Early warning system for shallow landslides using rainfall threshold and slope stability analysis

A combined cluster and regression analysis were performed for the first time to identify rainfall threshold that triggers landslide events in Amboori, Kerala, India. Amboori is a tropical area that is highly vulnerable to landslides. The 2, 3, and 5-day antecedent rainfall data versus daily rainfall was clustered to identify a cluster of critical events that could potentially trigger landslides. Further, the cluster of critical events was utilized for regression analysis to develop the threshold equations. The 5-day antecedent(xvariable) vs. daily rainfall(y-variable) provided the best fit to the data with a threshold equation of y = 80.7-0.1981 x. The intercept of the equation indicates that if the 5-day antecedent rainfall is zero, the minimum daily rainfall needed to trigger the landslide in the Amboori region would be 80.7 mm. The negative coefficient of the antecedent rainfall indicates that when the cumulative antecedent rainfall increases, the amount of daily rainfall required to trigger monsoon landslide decreases. The coefficient value indicates that the contribution of the 5-day antecedent rainfall is～20% to the landslide trigger threshold. The slope stability analysis carried out for the area, using Probabilistic Infinite Slope Analysis Model(PISA-m), was utilized to identify the areas vulnerable to landslide in the region. The locations in the area where past landslides have occurred demonstrate lower Factors of Safety(FS) in the slope stability analysis. Thus, rainfall threshold analysis together with the FS values from slope stability can be suitable for developing a simple, cost-effective, and comprehensive early-warning system for shallow landslides in Amboori and similar regions.

Probabilistic analysis of embankment slope stability in frozen ground regions based on random finite element method

Prediction on the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields of embankment and cutting slopes is essential to the assessment on evolution of melting zone and natural permafrost table, which is usually a key factor for permafrost embankment design in frozen ground regions. The prediction may be further complicated due to the inherent uncertainties of material properties. Hence, stochastic analyses should be conducted. Firstly, Karhunen-Loeve expansion is applied to attain the random fields for hydraulic and thermal conductions. Next, the mixed-form modified Richards equation for mass transfer （i.e., mass equation） and the heat transport equation for heat transient flow in a variably saturated frozen soil are combined into one equation with temperature unknown. Furthermore, the finite element formulation for the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields is derived. Based on the random fields, the stochastic finite element analyses on stability of embankment are carried out. Numerical results show that stochastic analyses of embankment stability may provide a more rational picture for the distribution of factors of safety （FOS）, which is definitely useful for embankment design in frozen ground regions.

Rock-soil slope stability analysis by two-phase random media and finite elements

To investigate the strong random nature of the geometric interfaces between soil and rock, a rock-soil slope is considered as a two-phase random medium. A nonlinear translation of a Gaussian field is utilized to simulate the two-phase random media, such that the soil(or rock) volume fraction and the inclination of the soil layer can be examined. The finite element method with random media incorporated as the material properties is used to determine the factor of safety of the rock-soil slope. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate the statistical characteristics of the factor of safety. The failure mode of the rock-soil slope is examined by observing the maximum principal plastic strain at incipient slope failure. It is found that the critical surface of a rock-soil slope is fairly irregular, and it significantly differs from that of a pure soil slope. The factor of safety is sensitive to the soil volume faction, but it is predictable. The average factor of safety could be well predicted by the weighted harmonic average between the strength of soil and rock; the prediction model is practical and simple. Parametric studies on the inclination of the soil layer demonstrate that the most instable scenario occurs when the slope angle is consistent with the inclination of the soil layer.

Finite element analysis of slope stability by expanding the mobilized principal stress Mohr's circles-Development, encoding and validation

