地铁站人员疏散路径选择行为分析及Logit建模

掌握地铁站的密集人群在应急疏散过程中的路径选择行为规律,对于紧急情况下保障地铁站人群安全具有重要意义。但现有针对疏散路径选择行为的研究多局限于主观分析与优化算法设计,尚缺乏结合实测数据的客观机理和建模研究。为此,基于地铁站疏散演习数据,重点针对疏散路径中的3个路径选择决策点,提取了这3个位置每个可选路径方向上的人流量、疏散引导信息、人员行为以及每条路径的属性数据,分析了有引导和无引导情况下的人员疏散路径选择行为规律。发现疏散人员在选择路径时具有跟随性,且更倾向于选择人流量大的路径。在本次演习中,3个有疏散引导的方向上,疏散人员对引导的服从率分别为47.25%,51.35%和84.97%,表明了疏散引导人员的关键作用;基于疏散演习数据,构建了包含6个影响因素的人员疏散路径选择行为的Logit模型,并对每个路径选择决策点分别进行了模型参数逻辑回归求解,结果表明,模型都能够通过卡方检验,整体预测正确率分别为76.1%,86.2%和91.2%。模型可直接计算得到在该疏散演习条件下,3个路径选择决策点处每个疏散人员根据实时情况作出判断后选择每条路径的概率。对于微观人群疏散模拟来说,该方法对预测真实情况下人员路径选择和疏散时间具有明显的价值。

Farmers' Willingness on Organic Fertilizer Application Based on Logit Model and Influencing Factors——A case of Shandong Province

[Objective] The matter of chemical fertilizer being overused but organic fertilizer being deficiently used causes environment pollution and soil fertility degradation and holds back agricultural sustainable development in China at present.[Method] A survey of 200 farmers selected from Shandong province was conducted in 2008 to identify the factors influencing farmers willingness to use organic fertilizer.[Result] Logit model results showed that the proportion of non-farm income in total income,awareness of...

Study on urban housing consumption selection based on Logit model

Housing problem is the problem of livelihood. The problem of housing consumer behavior has become one of the main concern of the Government after more than 10 years the rapid development of real estate. This article is based on the logit model, integrated family net worth, family income, labor factors and so on. Results showed that housing in Shanghai have household net worth is the most critical, followed by labour income and labour force.

影响研究生录取概率的因素分析——基于C大学微观数据的计量分析

文章主要对C大学2004—2012年间研究生招录数据进行描述统计和计量模型检验以探讨"名校效应"、性别、应届生等因素是否会影响最终录取情况,重点探索相关招生政策改革与其实施效果是否一致,结果发现:C大学招生工作还是以分数和报考专业为第一原则;专硕录取概率显著大于学硕录取概率;研究生扩招政策并没有想象中那么显著,说明我国目前招生政策改革的效果尚未完全体现,仍需要进一步的微观政策加以配合。

农户种植方式选择行为对收益的影响--以北京720个瓜农为例

笔者以北京大兴、顺义、延庆3个区720个西瓜种植农户为研究对象,分析农户种植方式选择行为的影响因素以及种植选择对收益的影响。研究表明,年龄、文化程度、家庭务农人口、所属区域、政府补贴政策等因素会对农户种植方式选择行为产生显著影响。其次,性别、平均年龄、文化程度、价格、成本、种植模式、灌溉方式、政府补贴政策会影响收益。本研究为西瓜种植农户做出正确决策提供了依据,为使农户达到增加收益的目的提供了方向。

Influence of land use characteristics and trip attributes on commuting mode choice: a case of Nanjing

The effects of socio-demographics, land use characteristics and trip attributes on the commute mode choice are studied with a nested logit （NL） model. Based on the random utility maximum theory, the NL model is formulated. The analysis is carried out in the main area of Nanjing. Direct and cross elasticities are calculated to analyze the effects of travel time and travel cost on the selection of travel mode choice. The results reveal that the non-motorized travel modes are more attractive in the areas with higher housing and employment accessibility and car owners are found to be more likely to commute to work by car. The bus and subway choice probabilities are more sensitive to changes in travel times than to changes in travel costs. In conclusion, a comprehensive public transit system and effective integration of land use and transportation policies help to relieve the traffic congestion levels caused by the increasing urban sprawl.

Modeling commuters' route choice behavior under pre-trip information system

Research about the auto commuter＇s pre-trip route choice behavior ignores the combined influence of the real-time information and all respondents＇ historical information in the existing documents.To overcome this shortcoming,an approach to describing the pre-trip route choice behavior with the incorporation of the real-time and historical information is proposed.Two types of real-time information are investigated,which are quantitative information and prescriptive information.By using the bounded rationality theory,the influence of historical information on the real-time information reference process is examined first.Estimation results show that the historical information has a significant influence on the quantitative information reference process,but not on the prescriptive information reference process.Then the route choice behavior is modeled.A comparison is also made among three route choice models,one of which does not incorporate the real-time information reference process,while the others do.Estimation results show that the route choice behavior is better described with the consideration of the reference process of both quantitative and prescriptive information.

