Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate:CMIP6 projections

It is of practical significance to use the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to study the impact of changes in land‒sea thermodynamic contrast(TC)on the Asian summer monsoon under different scenarios and to compare the similarities and differences of the impact mechanisms between different monsoon regions.In this study,we investigated future changes of the Asian summer monsoon under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios using 19 CMIP6 models.The intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)is projected to decrease by 2.6%,6.3%,10.1%,and 11.1%,while the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)intensity is projected to increase by 4.6%,7.9%,7.4%,and 9.8%until the end of the 21st century for SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.Moreover,summer precipitation in Asia is projected to increase remarkably in 2015-2099 under all four scenarios.The inconsistent warming trends over the Tibetan Plateau(TP),Northwest Pacific,and tropical Indian Ocean would greatly impact the monsoon circulations.The upper-troposphere warming trend over the surrounding oceans is remarkably greater than that over the TP,while the near-surface warming trend over the surrounding oceans is smaller than that over the TP.The decrease of upper-troposphere TC between the TP and tropical Indian Ocean results in a weakening of the SASM circulation.The enhancement of the lower-troposphere TC between the TP and Northwest Pacific would strengthen the EASM circulation.Moisture budget analysis shows that the water-vapor would increase in the future,which would thermodynamically enhance summer precipitation through the anomalous vertical moisture transport associated with mean flow.The strengthening of the meridional circulation of the EASM would increase monsoon precipitation,while the weakening of zonal circulation of the SASM would dynamically reduce South Asian summer precipitation.

A Case Modeling of Sea-Land Breeze in Macao and Its Neighborhood

PSU / NCAR MM5 was utilized to simulate the sea-land breeze circulation in Macao and the three-dimensional flow around the Pearl River estuary. Four two-way nested grids having resolution of 1, 3, 9, and 27 km were included in the simulation. It was initialized with conventional observational data, and a 30 h simulation and analysis of one sea-land breeze case were performed. It was shown, that the model with a finer resolution (1 km) captures the sea breeze and land breeze in Macao with reasonable skill. The sea breeze front and the thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) were also obviously revealed. However, the coarser horizontal resolution (3 km) could capture the sea breeze but not the land breeze.

THERMAL INFLUENCES OF LAND-SEA CONTRAST AND TOPOGRAPHY ON SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998

In this work, the SCSMEX data are used to diagnose and compare the local land-sea thermal conditions, with the focus of discussion on possible influences of thermal forcing of the western Pacific and the Tibetan Plateau on the onset and development of summer monsoon in 1998. Results show a close relationship between the distribution of the heat sources and the land-sea contrast. Due to the blocking effect of terrain, main maximum zones of the heat sources in areas with more evident north-south land-sea contrast are more obviously southward located than those exclusively with oceans. The surface heating is characterized with apparent seasonal variation and difference between land and sea. The relationship between the western Pacific and the onset of summer monsoon is reflected in the variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the latent heat. The influence mechanism of the Tibetan Plateau during the summer monsoon is different: it is dominated by sensible heating during the South China Sea monsoon and by condensed latent heating during the Indian monsoon.

Analytic Study of Sea-Land Breezes

An analytic study of the structure of sea-land breezes is presented, with special attention paid to the dependence on the model parameters. In this linearized model, the wind speed of the sea-land breezes is directly proportional to the difference of sea and land heating rates. For the same differential heating, the sea-land breeze is more prominent if the stratification is weakly stable, or if the frictional force is small. The horizontal penetration from the coast is also investigated, and found to be asymmetric between the land and the sea. The above results are in agreement with observation.

The Role of Land–sea Distribution and Orography in the Asian Monsoon. Part I: Land–sea Distribution

