Interest rates are the key to the resource allocations of financial markets.The frequent appearance of negative nominal interest rates(NNIR)may lead to a failure of the transmission mechanism and arouse system risks i...Interest rates are the key to the resource allocations of financial markets.The frequent appearance of negative nominal interest rates(NNIR)may lead to a failure of the transmission mechanism and arouse system risks in the financial markets.Meanwhile,negative nominal interest rates is a new policy with no consensus reached by academia or policymakers.It is necessary to review the research results and promote consensus to reveal the nature and impact mechanisms of NNIR.Therefore,we retrieved original articles from the Web of Science(WoS)and China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)published from 1999 to 2020 on NNIR to determine the characteristics of current research results from various perspectives and compare literature in English and Chinese of highly productive institutions and researchers,hot topics,evolution contexts,research frontiers,and ecological characteristics.There are three major findings.In terms of research ecology,the ecological structure of the top research institutions,both domestic and abroad,remains steady,but the structure of the researchers is not stable.In terms of a research domain,NNIR is studied from many dimensions,and the early established research domains still have long-lasting impacts in English literature.In contrast,Chinese literature mainly focuses on discussing applicable policies with no highly focused domain and research topic with great influence yet.Finally,the focus in both English and Chinese literature has changed.Since the original research framework is insufficient in explanatory power,literature in English is beginning to pay attention to the empirical analyses of practical policies,and Chinese scholars are turning to theoretical study to enhance the in-depth understanding of this phenomenon.Researchers in China should focus on collecting high-quality research materials and pay more attention to the progress of empirical research in English literature to improve Chinese research efficiency and quality and then promote research progress in China.展开更多
Application of fertilizer has been found to significantly affect soil N cycling. However, a comprehensive understanding of the effects of long-term fertilization on soil gross N transformation rates is still lacking. ...Application of fertilizer has been found to significantly affect soil N cycling. However, a comprehensive understanding of the effects of long-term fertilization on soil gross N transformation rates is still lacking. We compiled data of observations from 10 long-term fertilization experiments and conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of long-term fertilization on soil gross N transformation rates. The results showed that if chemical fertilizers of N, P and K were applied in balance, soil p H decreased very slightly. There was a significantly positive effect of long-term fertilization, either chemical or organic fertilizers or their combinations, on gross N mineralization rate compared to the control treatment(the mean effect size ranged from 1.21 to 1.25 at 95% confidence intervals(CI) with a mean of 1.23), mainly due to the increasing soil total N content. The long-term application of organic fertilizer alone and combining organic and chemical fertilizer could increase the mineralization-immobilization turnover, thus enhance available N for plant while reduce N losses potential compared to the control treatment. However, long-term chemical fertilizer application did not significantly affect the gross NH4+ immobilization rate, but accelerated gross nitrification rate(1.19; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.31). Thus, long-term chemical fertilizer alone would probably induce higher N losses potential through NO3– leaching and runoff than organic fertilizer application compared to the control treatment. Therefore, in the view of the effects of long-term fertilization on gross N transformation rates, it also supports that organic fertilizer alone or combination of organic and chemical fertilizer could not only improve crop yield, but also increase soil fertility and reduce the N losses potential.展开更多
BACKGROUND With stiff competition from alternative albeit more expensive counterparts,it has become important to establish the applicability of metallic anchors for shoulder instability in the modern era.This can be a...BACKGROUND With stiff competition from alternative albeit more expensive counterparts,it has become important to establish the applicability of metallic anchors for shoulder instability in the modern era.This can be accomplished,in part,by analysing long-term outcomes.AIM To analyse minimum 10-year outcomes from 30 patients following arthroscopic anterior stabilisation using metallic anchors.METHODS Prospectively collected data from arthroscopic Bankart repairs performed using metal anchors during 2007P-2010 were retrospectively analysed in this singlesurgeon study.Comprehensive data collection included historical and clinical findings,dislocation details,operative specifics,and follow-up radiological and clinical findings including shoulder scores.The primary outcomes were patientreported scores(Constant,American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons[ASES],and Rowe scores)and pain and instability on a visual analogue scale(VAS).RESULTS A 3% recurrence rate of dislocation was noted at the final follow-up.Total constant scores at 10 years postoperatively measured between 76 and 100(mean 89)were significantly better than preoperative scores(mean 62.7).Congruous improvements were also noted in the Rowe and ASES scores and VAS at the 10-year review.CONCLUSION Reliable long-term outcomes with metallic anchors in surgery for shoulder instability can be expected.Our results provide additional evidence of their continued,cost-effective presence in the modern scenario.展开更多
In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai (Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16(2002), 309-324). We consider the computation for the distribution of duratio...In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai (Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16(2002), 309-324). We consider the computation for the distribution of duration of first negative surplus and the algorithm is shown for calculating probability that ruin occurs and the duration of first negative surplus takes any nonnegative integers values. Numerical illustration for the main result is given.展开更多
