Joint Probability Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Conditions in Liaodong Bay

Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong Bay.The joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then performed.Results show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice condition.In addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.

Features of the fault system and its relationship with migration and accumulation of hydrocarbon in Liaodong Bay

The fault system of Liaodong Bay developed extensively under the control of the Tanlu Fault. The fault system can be grouped into strike-slip faults of grade Ⅰ, trunk faults of grade Ⅱand branch faults （induced faults） of grade Ⅲ respectively based on its developmental scale. The faults of grade Ⅰ and Ⅱwere deep, early and large while the faults of grade Ⅲwere shallow, late and small. The formation, evolution and distribution features played a significant role in controlling the migration of oil and gas in both horizontal and vertical directions. The fluid transfer in the fault system occurred in the process of faulting. The strike-slip and trunk faults moved actively forming predominant pathways for oil and gas migration. The branch faults, with weak activity, generally controlled the development of traps and were beneficial for the accumulation and preservation of oil and gas. The faults of grade Ⅰ and Ⅱ formed the major migration pathways for oil and gas, but their fault activity rates appeared to vary along their strikes. The zones with a relatively low fault activity rate might be favorable for oil and gas accumulation. When the activities of strike-slip, trunk, and branch faults came to a halt, the fault seal behavior had a vitally important effect on the accumulation of oil and gas. The controlling role of the fault over fluid distribution was further analyzed by calculating the fault activity quantitatively.

A numerical study on the impact of tidal waves on the storm surge in the north of Liaodong Bay

A storm surge is an abnormal sharp rise or fall in the seawater level produced by the strong wind and low pressure field of an approaching storm system.A storm tide is a water level rise or fall caused by the combined effect of the storm surge and an astronomical tide.The storm surge depends on many factors,such as the tracks of typhoon movement,the intensity of typhoon,the topography of sea area,the amplitude of tidal wave,the period during which the storm surge couples with the tidal wave.When coupling with different parts of a tidal wave,the storm surges caused by a typhoon vary widely.The variation of the storm surges is studied.An once-in-a-century storm surge was caused by Typhoon 7203 at Huludao Port in the north of the Liaodong Bay from July 26th to 27th,1972.The maximum storm surge is about 1.90 m.The wind field and pressure field used in numerical simulations in the research were derived from the historical data of the Typhoon 7203 from July 23rd to 28th,1972.DHI Mike21 is used as the software tools.The whole Bohai Sea is defined as the computational domain.The numerical simulation models are forced with sea levels at water boundaries,that is the tide along the Bohai Straits from July 18th to 29th（2012）.The tide wave and the storm tides caused by the wind field and pressure field mentioned above are calculated in the numerical simulations.The coupling processes of storm surges and tidal waves are simulated in the following way.The first simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 18th,2012; the second simulation start date and time are 03：00 July 18th,2012.There is a three-hour lag between the start date and time of the simulation and that of the former one,the last simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 25th,2012.All the simulations have a same duration of 5 days,which is same as the time length of typhoon data.With the first day and the second day simulation output,which is affected by the initial field,being ignored,only the 3rd to 5th day simulation results are used to study the rules of the storm surges in the north of the Liaodong Bay.In total,57 cases are calculated and analyzed,including the coupling effects between the storm surge and a tidal wave during different tidal durations and on different tidal levels.Based on the results of the 57 numerical examples,the following conclusions are obtained：For the same location,the maximum storm surges are determined by the primary vibration（the storm tide keeps rising quickly） duration and tidal duration.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the flood tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is lower（1.01,1.05 and 1.37 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the ebb tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is higher（1.92,2.05 and 2.80 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.In the mean time,the sea level restrains the growth of storm surges.The hour of the highest storm tide has a margin of error of plus or minus 80 min,comparing the high water hour of the astronomical tide,in the north of the Liaodong Bay.

Source apportionment and ecological risk assessment of PAHs in surface sediments from the Liaodong Bay,northern China

The sources and ecological risk from sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface sediment in the Liaodong Bay were investigated from 2014 to 2015.The total concentrations of PAHs ranged from 88.5 to 347.1 ng/g,and the high value occurred in the central region of the Liaodong Bay.Cluster analysis identified two site clusters representing the coastal region affected by land-based pollution and the central region of the Liaodong Bay.Principal component analysis-multiple linear regression and diagnostic ratios suggested that PAHs contaminants originated from a mixture of combustion and petroleum sources,and the major was combustion sources.Based on sediment quality guideline,naphthalene,acenaphthylene,acenaphthene,phenanthrene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene may occasionally cause adverse biological effects in some stations.The toxic equivalent concentrations of carcinogenic PAHs indicated low carcinogenic risk for the Liaodong Bay.The ecological risk and toxic pollution levels of PAHs were higher in the central region than in the coastal region along the Liaodong Bay.

