Concentration Prediction of Total Flavonoids in Aurantii Fructus Extraction Process:Locally Weighted Regression versus Kinetic Model Equation Based on Fick's Law

Objective To predict the total flavonoids concentration of Aurantii Fructus fried with bran in its extraction process. Methods Ultraviolet spectrophotometry was used to determine the concentration of total flavonoids in different extraction time （t） and solvent load （M）. Then the predicted procedure was carried out using the following data： 1 ） based on Ficks second law, the parameters of the kinetic model could be deduced and the equation was established; 2） Locally weighted regression （LWR） code was developed in the WEKA software environment to predict the concentration. And then we used both methods to predict the concentration of total flavonoids in new experiments. Results After comparing the predicted results with the experimental data, the LWR model had better accuracy and performance in the prediction. Conclusion LWR is applied to analyze the extraction process of Chinese herb for the first time, and it is totally fit for the extraction. LWR-based system is a more simple and accurate way to predict than the established equation. It is a good choice especially for a process which exists no clear rules, and can be used in the real-time control during the process.

Adaptive Locally Weighted Projection Regression Method for Uncertainty Quantification

We develop an efficient,adaptive locally weighted projection regression(ALWPR)framework for uncertainty quantification(UQ)of systems governed by ordinary and partial differential equations.The algorithm adaptively selects the new input points with the largest predictive variance and decides when and where to add new localmodels.It effectively learns the local features and accurately quantifies the uncertainty in the prediction of the statistics.The developed methodology provides predictions and confidence intervals at any query input and can dealwithmulti-output cases.Numerical examples are presented to show the accuracy and efficiency of the ALWPR framework including problems with non-smooth local features such as discontinuities in the stochastic space.

STATISTICAL INFERENCES FOR VARYING-COEFFICINT MODELS BASED ON LOCALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION TECHNIQUE

Some fundamental issues on statistical inferences relating to varying-coefficient regression models are addressed and studied. An exact testing procedure is proposed for checking the goodness of fit of a varying-coefficient model fited by the locally weighted regression technique versus an ordinary linear regression model. Also, an appropriate statistic for testing variation of model parameters over the locations where the observations are collected is constructed and a formal testing approach which is essential to exploring spatial non-stationarity in geography science is suggested.

Prediction of flyrock induced by mine blasting using a novel kernel-based extreme learning machine

Blasting is a common method of breaking rock in surface mines.Although the fragmentation with proper size is the main purpose,other undesirable effects such as flyrock are inevitable.This study is carried out to evaluate the capability of a novel kernel-based extreme learning machine algorithm,called kernel extreme learning machine(KELM),by which the flyrock distance(FRD) is predicted.Furthermore,the other three data-driven models including local weighted linear regression(LWLR),response surface methodology(RSM) and boosted regression tree(BRT) are also developed to validate the main model.A database gathered from three quarry sites in Malaysia is employed to construct the proposed models using 73 sets of spacing,burden,stemming length and powder factor data as inputs and FRD as target.Afterwards,the validity of the models is evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of some statistical metrics and validation tools.Finally,the results verify that the proposed KELM model on account of highest correlation coefficient(R) and lowest root mean square error(RMSE) is more computationally efficient,leading to better predictive capability compared to LWLR,RSM and BRT models for all data sets.

Discharge estimation based on machine learning

To overcome the limitations of the traditional stage-discharge models in describing the dynamic characteristics of a river, a machine learning method of non-parametric regression, the locally weighted regression method was used to estimate discharge. With the purpose of improving the precision and efficiency of river discharge estimation, a novel machine learning method is proposed： the clustering-tree weighted regression method. First, the training instances are clustered. Second, the k-nearest neighbor method is used to cluster new stage samples into the best-fit cluster. Finally, the daily discharge is estimated. In the estimation process, the interference of irrelevant information can be avoided, so that the precision and efficiency of daily discharge estimation are improved. Observed data from the Luding Hydrological Station were used for testing. The simulation results demonstrate that the precision of this method is high. This provides a new effective method for discharge estimation.

A credit scoring model based on the Myers–Briggs type indicator in online peer-to-peer lending

Although psychometric features have been considered for alternative credit scoring,they have not yet been applied to peer-to-peer(P2P)lending because such information is not available on platforms.This study proposed an alternative credit scoring model for P2P lending by extracting typical personality types inferred from the borrowers’job category.We projected a virtual space of borrowers by using the affinity matrix based on the Myers–Briggs type indicator(MBTI)that fits each job category.Applying the distance in this space to Lending Club data,we used locally weighted logistic regression to vary the coefficients of the variables,which affect loan repayments,with each MBTI type for predicting the default probability.We found that each MBTI type’s credit scoring model has different significant variables.This study provides insights into breakthroughs in developing alternative credit scoring for P2P lending.

Variable Bandwidth Smoothing Based on Cluster Analysis

Piecewise variable bandwidth local polynomial smoothing was studied. A local polynomial smoothing method was given based on kernel functions and the optimal variable bandwidth choice was discussed using cluster analysis. Computer simulations show that the current method is better than Donoho's wavelet shrinkage method.