AIMTo assess the prevalence of depressed heart rate variability (HRV) after an acute myocardial infarction (MI), and to evaluate its prognostic significance in the present era of immediate reperfusion.METHODSTime-doma...AIMTo assess the prevalence of depressed heart rate variability (HRV) after an acute myocardial infarction (MI), and to evaluate its prognostic significance in the present era of immediate reperfusion.METHODSTime-domain HRV (obtained from 24-h Holter recordings) was assessed in 326 patients (63.5 ± 12.1 years old; 80% males), two weeks after a complicated MI treated by early reperfusion: 208 ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients (in which reperfusion was successfully obtained within 6 h of symptoms in 94% of cases) and 118 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients (percutaneous coronary intervention was performed within 24 h and successful in 73% of cases). Follow-up of the patients was performed via telephone interviews a median of 25 mo after the index event (95%CI of the mean 23.3-28.0). Primary end-point was occurrence of all-cause or cardiac death; secondary end-point was occurrence of major clinical events (MCE, defined as mortality or readmission for new MI, new revascularization, episodes of heart failure or stroke). Possible correlations between HRV parameters (mainly the standard deviation of all normal RR intervals, SDNN), clinical features (age, sex, type of MI, history of diabetes, left ventricle ejection fraction), angiographic characteristics (number of coronary arteries with critical stenoses, success and completeness of revascularization) and long-term outcomes were analysed.RESULTSMarkedly depressed HRV parameters were present in a relatively small percentage of patients: SDNN < 70 ms was found in 16% and SDNN < 50 ms in 4% of cases. No significant differences were present between STEMI and NSTEMI cases as regards to their distribution among quartiles of SDNN (χ<sup>2</sup> =1.536, P = 0.674). Female sex and history of diabetes maintained a significant correlation with lower values of SDNN at multivariate Cox regression analysis (respectively: P = 0.008 and P = 0.008), while no correlation was found between depressed SDNN and history of previous MI (P = 0.999) or number of diseased coronary arteries (P = 0.428) or unsuccessful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (P = 0.691). Patients with left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% presented more often SDNN values in the lowest quartile (P < 0.001). After > 2 years from infarction, a total of 10 patients (3.1%) were lost to follow-up. Overall incidence of MCE at follow-up was similar between STEMI and NSTEMI (P = 0.141), although all-cause and cardiac mortality were higher among NSTEMI cases (respectively: 14% vs 2%, P = 0.001; and 10% vs 1.5%, P = 0.001). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all-cause mortality and for cardiac deaths did not reveal significant differences between patients with SDNN in the lowest quartile and other quartiles of SDNN (respectively: P = 0.137 and P = 0.527). Also the MCE-free survival curves were similar between the group of patients with SDNN in the lowest quartile vs the patients of the other SDNN quartiles (P = 0.540), with no difference for STEMI (P = 0.180) or NSTEMI patients (P = 0.541). By the contrary, events-free survival was worse if patients presented with LVEF < 40% (P = 0.001).CONCLUSIONIn our group of patients with a recent complicated MI, abnormal autonomic parameters have been found with a prevalence that was similar for STEMI and NSTEMI cases, and substantially unchanged in comparison to what reported in the pre-primary-PCI era. Long-term outcomes did not correlate with level of depression of HRV parameters recorded in the subacute phase of the disease, both in STEMI and in NSTEMI patients. These results support lack of prognostic significance of traditional HRV parameters when immediate coronary reperfusion is utilised.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to select the optimal amount of controlled-release fertilizer and provide theoretical references for controlled-release fertilizers use in summer maize. [Method] Long-term controlled-release fe...[Objective] The aim was to select the optimal amount of controlled-release fertilizer and provide theoretical references for controlled-release fertilizers use in summer maize. [Method] Long-term controlled-release fertilizers were applied once at sowing summer maize to explore effects on maize growth, yield, economic profits and environment. [Result] Maize yield reduced a little in the treatment group with 60% CRF, and increased in varying degrees in the rest groups in the range of 1.1%-7.4%, and some showed significant differences. [Conclusion] Controlled-release fertilizers can be applied once at the amount of 80% common fertilizer's, with con- sideration of maize yield, nitrogen use rate and economic profits, which is beneficial for summer maize application and promotion in North China.展开更多
AIM: To investigate the quality of life following lapa-roscopic Nissen fundoplication by assessing short-term and long-term outcomes. METHODS: From 1992 to 2005, 249 patients under-went laparoscopic Nissen fundoplicat...AIM: To investigate the quality of life following lapa-roscopic Nissen fundoplication by assessing short-term and long-term outcomes. METHODS: From 1992 to 2005, 249 patients under-went laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication. Short-term outcome data including symptom response, side effects of surgery, endoscopy, and patient's perception of over-all success were collected prospectively. Long-term out-comes were investigated retrospectively in patients witha median follow-up of 10 years by assessment of reflux symptoms, side effects of surgery, durability of antire-flux surgery, need for additional treatment, patient's perception of success, and quality of life. Antireflux sur-gery was considered a failure based on the following criteria: moderate to severe heartburn or regurgitation; moderate to severe dysphagia reported in combination with heartburn or regurgitation; regular proton pump inhibitor medication use; endoscopic evidence of erosive esophagitis Savary-Miller grade 1-4; pathological 24-h pH monitoring; or necessity to undergo an additional surgery. The main outcome measures were short-and long-term cure rates and quality of life, with patient sat-isfaction as a secondary outcome measure. RESULTS: Conversion from laparoscopy to open sur-gery was necessary in 2.4% of patients. Mortality was zero and the 30-d morbidity was 7.6% (95%CI: 4.7%-11.7%). The median postoperative hospital stay was 2 d [interquartile range (IQR) 2-3 d]. Two hundred and forty-seven patients were interviewed for short-term analysis following endoscopy. Gastro-esophageal reflux disease was cured in 98.4% (95%CI: 95.9%-99.6%) of patients three months after surgery. New-onset dysphagia was encountered postoperatively in 13 patients (6.7%); 95% reported that the outcome was better after antireflux surgery than with preopera-tive medical treatment. One hundred and thirty-nine patients with a median follow-up of 10.2 years (IQR 7.2-11.6 years) were available for a long-term evalu-ation. Cumulative long-term cure rates were 87.7% (81.0%-92.2%) at 5 years and 72.9% (64.0%-79.9%) at 10 years. Gastrointestinal symptom rating scores and RAND-36 quality of life scores of patients with treatment success were similar to those of the general population but significantly lower in those with failed antireflux surgery. Of the patients available for long-term follow-up, 83% rated their operation a success. CONCLUSION: For the long-term, our results indicate decreasing effectiveness of laparoscopic antirefluxsurgery, although most of the patients seem to have an overall quality of life similar to that of the general population.展开更多
