The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchan...The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.展开更多
This paper outlines a two-stage assessment procedure for deriving probabilities of unique events.The calculations are illustrated using possible events pertaining to the Lehman failure in 2008.The procedures utilize p...This paper outlines a two-stage assessment procedure for deriving probabilities of unique events.The calculations are illustrated using possible events pertaining to the Lehman failure in 2008.The procedures utilize pairwise comparisons associated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process.Typical betting odds are used to motivate an ordering of qualitative judgments that are then converted into quantitative assessments and finally a probability distribution.展开更多
Decision-makers in unique or one-off situations may have difficulties in framing the probabilities of possible events that are required in modern decision-making. This paper illustrates a new approach to probability d...Decision-makers in unique or one-off situations may have difficulties in framing the probabilities of possible events that are required in modern decision-making. This paper illustrates a new approach to probability determination based on pairwise primary judgments on the relative likelihoods of the possible events. Related “news” on the situation can also be used to update these prior probabilities using Bayesian Revision. Illustrative calculations outline the entire process through to determination of posterior probabilities following a “news” event.展开更多
The expression for the electron density of states (EDOS) of high temperature superconductors (HTS) has been derived taking the disorder and anharmonicity effects as a central problem. This has been dealt with the help...The expression for the electron density of states (EDOS) of high temperature superconductors (HTS) has been derived taking the disorder and anharmonicity effects as a central problem. This has been dealt with the help of double time thermodynamic Green’s function theory for electrons via a generalized Hamiltonian which consists of the contribution due to 1) unperturbed electrons;2) unperturbed phonons;3) isotopic impurities;4) anharmonicities (no BCS type Hamiltonian has been taken up in the formulation);and 5) electron-phonon interactions. The renormalization effects and emergence of pairons appears as a unique feature of the theory and dependence of EDOS on impurity concentration and temperature has been discussed in details with special reference to the HTS.展开更多
文摘The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.
文摘This paper outlines a two-stage assessment procedure for deriving probabilities of unique events.The calculations are illustrated using possible events pertaining to the Lehman failure in 2008.The procedures utilize pairwise comparisons associated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process.Typical betting odds are used to motivate an ordering of qualitative judgments that are then converted into quantitative assessments and finally a probability distribution.
文摘Decision-makers in unique or one-off situations may have difficulties in framing the probabilities of possible events that are required in modern decision-making. This paper illustrates a new approach to probability determination based on pairwise primary judgments on the relative likelihoods of the possible events. Related “news” on the situation can also be used to update these prior probabilities using Bayesian Revision. Illustrative calculations outline the entire process through to determination of posterior probabilities following a “news” event.
文摘The expression for the electron density of states (EDOS) of high temperature superconductors (HTS) has been derived taking the disorder and anharmonicity effects as a central problem. This has been dealt with the help of double time thermodynamic Green’s function theory for electrons via a generalized Hamiltonian which consists of the contribution due to 1) unperturbed electrons;2) unperturbed phonons;3) isotopic impurities;4) anharmonicities (no BCS type Hamiltonian has been taken up in the formulation);and 5) electron-phonon interactions. The renormalization effects and emergence of pairons appears as a unique feature of the theory and dependence of EDOS on impurity concentration and temperature has been discussed in details with special reference to the HTS.
