The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications i...The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications is to replace the mean frequency in the formulation with the peak frequency of the wave spectrum. These two alternative forms of joint distributions are checked in three typical random sea states characterized by the initial wave steepness. In order to further explore the properties &these models, the associated marginal distributions of wave heights and wave periods are also researched with the observed statistics and some encouraging results are obtained.展开更多
Stress concentration occurs in the foundations of railway tracks where discontinuous components are located.The exacerbated stress under the expansion joints in slab tracks may trigger foundation failures such as mud ...Stress concentration occurs in the foundations of railway tracks where discontinuous components are located.The exacerbated stress under the expansion joints in slab tracks may trigger foundation failures such as mud pumping.Although the higher stress due to the discontinuities of track structures has been discussed in past studies,few focused on the stress response of roadbeds in slab tracks and quantitatively characterized the stress pattern.In this paper,we performed a dynamic finite element analysis of a track-formation system,incorporating expansion joints as primary longitudinal discontinuities.The configurations of CRTS Ⅲ slab tracks and the contact conditions between concrete layers were considered.Numerical results show that longitudinal influencing length of induced stress on roadbed under wheel load relates to the contact conditions between concrete layers,increasing nonlinearly at a larger coefficient of friction.Given a measured coefficient of friction of 0.7,the calculated longitudinal influencing length(9.0 m) matches with field data.The longitudinal influencing length is not affected with the increasing velocity.As stress concentration arises with expansion joints,the worstcase scenario emerges when double-axle loads are exerted immediately above the expansion joints between concrete bases.A stress concentration factor Cvon the roadbed is proposed;it increases with the increasing velocity,changing from 1.33 to 1.52 at velocities between 5 and 400 km/h.The stress distribution on roadbeds transforms from a trapezoid pattern at continuous sections to a triangle pattern at points with longitudinal discontinuities.An explicit expression is finally proposed for the stress pattern on roadbed under expansion joints.Although structural discontinuities induce stress raiser,the extent of concentration is mitigated with increasing depth at different velocity levels.展开更多
The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula function, and the Clayton copul...The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares (OLS) test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.展开更多
Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcom...Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.展开更多
We studied the effect of loose tenon dimensions on stress and strain distributions in T-shaped mortise and loose tenon (M&LT) furni-ture joints under uniaxial bending loads, and determined the effects of loose ...We studied the effect of loose tenon dimensions on stress and strain distributions in T-shaped mortise and loose tenon (M&LT) furni-ture joints under uniaxial bending loads, and determined the effects of loose tenon length (30, 45, 60, and 90 mm) and loose tenon thickness (6 and 8 mm) on bending moment capacity of M&LT joints constructed with polyvinyl acetate (PVAc) adhesive. Stress and strain distributions in joint elements were then estimated for each joint using ANSYS finite element (FE) software. The bending moment capacity of joints increased significantly with thickness and length of the tenon. Based on the FE analysis results, under uniaxial bending, the highest shear stress values were obtained in the middle parts of the tenon, while the highest shear elastic strain values were estimated in glue lines between the tenon sur-faces and walls of the mortise. Shear stress and shear elastic strain values in joint elements generally increased with tenon dimensions and corre-sponding bending moment capacities. There was consistency between predicted maximum shear stress values and failure modes of the joints.展开更多
The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distribute...The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distributed generation energy under normal conditions.The simulation results of the example verify the self-optimization characteristics and the effectiveness of real-time dispatching of the distribution network control technology at all levels under multiple time scales.展开更多
Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system(JTIDS).A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.Firs...Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system(JTIDS).A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.First of all,the joint posterior distribution of all the terminals' positions is represented by factor graph.Because of the nonlinearity between the positions and time-of-arrival(TOA) measurement,messages cannot be obtained in closed forms by directly using the sum-product algorithm on factor graph.To this end,the Euclidean norm is approximated by Taylor expansion.Then,all the messages on the factor graph can be derived in Gaussian forms,which enables the terminals to transmit means and covariances.Finally,the impact of major error sources on the navigation performance are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations,e.g.,range measurement noise,priors of position uncertainty and velocity noise.Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman filter and cooperative extended Kalman filter in both static and mobile scenarios of the JTIDS.展开更多
Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical ...Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.展开更多
When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.How...When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.However,it has been challenging to generate realistic open joints in traditional experimental tests and numerical simulations.This paper presents a novel solution to solve the problem.By utilizing the stochastic distribution of joints and an enhanced-fractal interpolation system(IFS)method,rough curves with any orientation can be generated.The Douglas-Peucker algorithm is then applied to simplify these curves by removing unnecessary points while preserving their fundamental shape.Subsequently,open joints are created by connecting points that move to both sides of rough curves based on the aperture distribution.Mesh modeling is performed to construct the final mesh model.Finally,the RB-DEM method is applied to transform the mesh model into a discrete element model containing geometric information about these open joints.Furthermore,this study explores the impacts of rough open joint orientation,aperture,and number on rock fracture mechanics.This method provides a realistic and effective approach for modeling and simulating these non-persisting open joints.展开更多
In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T - 1) and |X(T)|...In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T - 1) and |X(T)|(i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin) by the method of mass function of up-crossing zero points, as given by Liu and Zhao (2007). By using the same method, the recursive formula of supremum distribution is obtained. An example is included to illustrate the results of the model.展开更多
In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth ...In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.展开更多
The Effect of elastic modulus and thickness of the adhesives on the stress distribution in weldbonded joints has been studied with three-dimensional elastoplastic finite element method ( FEM). Stress distribution curv...The Effect of elastic modulus and thickness of the adhesives on the stress distribution in weldbonded joints has been studied with three-dimensional elastoplastic finite element method ( FEM). Stress distribution curves have been obtained at the edges of the spot welds and the lap zones in weldbonded joints, which were made with adhesives of different elastic modulus or different thickness. Results show that there exists larger stress concentration at the edge of the spot welds, though the shear stresses in the adhesive layers are smaller for weldbonded joints with low elastic modulus or thick adhesive layers. The stress concentration decreases and the shear stresses in adhesive layers increase with the increase of the elastic modulus or the decrease of the adhesive thickness. It is concluded that the thiner adhesive layers with higher elastic modulius are preferable in weldbonded joints to cut down the stress concentration.展开更多
The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave perio...The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave periods and the rate of change of wave surface elevation by means of calculation of the two-order to four-order moment of the frequency spectrum based on the linear wave theory. For the first time, the distribution density function of wave periods determined by peaks is provided, and the conclusion is drawn that the rate of change of wave surface elevation obeys the Rayleigh distribution.展开更多
The spatial distribution function and second moments of circular freely jointed chain are derived based on an analytical method. The circular Gauss chain, which is simple for long chains, is compared with the circular...The spatial distribution function and second moments of circular freely jointed chain are derived based on an analytical method. The circular Gauss chain, which is simple for long chains, is compared with the circular freely jointed chain, which is exact for short chains. It is shown that the Gauss chain model predicts a more compact configurational distribution than the exact freely jointed chain. The two chain models, however, become closer to each other when the chain length increases. It is found that the difference of the mean square radius of gyration calculated with these two chain models is a constant, independent of the chain length.展开更多
By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviati...By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme wave height.展开更多
In this paper,the influence of forced installation caused by a hole-location error on the 3D stress distribution and damage of a composite bolted joint is investigated.An analytical model of stress distributed on comp...In this paper,the influence of forced installation caused by a hole-location error on the 3D stress distribution and damage of a composite bolted joint is investigated.An analytical model of stress distributed on composite holes is promoted,in view of non-uniform extrusion caused by forced installation.At first,non-uniform extrusion of the hole edge caused by forced installation is analyzed.According to the contact state,expression of hole deformation is given.Then,based on Hertz theory,the maximum extrusion load is obtained with help of deformation expression.By constructing an elastic foundation beam model,3D stress distributed on a hole could be analyzed according to the extrusion load.Then,stress distribution predicted by the above analytical method is compared with that provided by FE considering composite damage.Finally,a forced installation experiment is carried out to analyze the damage distribution of the joint.Results show that a central-symmetrically distributed stress is introduced by the hole-location error.With an increment of the error,strength of composite decreases due to extrusion damage.Therefore,stress presents a concave distribution on the hole.As the hole-location error exceeding 3%,stress decreases gradually due to failure of composite.Damage of holes does not exhibit a centrosymmetric distribution.Serious damage is mainly distributed on the entrance of the hole at the lower sheet.展开更多