In recent years,finite element analysis is increasingly being proposed in slope stability problems as a competitive method to traditional limit equilibrium methods(LEMs)which are known for their inherent deficiencies.However,the application of finite element method(FEM)to slope stability as a strength reduction method(SRM)or as finite element limit analysis(FELA)is not always a success for the drawbacks that characterize both methods.To increase the performance of finite element analysis in this problem,a new approach is proposed in this paper.It consists in gradually expanding the mobilized stress Mohr’s circles until the soil failure occurs according to a prescribed non-convergence criterion.The present approach called stress deviator increasing method(SDIM)is considered rigorous for three main reasons.Firstly,it preserves the definition of the factor of safety(FOS)as the ratio of soil shear strength to the mobilized shear stress.Secondly,it maintains the progressive development of shear stress resulting from the increase in the principal stress deviator on the same plane,on which the shear strength takes place.Thirdly,by introducing the concept of equivalent stress loading,the resulting trial stresses are checked against the violation of the actual yield criterion formed with the real strength parameters rather than those reduced by a trial factor.The new numerical procedure was encoded in a Fortran computer code called S^(4)DINA and verified by several examples.Comparisons with other numerical methods such as the SRM,gravity increasing method(GIM)or even FELA by assessing both the FOS and contours of equivalent plastic strains showed promising results.

Finite element analyses of slope stability problems using non-associated plasticity

In recent years, finite element analyses have increasingly been utilized for slope stability problems. In comparison to limit equilibrium methods, numerical analyses do not require any definition of the failure mechanism a priori and enable the determination of the safety level more accurately. The paper compares the performances of strength reduction finite element analysis(SRFEA) with finite element limit analysis(FELA), whereby the focus is related to non-associated plasticity. Displacement-based finite element analyses using a strength reduction technique suffer from numerical instabilities when using non-associated plasticity, especially when dealing with high friction angles but moderate dilatancy angles. The FELA on the other hand provides rigorous upper and lower bounds of the factor of safety(FoS) but is restricted to associated flow rules. Suggestions to overcome this problem, proposed by Davis(1968), lead to conservative FoSs; therefore, an enhanced procedure has been investigated. When using the modified approach, both the SRFEA and the FELA provide very similar results. Further studies highlight the advantages of using an adaptive mesh refinement to determine FoSs. Additionally, it is shown that the initial stress field does not affect the FoS when using a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion.

Preliminary slope stability analysis and discontinuities driven susceptibility zonation along a crucial highway corridor in higher Himalaya, India

Identification of failure susceptible slopes through different rock engineering approach is highly valuable in landslide risk management along crucial highway corridors in the high mountainous region. In this study, a critical highway(NH-5) segment in higher Himalaya has been investigated using the various rock mass characterization schemes based on detailed field observations. Since the highway corridor is highly susceptible to discontinuities-driven failures, consisting of jointed rock masses;Mean and Combined kinematic feasibility analysis has been performed for 20 highway slopes. Observed slope mass classes have been compared to the feasibility percentage of discontinuities driven failures(wedge, toppling, and planar) and accordingly the kinematic feasibility zonation along highway segment has been done for each as well as overall failure types. Based on the slope mass conditions and discontinuities driven failures probability(%), responsive remedial measures have been proposed for individual highway slopes to ensure safe and uninterrupted transportation.

Engineering Geological and Geotechnical Studies of Taprang Landslide, West-central Nepal: An Approach for Slope Stability Analysis

Detailed investigation of Taprang landslide was carried out in order tounderstand the surface, subsurface lithological information and physicalproperties of soil by using multi-disciplinary methods such as engineeringgeological, geophysical and geotechnical studies for the determinationof factor of safety for slope stability analysis. Geological study wascarried out by detail mapping of surface geology, soil condition, propertiesof bedrock and its discontinuities. The geophysical survey (ElectricalResistivity Tomography-ERT) were carried out to know the electricalresistivity of soil for identifying the groundwater table and slip surface ofthe landslide. Geotechnical analysis such as grain size analysis, liquid limitand direct shear test were carried out in order to evaluate soil classification,moisture content, cohesion and the angle of internal friction of soil forknowing the strength the soil. These soil parameters indicate the soil is verylow strength. The combination of these results were used for calculatingthe factor of safety (FoS) by Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) proposedby Bishop and Janbu methods. The result of factor of safety in the Tapranglandslide demonstrates that the slope become stable in drained (dry)condition, remain ultimate stage in undrained (wet) condition and finallyfailure occurs if applied the seismic load in both drained and undrainedconditions.