Sequence stratigraphy and depositional systems in the Paleogene,Liaodong Bay

Based on drilling and seismic data, the Paleogene developed in Liaodong Bay can be divided into five third-order sequences bounded by six sequence boundaries. Through analyzing depositional systems in each sequence in detail, the Es-3 time was defined as fast rifting. During the deposition of the Es-3 member, the lake basin was continuous along the N-S direction but compartmentalized along the E-W direction by several N-S trending faults. Deposition was dominated by steep slope fans and fan deltas. The time of Es-2 and Es-1 was stable settling. The lake basin expanded substantially. The fan delta system and braided fluvial system were developed. Carbonate and clastic deposits were formed on the Liaoxi （west Liaohe） Rise. The time of Ed-3 time was again fast rifting. During this time, shale was deposited. In the time of Es-2, tectonic movement weakened. The basin was higher in the west and north, and lower in the east and south. A series of delta depositional systems were developed and smallscale slumping turbidite fans were present in semi-deep lake to deep lake. In the time of Ed-1, tectonic movement stopped. Flood plain deposition occurred. Finally the paper presents the characteristics of evolution and distribution of depositional systems both vertically and horizontally.

Assessing benthic ecological status in stressed Liaodong Bay (China) with AMBI and M-AMBI

Rapid economic development in recent decades has resulted in environmental degradation of Liaodong Bay, North China, where eutrophication is becoming more evident because of excess nutrients inputs. To assess the benthic ecological status in Liaodong Bay, AZTI＇s Marine Biotic Index （AMBI） and multivariate-AMBI （MoAMBI） were applied using both benthic macroinvertebrate density and biomass data collected from Liaodong Bay in July 2007. This first application of AMBI and M-AMBI in Liaodong Bay showed that the nearshore areas of the bay, especially near river estuaries, were severely disturbed, with a clear gradient of disturbance decreasing seaward. Ecological status assessed from density and biomass data was quite similar. Significant relationships were also found between both indices and environmental variables in Liaodong Bay. Moreover, the spatial distributions of both AMBI and M-AMBI matched those of plotted eutrophication indices （EI） in the surface water layer, and significant linear correlations were found between both benthic indices and EI. In general, both AMBI and M-AMBI worked well on assessing the ecological status of Liaodong Bay under eutrophication stress due to excess nutrients inputs.

Magnetic Characteristics of Surface Sediments of Liaodong Bay, China

Analysis of magnetic properties of marine surface sediments has been gradually proved to be one of the effective means for researching the source of marine sediments. In this paper, samples from 39 sites in Liaodong Bay were collected to analyze the magnetic characteristics of the surface sediments. Magnetic study indicated that the surface sediments of the Liaodong Bay are char- acterized by magnetite. In the middle and eastern part and the southwest comer of the Bay, the main magnetic grains were coarse multi- domain and pseudo-single-domain particles, while in other areas single-domain and pseudo-single-domain particles constitute the majority. Based on grain size and environmental magnetism data, the content of magnetic minerals has a positive correlation with the hydrodynamic environment when the magnetic mineral domain is finer. However, the content of magnetic minerals is in a complex relationship with the hydrodynamic environment in the coarse magnetic domain of magnetic minerals found in central Liaodong Bay and places outside the Fuzhou Bay, implying that the strong hydrodynamic environment accelerates the sedimentation of coarse magnetic minerals. Based on geographic pattern of magnetic properties, it can be inferred that the main provenance of the surface sediments of the Liaodong Bay is the surrounding rivers, and the comparative analysis indicates that Yellow River substances maybe also exist in the bay.

Study on the Carry Capacity of Edible Jellyfish Fishery in Liaodong Bay

Jellyfish fishing is a special type of fishery that mainly exists in some countries of East and Southeast Asia. China has the largest jellyfish fishery yield in the world with an annual harvest of around 300 thousand tons. Liaodong Bay is the most important jellyfish fishery ground in China. However, due to the high benefits of jellyfish fishery, which leads to illegal and out-of-season jellyfish fishing occurring each year in Liaodong Bay. Illegal jellyfish fishery in Liaodong Bay is a typical example of the tragedy of the commons. The key problem is that fishermen seek to an illegally initiate jellyfish fishing as early as possible. In this paper, basing on the data of edible jellyfish's biology and ecology, we mainly analyzed the history of jellyfish fishery in China, especially in Liaodong bay, and then we calculated the carry capacity of edible jellyfish in Liaodong Bay which is about 300 thousand tons one year. This number is equal to the recent annual yield of edible jellyfish in China. Furthermore, basing on the carry capacity and reasonable quotas price analysis, we set up a Jellyfish fishing quotas and deficit quotas buyback system which could be a suitable and effective solution for jellyfish fishery management and development in Liaodong Bay at the underlying roots. Although China is the first country with edible jellyfish aquaculture, the annual yield of jellyfish aquaculture is only one fifth of jellyfish fishing. So, there is a very bright developing prospect about edible jellyfish aquaculture in China.