Wireless sensor networks(WSNs) are energyconstrained,so energy saving is one of the most important issues in typical applications.The clustered WSN topology is considered in this paper.To achieve the balance of energy...Wireless sensor networks(WSNs) are energyconstrained,so energy saving is one of the most important issues in typical applications.The clustered WSN topology is considered in this paper.To achieve the balance of energy consumption and utility of network resources,we explicitly model and factor the effect of power and rate.A novel joint optimization model is proposed with the protection for cluster head.By the mean of a choice of two appropriate sub-utility functions,the distributed iterative algorithm is obtained.The convergence of the proposed iterative algorithm is proved analytically.We consider general dual decomposition method to realize variable separation and distributed computation,which is practical in large-scale sensor networks.Numerical results show that the proposed joint optimal algorithm converges to the optimal power allocation and rate transmission,and validate the performance in terms of prolonging of network lifetime and improvement of throughput.展开更多
Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probabilit...Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.展开更多
A joint resource allocation scheme concerned with the sensor subset,power and bandwidth for range-only target tracking in multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)radar systems is proposed.By selecting an optimal subset of...A joint resource allocation scheme concerned with the sensor subset,power and bandwidth for range-only target tracking in multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)radar systems is proposed.By selecting an optimal subset of sensors with the predetermined size and implementing the power allocation and bandwidth strategies among them,this algorithm can help achieving a better performance within the same resource constraints.Firstly,the Bayesian Cramer-Rao bound(BCRB)is derived from it.Secondly,a criterion for minimizing the BCRB at the target location among all targets tracking in a certain range is derived.Thirdly,the optimization problem involved with three variable vectors is formulated,which can be simplified by deriving the relationship between the optimal power allocation vector and the bandwidth allocation vector.Then,the simplified optimization problem is solved by the cyclic minimization algorithm incorporated with the sequential parametric convex approximation(SPCA)algorithm.Finally,the validity of the proposed method is demonstrated with simulation results.展开更多
基金financially supported by the European Union(Grant No.234175)the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology(Grant No.SFRH/BD/98983/2013)
文摘The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications is to replace the mean frequency in the formulation with the peak frequency of the wave spectrum. These two alternative forms of joint distributions are checked in three typical random sea states characterized by the initial wave steepness. In order to further explore the properties &these models, the associated marginal distributions of wave heights and wave periods are also researched with the observed statistics and some encouraging results are obtained.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41901073 and 52078435)the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(No.2021YJ0001)。
文摘Stress concentration occurs in the foundations of railway tracks where discontinuous components are located.The exacerbated stress under the expansion joints in slab tracks may trigger foundation failures such as mud pumping.Although the higher stress due to the discontinuities of track structures has been discussed in past studies,few focused on the stress response of roadbeds in slab tracks and quantitatively characterized the stress pattern.In this paper,we performed a dynamic finite element analysis of a track-formation system,incorporating expansion joints as primary longitudinal discontinuities.The configurations of CRTS Ⅲ slab tracks and the contact conditions between concrete layers were considered.Numerical results show that longitudinal influencing length of induced stress on roadbed under wheel load relates to the contact conditions between concrete layers,increasing nonlinearly at a larger coefficient of friction.Given a measured coefficient of friction of 0.7,the calculated longitudinal influencing length(9.0 m) matches with field data.The longitudinal influencing length is not affected with the increasing velocity.As stress concentration arises with expansion joints,the worstcase scenario emerges when double-axle loads are exerted immediately above the expansion joints between concrete bases.A stress concentration factor Cvon the roadbed is proposed;it increases with the increasing velocity,changing from 1.33 to 1.52 at velocities between 5 and 400 km/h.The stress distribution on roadbeds transforms from a trapezoid pattern at continuous sections to a triangle pattern at points with longitudinal discontinuities.An explicit expression is finally proposed for the stress pattern on roadbed under expansion joints.Although structural discontinuities induce stress raiser,the extent of concentration is mitigated with increasing depth at different velocity levels.
