ESMO2023:恩扎卢胺联合雄激素剥夺治疗对比安慰剂联合雄激素剥夺治疗在中国转移性激素敏感性前列腺癌患者中的疗效和安全性(中国ARCHES)

2019年发表的全球ARCHES试验(NCT02677896)结果显示,与安慰剂(placebo,PBO)+雄激素剥夺治疗(androgen deprivation therapy,ADT)相比,恩扎卢胺+ADT延长了转移性激素敏感性前列腺癌(metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer,mHSPC)患者的总生存期和放射影像学无进展生存期(radiographic progression-free survival,rPFS)^([1])。然而,该试验无中国患者入组。欧洲肿瘤内科学会(European Society for Medical Oncology,ESMO)2023年会议报道了中国ARCHES研究(NCT04076059)的初步结果,这是一项评估恩扎卢胺+ADTvs.PBO+ADT在中国m HSPC患者中的疗效和安全性的多中心、随机、双盲、PBO对照的Ⅲ期试验^([2])。

Deformation monitoring of long-span railway bridges based on SBAS-InSAR technology

The deformation monitoring of long-span railway bridges is significant to ensure the safety of human life and property.The interferometric synthetic aperture radar(In SAR)technology has the advantage of high accuracy in bridge deformation monitoring.This study monitored the deformation of the Ganjiang Super Bridge based on the small baseline subsets(SBAS)In SAR technology and Sentinel-1A data.We analyzed the deformation results combined with bridge structure,temperature,and riverbed sediment scouring.The results are as follows:(1)The Ganjiang Super Bridge area is stable overall,with deformation rates ranging from-15.6 mm/yr to 10.7 mm/yr(2)The settlement of the Ganjiang Super Bridge deck gradually increases from the bridge tower toward the main span,which conforms to the typical deformation pattern of a cable-stayed bridge.(3)The sediment scouring from the riverbed cause the serious settlement on the bridge’s east side compared with that on the west side.(4)The bridge deformation negatively correlates with temperature,with a faster settlement at a higher temperature and a slow rebound trend at a lower temperature.The study findings can provide scientific data support for the health monitoring of long-span railway bridges.

Health diagnosis of ultrahigh arch dam performance using heterogeneous spatial panel vector model

Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.

Numerical Simulation Analysis of Welded Joints in Arch Ribs of Large Span Steel Pipe Arch Bridges

In order to study the residual stress distribution law of welded joints of arch ribs of large-span steel pipe concrete arch bridges,numerical simulation of temperature,stress and strain fields based on ABAQUS for welded joints of arch-ribbed steel tubes using 7-,8-and 9-layer welds is carried out and its accuracy is demonstrated.The steel pipe welding temperature changes,residual stress distribution,different processes residual stress changes in the law,the prediction of post-weld residual stress distribution and deformation are studied in this paper.The results show that the temperature field values and test results are more consistent with the accuracy of numerical simulation of welding,the welding process is mainly in the form of heat transfer;Residual high stresses are predominantly distributed in the Fusion zone(FZ)and Heat-affected zone(HAZ),with residual stress levels tending to decrease from the center of the weld along the axial path,the maximum stress appears in the FZ and HAZ junction;The number of welding layers has an effect on the residual stress distribution,the number of welding layers increases,the residual stress tends to decrease,while the FZ and HAZ high stress area range shrinks;Increasing the number of plies will increase the amount of residual distortion.

A Nonlinear Explicit Model of A Non-Circular Subsea Tunnel-Liner System with An FGM Inverted Arch Under Mechanical Loading and Fire Fields

This paper proposes an explicit scheme to analyze the failure of a subsea polyhedral tunnel-liner system with an inverted arch under mechanical loading and fire fields.The thin-walled liner is made of Functionally Graded Materials(FGMs),which may improve the stability behavior of the tunnel-liner system.Hydrostatic pressure is inevitable in the liner since underground water may penetrate the cracks of the tunnel,and reach the outer surface of the liner.In addition,an elevated temperature loading is taken into account,considering that fire may occur in the tunnel-liner system.Under the combination of mechanical loading and thermal loading,the liner deforms into a single-lobe shape,which is depicted by a trigonometric function.The total potential energy is expressed quantitatively after the energy approach and thin-walled shell theory are used.The minimum potential energy is obtained when the critical buckling occurs.The critical buckling pressure is calculated,which considers the effect of the thermal field.The present analytical prediction is subsequently compared precisely with other closed-form solutions.Finally,the effects of several parameters,such as the geometric shapes,temperature variations,and volume fraction indices,are discussed to further survey the buckling performance of the nonlinear buckling of an FGM polyhedral liner with an inverted arch.One may address a polyhedral liner with fewer polyhedral sides,and a lower volume fraction index is recommended to rehabilitate cracked tunnels in engineering applications.