Stress analysis on large-diameter buried gas pipelines under catastrophic landslides

This paper presents a method for analysis of stress and strain of gas pipelines under the effect of horizontal catastrophic landslides. A soil spring model was used to analyze the nonlinear characteristics concerning the mutual effects between the pipeline and the soil. The Ramberg–Osgood model was used to describe the constitutive relations of pipeline materials. This paper also constructed a finite element analysis model using ABAQUS finite element software and studied the distribution of the maximum stress and strain of the pipeline and the axial stress and strain along the pipeline by referencing some typical accident cases. The calculation results indicated that the maximum stress and strain increased gradually with the displacement of landslide.The limit values of pipeline axial stress strain appeared at the junction of the landslide area and non-landslide area. The stress failure criterion was relatively more conservative than the strain failure criterion. The research results of this paper may be used as a technical reference concerning the design and safety management of large-diameter gas pipelines under the effects of catastrophic landslides.

Numerical analysis of downward progressive landslides in long natural slopes with sensitive clay

Landslides occurring in sensitive clay often result in widespread destruction,posing a significant risk to human lives and property due to the substantial decrease in undrained shear strength during deformation.Assessing the consequences of these landslides is challenging and necessitates robust numerical methods to comprehensively investigate their failure mechanisms.While studies have extensively explored upward progressive landslides in sensitive clays,understanding downward progressive cases remains limited.In this study,we utilised the nodal integration-based particle finite element method(NPFEM)with a nonlinear strain-softening model to analyse downward progressive landslides in sensitive clay on elongated slopes,induced by surcharge loads near the crest.We focused on elucidating the underlying failure mechanisms and evaluating the effects of different soil parameters and strainsoftening characteristics.The simulation results revealed the typical pattern for downward landslides,which typically start with a localised failure in proximity to the surcharge loads,followed by a combination of different types of failure mechanisms,including single flow slides,translational progressive landslides,progressive flow slides,and spread failures.Additionally,inclined shear bands occur within spread failures,often adopting distinctive ploughing patterns characterised by triangular shapes.The sensitive clay thickness at the base,the clay strength gradient,the sensitivity,and the softening rate significantly influence the failure mechanisms and the extent of diffused displacement.Remarkably,some of these effects mirror those observed in upward progressive landslides,underscoring the interconnectedness of these phenomena.This study contributes valuable insights into the complex dynamics of sensitive clay landslides,shedding light on the intricate interplay of factors governing their behaviour and progression.

Rock slope stability evaluation in static and seismic conditions for left bank of Jinsha River Bridge along Lijiang-Xamgyi'nyilha railway, China

Jinsha River Bridge is located along the Lijiang-Xamgyi＇nyilha railway on the southeastern Tibet plateau; it is an area with a high prevalence of earthquakes. The bridge abutments were designed to be constructed in river bank slopes, where rocks are controlled by two sets of joint planes that significantly influence the stability of the left bank slope. According to the engineering-geological conditions and the characteristics of discontinuities, strength properties of the rock mass were obtained based on Barton model and direct shear test. Numerical analyses were performed using FLAC3D software to examine the slope＇s response to seismic loading. Then in order to evaluate the damage trends of the rock mass under the different loading conditions, a calculation model based on the geological parameters and slope stability was simulated and analyzed using the discrete element numerical simulation program UDEC （Universal Dis- tinct Element Code）, and the effect of degradation of discontinuities on the slope stability was investigated. The results show that the destruction of rock mass under the gravity, bridge foundation, and seismic load are mainly concentrated within 30 m depth of slope, and the slope under loading may slide along joint planes. In addition, the dynamic analysis by amplification of the input loading indicates that instability occurs to the bank slope at a height of about 200 m, and rock blocks will fail under seismic load. Therefore, to prevent the slope from deformation under the engineering loading and strong earthquakes, the bridge foundation should be strengthened.

Finite element reliability analysis of slope stability

The method of nonlinear finite element reliability analysis (FERA) of slope stability using the technique of slip surface stress analysis (SSA) is studied. The limit state function that can consider the direction of slip surface is given, and the formula-tions of FERA based on incremental tangent stiffness method and modified Aitken accelerating algorithm are developed. The limited step length iteration method (LSLIM) is adopted to calculate the reliability index. The nonlinear FERA code using the SSA technique is developed and the main flow chart is illustrated. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of this method. It is found that the accelerating convergence algorithm proposed in this study proves to be very efficient for it can reduce the iteration number greatly, and LSLIM is also efficient for it can assure the convergence of the iteration of the reliability index.

