Efficient Deviation Detection Between a Process Model and Event Logs

Business processes described by formal or semi-formal models are realized via information systems.Event logs generated from these systems are probably not consistent with the existing models due to insufficient design of the information system or the system upgrade.By comparing an existing process model with event logs,we can detect inconsistencies called deviations,verify and extend the business process model,and accordingly improve the business process.In this paper,some abnormal activities in business processes are formally defined based on Petri nets.An efficient approach to detect deviations between the process model and event logs is proposed.Then,business process models are revised when abnormal activities exist.A clinical process in a healthcare information system is used as a case study to illustrate our work.Experimental results show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Log-normal censored regression model detecting prognostic factors in gastric cancer:A study of 3018 cases

AIM:To investigate the efficiency of Cox proportional hazard model in detecting prognostic factors for gastric cancer.METHODS:We used the log-normal regression model to evaluate prognostic factors in gastric cancer and compared it with the Cox model.Three thousand and eighteen gastric cancer patients who received a gastrectomy between 1980 and 2004 were retrospectively evaluated.Clinic-pathological factors were included in a log-normal model as well as Cox model.The akaike information criterion (AIC) was employed to compare the efficiency of both models.Univariate analysis indicated that age at diagnosis,past history,cancer location,distant metastasis status,surgical curative degree,combined other organ resection,Borrmann type,Lauren's classification,pT stage,total dissected nodes and pN stage were prognostic factors in both log-normal and Cox models.RESULTS:In the final multivariate model,age at diagnosis,past history,surgical curative degree,Borrmann type,Lauren's classification,pT stage,and pN stage were significant prognostic factors in both log-normal and Cox models.However,cancer location,distant metastasis status,and histology types were found to be significant prognostic factors in log-normal results alone.According to AIC,the log-normal model performed better than the Cox proportional hazard model (AIC value:2534.72 vs 1693.56).CONCLUSION:It is suggested that the log-normal regression model can be a useful statistical model to evaluate prognostic factors instead of the Cox proportional hazard model.

AN EFFICIENT NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE DC RESISTIVITY LOGGING: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS

The numerical solution of Green’s function for the potential in 2-D arbitrary in-homogeneous media with axial symmetry has been given by use of efficient half-analytical, half-numerical hybrid method. Then the logging responses of various kinds of the DC resistivity log with axisymmetric excitation have been obtained by using surface integral equation method to match the boundary conditions on the electrodes of the logging sonde. Comparing the results with that obtained by other methods, one can see good precision and efficiency of the given method. Some applications of the numerical modeling have been also discussed.

Mathematical model and numerical method for spontaneous potential log in heterogeneous formations

This paper introduces a new spontaneous potential log model for the case in which formation resistivity is not piecewise constant. The spontaneous potential satisfies an elliptic boundary value problem with jump conditions on the interfaces. It has beer/ shown that the elliptic interface problem has a unique weak solution. Furthermore, a jump condition capturing finite difference scheme is proposed and applied to solve such elliptic problems. Numerical results show validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Simulation logging experiment and interpretation model of array production logging measurements in a horizontal well

The distributions of local velocity and local phase holdup along the radial direction of pipes are complicated because of gravity differentiation,and the distribution of fluid velocity fi eld changes along the gravity direction in horizontal wells.Therefore,measuring the mixture flow and water holdup is difficult,resulting in poor interpretation accuracy of the production logging output profile.In this paper,oil–water two-phase flow dynamic simulation logging experiments in horizontal oil–water two-phase fl ow simulation wells were conducted using the Multiple Array Production Suite,which comprises a capacitance array tool(CAT)and a spinner array tool(SAT),and then the response characteristics of SAT and CAT in diff erent fl ow rates and water cut production conditions were studied.According to the response characteristics of CAT in diff erent water holdup ranges,interpolation imaging along the wellbore section determines the water holdup distribution,and then,the oil–water two-phase velocity fi eld in the fl ow section was reconstructed on the basis of the fl ow section water holdup distribution and the logging value of SAT and combined with the rheological equation of viscous fl uid,and the calculation method of the oil–water partial phase fl ow rate in the fl ow section was proposed.This new approach was applied in the experiment data calculations,and the results are basically consistent with the experimental data.The total fl ow rate and water holdup from the calculation are in agreement with the set values in the experiment,suggesting that the method has high accuracy.

