, an increasing number of countries in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin are experiencing depleted and degraded groundwater supplies. In transboundary river basins, such as the Mekong-Lancang River, prioritizing the use of the shared aquifer by one riparian government may affect the opportunities of other riparian governments and lead to potential water conflicts between neighboring countries. To promote the sharing of strategies and information for the sustainable and equitable use of water resources of the shared basin, international collaborative workshops on groundwater resources have been organized for all Mekong-Lancang River countries. These workshops provide an opportunity to communicate and discuss nationally sensitive issues on groundwater by the associated countries, with topics covering multiple aspects of groundwater, such as the groundwater status in the basin, quality issues, water use conflicts, hydrological information gaps, management policies and capacity building for successful water resource management. Consensus has been reached by all countries on the importance of catchment-based groundwater management and the need for close communication among the countries. Strategies for managing transboundary aquifer issues must foster international collaboration based on the regional network, influence national networks and enhance the capacity to building maps and monitoring systems based on associated databases. The sustainability of water resources cannot be achieved without the integrated involvement and contributions by multiple countries and various stakeholders. Therefore, collaborative workshops provide a great opportunity to further our understanding of the hydrologic processes of the Mekong River Basin, share the benefits of the aquifer and provide a strategy and vision for sustainable water resource management in the Mekong-Lancang River countries.

Evaluation of Transboundary Water Resource Development in Mekong River Basin: The Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Context of Water Cooperation

Mekong River is one of the major international freshwater sources in the world. The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) comprised of four downstream countries, including Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The utilization of the basin’s water brings not only substantial benefits to the region ranging from hydropower to navigation, but also negative impacts caused by the unbalanced water using. The essential role of Mekong River requires all member nations to cooperate effectively for the sustainable development of the region. One of the most popular methods in the field of water resource management is a trustable tool called the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP is much appropriate for water resource policymaking. The literature, however, points out that there is no study to both structure the water using hierarchy and employ quantitative (objective) criteria to the AHP model in LMB case. With regard to water resource management, there are no previous studies applying AHP models to evaluating sustainable development of transboundary water resource in LMB case. This paper explores the evolution of water cooperation among Mekong countries and subsequently evaluates the water development scenarios in the LMB based on the water cooperation preferences of four LMB countries This study proposes a novel approach to analyzing, assessing water resource development scenarios characterized by sustainability indicators and to assisting in developing a suitable water policy in LMB according to the best cooperation scenario.

Assessing Livelihood Vulnerability to Salinity Intrusion and Climate Variability--A Case Study in Coastal Provinces of the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam

Both ST(Soc Trang)and KG(Kien Giang)are coastal provinces of the Mekong River Delta and are most vulnerable to saline intrusion and climate variability.In 2016,thousands of Hhs(Households)in these coastal provinces were at risk due to severe drought and saline intrusion.This study applied the LVI(Livelihood Vulnerability Index)to estimate saline intrusion vulnerability of those two provinces.Data on socio-demographics,livelihoods,health,social networks,physical,financial and natural resources,natural disasters and climate variability were collected from a survey of 298 Hhs.From these data,the LVI of each coastal province was calculated.Results show that the overall LVI of KG province is higher than that of ST province.The analysis revealed that this practical method can be applied in different circumstances of climate change and purposes.

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

The Changes of Water Quality in Space and Time in the Mekong River, Bassac River and Adjacent Waterways

Catfish （Pangasianodon hypophthalmus） farming along Mekong river and Bassac river depends heavily on water quality of the two rivers, whereas water quality of these rivers are affected by the waste of aquaculture activities, agricultural production, industrial and municipal waste. This report analyzes the monitoring data on Mekong river, Bassac river and adjacent waterways in the period of 2011-2012, focusing on parameters of organic pollution to assess the current quality of these two rivers. Based on the results, the water quality in the river-head was generally better than in the middle and at the end of the river, and the quality of water of the Mekong river was better than Bassac river. In terms of time, water quality in July was considered the best in all the basins. At adjacent natural rivers and canals, ammonia levels increased and exceeded the Vietnamese standard in April, and BOD values were also much higher compared to two major rivers. The results of the model also showed that the levels of pollution index of the Mekong and Bassac river were very low （1.33 and 1.47）, and the values （Y） in the canals were higher （1.63-1.67） but still in permitted level. Therefore, the water quality of the Mekong and Bassac river in the period 2011-2012 was generally still quite good.

Assesment of Frequency-Magnitude of Extreme Rainfall Events-Case Study of the MeKong River Delta

Extreme rainfall events are primary natural hazards, which cause a severe threat to people and their properties in populated cities, which are normally located in coastal areas in Vietnam. Analysing these events by using a data series observed over years will support us to draw a picture of how the climate change impact on local environments. The purpose of this report is to understand the characteristics of the extreme rainfall events in MEKONG river delta （south VietNam）. Daily rainfall data in the period of 30 years for a meteorological station in each area were collected from the Vietnam National Hydro-meteorological Service. The extreme rainfall events were defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile for each station. The analytical results show that the rainfall values （95th percentile） are 37.4 mm/day at Nam Can station, 27 mm/day at My Thanh station, 22.4 mm/day at Hoa Binh station, 23.8 mm/day at Binh Dai station and 22.7 mm/day at Ben Trai station. The highest rainfall data ever recorded are 246.4 mm/day （Nam Can）, 174.5 mm/day （My Thanh）, 179 mm/day （Hoa Bin_h）, 187.3 mm/day （Binh Dai） and 136.3 mm/day （Ben Trai） during 1983-2012. The result of the Mann-Kendall tests show that there was a significant creasing of the rainfall at Nam Can, My Thanh station in two periods （1983-2012, 1998-2012） while no clear trend of the rainfall was recoreded at Hoa Birth, Binh Dai, Ben Trai station. In order to estimate the return period of the extreme rainfall events, the method General Extreme Value Distribution was used to calculate frequent distribution. The magnitudes of daily maximum rainfall were from 2 to 100 years. The results of return period show that maximum rainfalls are 46.6 mm at Nam Can station （highest） and 31.4 mm at Hoa Birth station （lowest） during 50 years. Similarly, maximum rainfalls are expected to be about 55.1 mm at Nam Can station and 37.2 mm at Hoa Birth station for 100 years.