Accurate insight into the heat generation rate(HGR) of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs) is one of key issues for battery management systems to formulate thermal safety warning strategies in advance.For this reason,this pap...Accurate insight into the heat generation rate(HGR) of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs) is one of key issues for battery management systems to formulate thermal safety warning strategies in advance.For this reason,this paper proposes a novel physics-informed neural network(PINN) approach for HGR estimation of LIBs under various driving conditions.Specifically,a single particle model with thermodynamics(SPMT) is first constructed for extracting the critical physical knowledge related with battery HGR.Subsequently,the surface concentrations of positive and negative electrodes in battery SPMT model are integrated into the bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM) networks as physical information.And combined with other feature variables,a novel PINN approach to achieve HGR estimation of LIBs with higher accuracy is constituted.Additionally,some critical hyperparameters of BiLSTM used in PINN approach are determined through Bayesian optimization algorithm(BOA) and the results of BOA-based BiLSTM are compared with other traditional BiLSTM/LSTM networks.Eventually,combined with the HGR data generated from the validated virtual battery,it is proved that the proposed approach can well predict the battery HGR under the dynamic stress test(DST) and worldwide light vehicles test procedure(WLTP),the mean absolute error under DST is 0.542 kW/m^(3),and the root mean square error under WLTP is1.428 kW/m^(3)at 25℃.Lastly,the investigation results of this paper also show a new perspective in the application of the PINN approach in battery HGR estimation.展开更多
Black soil is one of the most precious soil resources on earth because it has abundant carbon stocks and a relatively high production capacity. However, decreasing organic matter after land reclamation, and the effect...Black soil is one of the most precious soil resources on earth because it has abundant carbon stocks and a relatively high production capacity. However, decreasing organic matter after land reclamation, and the effects of long-term inputs of organic carbon have made it less fertile black soil in Northeast China. Straw return could be an effective method for improving soil organic carbon(SOC) sequestration in black soils. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether straw return effectively increases SOC sequestration. Long-term field experiments were conducted at three sites in Northeast China with varying latitudes and SOC densities. Study plots were subjected to three treatments: no fertilization(CK); inorganic fertilization(NPK); and NPK plus straw return(NPKS). The results showed that the SOC stocks resulting from NPKS treatment were 4.0 and 5.7% higher than those from NPK treatment at two sites, but straw return did not significantly affect the SOC stocks at the third site. Furthermore, at higher SOC densities, the NPKS treatment resulted in significantly higher soil carbon sequestration rates(CSR) than the NPK treatment. The equilibrium value of the CSR for the NPKS treatment equated to cultivation times of 17, 11, and 8 years at the different sites. Straw return did not significantly increase the SOC stocks in regions with low SOC densities, but did enhance the C pool in regions with high SOC densities. These results show that there is strong regional variation in the effects of straw return on the SOC stocks in black soil in Northeast China. Additional cultivations and fertilization practices should be used when straw return is considered as an approach for the long-term improvement of the soil organic carbon pool.展开更多
Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water,which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate studies.Given its key indicator in climat...Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water,which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate studies.Given its key indicator in climate signals,it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate dynamics.In this paper,we evaluated the ability of 21 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the subduction rate.In general,the simulation ability of the models to the subduction climatology is better than that to the long-term variation trend.Based on the comprehensive analysis of climatology distribution and long-term trend of the subduction rate,GISS-E2-1-G performs better in reproducing the subduction rate climatology and IPSL-CM6A-LR can simulate positive long-term trend for both the global mean subduction rate and the lateral induction term in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region.However,it is still challenging to capture both the distribution characteristics of the subduction climatology and the long-term temporal trend for the 21 CMIP6 models.In addition,the model results demonstrate that,the ACC area is the major region contributing to the long-term trend of the global mean subduction rate.The analysis in this paper indicates that the poor simulation ability of reproducing the long-term trend of global mean subduction rate might be attributed to the ocean dynamics,for example,the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer and zonal gradient of mixed layer depth.展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute stress might increase short-term heart rate variability and blood pressure variability(BPV);however,chronic stress would not alter short-term BPV in animal models.AIM To examine the association of psy...BACKGROUND Acute stress might increase short-term heart rate variability and blood pressure variability(BPV);however,chronic stress would not alter short-term BPV in animal models.AIM To examine the association of psychological stress with long-term BPV in young male humans.METHODS We prospectively examined the association of chronic psychological stress with long-term BPV in 1112 healthy military males,averaged 32.2 years from the cardiorespiratory fitness and hospitalization events in armed forces study in Taiwan.Psychological stress was quantitatively evaluated with the Brief Symptom Rating Scale(BSRS-5),from the least symptom of 0 to the most severe of 20,and the five components of anxiety,insomnia,depression,interpersonal sensitivity,and hostility(the severity score in each component from 0 to 4).Longterm BPV was assessed by standard deviation(SD)for systolic and diastolic blood pressure(SBP and DBP),and average real variability(ARV),defined as the average absolute difference between successive measurements of SBP or DBP,across four visits in the study period from 2012 to 2018(2012-14,2014-15,2015-16,and 2016-18).RESULTS The results of multivariable linear regressions showed that there were no correlations of the BSRS-5 score with SDSBP,SDDBP,ARVSBP,and ARVDBP after adjusting for all the covariates[β(SE):-0.022(0.024),-0.023(0.026),-0.001(0.018),and 0.001(0.020),respectively;P>0.05 for all].In addition,there were also no correlations between each component of the BSRS score and the long-term BPV indexes.CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that chronic psychological stress might not be associated with long-term BPV in military young male humans.展开更多
When we try to estimate future environmental costs resulting from our current economic activities,we usually calculate the present value of the consequences for our future generations by utilizing a discount rate as a...When we try to estimate future environmental costs resulting from our current economic activities,we usually calculate the present value of the consequences for our future generations by utilizing a discount rate as a standard economic procedure.The popularity of this procedure is solely supported by its simplicity which assumes:(1)a perfect financial market over even 100 years,and(2)existence of a stable time preference between two consecutive periods for an individual consumer.An apparent deficiency of this approach is that the present value of life quality of future generations varies to a large extent along an arbitrarily chosen discount rate.As a matter of fact,the discount rate,which could reflect the time preference as2%or 5%,matters when we predict current strategies of environmental protection for future generations.Simply applying a discount rate to evaluate the quality of our future generation,without clarifying the actual production mechanism behind this,is almost to the same as ignoring the fact that all of the goods are produced through an actual production process and that environmental degradation reduces the efficiency of that process.The greatest concern for our future generations should not be given by an assumed discount rate,since the discount rate itself is determined by financial market conditions at certain points in time.展开更多