An empirical study on travel demand management modeling based on discrete choice method

In view of the problem that the requirements of travel demand management and traffic policy-sensitivity are ignored during the establishment process of the travel demand forecasting model, a discrete-choice-based travel demand forecasting model is proposed to demonstrate its applicability to travel demand management. A car-bus discrete choice model is established, including three variables, i. e,, individual socioeconomic characteristics, time, and cost, and the traffic policy-sensitivity is evaluated through two kinds of traffic policies： parking charges and bus priorities. The empirical results show that travel choice is insensitive to the policy of parking charges as 88. 41% of the travelers are insensitive to parking charges; travel choice is, however, sensitive to the policy of bus priorities as 67.70% of the car travelers and 77.02% of the bus travelers are sensitive to bus priorities. The discrete-choice-based travel demand forecasting model is quite policy-sensitive and also has a good adaptability for travel demand management when meeting the basic functions of the demand forecasting model.

Route optimization model for pedestrian evacuation in metro hubs

The route optimization problem for road networks was applied to pedestrian flow.Evacuation path networks with nodes and arcs considering the traffic capacities of facilities were built in metro hubs,and a path impedance function for metro hubs which used the relationships among circulation speed,density and flow rate for pedestrians was defined.Then,a route optimization model which minimizes the movement time of the last evacuee was constructed to optimize evacuation performance.Solutions to the proposed mathematical model were obtained through an iterative optimization process.The route optimization model was applied to Xidan Station of Beijing Metro Line 4 based on the actual situations,and the calculation results of the model were tested using buildingExodus microscopic evacuation simulation software.The simulation result shows that the proposed model shortens the evacuation time by 16.05%,3.15% and 2.78% compared with all or none method,equally split method and Logit model,respectively.Furthermore,when the population gets larger,evacuation efficiency in the proposed model has a greater advantage.

Using Logistic Regression to Identify the Entrepreneurial Capability of Thai Agricultural Cooperatives Members on Their Farm Management

This study elaborates three things： Firstly is the current agricultural cooperatives management and their low farm performance in eight provinces in the eastern of Thailand where are the bases of Thailand famous fruits products. Secondly is to point out the key concepts of the theory of entrepreneur and the strength of it to assist the community development, to teach young people, adults and cooperatives members to prepare them to pertain good entrepreneurship that meets cooperatives concepts and principles. Thirdly is to give an example of research study that describes how to identify entrepreneurial capability of agricultural cooperatives members in Thailand, dependent variable is qualitative or binary, we use ＂odds value＂ or probability of success over the probability of failure to identify the set of odds value, and use exponential function to transform the odds value to be the log of odds or Logit model. If probability of entrepreneur is over the cutting point of 0.8, it implied that members are pertained high entrepreneurial capability and vise versa. The first step of research is the analysis of five year panel secondary data during 2011-2015, collected from Cooperatives Auditing Department. Eight groups of 679 numbers of data from 215 cooperatives were calculated, data were divided by the number of member. These eight independent variables are Total income per member, Total equity per member, Net profit per member, Co-ops operating capital per member, Total cooperatives capital per member, Total deposit per member, Total asset per member, Number of member. Qualitative data are the four sizes of cooperatives： large, big, medium, and small. Qualitative data are the only one intervening variable in the model. Secondary data found that only four quantitative independent variables effect to entrepreneurial capability. Total asset per member, and Total income per member had negative effect, but Net profit per member, and Cooperatives capital per member had positive effect. It means that if cooperatives acquire more and more asset, cooperatives will have more burden of debt or equity and probability of entrepreneur will be decreased. If cooperatives gain more and more income to the firm, it means the complex organization or the cooperatives will success but the individual member who is individual finn will get loss. Cooperatives capital per member and Net profit per member have positive effect. Because cooperatives capital were gained from residual and after the allocation of cooperatives surplus to be patronage refund according to the volume of business which member had done with the cooperatives and dividend pay out to member according to the number of stocks they held for their saving with the cooperatives. For qualitative variable, large and medium size of cooperatives had no any effects, but small size of cooperatives had more effect than the big size. It implied that big cooperatives who had more and more number of members have more and more burden. Small size of cooperatives is similar to individual firm of each member. Thus, optimum size of cooperatives is suitable for their service and efficient management, if the size of business volume increasing continuously, the quality of service will decrease, because almost cooperatives organization is pricing at break even point. Second step is a primary survey of data from Rayong province. Seventy-five samples of cooperatives members have not recorded their business information, both revenue and cost. We cannot use logistic regression to run the second model, but only Multiple Regression Analysis （MRA）. MRA results identify that the cooperatives profit of each member depends on three variables： （1） sales, （2） member responsibility （not board member responsibility or Management responsibility）, （3） member＇s level of education. Suggestion and recommendation is that agricultural cooperatives members in Thailand still have to improve their entrepreneurial capability by recording all information related to business functions and prepare financial record to represent efficient use of resources to meet member and community＇s needs.