Using Artificial Neural Network to Estimate Sediment Load in Ungauged Catchments of the Tonle Sap River Basin, Cambodia

Concern on alteration of sediment natural flow caused by developments of water resources system, has been addressed in many river basins around the world especially in developing and remote regions where sediment data are poorly gauged or ungauged. Since suspended sediment load (SSL) is predominant, the objectives of this research are to: 1) simulate monthly average SSL (SSLm) of four catchments using artificial neural network (ANN);2) assess the application of the calibrated ANN (Cal-ANN) models in three ungauged catchment representatives (UCR) before using them to predict SSLm of three actual ungauged catchments (AUC) in the Tonle Sap River Basin;and 3) estimate annual SSL (SSLA) of each AUC for the case of with and without dam-reservoirs. The model performance for total load (SSLT) prediction was also investigated because it is important for dam-reservoir management. For model simulation, ANN yielded very satisfactory results with determination coefficient (R2) ranging from 0.81 to 0.94 in calibration stage and 0.63 to 0.87 in validation stage. The Cal-ANN models also performed well in UCRs with R2 ranging from 0.59 to 0.64. From the result of this study, one can estimate SSLm and SSLT of ungauged catchments with an accuracy of 0.61 in term of R2 and 34.06% in term of absolute percentage bias, respectively. SSLA of the AUCs was found between 159,281 and 723,580 t/year. In combination with Brune’s method, the impact of dam-reservoirs could reduce SSLA between 47% and 68%. This result is key information for sustainable development of such infrastructures.

Climate change and groundwater resources in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Groundwater resources have considerable influences on the human population and socioeconomic development of Vietnam and the Mekong River Delta(MRD). This paper presents an overview of the relationship between climate change and groundwater in the MRD, including the challenges, strategies and technical measures. Our results showed that groundwater levels are related to other climate and hydrological variables(i.e., rainfall, river levels, etc.); therefore, the impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of the Mekong delta are significant, especially on groundwater recharge. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that groundwater development in the future should focus on reducing groundwater harvesting, enhancing groundwater quantity by establishing artificial works and exploiting surface water. This study suggests that the Artificial Neural Network(ANN) model is an effective tool for forecasting groundwater levels in periods of 1 month and 3 months for aquifers in the natural and tidal regime areas of the delta.

EFFECTIVENESS OF REGIONAL TOURISM INTEGRATION—Case of Quadrangle Economic Cooperation Zone in Great Mekong Region

The Quadrangle Economic Cooperation Zone in Great Mekong Region, where the Golden Triangle is located, is composed with the border areas of China, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar. The poorest and inaccessible remote Golden Triangle now faces the opportunity to develop and participate in the global economic system. Not only has the traditional border tourism between two countries in this region been growing rapidly and various tourism products cross the regions also have been developed. The article attempts to explore the multiplier effects of tourism on regional cooperation. These consequences of tourism cooperation take effect through the infrastructure improvement, facilitation of the flee movement, improvement of communication and promotion of the alternative economy. The study also points out the unexpected negative consequences to limit its role as a regional cooperative engine due to the lack of consideration of the dual economic and social structure in tourism development. The special attention should be drawn to consider the limited benefits for the marginalized community, the high transaction of the social costs related with the drug tourism and sex tourism. The paper calls for more rigorous cooperative regional plans and policies to the complexity of tourism development in this region.

基于多维Copula函数的澜沧江-湄公河流域气象干旱特征分析

为全面揭示变化环境下澜湄流域多维气象干旱特征,采用标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI表征流域气象干旱,基于游程理论分别提取澜沧江段和湄公河段上、中、下游流域1901—1960年和1961—2021年两个时段的干旱事件,利用Copula函数分别构建两个时段不同子流域二维和三维干旱特征变量联合分布,计算不同干旱特征变量组合条件下的干旱联合发生概率,对比分析不同子流域多维气象干旱特征的时空变化。结果表明:时间上,1961—2021年各子流域平均干旱程度均较1901—1960年更严峻,尤其是极端干旱事件(单变量累积频率为25%、50%)的多维干旱联合发生概率增幅最大;空间上,1961—2021年,随着干旱历时、烈度和烈度峰值的增加,“或”情况下多维干旱联合发生概率最高值区自北向南转移,“且”情况下多维干旱联合发生概率最高值区自南向北转移。

Southwest China and Southeast Asia: towards sustainability through cooperative development and management of international rivers

The western part of China borders on South and Southeast Asia. Of the numerous well known international rivers sharing with the two regions, the Lancang Mekong River has been most extensively studied in the world for its important strategic position, rich resources, prosperous potential market as well as considerable opportunities for investment and development. The sustainable multipurpose development in this area has increasingly become the focus of international regional cooperation, and great attention has been paid to this area by the international society. Up to now, at least 10 major actions in the international regional cooperation are expected in this area. This paper intends, at the angle of geography and with the overall target of promoting the sustainable development in the basin through international cooperations, to study the international position, the potential and the prospects for development of the Lancang Mekong River, to analyze the main problems in this international cooperation, to propose targets and prospects for such cooperation, and to indicate the way for geographers to participate in such research.