In this study, we compared the serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and arginase-1 in long-term survival kidney transplant recipients (LTSKTRs) with those in short-te...In this study, we compared the serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and arginase-1 in long-term survival kidney transplant recipients (LTSKTRs) with those in short-term survival kidney transplant recipients (STSKTRs). We then evaluated the relationship between these levels and graft function. Blood samples were collected from 50 adult LTSKTRs and 20 STSKTRs (graft survival approximately 1-3 years post-transplantation). All patients had stable kidney function. The samples were collected at our institution during the patients' follow-up examinations between March 2017 and September 2017. The plasma levels of TGF-β1, IL- 10, and arginase- 1 were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). The levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were significantly higher in the LTSKTRs than in the STSKTRs. The time elapsed since transplantation was positively correlated with the levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 in the LTSKTRs. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with the TGF-β1 level, and the serum creatinine level was negatively correlated with the TGF-β1 level. Higher serum levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were found in LTSKTRs than in STSKTRs, and we found that TGF-β1 was positively correlated with long-term graft survival and function. Additionally, TGF-β1 and arginase-1 levels were positively correlated with the time elapsed since transplantation. On the basis of these findings, TGF-β1 and arginase- 1 may play important roles in determining long-term graft survival. Thus, we propose that TGF-β1 and arginase-1 may potentially be used as predictive markers for evaluating long-term graft survival.展开更多
Background:To evaluate the efficacy of stent-assisted coiling(SAC)for the treatment of carotid ophthalmic segment aneurysm segment aneurysms(OSAs)of the internal carotid artery(ICA)through detailed long-term follow-up...Background:To evaluate the efficacy of stent-assisted coiling(SAC)for the treatment of carotid ophthalmic segment aneurysm segment aneurysms(OSAs)of the internal carotid artery(ICA)through detailed long-term follow-up of a large patient cohort.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed 88 consecutive patients with OSAs between January 2009 and January 2020 at our center.Angiographic results were evaluated using the modified Raymond grading system and clinical outcomes were evaluated using the mRS scale.The primary endpoints were major aneurysm recurrence and poor clinical outcomes for at least 18 months of follow-up.The patients were asked to attend clinical follow-up assessments and possibly undergo DSA or MR via telephone.Results:We enrolled 88 patients with 99 OSAs treated with coiling,of whom 76 were treated with SAC.The coiling procedures were successful in all 88 patients.Overall,complications occurred in 8 patients(9.1%).No procedure-related mortality was observed.67(76.1%)experienced immediate aneurysm occlusion at the end of the procedure.Long-term angiographic follow-up(18 months)was available in 45/88 aneurysms(51%)(average 18.7±5.2 months).Four patients continued their follow-up for 5 years after initial aneurysm treatment.After a clinical follow-up time of 28.7 months(range,12-51 months),85 patients(95.5%)achieved favorable clinical outcomes(mRS scores of 0-2).Conclusions:This study indicates that SAC treatment is a safe and effective therapeutic alternative for ruptured and unruptured OSAs.The procedural risks are low with relatively long-term effectiveness.展开更多
The world economic growth in 2016,counted on the Purchasing Power Parity(PPP),was 3.1%,a drop somewhat from that of 2015,global growth rate continuing to slow down,global debts continuing to increase,international fin...The world economic growth in 2016,counted on the Purchasing Power Parity(PPP),was 3.1%,a drop somewhat from that of 2015,global growth rate continuing to slow down,global debts continuing to increase,international financial market becoming more fragile and international trade and investment becoming more bleak.As gap of household income and wealth widens and anti-globalization tendency is on the increase,the world economy is in face of quite展开更多
Since Piketty offered a new view of capital/income ratio, numerous attempts have been made to examine the relationship between return on capital, economic growth and the capital/income ratio. This paper attempts to sh...Since Piketty offered a new view of capital/income ratio, numerous attempts have been made to examine the relationship between return on capital, economic growth and the capital/income ratio. This paper attempts to shed new light on this field. More precisely, following recent literatures that pay attention to dynamics of external balance sheets of countries, we examine if Piketty’s results for large countries are robust for a country that takes the world rate of return on capital as given and whose savings rate increases gradually from negative value. It is revealed that for such a country, (1) Kuznets curve is drawn and (2) capital/income ratio decreases in accordance with a rise in savings rate and return on capital.展开更多
Objective To research the factors that affects the efficacy of 2 826 cases of of trigeminal neuralgia after microvascular decompression during follow-up more than 1 year. Methods The patients with trigeminal meuralgia...Objective To research the factors that affects the efficacy of 2 826 cases of of trigeminal neuralgia after microvascular decompression during follow-up more than 1 year. Methods The patients with trigeminal meuralgia were followed-up for 1-25 years ( mean 9. 8 years) after microvascular decompression from January 1984 to展开更多
In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve...In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures.Hence,in February 2016,the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds(JGB).The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds,a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs.On the one hand,banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative.The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative.On the other hand,bank loans to corporates did not increase,due to Japanese economy’s vertical investment-saving(IS)curve.The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy.It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical.That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low.Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy.The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2%inflation target in the present low oil price era.展开更多
The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on centr...The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.展开更多
基金Planning Projects on Philosophy and Social Sciences of Shanghai(2020BJB020).
