Energy management benefits both consumers and utility companiesalike. Utility companies remain interested in identifying and reducing energywaste and theft, whereas consumers’ interest remain in lowering their energy...Energy management benefits both consumers and utility companiesalike. Utility companies remain interested in identifying and reducing energywaste and theft, whereas consumers’ interest remain in lowering their energyexpenses. A large supply-demand gap of over 6 GW exists in Pakistan asreported in 2018. Reducing this gap from the supply side is an expensiveand complex task. However, efficient energy management and distributionon demand side has potential to reduce this gap economically. Electricityload forecasting models are increasingly used by energy managers in takingreal-time tactical decisions to ensure efficient use of resources. Advancementin Machine-learning (ML) technology has enabled accurate forecasting ofelectricity consumption. However, the impact of computation cost affordedby these ML models is often ignored in favour of accuracy. This studyconsiders both accuracy and computation cost as concurrently significantfactors because together they shape the technology environment as well ascreate economic impact. Thus, a three-fold optimized load forecasting modelis proposed which includes (1) application specific parameters selection, (2)impact of different dataset granularities and (3) implementation of specificdata preparation. It deploys and compares the widely used back-propagationArtificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) models for theprediction of electricity consumption of buildings within a university. In addition to the temporal and historical power consumption date as input parameters, the study also embeds weather data as well as university operationalcalendars resulting in improved performance. The outcomes are indicativethat the granularity i.e. the scale of details in data, and set of reduced and fullinput parameters impact performance accuracies differently for ANN and RFmodels. Experimental results show that overall RF model performed betterboth in terms of accuracy as well as computational time for a 1-min, 15-minand 1-h dataset granularities with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)of 2.42, 3.70 and 4.62 in 11.1 s, 1.14 s and 0.3 s respectively, thus well suitedfor a real-time energy monitoring application.展开更多
Probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)are an effective tool for expressing subjective human cognition that offer advantages in the field ofmulti-attribute decision-making(MADM).However,studies have found that PLTSs...Probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)are an effective tool for expressing subjective human cognition that offer advantages in the field ofmulti-attribute decision-making(MADM).However,studies have found that PLTSs have lost their ability to accurately capture the views of decision-makers(DMs)in certain circumstances,such as when the DM hesitates between multiple linguistic terms or the decision information is incomplete,thus affecting their role in the decision-making process.Belief function theory is a leading streamof thought in uncertainty processing that is suitable for dealing with the limitations of PLTS.Therefore,the purpose of this study is to extend PLTS to incorporate belief function theory.First,we provide the basic concepts of the extended PLTS(i.e.,belief-based PLTS)through case analyses.Second,the aggregation operator of belief-based PLTS is defined with the ordered weighted average(OWA)-based soft likelihood function,which is improved by considering the reliability of the information source.Third,to measure the magnitude of different belief-based PLTSs,the belief interval of singleton is calculated,and the comparison method of belief-based PLTS is constructed based on probabilities.On the basis of the preceding discussion,we further develop an emergency decision framework that includes several novel techniques,such as attribute weight determination and decision information aggregation.Finally,the usefulness of the framework is demonstrated through a case study,and its effectiveness is illustrated through a series of comparisons.展开更多
基金This research is funded by Neurocomputation Lab, National Center ofArtificial Intelligence, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan(PSDP.263/2017-18).
文摘Energy management benefits both consumers and utility companiesalike. Utility companies remain interested in identifying and reducing energywaste and theft, whereas consumers’ interest remain in lowering their energyexpenses. A large supply-demand gap of over 6 GW exists in Pakistan asreported in 2018. Reducing this gap from the supply side is an expensiveand complex task. However, efficient energy management and distributionon demand side has potential to reduce this gap economically. Electricityload forecasting models are increasingly used by energy managers in takingreal-time tactical decisions to ensure efficient use of resources. Advancementin Machine-learning (ML) technology has enabled accurate forecasting ofelectricity consumption. However, the impact of computation cost affordedby these ML models is often ignored in favour of accuracy. This studyconsiders both accuracy and computation cost as concurrently significantfactors because together they shape the technology environment as well ascreate economic impact. Thus, a three-fold optimized load forecasting modelis proposed which includes (1) application specific parameters selection, (2)impact of different dataset granularities and (3) implementation of specificdata preparation. It deploys and compares the widely used back-propagationArtificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) models for theprediction of electricity consumption of buildings within a university. In addition to the temporal and historical power consumption date as input parameters, the study also embeds weather data as well as university operationalcalendars resulting in improved performance. The outcomes are indicativethat the granularity i.e. the scale of details in data, and set of reduced and fullinput parameters impact performance accuracies differently for ANN and RFmodels. Experimental results show that overall RF model performed betterboth in terms of accuracy as well as computational time for a 1-min, 15-minand 1-h dataset granularities with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)of 2.42, 3.70 and 4.62 in 11.1 s, 1.14 s and 0.3 s respectively, thus well suitedfor a real-time energy monitoring application.
基金supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No.17ZDA030).
文摘Probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)are an effective tool for expressing subjective human cognition that offer advantages in the field ofmulti-attribute decision-making(MADM).However,studies have found that PLTSs have lost their ability to accurately capture the views of decision-makers(DMs)in certain circumstances,such as when the DM hesitates between multiple linguistic terms or the decision information is incomplete,thus affecting their role in the decision-making process.Belief function theory is a leading streamof thought in uncertainty processing that is suitable for dealing with the limitations of PLTS.Therefore,the purpose of this study is to extend PLTS to incorporate belief function theory.First,we provide the basic concepts of the extended PLTS(i.e.,belief-based PLTS)through case analyses.Second,the aggregation operator of belief-based PLTS is defined with the ordered weighted average(OWA)-based soft likelihood function,which is improved by considering the reliability of the information source.Third,to measure the magnitude of different belief-based PLTSs,the belief interval of singleton is calculated,and the comparison method of belief-based PLTS is constructed based on probabilities.On the basis of the preceding discussion,we further develop an emergency decision framework that includes several novel techniques,such as attribute weight determination and decision information aggregation.Finally,the usefulness of the framework is demonstrated through a case study,and its effectiveness is illustrated through a series of comparisons.