基金supported by the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grant No. 51021004)the National High Technology Research and DevelopmentProgram of China (863 Program, Grants No. 2012AA112509 and 2012AA051702)
文摘The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares (OLS) test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11261025,11201412)the Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(2011FB016)the Program for Middle-aged Backbone Teacher,Yunnan University
文摘Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.
文摘We studied the effect of loose tenon dimensions on stress and strain distributions in T-shaped mortise and loose tenon (M&LT) furni-ture joints under uniaxial bending loads, and determined the effects of loose tenon length (30, 45, 60, and 90 mm) and loose tenon thickness (6 and 8 mm) on bending moment capacity of M&LT joints constructed with polyvinyl acetate (PVAc) adhesive. Stress and strain distributions in joint elements were then estimated for each joint using ANSYS finite element (FE) software. The bending moment capacity of joints increased significantly with thickness and length of the tenon. Based on the FE analysis results, under uniaxial bending, the highest shear stress values were obtained in the middle parts of the tenon, while the highest shear elastic strain values were estimated in glue lines between the tenon sur-faces and walls of the mortise. Shear stress and shear elastic strain values in joint elements generally increased with tenon dimensions and corre-sponding bending moment capacities. There was consistency between predicted maximum shear stress values and failure modes of the joints.
文摘The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distributed generation energy under normal conditions.The simulation results of the example verify the self-optimization characteristics and the effectiveness of real-time dispatching of the distribution network control technology at all levels under multiple time scales.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6120118161471037+1 种基金61571041)the Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of China(201445)
文摘Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system(JTIDS).A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.First of all,the joint posterior distribution of all the terminals' positions is represented by factor graph.Because of the nonlinearity between the positions and time-of-arrival(TOA) measurement,messages cannot be obtained in closed forms by directly using the sum-product algorithm on factor graph.To this end,the Euclidean norm is approximated by Taylor expansion.Then,all the messages on the factor graph can be derived in Gaussian forms,which enables the terminals to transmit means and covariances.Finally,the impact of major error sources on the navigation performance are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations,e.g.,range measurement noise,priors of position uncertainty and velocity noise.Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman filter and cooperative extended Kalman filter in both static and mobile scenarios of the JTIDS.
文摘Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC0407004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Nos.B200201059,2021FZZX001-14)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51709089)and 111 Project.
文摘When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.However,it has been challenging to generate realistic open joints in traditional experimental tests and numerical simulations.This paper presents a novel solution to solve the problem.By utilizing the stochastic distribution of joints and an enhanced-fractal interpolation system(IFS)method,rough curves with any orientation can be generated.The Douglas-Peucker algorithm is then applied to simplify these curves by removing unnecessary points while preserving their fundamental shape.Subsequently,open joints are created by connecting points that move to both sides of rough curves based on the aperture distribution.Mesh modeling is performed to construct the final mesh model.Finally,the RB-DEM method is applied to transform the mesh model into a discrete element model containing geometric information about these open joints.Furthermore,this study explores the impacts of rough open joint orientation,aperture,and number on rock fracture mechanics.This method provides a realistic and effective approach for modeling and simulating these non-persisting open joints.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10671176, 10771192, 70871103)
文摘In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T - 1) and |X(T)|(i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin) by the method of mass function of up-crossing zero points, as given by Liu and Zhao (2007). By using the same method, the recursive formula of supremum distribution is obtained. An example is included to illustrate the results of the model.
文摘In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.