A number of AGCM simulations were performed by including various land–sea distributions （LSDs）, such as meridional LSDs, zonal LSDs, tropical large-scale LSDs, and subcontinental-scale LSDs, to identify their effects on the Asian monsoon. In seven meridional LSD experiments with the continent/ocean located to the north/south of a certain latitude, the LSDs remain identical except the southern coastline is varied from 40 ° to 4 ° N in intervals of 5.6° . In the experiments with the coastline located to the north of 21° N, no monsoon can be found in the subtropical zone. In contrast, a summer monsoon is simulated when the continent extends to the south of 21 ° N. Meanwhile, the earlier onset and stronger intensity of the tropical summer monsoon are simulated with the southward extension of the tropical continent. The effects of zonal LSDs were investigated by including the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean into the model based on the meridional LSD run with the coastline located at 21 °N. The results indicate that the presence of a mid-latitude zonal LSD induces a strong zonal pressure gradient between the continent and ocean, which in turn results in the formation of an East Asian subtropical monsoon. The comparison of simulations with and without the Indian Peninsula and Indo-China Peninsula reveals that the presence of two peninsulas remarkably strengthens the southwesterly winds over South Asia due to the tropical asymmetric heating between the tropical land and sea. The tropical zonal LSD plays a crucial role in the formation of cumulus convection.

Impact of Sea-Land Interaction on Evolution of Taihu Lake

Analyzed in this paper are the influencing factors, characteristics, and mechanism of land-sea interaction for the Taihu Lake Basin. The course of mass movement and energy transformation between land and sea in the Taihu Lake Basin has experienced three different stages, namely, ocean predominance, balance between land and sea, and land predominance. In the paper the process of the formation and the evolution of the Taihu Lake is studied considering the land-sea interaction.

Effects of Land-Sea Distribution, Topography and Diurnal Change on Summer Monsoon Modeling

The effects of the land-sea distribution, the topography and the diurnal change of the solar radiation on the summer monsoon modelings are studied by use of a coupled modeling system with a 5-layer primitive equation model of the atmosphere and a 2-layer soil or ocean thermodynamic model which are all solved in a zonal model domain between 60°S and 60°N. The results of numerical simulations show that the quasi-stationary patterns of the mean monsoon circulations are mainly affected by the land-sea distribution and the topography, the effect of the diurnal change is the secondary. However, the inclusion of the diurnal change into the model system may improve the intensity of the simulated monsoon circulation, it can influence the distributive pattern of precipitation to a larger extent,without the diurnal change precipitation in the interior of land would decrease and in the coastal regions it would increase.

Numerical Modelings of the Climatic Effects of the Land-Sea Distribution and Topography

The effects of the land-sea contrast and the topography on the climatic properties are simulated rn this paper by use of a p- a incorporated coordinate system mode! in a zonal domain.In this paper we firstly discuss the statistical features of the model and find that the capability of the model is stable,with the same land-sea distribution and topography seven monthly mean climate states are close to one another,their variance is even less than the initial one.Secondly,we focally discuss the effects of the land-sea contrast and the topography on the modeled climate fields.It is pointed out that the land-sea contrast and the topography influence the atmosphere mainly through the heating ef-fect and the former has larger influences on the simulated large scale climate fields than the latter.

EAWM-Related Air-Sea-Land Interaction and the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

The research of sea-land breeze (SLB) on the west coast of Bohai Bay based on field observation

Four automatic meteorological stations were set up in a line from beach to inland perpendicular to the west coast of Bohai Bay. Wind direction and velocity at altitudes of 2 m, 4 m and 12 m were surveyed with 10 minute intervals. On ＂Sea-Land Breeze＂ （SLB） days, the transition from sea breeze to land breeze was very evident in the study area. Direction of sea breeze was basically perpendicular to the coast and mainly from the ENE and E. Duration of sea breeze varied by the stations＇ distance to the coastline, and the near-coast wind velocity was larger than that of the inland and decreases as it reaches inland. There was increased development of SLB on sunny days than on overcast days. The term ＂Climatic Coastal Zone＂ can be defined for the area influenced by SLB, which reaches more than 74 km inland on a typical SLB day but less than 10 km on a non-typical SLB day.

The Land Subsidence and Relative Sea Level Rise in Chinese Delta Areas

Based on some experts’ research effort, the problems of land subsidence and relative sea level rise in three Chinese delta areas (Huanghe, Changjiang and Zhujiang Delta) are analyzed and discussed in this paper. The authors’ opinion is that the land subsidence is mainly induced by human activity and has made the greater contributions to the relative sea level rise and become one of the geological hazards in these areas. In Tianjin and Shanghai areas where had ever existed serious land subsidence problem, due to the positive and effective control methods, the ratio of man-induced land subsidence to relative sea level rise decreased from 80%-90% in 1960s-1970s to less than 60% at present. But it is estimated that in the next tens of years this ratio will still be considerable. So human being must keep its eyes on this phenomenon and take more positive countermeasures to control the land subsidence.