Safety of the express freight train running over a long-span bridge

Purpose-Express freight transportation is in rapid development currently.Owing to the higher speed of express freight train,the deformation of the bridge deck worsens the railway line condition under the action of wind and train moving load when the train runs over a long-span bridge.Besides,the blunt car body of vehicle has poor aerodynamic characteristics,bringing a greater challenge on the running stability in the crosswind.Design/methodology/approach-In this study,the aerodynamic force coefficients of express freight vehicles on the bridge are measured by scale model wind tunnel test.The dynamic model of the train-long-span steel truss bridge coupling system is established,and the dynamic response as well as the running safety of vehicle are evaluated.Findings-The results show that wind speed has a significant influence on running safety,which is mainly reflected in the over-limitation of wheel unloading rate.The wind speed limit decreases with train speed,and it reduces to 18.83 m/s when the train speed is 160 km/h.Originality/value-This study deepens the theoretical understanding of the interaction between vehicles and bridges and proposes new methods for analyzing similar engineering problems.It also provides a new theoretical basis for the safety assessment of express freight trains.

Prediction model of surrounding rock deformation in doublecontinuous-arch tunnel based on the ABC-WNN

Purpose–The wavelet neural network(WNN)has the drawbacks of slow convergence speed and easy falling into local optima in data prediction.Although the artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm has strong global optimization ability and fast convergence speed,it also has the drawbacks of slow speed while finding the optimal solution and weak optimization ability in the later stage.Design/methodology/approach–This article uses an ABC algorithm to optimize the WNN and establishes an ABC-WNN analysis model.Based on the example of the Jinan Yuhan underground tunnel project,the deformation of the surrounding rock of the double-arch tunnel crossing the fault fracture zone is predicted and analyzed,and the analysis results are compared with the actual detection amount.Findings–The comparison results show that the predicted values of the ABC-WNN model have a high degree of fitting with the actual engineering data,with a maximum relative error of only 4.73%.On this basis,the results show that the statistical features of ABC-WNN are the lowest,with the errors at 0.566 and 0.573,compared with the single back propagation(BP)neural network model and WNN model.Therefore,it can be derived that the ABC-WNN model has higher prediction accuracy,better computational stability and faster convergence speed for deformation.Originality/value–This article uses firstly the ABC-WNN for the deformation analysis of double-arch tunnels.This attempt laid the foundation for artificial intelligence prediction in deformation analysis of multiarch tunnels and small clearance tunnels.It can provide a new and effective way for deformation prediction in similar projects.

Effects of comprehensive nursing with cognitive behavioral therapy in orthodontic osteodilated arch treatment

BACKGROUND This work explored the effects of cognitive behavior therapy(CBT)-based comprehensive nursing intervention(CNI)mode in arch expansion to treat patients with orthodontic osteodilated arch(OOA).AIM To explore the application effect of CBT-based CNI model in orthodontic expansion arch treatment.METHODS Using convenient sampling method,81 patients with OOA were selected and rolled into a control group(Ctrl group,40 cases)and an observation group(Obs group,41 cases).During the treatment,patients in the Ctrl group received routine nursing intervention mode,and the those in the Obs group received CBT mode on the basis of this.Before and after intervention,the incidence of oral mucositis,the mastery rate of correct arch expansion method,self-rating anxiety scale score,soft scale index,and plaque index were compared for patients in different groups.In addition,satisfaction and complications were comparatively analyzed.RESULTS Incidence of oral mucositis in the Obs group was lower(14.6%vs 38.5%),and the mastery rate of correct arch expansion method was obviously higher(90.2%vs 55.0%)was obviously higher(all P<0.05).Meanwhile,the soft scale index and plaque index in the Obs group were much lower(P<0.05).The compliance(90.24%)and satisfaction(95.12%)in the Obs group were greatly higher(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The CBT-based CNI mode greatly improved the mastery rate of correct arch expansion method during arch expansion in treating patients with OOA and enhanced the therapeutic effect of arch expansion and the oral health of patients,improving the patient compliance.

