Today our school held a sports meeting.It began at 8 o’clock.Many students joined~①it.There were~②high jump,long jump,50-metre race,100-metre race and so on.In Boys’1,000-metre race,Zhang Fan from Class 3 had a fa...Today our school held a sports meeting.It began at 8 o’clock.Many students joined~①it.There were~②high jump,long jump,50-metre race,100-metre race and so on.In Boys’1,000-metre race,Zhang Fan from Class 3 had a fall on the first lap,and~③he stood up and went on running.Many students stood up and cried,"Well done!Come on!"展开更多
Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment fail...Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure.With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters,the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events,such as large-scale winter sports sites,cannot be ignored.In this study,a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model(NAEA model)is proposed.Based on the results of the NAEA model,a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established.Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis,it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites.Simultaneously,improving the early warning capability,reliability of electrical equipment,and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents.In addition,an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.展开更多
文摘Today our school held a sports meeting.It began at 8 o’clock.Many students joined~①it.There were~②high jump,long jump,50-metre race,100-metre race and so on.In Boys’1,000-metre race,Zhang Fan from Class 3 had a fall on the first lap,and~③he stood up and went on running.Many students stood up and cried,"Well done!Come on!"
基金supported by the Beijing Nova Program(Grant No.Z201100006820072).
文摘Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure.With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters,the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events,such as large-scale winter sports sites,cannot be ignored.In this study,a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model(NAEA model)is proposed.Based on the results of the NAEA model,a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established.Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis,it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites.Simultaneously,improving the early warning capability,reliability of electrical equipment,and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents.In addition,an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.