Species Composition and Protection of Fish Eggs and Larvae in Spawning Ground of Liaodong Bay

[Objective] The paper was to explore the species composition, number distribution and seasonal dynamics of fish eggs and larvae in Liaodong Bay in 2008. The protection and exploitation status of spawning ground in Liaodong Bay was analyzed, and the corresponding protection measures were put forward. [Methods] The species composition of fish eggs and larvae in spawning ground of Liaodong Bay was investigated by horizontal trawling associated with vertical trawling with zooplankton net in May, July, September and October in 2008. [Result] It was found that 7 724 eggs and 229 larvae of fishes belonging to 32 taxa were collected, in which 29 taxa were identified as species, belonging to 9 genera, 21 families and 28 orders, 2 taxa were identified to only family level, and one failed to be identified. The main spawning groups were Cynoglossus joyneri, Engraulis japonicus, Johnius belengerii, Larimichthys polyactis, Konosirus punctatus, Sardinella zunasi, and Scomberomorus niphonius, and the main spawning ground was found in northern waters and Changxing Island waters in Liaodao Bay. There was slightly less spawning species in 2008 compared with 1998, especially the number of fish eggs and larvae decreased greatly. [Conclusion] The effective measures for protection of spawning grounds in Liaodong Bay are suggested, including control of fishing intensity, development of artificial reefs, establishment of germplasm resources reserves, and standardization of compensation standards for marine ecological damage.

Segment, Linkage, and Extensional Fault-Related Fold in Western Liaodong Bay Subbasin, Northeastern Bohai Sea, China

The western Liaodong （辽东） Bay subbasin displays examples of segment, linkage of extensional fault, and fault-related folds. The Liaoxi （辽西） extensional fault system consists of a series of NNE- and NE-trending segments that were linked through relay ramps. The fault hanging walls are characterized by a series of en echelon synclines with axial traces sub-parallel to the faults. The synclines are doubly plunging located on the hanging wall of normal faults, with the strata dip sub-parallel to the fault. These folds result from along-strike displacement variations of the individual fault segments, as well as from extensional fault-related folding. In the study area, the synclines are separated by transverse intra-basin highs and relay ramps that formed where segment linkage occurred. These hanging wall synclines and their relation to fault displacement variations indicate that they are formed by extensional fault-related fold.

The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios

Based on a coupled ocean-sea ice model,this study investigates how changes in the mean state of the atmosphere in different CO2 emission scenarios (RCP 8.5,6.0,4.5 and 2.6) may affect the sea ice in the Bohai Sea,China,especially in the Liaodong Bay,the largest bay in the Bohai Sea. In the RCP 8.5 scenario,an abrupt change of the atmospheric state happens around 2070. Due to the abrupt change,wintertime sea ice of the Liaodong Bay can be divided into 3 periods: a mild decreasing period (2021–2060),in which the sea ice severity weakens at a near-constant rate;a rapid decreasing period (2061–2080),in which the sea ice severity drops dramatically;and a stabilized period (2081–2100). During 2021–2060,the dates of first ice are approximately unchanged,suggesting that the onset of sea ice is probably determined by a cold-air event and is not sensitive to the mean state of the atmosphere. The mean and maximum sea ice thickness in the Liaodong Bay is relatively stable before 2060,and then drops rapidly in the following decade. Different from the RCP 8.5 scenario,atmospheric state changes smoothly in the RCP 6.0,4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. In the RCP 6.0 scenario,the sea ice severity in the Bohai Sea weakens with time to the end of the twenty-first century. In the RCP 4.5 scenario,the sea ice severity weakens with time until reaching a stable state around the 2070s. In the RCP 2.6 scenario,the sea ice severity weakens until the 2040s,stabilizes from then,and starts intensifying after the 2080s. The sea ice condition in the other bays of the Bohai Sea is also discussed under the four CO_(2) emissions scenarios. Among atmospheric factors,air temperature is the leading one for the decline of the sea ice extent. Specific humidity also plays an important role in the four scenarios. The surface downward shortwave/longwave radiation and meridional wind only matter in certain scenarios,while effects from the zonal wind and precipitation are negligible.