Model study of log feeding technology at the dam of Ertan Hydropower Station in China

The log float technology from timber depot at the reservoir to log feeding rolls was studied by model tests. The model test was taken with the rule of gravitation similitude and ratio of 1∶10. Main parameters, like the amount of tug boats, hydro-accelerators and the structure of feeding rolls, were determined. The more suitable float process is put forward and the reliable basis for the design is supplied.

Enhanced history matching process by incorporation of saturation logs as model selection criteria

This paper proposes a methodology for an alternative history matching process enhanced by the incorporation of a simplified binary interpretation of reservoir saturation logs(RST) as objective function. Incorporating fluids saturation logs during the history matching phase unlocks the possibility to adjust or select models that better represent the near wellbore waterfront movement, which is particularly important for uncertainty mitigation during future well interference assessments in water driven reservoirs. For the purposes of this study, a semi-synthetic open-source reservoir model was used as base case to evaluate the proposed methodology. The reservoir model represents a water driven, highly heterogenous sandstone reservoir from Namorado field in Brazil. To effectively compare the proposed methodology against the conventional methods, a commercial reservoir simulator was used in combination with a state-of-the-art benchmarking workflow based on the Big LoopTMapproach. A well-known group of binary metrics were evaluated to be used as the objective function, and the Matthew correlation coefficient(MCC) has been proved to offer the best results when using binary data from water saturation logs. History matching results obtained with the proposed methodology allowed the selection of a more reliable group of reservoir models,especially for cases with high heterogeneity. The methodology also offers additional information and understanding of sweep behaviour behind the well casing at specific production zones, thus revealing full model potential to define new wells and reservoir development opportunities.

Effective Electromagnetic Log Data Interpretation in Realistic Reservoir Models

This paper analyzes some specific features of the numerical interpretation of high-frequency electromagnetic logging data in vertical, deviated and horizontal boreholes entering oil- and water-saturated formations. The interpretation is based on numerical modeling for signals.

含零收益率的金融非对称Log-GARCH模型研究

在实际外汇市场中,由于诸如交易缺失、舍入误差等原因使得收益率序列中出现零值,常见GARCH族模型无法对含零收益率数据进行有效拟合,导致波动率估计结果产生较大偏差。为了更准确地估计汇率波动率,本文对含有零收益率的外汇数据进行建模。首先运用不受条件方差为正限制的log-GARCH模型对汇率市场收益率数据进行拟合,同时提出一个处理含有零收益率的数据处理框架,即将零值视为缺失的观测值。然后通过结合QMLE方法和期望最大化(EM)算法对含缺失观测值的log-GARCH模型进行无偏估计。最后通过实证分析比较零收益率两种不同处理方法——非零值代替零值方法和将零值视为缺失值方法下波动率估计结果的差异。研究结果显示零收益率的存在会增加波动率的估计偏差,将非零值作为缺失值方法得到的估计结果更接近市场真实情况。

Geological Model of Pre-Jurassic Heterogeneous Basement and Hydrocarbon Productivity Prediction of “Oil-and-Gas Bearing Contact Zone Horizon” Between Paleozoic and Mesozoic Deposits of Ostaninskoye and Severoostaninskoye Oil-and-Gas Fields(Western Siberi

This work is devoted to the analysis of the formation conditions and geologic model of Paleozoic basement rocks of a number of oil-and-gas fields, located in Tomsk region(South of West-Siberian Oil-and-Gas Province,Russia).The research is based on integrated data interpretation of seismic exploration, well logging and deep drilling.The study is at the interfaces between exploration geophysics

Evaluation of volcanic reservoirs with the "QAPM mineral model" using a genetic algorithm