向海图强:奋力谱写中国式现代化广西篇章的重要使命与历史责任

党的十八大以来,习近平总书记分别于2017年、2021年和2023年三次视察广西。2023年12月,习近平总书记视察广西时强调,广西要“解放思想、创新求变,向海图强、开放发展”。广西背靠大西南、毗邻粤港澳、面向东南亚,具有沿江、沿海、沿边与东盟“一湾相挽十一国,良性互动东中西”的独特区位优势。向海之路为奋力谱写中国式现代化广西篇章指明方向,向海发展是广西破茧成蝶的根本出路,向海经济是广西高质量发展的重要引擎,向海图强已成为广西新时代新征程的新起点。向海图强既是广西的机遇和优势,也是广西的责任和使命。伴随着系列相关政策文件、战略规划和行动计划的相继颁布实施,广西向海经济发展新格局初步形成。平陆运河建成通航后,将形成广西及西南地区通往东盟的运距最短、最经济、最便捷的运输通道。陆江湾海的联动将撬动区域经济版图,推动形成国内国际双循环战略链接的枢纽。2023年12月习近平主席应邀访问越南具有标志性意义,确立了构建具有战略意义的中越命运共同体,开启了中越两党两国关系发展的新阶段,谱写了新时代中越关系的新篇章,将更有利于广西的向海图强、开放发展。

破解海岸带环境司法困境:基于陆海统筹原则

我国海岸带环境案件存在管辖权冲突、法律适用有争议、原告资格不明确、诉讼性质认定有争鸣、诉讼程序衔接未确定、司法执行机制不完善等环环相扣的问题,造成海岸带环境司法困境。究其根源,主要在于陆海“二分法”的分类思维影响较大,其与陆海统筹合为表里的内涵尚未得到全面、深入的理解。为破解海岸带环境司法困境,既要重视海岸带环境案件的特殊性,将其确立为类型化案件并由海事法院专门管辖,又要贯彻陆海统筹原则,实现司法规则内在融贯、法治环节协调一致。

The Relationship of Land-Ocean Thermal Anomaly Difference with Mei-yu and South China Sea Summer Monsoon

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1948-2004 and the monthly rainfall data at 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2004, the relationships among the land-ocean temperature anomaly difference in the mid-lower troposphere in spring （April-May）, the mei-yu rainfall in the Yangtze River- Huaihe River basin, and the activities of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） are analyzed by using correlation and composite analyses. Results show that a significant positive correlation exists between mei-yu rainfall and air temperature in the middle latitudes above the western Pacific, while a significant negative correlation is located to the southwest of the Baikal Lake. When the land-ocean thermal anomaly difference is stronger in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） will be weaker and retreat eastward in summer （June-July）, and the SCSSM will be stronger and advance further north, resulting in deficient moisture along the mei-yu front and below-normal precipitation in the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and vice versa for the weaker difference case. The effects and relative importance of the land and ocean anomalous heating on monsoon variability is also compared. It is found that the land and ocean thermal anomalies are both closely related to the summer circulation and mei-yu rainfall and SCSSM intensity, whereas the land heating anomaly is more important than ocean heating in changing the land-ocean thermal contrast and hence the summer monsoon intensity.

中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目简介及最新进展

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。

THE FLUX OF LAND-BASED SOURCE POLLUTANTS FROM TUMEN RIVER SYSTEM ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN

The influence of land based source pollutants to marine ecological environment is principally in coastal or enclosed sea waters. Flux of land based source pollutants into the sea will be effected due to social and economic development in the Tumen River basin. Pollutant type and primary pollution factor of the Tumen River in Northeast China is described by weighted coefficient method in this paper. The results indicate that the river is organic pollution type and primary pollution factor is COD. Fresh water fraction proves that the estuary is not affected by tide cycle. COD annual flux entering the Sea of Japan calculated by zero dimension model in 1993 was 90.50 ×10 3 tons. It is estimated with emission coefficient method that the COD will be 176.4 ×10 3 and 458.6 ×10 3 tons for the years of 2000 and 2010 respectively.