Empirical research on impacted factor of farmer＇s willingness for purchasing information Based on the survey data of Hebei province

Farmer＇s willingness for purchasing information, an important factor of farmer＇s information demand, was analyzed by logit model, according to the survey data of 535 farmers from eleven cities in Hebei province. The result showed that 6 factors had a significant influence on it, that is, education of farmers, per capita income of farmers, the affordability of information risk, the proportion of agricultural labor households, the type of agricultural production and the rural information service stations. On the basis of these, the related policy recommendations were proposed.

Residents' Attitude to Pay for Urban River Restoration:Empirical Evidence from Cities in Yangtze Delta

Public willingness to pay （WTP） for urban rivers res- toration was investigated in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou in China with a sample of 1,285. The factors influencing positive WTP against zero WTP are analyzed using a binary logit model. The results indicate that income, Huff （residential registration） status, household size, home property ownership, riverfront access, and attitudes toward current water quality arc statistically signifi- cant in the likelihood of positive WTR It is also found that respon- dents without local Huff are less willingness to pay positively in pooled sample and Shanghai sample. In the group holding property right of house but without local Huff is less willingness to pay positively in Hangzhou. Respondents in Nanjing are more will- ingness to pay positively than those in Hangzhou. Most common arguments against to pay for the restoration are ＂government＇s duty＂, ＂low income＂, ＂non-local-Huji＂ and ＂lack of trust in the government in how it spends money＂. The results are generally consistent with the hypothesis and specific situations in China. The findings make some contributions to the non-market valua- tion studies as well as provide useful information for public policy making in China.

Economic Evaluation of Grain Amaranth Production in Kamuli District, Uganda

In Uganda, grain amaranth is relatively new and has generally not been considered as an important crop compared to other grain crops and legumes. This study was therefore conducted to determine factors affecting adoption of grain amaranth growing, factors affecting production, and economic returns on investment of its production. The study was carried out in Kamuli district where a total of 174 grain amaranth farmers and 90 non-grain amaranth farmers were randomly selected and interviewed. Using descriptive statistics, regression analysis （logit model and a Cobb-Douglas type production function） and profitability ratios, it was found that grain amaranth is produced on a small scale and yields are low. Farmer adoption of the crop was favoured by age, gender （female）, education of the farmer, and source of income. The output was positively affected by the amount of labour and manure used in production, while a negative relationship existed between output and male farmers. The crop was most viable under small acreages （0.02-0.04 ha） with positive returns to investment of 0.016. Its production should therefore be encouraged because of its income generation potential and since it requires small land.

Participatory Plant Breeding and Selection Impact on Adoption of Improved Sweetpotato Varieties in Uganda

This study analyzed the impact of participatory plant breeding （PPB） and participatory variety selection （PVS） on the adoption of improved sweetpotato varieties （ISPV） in central Uganda. The study quantitatively assessed how the two approaches influence farmers＇ uptake of the improved sweetpotato varieties and also determined other factors influencing this adoption. This was done by estimating a robust standard errors logit model. Both PPB and PVS positively and significantly influenced the likelihood of adoption of improved sweetpotato varieties at 5% and 10% levels, respectively. Other variables that positively influenced the adoption are extension services, training in sweetpotato production, farming experience, and off-farm income of the household. Farmers who participated in the plant breeding and variety selection processes were 37 and 6.7 times more likely to adopt the improved sweetpotato varieties than those who had not, respectively. Farmers who were trained specifically in sweetpotato production were 8.8 times more likely to adopt the improved varieties than those who had not received this type of training.