文摘Interest rates are the key to the resource allocations of financial markets.The frequent appearance of negative nominal interest rates(NNIR)may lead to a failure of the transmission mechanism and arouse system risks in the financial markets.Meanwhile,negative nominal interest rates is a new policy with no consensus reached by academia or policymakers.It is necessary to review the research results and promote consensus to reveal the nature and impact mechanisms of NNIR.Therefore,we retrieved original articles from the Web of Science(WoS)and China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)published from 1999 to 2020 on NNIR to determine the characteristics of current research results from various perspectives and compare literature in English and Chinese of highly productive institutions and researchers,hot topics,evolution contexts,research frontiers,and ecological characteristics.There are three major findings.In terms of research ecology,the ecological structure of the top research institutions,both domestic and abroad,remains steady,but the structure of the researchers is not stable.In terms of a research domain,NNIR is studied from many dimensions,and the early established research domains still have long-lasting impacts in English literature.In contrast,Chinese literature mainly focuses on discussing applicable policies with no highly focused domain and research topic with great influence yet.Finally,the focus in both English and Chinese literature has changed.Since the original research framework is insufficient in explanatory power,literature in English is beginning to pay attention to the empirical analyses of practical policies,and Chinese scholars are turning to theoretical study to enhance the in-depth understanding of this phenomenon.Researchers in China should focus on collecting high-quality research materials and pay more attention to the progress of empirical research in English literature to improve Chinese research efficiency and quality and then promote research progress in China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41330744)the “973” Program of China (2014CB953803)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, China (164320H116)
文摘Application of fertilizer has been found to significantly affect soil N cycling. However, a comprehensive understanding of the effects of long-term fertilization on soil gross N transformation rates is still lacking. We compiled data of observations from 10 long-term fertilization experiments and conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of long-term fertilization on soil gross N transformation rates. The results showed that if chemical fertilizers of N, P and K were applied in balance, soil p H decreased very slightly. There was a significantly positive effect of long-term fertilization, either chemical or organic fertilizers or their combinations, on gross N mineralization rate compared to the control treatment(the mean effect size ranged from 1.21 to 1.25 at 95% confidence intervals(CI) with a mean of 1.23), mainly due to the increasing soil total N content. The long-term application of organic fertilizer alone and combining organic and chemical fertilizer could increase the mineralization-immobilization turnover, thus enhance available N for plant while reduce N losses potential compared to the control treatment. However, long-term chemical fertilizer application did not significantly affect the gross NH4+ immobilization rate, but accelerated gross nitrification rate(1.19; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.31). Thus, long-term chemical fertilizer alone would probably induce higher N losses potential through NO3– leaching and runoff than organic fertilizer application compared to the control treatment. Therefore, in the view of the effects of long-term fertilization on gross N transformation rates, it also supports that organic fertilizer alone or combination of organic and chemical fertilizer could not only improve crop yield, but also increase soil fertility and reduce the N losses potential.
文摘BACKGROUND With stiff competition from alternative albeit more expensive counterparts,it has become important to establish the applicability of metallic anchors for shoulder instability in the modern era.This can be accomplished,in part,by analysing long-term outcomes.AIM To analyse minimum 10-year outcomes from 30 patients following arthroscopic anterior stabilisation using metallic anchors.METHODS Prospectively collected data from arthroscopic Bankart repairs performed using metal anchors during 2007P-2010 were retrospectively analysed in this singlesurgeon study.Comprehensive data collection included historical and clinical findings,dislocation details,operative specifics,and follow-up radiological and clinical findings including shoulder scores.The primary outcomes were patientreported scores(Constant,American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons[ASES],and Rowe scores)and pain and instability on a visual analogue scale(VAS).RESULTS A 3% recurrence rate of dislocation was noted at the final follow-up.Total constant scores at 10 years postoperatively measured between 76 and 100(mean 89)were significantly better than preoperative scores(mean 62.7).Congruous improvements were also noted in the Rowe and ASES scores and VAS at the 10-year review.CONCLUSION Reliable long-term outcomes with metallic anchors in surgery for shoulder instability can be expected.Our results provide additional evidence of their continued,cost-effective presence in the modern scenario.
基金The NNSF (10671072) of China"Shu Guang" project (04SG27) of Shanghai Municipal Education CommissionShanghai Education Development Foundation
文摘In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai (Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16(2002), 309-324). We consider the computation for the distribution of duration of first negative surplus and the algorithm is shown for calculating probability that ruin occurs and the duration of first negative surplus takes any nonnegative integers values. Numerical illustration for the main result is given.