文摘The Effect of elastic modulus and thickness of the adhesives on the stress distribution in weldbonded joints has been studied with three-dimensional elastoplastic finite element method ( FEM). Stress distribution curves have been obtained at the edges of the spot welds and the lap zones in weldbonded joints, which were made with adhesives of different elastic modulus or different thickness. Results show that there exists larger stress concentration at the edge of the spot welds, though the shear stresses in the adhesive layers are smaller for weldbonded joints with low elastic modulus or thick adhesive layers. The stress concentration decreases and the shear stresses in adhesive layers increase with the increase of the elastic modulus or the decrease of the adhesive thickness. It is concluded that the thiner adhesive layers with higher elastic modulius are preferable in weldbonded joints to cut down the stress concentration.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China.(No.49776285)
文摘The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave periods and the rate of change of wave surface elevation by means of calculation of the two-order to four-order moment of the frequency spectrum based on the linear wave theory. For the first time, the distribution density function of wave periods determined by peaks is provided, and the conclusion is drawn that the rate of change of wave surface elevation obeys the Rayleigh distribution.
文摘The spatial distribution function and second moments of circular freely jointed chain are derived based on an analytical method. The circular Gauss chain, which is simple for long chains, is compared with the circular freely jointed chain, which is exact for short chains. It is shown that the Gauss chain model predicts a more compact configurational distribution than the exact freely jointed chain. The two chain models, however, become closer to each other when the chain length increases. It is found that the difference of the mean square radius of gyration calculated with these two chain models is a constant, independent of the chain length.
文摘By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme wave height.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51975472)the Fundamental Scientific Research,China(No.JCKY2021205B110).
文摘In this paper,the influence of forced installation caused by a hole-location error on the 3D stress distribution and damage of a composite bolted joint is investigated.An analytical model of stress distributed on composite holes is promoted,in view of non-uniform extrusion caused by forced installation.At first,non-uniform extrusion of the hole edge caused by forced installation is analyzed.According to the contact state,expression of hole deformation is given.Then,based on Hertz theory,the maximum extrusion load is obtained with help of deformation expression.By constructing an elastic foundation beam model,3D stress distributed on a hole could be analyzed according to the extrusion load.Then,stress distribution predicted by the above analytical method is compared with that provided by FE considering composite damage.Finally,a forced installation experiment is carried out to analyze the damage distribution of the joint.Results show that a central-symmetrically distributed stress is introduced by the hole-location error.With an increment of the error,strength of composite decreases due to extrusion damage.Therefore,stress presents a concave distribution on the hole.As the hole-location error exceeding 3%,stress decreases gradually due to failure of composite.Damage of holes does not exhibit a centrosymmetric distribution.Serious damage is mainly distributed on the entrance of the hole at the lower sheet.
基金supported partly by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61473247,61104033,61172095)Hebei Provincial Natural Science Fund(F2012203109)
文摘Wireless sensor networks(WSNs) are energyconstrained,so energy saving is one of the most important issues in typical applications.The clustered WSN topology is considered in this paper.To achieve the balance of energy consumption and utility of network resources,we explicitly model and factor the effect of power and rate.A novel joint optimization model is proposed with the protection for cluster head.By the mean of a choice of two appropriate sub-utility functions,the distributed iterative algorithm is obtained.The convergence of the proposed iterative algorithm is proved analytically.We consider general dual decomposition method to realize variable separation and distributed computation,which is practical in large-scale sensor networks.Numerical results show that the proposed joint optimal algorithm converges to the optimal power allocation and rate transmission,and validate the performance in terms of prolonging of network lifetime and improvement of throughput.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(GK201503053)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601002)
文摘Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(615015136140146941301481)
文摘A joint resource allocation scheme concerned with the sensor subset,power and bandwidth for range-only target tracking in multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)radar systems is proposed.By selecting an optimal subset of sensors with the predetermined size and implementing the power allocation and bandwidth strategies among them,this algorithm can help achieving a better performance within the same resource constraints.Firstly,the Bayesian Cramer-Rao bound(BCRB)is derived from it.Secondly,a criterion for minimizing the BCRB at the target location among all targets tracking in a certain range is derived.Thirdly,the optimization problem involved with three variable vectors is formulated,which can be simplified by deriving the relationship between the optimal power allocation vector and the bandwidth allocation vector.Then,the simplified optimization problem is solved by the cyclic minimization algorithm incorporated with the sequential parametric convex approximation(SPCA)algorithm.Finally,the validity of the proposed method is demonstrated with simulation results.