A pseudo-coupled numerical approach for stability analysis of frozen soil slopes based on finite element limit analysis method

To simplify the stability analysis of frozen soil slope, a pseudo-coupled numerical approach is developed. In this approach, the coupled heat transfer and water flow in frozen soils are simulated first, and based on the computed thermal-hydro field, the stability of frozen soil slope is evaluated. Although the shear strength for frozen soil is very complicated and is usually represented by a nonlinear MC failure criterion, a simple linear MC yield criterion is utilized. In this method, the internal friction angle is expressed as a function of volumetric ice content and the cohesion is fitted as a simple bilinear expression of Tand volumetric water content. To assess slope stability, the limit analysis is employed in conjunction with the recently developed a-section search algorithm. A frozen soil slope example is used to examine the proposed pseudo-coupled numerical approach, and numerical studies validate its effectiveness. Based on numerical results, it is seen that slope stability may be remarkably influenced by warming air （or grotmd surface） temperature. With increasing ground surface temperature, slope stability indicated by FOS may reduce to 1.0, implying that wanning air temperature could be a trigger of frozen soil slope failure.

Stability assessment of landslide-prone road cut rock slopes in Himalayan terrain:A finite element method based approach

Large-scale slope destabilization could be aggravated due to swift urbanization and ever-rising demands of geoengineering projects such as dams,tunnels,bridges and widening roads.National Highway-58 connects Delhi to Badrinath in India,which passes through complex geomorphological and geological terrain and often encounters cut slopes susceptible to slope failures.In the present investigation,a detailed geotechnical appraisal is conducted along the road cut slopes from Rishikesh to Devprayag in the Himalayas.Twenty vulnerable road cut slopes were demarcated for detailed slope stability analysis using Phase2D finite element modeling simulator.Nonlinear generalized Hoek-Brown(GHB)criterion was adopted for stability analyses.Out of 20 slopes,five slopes(S6,S7,S18,S19 and S20)are unstable with factor of safety(FoS)less than or equal to 1,and thus needs immediate attention.The FoS values of four slopes(S2,S9,S13 and S17)lie between 1 and 1.3,i.e.marginally stable,and slopes S1,S3,S4,S5,S8,S10,Sll,S12,S14,S15 and S16 are stable.Mohr-Coulomb(MC)criterion was also adopted to compare the slope stability analysis with GHB criterion.The FoS calculated from GHB criterion is close to that using MC criterion for lower values of FoS whereas for higher values,the difference is marked.For the jointed rock in the Himalayan region,the nonlinear GHB criterion gives better results as compared to MC criterion and matches with the prevailing field conditions.Accordingly,some suggestions are proposed to strengthen the stability of cut slopes.

A Simplified Numerical Approach for the Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Retrogressive Landslides

Retrogressive landslides are common geological phenomena in mountainous areas and on onshore and offshore slopes. The impact of retrogressive landslides is different from that of other landslide types due to the phenomenon of retrogression. The hazards caused by retrogressive landslides may be increased because retrogressive landslides usually affect housing, facilities, and infrastructure located far from the original slopes. Additionally, substantial geomorphic evidence shows that the abundant supply of loose sediment in the source area of a debris flow is usually provided by retrogressive landslides that are triggered by the undercutting of water. Moreover, according to historic case studies, some large landslides are the evolution result of retrogressive landslides. Hence the ability to understand and predict the evolution of retrogressive landslides is crucial for the purpose of hazard mitigation. This paper discusses the phenomenon of a retrogressive landslide by using a model experiment and suggests a reasonably simplified numerical approach for the prediction of rainfall-induced retrogressive landslides. The simplified numerical approach, which combines the finite element method for seepage analysis, the shear strength reduction finite element method, and the analysis criterion for the retrogression and accumulation effect, is presented and used to predict the characteristics of a retrogressive landslide. The results show that this numerical approach is capable of reasonably predicting the characteristics of retrogressive landslides under rainfall infiltration, particularly the magnitude of each landslide, the position of the slip surface, and the development processes of the retrogressive landslide. Therefore, this approach is expected to be a practical method for the mitigation of damage caused by rainfall-induced retrogressive landslides.

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.

