AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A LANDING TYPHOON

Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment field.The results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast phase.Changes in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made landfall.The steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the members.Meanwhile,the forecast uncertainty increased.In summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some instances.The position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h forecast.The strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.

Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.

A preliminary analysis of physical mechanism of transformation process from a landed typhoon into an extratropical cyclone

A diagnostic study is performed in the paper on the process of typhoon Norris (1980) transforming into an ex-tratropical cyclone after its landing over Southeast China. The main findings are as follows:The changes of kinetic energy are mainly attributed to the generation due to non-divergent wind. During the early stage of the typhoon landing, there exits only a small quantity of kinetic energy exchanging with the environment. And after it is transformed into an extratropical cyclone, a large amount of kinetic energy is exported from the system toward the environment.The horizontal and vertical flux-divergence terms of eddy available potenlial energy are the prominent sinks in the budgets of eddy kinetic energy. The generations of eddy kinetic energy due to both the barotropic and baroclinic processes are source terms. The former is remarkable during the initial stage. But after the depression is transformed into an extratropical cyclone, the roles of the generation by the barotropic and baroclinic processes are reversed, 1. e. , the latter has become more significant than the former.Diabatic heating is the most dominant heat source. The terms of vertical heat flux by cumulus and large-scale motion are the major sinks. And the latter is prominent after the system is transformed into an extratropical cycfone.

A Study on a Heavy Rainfall Event Triggered by an Inverted Typhoon Trough in Shandong Province

A heavy rainfall event that occurred in Shandong Province in 26 28 August 2004 was caused mainly by Typhoon Acre and cold air activities related to a westerly trough. The event was triggered by an inverted typhoon trough, which was closely associated with the intensification of the low-level southeasterly flow and the northward transport of heat and momentum in the periphery of the typhoon low. A numerical simulation of this event is performed using the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 with two-way interactive and triply-nested grids, and the structure of the inverted typhoon trough is studied. Furthermore, the formation and development mechanism of the inverted typhoon trough and a mesoscale vortex are discussed through a vorticity budget analysis. The results show that the heavy rainfall was induced by the strong convergence between the strong and weak winds within the inverted typhoon trough. Dynamic effects of the low-level jet and the diabatic heating of precipitation played an important role in the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex. The vorticity budget analysis suggests that the divergence term in the low troposphere, the horizontal advection term, and the convection term in the middle troposphere were main contributors to positive vorticity. Nonetheless, at the same pressure level, the effect of the divergence term and that of the adveetion term were opposite to each other. In the middle troposphere, the vertical transport term made a positive contribution while the tilting term made a negative contribution, and the total vorticity tendency was the net result of their counteractions. It is found that the change tendency of the relative vorticity was not uniform horizontally. A strong positive vorticity tendency occurred in the southeast of the mesoscale vortex, which is why the heavy rainfall was concentrated there. The increase of positive vorticity in the low （upper） troposphere was caused by horizontal convergence （upward transport of vorticity from the lower troposphere）. Therefore, the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex were mainly attributed to the vorticity generated in the low troposphere, and also the vertical transport of vorticity from the low and middle troposphere.

Effects of typhoon "KAI-TAK" on deep ocean ambient noise in the South China Sea

By investigating the effects on deep ocean ambient noise of typhoon ＂KAI-TAK＂ which passed the north area of the South China Sea,it is shown that the wind speed,the rainfall intensity and the long wave swell caused by typhoon affect the ocean ambient noise significantly.The correlation between the ocean ambient noise and the wind speed during the typhoon is much better than that in the non-typhoon period in the same Beaufort scale.Analysis of the correlation between the 415 h ocean ambient noise measured data and wind speed shows that,when the frequency is greater than 300 Hz,the correlation coefficient between the ocean ambient noise and the wind speed is greater than 0.5,achieving a moderate correlation;when the frequency is greater than 630 Hz,the correlation coefficient is between 0.8 and 0.9,achieving a high degree of correlation.The correlation between the ocean ambient noise and the wind speed is better than that between the ocean ambient noise and the significant wave height when the frequency is greater than 300 Hz.The correlation between the ocean ambient noise and the wind speed in infrasonic band from 10 Hz to 20 Hz is poor in the South China Sea,because the shipping is busy in this sea area and the ocean ambient noise is contaminated by the ship noise even during the typhoon.