关于打通铁路网运输能力堵点对策探究

国铁企业落实党中央部署要求并加快推进铁路货运市场化改革,采取有效措施尽快打通铁路网运输能力堵点,有效降低物流成本。通过分析路网总体规模、旅客运输供给能力、货物运输保障能力等铁路网运输能力现状,剖析铁路网运输能力堵点及成因。在此基础上,提出加强铁路网运输能力经验借鉴,探析打通铁路网运输能力堵点对策,即:畅通普速干线通道,加强煤运通道能力保障,强化中欧班列通道能力,完善港口铁路通过能力,增强西部陆海新通道线路能力,完善枢纽点线配套能力,强化铁路货运设施设备卸车能力等方面,在助力降低全社会物流成本中发挥“火车头”的重要作用。

学习贯彻习近平总书记在新时代推动西部大开发座谈会和视察重庆的重要讲话重要指示精神

为了深入学习贯彻习近平总书记在新时代推动西部大开发座谈会和视察重庆的重要讲话重要指示精神,本刊组织专家围绕党的十八大以来习近平总书记对重庆所作重要讲话和系列重要指示批示精神,结合西南政法大学的实际展开笔谈。本笔谈旨在深入学习贯彻习近平总书记视察重庆重要讲话重要指示精神,围绕法治赋能助力高水平共建西部陆海新通道、党纪学习教育应把握的“五个辩证统一”原则、优化治理机制以提升超大城市社会治理水平、有效防范化解超大城市“新兴风险”等议题,提出了一系列切实可行的建议与措施,以期有益于坚持以国家战略需求为导向,积极融入服务大局,以铁的纪律护航党的事业稳健发展,推动超大城市治理体系与治理能力现代化进程,确保党的事业行稳致远。

黄河三角洲地面沉降研究进展与未来展望

黄河三角洲是我国成陆时间最短的大型河口三角洲,由于其发育背景特殊、地质环境系统不稳定以及人类活动影响,地面沉降较为显著,引发了诸多环境问题,对自然环境和社会经济发展产生了严重威胁。从监测技术和成因机理角度出发,系统综述了黄河三角洲地区的地面沉降现状:(1)黄河三角洲地面沉降受新生地层自然压实、人为建筑重力压实、河流陆源输入减少、地下水与卤水开采、石油天然气开采以及海洋动力作用相对增强等多重因素影响,需要更详细、更系统地研究,特别是定量分离人为与自然因素在地面沉降的贡献方面,需要与其他学科如地质、岩土、力学、数学等交叉进行综合定量分析;(2)黄河三角洲地面沉降的长时空尺度的持续监测与分析、历史周期分析与未来判断分析需加强,尤其要重视海陆相互作用对地面沉降的长期和短期影响的研究;(3)地面沉降勘查、监测和精度研究及沉降评估和环境影响监测研究,尤其是海岸带退蚀与地面沉降之间的耦合关系等问题仍待深入。在今后研究黄河三角洲地面沉降的过程中,应更加注重理论模型的深入探究和新技术方法的实践,机理研究应扩展至多种模型研究;预测灾害时,应扩展到与地面沉降问题较为紧密的地面开裂、断层以及地裂缝等研究上。此外,还应对地面沉降的社会经济影响和环境影响等方面做出更多探索和实际应用。全面系统深入地了解黄河三角洲地面沉降现象,可为有效地实施三角洲生态保护和资源开发提供理论依据,具有重要的科学意义和社会经济价值。

基于陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价方法探讨

海洋、海岸带蕴含的资源丰富,与人类生存发展息息相关。近年来,随着海洋经济的迅速增长,自然岸线和滨海湿地面积减少、生物多样性降低、典型生态系统受损、近岸海域灾害频发、渔业资源减少等问题日益显现。如何从战略高度提升海洋经济,开发和保护并举,确保海岸带、海洋资源取用合理是新时代的重要课题。陆地和海洋是生态系统不可分割的组成部分,开展陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价是衡量区域经济发展与生态环境是否协调可持续发展的有效途径。文章系统地梳理了承载力概念的发展历程,对比了常用的海洋资源环境承载力评价方法,初步构建了陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价指标体系,并提出使用熵值法来确定指标权重,采用状态空间评价模型或TOPSIS模型进行承载力综合评价,可以体现陆地和海洋相互影响、相互制约的关系,并具有较强的可操作性,评价结果可以反映区域资源环境承载力的空间差异或随时间变化情况,能够为海洋和海岸带保护利用提供有效借鉴。