基于SARIMA-ARCH的电量预测模型

电量预测是供电单位购电的重要依据,是电力经济稳定运行的根本基础。提出采用SARIMA-ARCH融合模型对某地区售电量进行预测。首先,采用季节时间序列分析方法(SARIMA)对月度电量时间序列进行建模,通过ACF和PACF图筛选确定出最佳模型阶数,得到季节性时间序列模型(SARIMA)基础预测模型;提取模型残差的波动性,建立自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型;最后,将SARIMA-ARCH模型与常规SRIAM和ARIMA的预测值进行对比分析。结果表明,SARIMAARCH混合模型的预测精度较高。

基于ARCH族模型的股票超高频数据的波动性研究——以浦发银行为例

论文基于浦发银行股票的逐笔交易数据,利用ARCH族模型对其超高频数据中的波动性进行了研究。论文首先通过对数据的预处理和单位根检验,确保了数据的平稳性,随后应用多种ARCH族模型对波动性进行建模与比较,最终选择TGARCH(2,1,1)模型作为最优模型。该模型不仅能够捕捉数据中的波动集聚效应,还揭示了显著的波动非对称性。研究结果表明,浦发银行的股票收益波动性具有显著的持久性和杠杆效应,负面冲击对波动的影响大于正面冲击。基于这些发现,论文提出了加强高频交易监管、优化投资策略和强化风险管理等政策启示。

Theoretical research on structural damage alarming of long-span bridges using wavelet packet analysis

The state equation and observation equation of the structural dynamic systems under various analysis scales are derived based on wavelet packet analysis. The time-frequency properties of structural dynamic response under various scales are further formulated. The theoretical analysis results reveal that the wavelet packet energy spectrum （WPES） obtained from wavelet packet decomposition of structural dynamic response will detect the presence of structural damage. The sensitivity analysis of the WPES to structural damage and measurement noise is also performed. The transfer properties of the structural system matrix and the observation noise under various analysis scales are formulated, which verify the damage alarming reliability using the proposed WPES with preferable damage sensitivity and noise robusticity.

Longitudinal force in continuously welded rail on long-span tied arch continuous bridge carrying multiple tracks

Considering arch rib, lateral brace, suspender, girder, pier and track position, the model for the interaction between long-span tied arch continuous bridge and multiple tracks was established by using steel-concrete composite section beam element to simulate concrete-filled steel tube(CFST) arch rib, using the beam element with rigid arm to simulate the prestressed concrete girder and using nonlinear bar element to simulate longitudinal constraint between track and bridge. Taking a(77+3×156.8+77) m tied arch continuous bridge with four tracks on the Harbin-Qiqihar Passenger Dedicated Line as an example, the arrangement of continuously welded rail(CWR) was explored. The longitudinal force in CWR on the tied arch continuous bridge, the pier top horizontal force and torque due to the unbalance load case, were analyzed under the action of temperature, vertical live load, train braking and wind load.Studies show that, it can significantly reduce track displacement to set the track expansion devices at main span arch springing on both sides; the track stress due to arch temperature variation can reach 40.8 MPa; the track stress, pier top horizontal force and torque are related to the number of loaded tracks and train running direction, and the bending force applied to unloaded track is close to the loaded track, while the braking force applied to unloaded track is 1/4 to 1/2 of the loaded track; the longitudinal force of track due to the wind load is up to 12.4 MPa, which should be considered.

Sensitive factors research for track-bridge interaction of Long-span X-style steel-box arch bridge on high-speed railway

X-style arch bridge on high-speed railways(HSR)is one kind of complicated long-span structure,and the track-bridge interaction is essential to ensure the safety and smoothness of HSR.Taking an X-style steel-box arch bridge with a main span of450 m on HSR under construction for example,a new integrative mechanic model of rail-stringer-cross beam-suspenderpier-foundation coupling system was established,adopting the nonlinear spring element simulating the longitudinal resistance between track and bridge.The transmission law of continuous welded rail(CWR)on the X-style arch bridge was researched,and comparative study was carried out to discuss the influence of several sensitive factors,such as the temperature load case,the longitudinal resistance model,the scheme of longitudinal restraint conditions,the introverted inclination of arch rib,the stiffness of pier and abutment and the location of the rail expansion device.Calculating results indicate that the longitudinal resistance has a significant impact upon the longitudinal forces of CWR on this kind of bridge,while the arch rib’s inclination has little effect.Besides,temperature variation of arch ribs and suspenders should be taken into account in the calculation.Selecting the restraint system without longitudinally-fixed bearing and setting the rail expansion devices on both ends are more reasonable.