A Statistical Analysis of Reliability of Audit Opinions as Bankruptcy Predictors

This research measures the reliability of audit firms in predicting bankruptcy for United States （US） listed financial institutions. The object of analysis is the going concern opinion （GCO）, widely considered as a bankruptcy warning signal to stakeholders. The sample is composed of 42 US listed financial companies that filed for Chapter 11 between 1998 and 2011. To highlight the differences between bankrupting and healthy firms, a matching sample composed of 42 randomly picked healthy US listed financial companies is collected. We concentrate on financial institutions, whereas the existing literature pays considerably greater attention to the industrial sector. This research imbalance is remarkable and particularly unexpected in the wake of recent financial scandals. Literature points out two main approaches on bankruptcy prediction： （1） purely mathematical; and （2） approaches based on a combination of auditor knowledge, expertise, and experience. The use of data mining techniques allows us to benefit from the best features of both approaches. Statistical tools used in the analysis are： Logit regression, support vector machines （SVMs）, and an AdaBoost meta-algorithm. Findings show a quite low reliability of GCOs in predicting bankruptcy. It is likely that auditors consider further information in supporting their audit opinions, aside from financial-economic ratios. The scant predictive ability of auditors might be due to critical relationships with distressed clients, as suggested by recent literature.

A tour-based analysis of travel mode choice accounting for regional transit service

The aim of this work is to explore the impact of regional transit service on tour-based commuter travel behavior by using the Bayesian hierarchical multinomial logit model, accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of the people living in the same area.With two indicators, accessibility and connectivity measured at the zone level, the regional transit service is captured and then related to the travel mode choice behavior. The sample data are selected from Washington-Baltimore Household Travel Survey in 2007,including all the trips from home to workplace in morning hours in Baltimore city. Traditional multinomial logit model using Bayesian approach is also estimated. A comparison of the two different models shows that ignoring the spatial context can lead to a misspecification of the effects of the regional transit service on travel behavior. The results reveal that improving transit service at regional level can be effective in reducing auto use for commuters after controlling for socio-demographics and travel-related factors.This work provides insights for interpreting tour-based commuter travel behavior by using recently developed methodological approaches. The results of this work will be helpful for engineers, urban planners, and transit operators to decide the needs to improve regional transit service and spatial location efficiently.

Modelling Distribution of Under-Five Child Diarrhoea across Malawi

Analysis of diarrhoea data in Malawi has been commonly done using classical methods. However, different approaches, such as Bayesian methods, have been introduced in literature. This study aimed at trying out semi-parametric methods in comparison with classical ones, as well as how each isolates risk factors for child diarrhoea. This was done by fitting Logit, Poisson, and Bayesian models to 2006 Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data. The comparison between Logit and Poisson models was done via chi-square＇s goodness-of-fit test. Confidence and Credible Intervals were used to compare Logit/Poisson and Bayesian model estimates. Modelling and inference in Bayesian method was done through MCMC techniques. The results showed agreement in significance and direction of estimates from Bayesian and Poisson/Logit models, but Poisson provided better fit than Logit model. Further, all the models identified child＇s age, breastfeeding status, region of stay and toilet-sharing status as significant factors for determining the child＇s risk. The models ruled out effects of mother＇s education, area of residence, and source of drinking water on the risk. Bayesian model separately proved significant closeness to lake/river factor. The findings imply that classical and semi-parametric models are equally helpful when estimating the child＇s risk to diarrhoea.

Empirical Study on Driving Factors and Countermeasures of New-type Urbanization in China

The ultimate goal of new-type urbanization is to integrate urban and rural areas, which is influenced by various factors such as urban and rural populations, technology, capital, resources, etc. Accordingly, the need and importance of economic, social, cultural, and ecological factors ought to be analyzed to promote new-type urbanization. In this paper, we first describe the driving factors of new-type urbanization, and then we conduct an empirical study on the driving factors of new-type urbanization and analyze the data with Logit model. Finally, it is put forward that more effort should be made to accelerate new-type urbanization in such aspects as top-down design, government support, social interaction, etc.

Analyzing the Share Composition of C02 Emissions in Asian Countries

This paper is concerned with the fossil fuel composition of carbon emissions in 10 selected Asian countries. It assesses how economic development may affect this composition through various channels. This paper contributes to the debate on the EKC （environmental Kuznets curve） puzzle, which hypothesizes an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and pollution. The paper examines the EKC hypothesis in an empirical analysis of channels that may allow for this effect. In particular, a specific subset of this general paradigm is investigated using a fractional multinomial logit model to assess how indicators associated with economic development and energy prices affect carbon emissions from coal relative to those of natural gas and oil.

Bounding the Inefficiency of the C-Logit Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment

Compared with standard logit-based stochastic user equilibrium assignment model,the C-logit model describes route choice behavior in a more realistic way by considering the overlapping effect between routes.This paper investigates the inefficiency upper bounds of this model against the deterministic system optimum and the C-logit stochastic system optimum in terms of the total network travel time.It is found that the commonality factor of overlapping routes significantly affects the inefficiency bound,besides link congestion degree,total demand and the number of feasible routes.If the commonality factor is not considered,the efficiency loss resulting from selfishly stochastic travel behavior will be to large extent underestimated.