Gas-bearing volcanic reservoirs have been found in the deep Songliao Basin, China. Choosing proper interpretation parameters for log evaluation is difficult due to complicated mineral compositions and variable mineral contents. Based on the QAPF classification scheme given by IUGS, we propose a method to determine the mineral contents of volcanic rocks using log data and a genetic algorithm. According to the QAPF scheme, minerals in volcanic rocks are divided into five groups： Q（quartz）, A （Alkaline feldspar）, P （plagioclase）, M （mafic） and F （feldspathoid）. We propose a model called QAPM including porosity for the volumetric analysis of reservoirs. The log response equations for density, apparent neutron porosity, transit time, gamma ray and volume photoelectrical cross section index were first established with the mineral parameters obtained from the Schlumberger handbook of log mineral parameters. Then the volumes of the four minerals in the matrix were calculated using the genetic algorithm （GA）. The calculated porosity, based on the interpretation parameters, can be compared with core porosity, and the rock names given in the paper based on QAPF classification according to the four mineral contents are compatible with those from the chemical analysis of the core samples.

居民出行生成预测的二元logit模型改进及验证

针对二元logit模型在出行生成预测应用时忽略了变量差异性的缺点,提出了其可观测变量参数β'服从对数正态分布的假设,根据美国PUMS居民出行调查的前300个相关数据,通过参数标定对该假设的合理性进行了验证.采用SAS仿真系统对参数进行标定的结果表明:当部分参数服从对数正态分布时,所有参数的t检验值均在[-1,1]区间之外,从而验证了假设的合理性.分别利用改进前的模型与改进后的模型进行城市居民出行生成预测,结果显示后者的预测精度明显高于前者,进一步验证了应用改进后的二元logit模型进行居民出行生成预测有显著效果.

非独立数据时稳健Poisson和Log-binomial随机效应模型研究

目的比较基于稳健Poisson回归及Log-binomial的随机效应模型对具有层次结构的非罕见结局事件资料的参数估计结果。方法通过计算机模拟生成具有类内相关的数据集,设置了32种参数情况,分别反映实际资料中的少数类别数和中等类别数,小强度的类内聚集和中等强度的类内聚集,基线患病率分别为0.15和0.3,关联强度PR值分别是1.5和2.0,暴露率分别为20%和50%的情况;比较各模型在模拟条件下的收敛率、参数估计结果以及参数的95%CI覆盖率。结果 Log-binomial随机效应模型的收敛效果劣于稳健Poisson随机效应模型;两随机效应模型对各参数的估计结果均和真值较为接近;在类内聚集性较小时,两随机效应模型95%CI覆盖率均较好,但随类内聚集性增大,Log-binomial的随机效应模型95%CI覆盖率变动较大,且类别数增加时覆盖率普遍较低。结论基于稳健Poisson的随机效应模型收敛率高,参数估计结果与真实值接近,对各固定效应参数估计的95%CI的覆盖率高且稳定,优于Log-binomial随机效应模型。

列联表资料的对数线性模型与Logistic回归模型分析对比

目的: 对处理列联表资料的对数线性模型的Logistic回归模型进行了分析对比。方法: 对两模型的特色、理论联系、及某些不同之处进行了讨论。结果: 采用两种模型对同一组资料分析结果一致。结论: 对数线性模型与Logistic回归模型理论联系密切。虽然对同组资料分析结果一致, 但在有些情况下, 如针对不同资料,

基于DD-DWT和Log-Logistic参数回归的癫痫脑电自动识别方法

针对现有癫痫脑电(EEG)识别算法分类模式单一、普适性不强的问题,提出了一种新的基于双密度离散小波变换(DDDWT)和Log-Logistic参数回归(LLPR)的脑电信号自动识别方法。不仅利用了DD-DWT算法的分解特性,还建立了脑电信号的LLPR模型,并将二者有机的结合,从而更好的发挥算法的优势。滤波后脑电信号由DD-DWT进行6层分解,提取各子频带系数的小波域能量波形,并结合LLPR模型计算尺度参数α和形状参数β以表征信号,将构成的特征向量送入遗传算法(GA)优化的支持向量机(SVM)得出识别结果,从而实现脑电信号的自动识别。所提方法在处理A\D\E与AB\CD\E两种多模式脑电分类问题时,识别率分别为98.90%和97.75%。实验结果表明,所提算法更符合实际应用需求,可以较好地解决多类脑电信号识别问题,具有良好的普适能力和分类性能。