Wind Vibration Study of Long-span Steel Arch Structure of Beijing Capital International Airport

The wind-induced dynamic response of long-span light-weight steel arch structure of the global transportation center (GTC) of Beijing Capital International Airport was studied. A composite technique with combination of WAWS(Weighted Amplitude Wavelet Superposition) and FFT(Fast Fourier Transformation) was introduced to simulate wind velocity time series of hundreds of spatial points simultaneously. The structural shape factors of wind load was obtained from wind tunnel model test. The wind vibration factor based on structural displacement response was investigated. After comparing the computational results with wind tunnel model test data, it was found out that the two results accord with each other if wind comes from 0° direction angle, but are quite different if wind comes from 180° direction angle in the area blocked off by airport terminals. The possible reasons of this difference were analyzed. Haar wavelet was used to transform and analyze wind velocity time series and structural wind-induced dynamic responses. The relationship between exciting wind loads and structural responses was studied in time and frequency domains.

Time-dependent behavior comparison of long-span concrete arch bridge between prototype and model

Beipanjiang Bridge is a long-span concrete arch bridges with stiffened skeleton(CABSS)in China.It has a fixed end arch with the span of 445 m and the rise of 100 m.To evaluate the rationality of the construction sequence and the time-dependent behavior of CABSS,an experimental study of a model bridge was explored.But the measured displacement and stress ratios of arch rib between prototype and model bridge did not subject to linear similarity relation when the time-dependent behavior was considered.So,the three-dimensional finite element models were established,and verified by the measured data.Then,the displacements and stresses of the prototype and model were compared with each other,when the elastic analysis or coupling of temperature and shrinkage,creep effect was considered.Furthermore,a parametric study was studied.The results showed that when the temperature,shrinkage and creep effect of concrete are considered,the finite element analysis results of prototype and model agree well with the measured results.The displacement and stress ratios of prototype and model bridge in construction and bridge completed stage do not present the geometric similarity ratio 7.5 and 1.0,respectively.They are also much influenced by concrete predicting model and variation of temperature.

Mechanical properties and influence mechanism of confined concrete arches in high-stress tunnels

Deep underground projects(e.g., coal mines), are often faced with complex conditions such as high stress and extremely soft rock. The strength and rigidity of the traditional support system are often insufficient,which makes it difficult to meet the requirements of ground control under complex conditions. As a new support form with high strength and rigidity, the confined concrete arch plays an important role in controlling the rock deformation under complex conditions. The section shape of the tunnel has an important impact on the mechanical properties and design of the support system. However, studies on the mechanical properties and influence mechanism of the new confined concrete arch are rarely reported. To this end, the mechanical properties of traditional U-shaped steel and new confined concrete arches are compared and comparative tests on arches of circular and straight-leg semicircular shapes in deep tunnels are conducted. A large mechanical testing system for underground engineering support structure is developed. The mechanical properties and influence mechanism of confined concrete arches with different section shapes under different loading modes and cross-section parameters are systematically studied. Test results show that the bearing capacity of the confined concrete arch is 2.10 times that of the U-shaped steel arch, and the bearing capacity of the circular confined concrete arch is 2.27 times that of the straight-leg semicircular arch. Among the various influencing factors and their engineering parameters,the lateral stress coefficient has the greatest impact on the bearing capacity of the confined concrete arch,followed by the steel pipe wall thickness, steel strength, and core concrete strength. Subsequently, the economic index of bearing capacity and cost is established, and the optimization design method for the confined concrete arch is proposed. Finally, this design method is applied to a high-stress tunnel under complex conditions, and the deformation of the surrounding rock is effectively controlled.