文摘AIMTo assess the prevalence of depressed heart rate variability (HRV) after an acute myocardial infarction (MI), and to evaluate its prognostic significance in the present era of immediate reperfusion.METHODSTime-domain HRV (obtained from 24-h Holter recordings) was assessed in 326 patients (63.5 ± 12.1 years old; 80% males), two weeks after a complicated MI treated by early reperfusion: 208 ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients (in which reperfusion was successfully obtained within 6 h of symptoms in 94% of cases) and 118 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients (percutaneous coronary intervention was performed within 24 h and successful in 73% of cases). Follow-up of the patients was performed via telephone interviews a median of 25 mo after the index event (95%CI of the mean 23.3-28.0). Primary end-point was occurrence of all-cause or cardiac death; secondary end-point was occurrence of major clinical events (MCE, defined as mortality or readmission for new MI, new revascularization, episodes of heart failure or stroke). Possible correlations between HRV parameters (mainly the standard deviation of all normal RR intervals, SDNN), clinical features (age, sex, type of MI, history of diabetes, left ventricle ejection fraction), angiographic characteristics (number of coronary arteries with critical stenoses, success and completeness of revascularization) and long-term outcomes were analysed.RESULTSMarkedly depressed HRV parameters were present in a relatively small percentage of patients: SDNN < 70 ms was found in 16% and SDNN < 50 ms in 4% of cases. No significant differences were present between STEMI and NSTEMI cases as regards to their distribution among quartiles of SDNN (χ<sup>2</sup> =1.536, P = 0.674). Female sex and history of diabetes maintained a significant correlation with lower values of SDNN at multivariate Cox regression analysis (respectively: P = 0.008 and P = 0.008), while no correlation was found between depressed SDNN and history of previous MI (P = 0.999) or number of diseased coronary arteries (P = 0.428) or unsuccessful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (P = 0.691). Patients with left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% presented more often SDNN values in the lowest quartile (P < 0.001). After > 2 years from infarction, a total of 10 patients (3.1%) were lost to follow-up. Overall incidence of MCE at follow-up was similar between STEMI and NSTEMI (P = 0.141), although all-cause and cardiac mortality were higher among NSTEMI cases (respectively: 14% vs 2%, P = 0.001; and 10% vs 1.5%, P = 0.001). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all-cause mortality and for cardiac deaths did not reveal significant differences between patients with SDNN in the lowest quartile and other quartiles of SDNN (respectively: P = 0.137 and P = 0.527). Also the MCE-free survival curves were similar between the group of patients with SDNN in the lowest quartile vs the patients of the other SDNN quartiles (P = 0.540), with no difference for STEMI (P = 0.180) or NSTEMI patients (P = 0.541). By the contrary, events-free survival was worse if patients presented with LVEF < 40% (P = 0.001).CONCLUSIONIn our group of patients with a recent complicated MI, abnormal autonomic parameters have been found with a prevalence that was similar for STEMI and NSTEMI cases, and substantially unchanged in comparison to what reported in the pre-primary-PCI era. Long-term outcomes did not correlate with level of depression of HRV parameters recorded in the subacute phase of the disease, both in STEMI and in NSTEMI patients. These results support lack of prognostic significance of traditional HRV parameters when immediate coronary reperfusion is utilised.
基金Supported by S&T Development Plan Program of Shandong Province(2014GNC113001)State Key Laboratory for Biology of Crops(2014KF11)S&T Development Plan Program of Tai'an City~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to select the optimal amount of controlled-release fertilizer and provide theoretical references for controlled-release fertilizers use in summer maize. [Method] Long-term controlled-release fertilizers were applied once at sowing summer maize to explore effects on maize growth, yield, economic profits and environment. [Result] Maize yield reduced a little in the treatment group with 60% CRF, and increased in varying degrees in the rest groups in the range of 1.1%-7.4%, and some showed significant differences. [Conclusion] Controlled-release fertilizers can be applied once at the amount of 80% common fertilizer's, with con- sideration of maize yield, nitrogen use rate and economic profits, which is beneficial for summer maize application and promotion in North China.
基金Supported by EVO-funding of the Central Hospital of Central Finland
文摘AIM: To investigate the quality of life following lapa-roscopic Nissen fundoplication by assessing short-term and long-term outcomes. METHODS: From 1992 to 2005, 249 patients under-went laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication. Short-term outcome data including symptom response, side effects of surgery, endoscopy, and patient's perception of over-all success were collected prospectively. Long-term out-comes were investigated retrospectively in patients witha median follow-up of 10 years by assessment of reflux symptoms, side effects of surgery, durability of antire-flux surgery, need for additional treatment, patient's perception of success, and quality of life. Antireflux sur-gery was considered a failure based on the following criteria: moderate to severe heartburn or regurgitation; moderate to severe dysphagia reported in combination with heartburn or regurgitation; regular proton pump inhibitor medication use; endoscopic evidence of erosive esophagitis Savary-Miller grade 1-4; pathological 24-h pH monitoring; or necessity to undergo an additional surgery. The main outcome measures were short-and long-term cure rates and quality of life, with patient sat-isfaction as a secondary outcome measure. RESULTS: Conversion from laparoscopy to open sur-gery was necessary in 2.4% of patients. Mortality was zero and the 30-d morbidity was 7.6% (95%CI: 4.7%-11.7%). The median postoperative hospital stay was 2 d [interquartile range (IQR) 2-3 d]. Two hundred and forty-seven patients were interviewed for short-term analysis following endoscopy. Gastro-esophageal reflux disease was cured in 98.4% (95%CI: 95.9%-99.6%) of patients three months after surgery. New-onset dysphagia was encountered postoperatively in 13 patients (6.7%); 95% reported that the outcome was better after antireflux surgery than with preopera-tive medical treatment. One hundred and thirty-nine patients with a median follow-up of 10.2 years (IQR 7.2-11.6 years) were available for a long-term evalu-ation. Cumulative long-term cure rates were 87.7% (81.0%-92.2%) at 5 years and 72.9% (64.0%-79.9%) at 10 years. Gastrointestinal symptom rating scores and RAND-36 quality of life scores of patients with treatment success were similar to those of the general population but significantly lower in those with failed antireflux surgery. Of the patients available for long-term follow-up, 83% rated their operation a success. CONCLUSION: For the long-term, our results indicate decreasing effectiveness of laparoscopic antirefluxsurgery, although most of the patients seem to have an overall quality of life similar to that of the general population.