LoG边缘算子改进的加权引导滤波算法

针对原始全局的引导滤波算法对整幅图像各个区域使用统一的线性模型与相同的规整化因子,从而未能适应图像本身不同区域的纹理特性,提出了基于LoG边缘检测算子改进的加权自适应规整因子。通过在局部窗口内计算LoG幅值响应,对原有的规整化因子进行惩罚来取得对图像平滑区域与边缘区域的自适应,使得在保证降噪效果的前提下进一步突出边缘像素和平坦区域像素之间的差异。对开源医学图像库Brain Web中不同断层的T1、T2与PD加权图像,共18张图像,添加9%的莱斯噪声作为测试库,并采用结构相似性因子(SSIM)与无参考图像锐化因子(CPBD)作为算法的定量评估指标。实验结果表明,与原始的引导滤波算法相比,所提方法的SSIM指标获得了最高5%左右的提升,CPBD指标获得了最高6%左右的提升。在引导滤波不同规整化因子的条件下,所提算法均优于原始的引导滤波算法和现有的基于方差图像加权改进的引导滤波算法,并保留了原始引导滤波O(N)的复杂度。与现存的主流滤波算法比较,所提算法能够兼顾SSIM与CPBD指标,具有最高的综合性能,且具有最低的算法复杂度,能够用于医学图像和彩色图像的快速滤波降噪。

基于变系数ΔlogR技术的烃源岩TOC精细评价

海拉尔盆地乌尔逊凹陷主力烃源岩层(南一段)烃源岩非均质性强,总有机碳(TOC)波动明显,利用有限的测试样品表征整套烃源岩层的生烃潜力具有较强的不确定性;烃源岩层的测井响应表现为高自然伽马、高声波时差、中等电阻率,易于识别,但是烃源岩测井评价参数的通用性差,难以建立起具有普遍适用性的TOC预测公式。针对上述问题,采用变系数ΔlogR技术评价该区烃源岩TOC,将ΔlogR技术中的经验参数视为待定系数,从模型参数地质意义出发,通过针对单井和"分区、分相"预测模型中的待定参数,完成全区120口井TOC测井评价,利用测井计算TOC实现烃源岩分级评价,通过"钻井定频率、层序定展布"的方法,得到南一段不同丰度级别烃源岩的厚度。结果表明,变系数ΔlogR技术预测TOC误差平均为16.6%,比传统方法平均降低19.9%;南一段差烃源岩厚度一般15~20 m,中等烃源岩厚度一般10~20 m,优质烃源岩的厚度一般20~45 m;南一段差烃源岩、中等烃源岩、优质烃源岩的体积分别为0.46×10^(11)、1.08×10^(11)和1.59×10^(11)m^3。

log线性模型在病案储存管理中的应用

目的探讨病案储存年限各期的特点,为病案的合理管理提供理论依据。方法根据病案的储存年限和病案利用率,建立log线性模型。结果病案储存年限各期的病案利用率是不同的。结论对不同期的病案采取不同的储存方式和管理办法。

用梯度LOG算子实现小目标实时跟踪

为提高复杂背景条件下小目标检测及跟踪的稳定性,提出了一种基于梯度LOG算子的光团目标检测跟踪算法。首先建立了梯度图像中小目标的成像模型,能够较好地适应背景光照变化。然后根据尺度空间的基本理论构造了一种针对该成像模型的目标检测算子,分析并证明了该算子具有尺度不变性的优点,设计并实现了基于梯度LOG算子的小目标跟踪方案,实验结果表明:梯度LOG算子能够较好地跟踪复杂背景中的光团目标,定位精度可达亚像素级,且具有计算量小,抗噪声能力强等优点。

基于LoG和因子分解的集成ACM的亚实性肺结节分割

针对亚实性肺结节(SSN)边缘模糊、结构复杂、区域亮度不均等问题,传统的活动轮廓模型(ACM)方法难以达到高精度的分割结果。因此,提出一种优化的LoG算子和因子分解结合的集成ACM分割算法。用高斯拉普拉斯算子(LoG)处理肺实质图像,对算子进行优化并构建能量项,以加强边界并增强区域亮度;以像素值作为描述特征构建因子分解能量项,使曲线演变到目标边缘;将LoG能量项和因子分解能量项集成到LGIF模型中对SSN分割。实验结果证实,该算法模型对SSN的分割更有效。