BDS/GPS deformation analysis of a long-span cable-stayed bridge based on colored noise filtering

Combining GPS and BDS technology to monitor the deformation of long-span railway bridges with stricter deformation control requirements is of significance to the safety and control of the bridge and the safety of railway traffic.Previous studies have ignored the influence of coloured noise in the deformation time series.This is not conducive to accurate deformation analysis of long-span railway bridges.Therefore,GPS,BDS and GPS/BDS monitoring data of Ganjiang Bridge located in Ganzhou city,Jiangxi Province,China are adopted in this paper to filter the coloured noise in the deformation time series by principal component analysis(PCA),and the influence of coloured noise on the deformation analysis results of railway bridge is analysed.The experimental results show that the diurnal temperature difference causes the mid-span and the tower of the railway cable-stayed bridge to deform with a period of about one day in the vertical and longitudinal directions,respectively.Ignoring colored noise will make the uncertainty of the deformation parameter estimation overly optimistic.PCA can significantly reduce the coloured noise,and thus reduce the uncertainty of deformation parameter estimation by about 73%.Moreover,the average difference between the daily periodic motion amplitudes of the monitoring points obtained by using GPS and BDS deformation time series is 1.65 mm.The use of GPS/BDS deformation time series is not only helpful to reduce the influence of coloured noise,but also can reduce the difference between amplitude analysis results obtained from GPS and BDS deformation time series.

Deformation critical threshold estimation of Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam with time-varying grey model

The structural behavior of the Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam is primarily influenced by external loads and time-varying characteristics of dam concrete and foundation rock mass during long-term operation. According to overload testing with a geological model and the measured time series of installed perpendicular lines, the space and time evolution characteristics of the arch dam structure were analyzed, and its mechanical performance was evaluated. Subsequently, the deformation centroid of the deflective curve was suggested to indicate the magnitude and unique distribution rules for a typical dam section using the measured deformation values at multi-monitoring points. The ellipse equations of the critical ellipsoid for the centroid were derived from the historical measured time series. Hydrostatic and seasonal components were extracted from the measured deformation values with a traditional statistical model, and residuals were adopted as a grey component. A time-varying grey model was developed to accurately predict the evolution of the deformation behavior of the ultrahigh arch dam during future operation. In the developed model, constant coefficients were modified so as to be time-dependent functions, and the prediction accuracy was significantly improved through introduction of a forgetting factor. Finally, the critical threshold was estimated, and predicted ellipsoids were derived for the Xiaowan arch dam. The findings of this study can provide technical support for safety evaluation of the actual operation of ultrahigh arch dams and help to provide early warning of abnormal changes.

基于ARCH类模型的农产品价格波动特征研究

基于2011年1月至2022年8月的月度价格指数,运用自回归条件异方差ARCH类模型对猪肉、牛肉、棉花、大豆、稻谷、羊肉六种农产品进行价格波动特征分析研究。结果表明:具有较为显著的ARCH效应是牛肉、大豆、猪肉、棉花这四种农产品;其中农产品价格具有波动集聚性特征的是牛肉、大豆、猪肉、棉花;牛肉、大豆、猪肉、棉花价格不具备高风险和高报酬的特征;农产品价格均具有非对称性是棉花、大豆、猪肉。基于研究分析结果,本文提出相关政策建议,为农产品市场价格调控提供参考。

Structural Damage Identification System Suitable for Old Arch Bridge in Rural Regions: Random Forest Approach

A huge number of old arch bridges located in rural regions are at the peak of maintenance.The health monitoring technology of the long-span bridge is hardly applicable to the small-span bridge,owing to the absence of technical resources and sufficient funds in rural regions.There is an urgent need for an economical,fast,and accurate damage identification solution.The authors proposed a damage identification system of an old arch bridge implemented with amachine learning algorithm,which took the vehicle-induced response as the excitation.A damage index was defined based on wavelet packet theory,and a machine learning sample database collecting the denoised response was constructed.Through comparing three machine learning algorithms:Back-Propagation Neural Network(BPNN),Support Vector Machine(SVM),and Random Forest(R.F.),the R.F.damage identification model were found to have a better recognition ability.Finally,the Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)algorithm was used to optimize the number of subtrees and split features of the R.F.model.The PSO optimized R.F.model was capable of the identification of different damage levels of old arch bridges with sensitive damage index.The proposed framework is practical and promising for the old bridge’s structural damage identification in rural regions.