基金funded by the Artificial Intelligence Technology Project of Xi’an Science and Technology Bureau in China(No.21RGZN0014)。
文摘Accurate insight into the heat generation rate(HGR) of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs) is one of key issues for battery management systems to formulate thermal safety warning strategies in advance.For this reason,this paper proposes a novel physics-informed neural network(PINN) approach for HGR estimation of LIBs under various driving conditions.Specifically,a single particle model with thermodynamics(SPMT) is first constructed for extracting the critical physical knowledge related with battery HGR.Subsequently,the surface concentrations of positive and negative electrodes in battery SPMT model are integrated into the bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM) networks as physical information.And combined with other feature variables,a novel PINN approach to achieve HGR estimation of LIBs with higher accuracy is constituted.Additionally,some critical hyperparameters of BiLSTM used in PINN approach are determined through Bayesian optimization algorithm(BOA) and the results of BOA-based BiLSTM are compared with other traditional BiLSTM/LSTM networks.Eventually,combined with the HGR data generated from the validated virtual battery,it is proved that the proposed approach can well predict the battery HGR under the dynamic stress test(DST) and worldwide light vehicles test procedure(WLTP),the mean absolute error under DST is 0.542 kW/m^(3),and the root mean square error under WLTP is1.428 kW/m^(3)at 25℃.Lastly,the investigation results of this paper also show a new perspective in the application of the PINN approach in battery HGR estimation.
基金financially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2013CB127404)the Collaborative Innovation Action of Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural
文摘Black soil is one of the most precious soil resources on earth because it has abundant carbon stocks and a relatively high production capacity. However, decreasing organic matter after land reclamation, and the effects of long-term inputs of organic carbon have made it less fertile black soil in Northeast China. Straw return could be an effective method for improving soil organic carbon(SOC) sequestration in black soils. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether straw return effectively increases SOC sequestration. Long-term field experiments were conducted at three sites in Northeast China with varying latitudes and SOC densities. Study plots were subjected to three treatments: no fertilization(CK); inorganic fertilization(NPK); and NPK plus straw return(NPKS). The results showed that the SOC stocks resulting from NPKS treatment were 4.0 and 5.7% higher than those from NPK treatment at two sites, but straw return did not significantly affect the SOC stocks at the third site. Furthermore, at higher SOC densities, the NPKS treatment resulted in significantly higher soil carbon sequestration rates(CSR) than the NPK treatment. The equilibrium value of the CSR for the NPKS treatment equated to cultivation times of 17, 11, and 8 years at the different sites. Straw return did not significantly increase the SOC stocks in regions with low SOC densities, but did enhance the C pool in regions with high SOC densities. These results show that there is strong regional variation in the effects of straw return on the SOC stocks in black soil in Northeast China. Additional cultivations and fertilization practices should be used when straw return is considered as an approach for the long-term improvement of the soil organic carbon pool.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42192561 and 41605052the National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2020YFA0608804.
文摘Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water,which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate studies.Given its key indicator in climate signals,it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate dynamics.In this paper,we evaluated the ability of 21 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the subduction rate.In general,the simulation ability of the models to the subduction climatology is better than that to the long-term variation trend.Based on the comprehensive analysis of climatology distribution and long-term trend of the subduction rate,GISS-E2-1-G performs better in reproducing the subduction rate climatology and IPSL-CM6A-LR can simulate positive long-term trend for both the global mean subduction rate and the lateral induction term in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region.However,it is still challenging to capture both the distribution characteristics of the subduction climatology and the long-term temporal trend for the 21 CMIP6 models.In addition,the model results demonstrate that,the ACC area is the major region contributing to the long-term trend of the global mean subduction rate.The analysis in this paper indicates that the poor simulation ability of reproducing the long-term trend of global mean subduction rate might be attributed to the ocean dynamics,for example,the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer and zonal gradient of mixed layer depth.
基金the Hualien Armed Forces General Hospital Grant,No.HAFGH-D-109007.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute stress might increase short-term heart rate variability and blood pressure variability(BPV);however,chronic stress would not alter short-term BPV in animal models.AIM To examine the association of psychological stress with long-term BPV in young male humans.METHODS We prospectively examined the association of chronic psychological stress with long-term BPV in 1112 healthy military males,averaged 32.2 years from the cardiorespiratory fitness and hospitalization events in armed forces study in Taiwan.Psychological stress was quantitatively evaluated with the Brief Symptom Rating Scale(BSRS-5),from the least symptom of 0 to the most severe of 20,and the five components of anxiety,insomnia,depression,interpersonal sensitivity,and hostility(the severity score in each component from 0 to 4).Longterm BPV was assessed by standard deviation(SD)for systolic and diastolic blood pressure(SBP and DBP),and average real variability(ARV),defined as the average absolute difference between successive measurements of SBP or DBP,across four visits in the study period from 2012 to 2018(2012-14,2014-15,2015-16,and 2016-18).RESULTS The results of multivariable linear regressions showed that there were no correlations of the BSRS-5 score with SDSBP,SDDBP,ARVSBP,and ARVDBP after adjusting for all the covariates[β(SE):-0.022(0.024),-0.023(0.026),-0.001(0.018),and 0.001(0.020),respectively;P>0.05 for all].In addition,there were also no correlations between each component of the BSRS score and the long-term BPV indexes.CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that chronic psychological stress might not be associated with long-term BPV in military young male humans.