Finite element analysis of dynamic stability of skeletal structures under periodic loading

This paper addresses the dynamic stability problem of columns and frames subjected to axially applied periodic loads. Such a structure can become unstable under certain combinations of amplitudes and frequencies of the imposed load acting on its columns/beams. These are usually shown in the form of plots which describe regions of instability. The finite element method (FEM) is used in this work to analyse dynamic stability problems of columns. Two-noded beam elements are used for this purpose. The periodic loading is decomposed into various harmonics using Fourier series expansion. Computer codes in C++ using object oriented concepts are developed to determine the stability regions of columns subjected to periodic loading. A number of nu-merical examples are presented to illustrate the working of the program. The direct integration of the equations of motions of the discretised system is carried out using Newmark’s method to verify the results.

Slope Stability Evaluations by Limit Equilibrium and Finite Element Methods Applied to a Railway in the Moroccan Rif

Since 1930, the analysis of slope stability is done according to the limit equilibrium approach. Several methods were developed of which certain remain applicable because of their simplicity. However, major disadvantages of these methods are (1) they do not take into account the soil behavior and (2) the complex cases cannot be studied with precision. The use of the finite elements in calculations of stability has to overcome the weakness of the traditional methods. An analysis of stability was applied to a slope, of complex geometry, composed of alternating sandstone and marls using finite elements and limit equilibrium methods. The calculation of the safety factors did not note any significant difference between the two approaches. Various calculations carried out illustrate perfectly benefits that can be gained from modeling the behavior by the finite elements method. In the finite elements analysis, the shape of deformations localization in the slope is nearly circular and confirms the shape of the failure line which constitutes the basic assumption of the analytical methods. The integration of the constitutive laws of soils and the use of field’s results tests in finite elements models predict the failure mode, to better approach the real behavior of slope soil formations and to optimize its reinforcement.

Finite element analysis of displacements of double pile-column bridge piers at steep slope

In order to study bearing characteristics of bridge pile at steep slope under complex loads in mountians, according to double pile-column bridge piers engineering at steep slope and test models in laboratory, finite element analysis of pile-column bridge piers was carried out using software ADINA under different loadings, such as horizontal loading in the longitudinal direction along bridge, vertical loadings, slope top loadings and complex loadings. The numerical simulation results show that displacements of front pile pier top and back pile pier top are different under horizontal loadings in the longitudinal direction along bridge or vertical loadings, the displacements of front pile pier top are higher than those of back pile pier top, and its difference increases with the increase of loadings. Vertical displacements will also appear under slope top loadings, and displacements of front pier top are higher than those of back pier top too, while its difference reduces with the increase of loadings. Displacements of both front pile pier top and back pile pier top under comlex loading are larger than those under single loading.

APPLICATION OF STOCHASTIC FINITE ELEMENT METHOD TO STRENGTH AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF EARTH DAMS

This paper applies the stochastic finite element method to analyse the statistics of stresses in earth dams and assess the safety and reliability of the dams. Formulations of the stochastic finite element method are briefly reviewed and the procedure for assessing dam's strength and stability is described. As an example, a detailed analysis for an actual dam Nululin dam is performed. A practical method for studying built-dams based on the prototype observation data is described.

Slope stability analysis under seismic load by vector sum analysis method

The vibration characteristics and dynamic responses of rock and soil under seismic load can be estimated with dynamic finite element method （DFEM）. Combining with the DFEM, the vector sum analysis method （VSAM） is employed in seismic stability analysis of a slope in this paper. Different from other conventional methods, the VSAM is proposed based on the vector characteristic of force and current stress state of the slope. The dynamic stress state of the slope at any moment under seismic load can he obtained by the DFEM, thus the factor of safety of the slope at any moment during earthquake can be easily obtained with the VSAM in consideration of the DFEM. Then, the global stability of the slope can be estimated on the basis of time-history curve of factor of safety and reliability theory. The VSAM is applied to a homogeneous slope under seismic load. The factor of safety of the slope is 1.30 under gravity only and the dynamic factor of safety under seismic load is 1.21. The calculating results show that the dynamic characteristics and stability state of the slope with input ground motion can be actually analyzed. It is believed that the VSAM is a feasible and practical approach to estimate the dynamic stability of slopes under seismic load.