基金supported by Grant-in-Aid for Asian CORE Program "Manufacturing and Environmental Management in East Asia" of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS)
文摘When we try to estimate future environmental costs resulting from our current economic activities,we usually calculate the present value of the consequences for our future generations by utilizing a discount rate as a standard economic procedure.The popularity of this procedure is solely supported by its simplicity which assumes:(1)a perfect financial market over even 100 years,and(2)existence of a stable time preference between two consecutive periods for an individual consumer.An apparent deficiency of this approach is that the present value of life quality of future generations varies to a large extent along an arbitrarily chosen discount rate.As a matter of fact,the discount rate,which could reflect the time preference as2%or 5%,matters when we predict current strategies of environmental protection for future generations.Simply applying a discount rate to evaluate the quality of our future generation,without clarifying the actual production mechanism behind this,is almost to the same as ignoring the fact that all of the goods are produced through an actual production process and that environmental degradation reduces the efficiency of that process.The greatest concern for our future generations should not be given by an assumed discount rate,since the discount rate itself is determined by financial market conditions at certain points in time.
文摘In this study, we compared the serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and arginase-1 in long-term survival kidney transplant recipients (LTSKTRs) with those in short-term survival kidney transplant recipients (STSKTRs). We then evaluated the relationship between these levels and graft function. Blood samples were collected from 50 adult LTSKTRs and 20 STSKTRs (graft survival approximately 1-3 years post-transplantation). All patients had stable kidney function. The samples were collected at our institution during the patients' follow-up examinations between March 2017 and September 2017. The plasma levels of TGF-β1, IL- 10, and arginase- 1 were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). The levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were significantly higher in the LTSKTRs than in the STSKTRs. The time elapsed since transplantation was positively correlated with the levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 in the LTSKTRs. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with the TGF-β1 level, and the serum creatinine level was negatively correlated with the TGF-β1 level. Higher serum levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were found in LTSKTRs than in STSKTRs, and we found that TGF-β1 was positively correlated with long-term graft survival and function. Additionally, TGF-β1 and arginase-1 levels were positively correlated with the time elapsed since transplantation. On the basis of these findings, TGF-β1 and arginase- 1 may play important roles in determining long-term graft survival. Thus, we propose that TGF-β1 and arginase-1 may potentially be used as predictive markers for evaluating long-term graft survival.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant no. 81370041, 81771233, 81671655the Outstanding Clinical Discipline Project of Shanghai Pudonggrant no.PWYgy2018-04.
文摘Background:To evaluate the efficacy of stent-assisted coiling(SAC)for the treatment of carotid ophthalmic segment aneurysm segment aneurysms(OSAs)of the internal carotid artery(ICA)through detailed long-term follow-up of a large patient cohort.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed 88 consecutive patients with OSAs between January 2009 and January 2020 at our center.Angiographic results were evaluated using the modified Raymond grading system and clinical outcomes were evaluated using the mRS scale.The primary endpoints were major aneurysm recurrence and poor clinical outcomes for at least 18 months of follow-up.The patients were asked to attend clinical follow-up assessments and possibly undergo DSA or MR via telephone.Results:We enrolled 88 patients with 99 OSAs treated with coiling,of whom 76 were treated with SAC.The coiling procedures were successful in all 88 patients.Overall,complications occurred in 8 patients(9.1%).No procedure-related mortality was observed.67(76.1%)experienced immediate aneurysm occlusion at the end of the procedure.Long-term angiographic follow-up(18 months)was available in 45/88 aneurysms(51%)(average 18.7±5.2 months).Four patients continued their follow-up for 5 years after initial aneurysm treatment.After a clinical follow-up time of 28.7 months(range,12-51 months),85 patients(95.5%)achieved favorable clinical outcomes(mRS scores of 0-2).Conclusions:This study indicates that SAC treatment is a safe and effective therapeutic alternative for ruptured and unruptured OSAs.The procedural risks are low with relatively long-term effectiveness.
文摘The world economic growth in 2016,counted on the Purchasing Power Parity(PPP),was 3.1%,a drop somewhat from that of 2015,global growth rate continuing to slow down,global debts continuing to increase,international financial market becoming more fragile and international trade and investment becoming more bleak.As gap of household income and wealth widens and anti-globalization tendency is on the increase,the world economy is in face of quite
文摘Since Piketty offered a new view of capital/income ratio, numerous attempts have been made to examine the relationship between return on capital, economic growth and the capital/income ratio. This paper attempts to shed new light on this field. More precisely, following recent literatures that pay attention to dynamics of external balance sheets of countries, we examine if Piketty’s results for large countries are robust for a country that takes the world rate of return on capital as given and whose savings rate increases gradually from negative value. It is revealed that for such a country, (1) Kuznets curve is drawn and (2) capital/income ratio decreases in accordance with a rise in savings rate and return on capital.
文摘Objective To research the factors that affects the efficacy of 2 826 cases of of trigeminal neuralgia after microvascular decompression during follow-up more than 1 year. Methods The patients with trigeminal meuralgia were followed-up for 1-25 years ( mean 9. 8 years) after microvascular decompression from January 1984 to
文摘In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures.Hence,in February 2016,the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds(JGB).The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds,a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs.On the one hand,banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative.The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative.On the other hand,bank loans to corporates did not increase,due to Japanese economy’s vertical investment-saving(IS)curve.The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy.It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical.That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low.Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy.The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2%inflation target in the present low oil price era.
基金the National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science of China(Grant No.21BJY206)。
文摘The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.