The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and the development strategy of a low-carbon economy in Kazakhstan

Fossil energy is the material basis of human survival, economic development and social progress. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is becoming increasingly close. However, energy consumption is the major source of greenhouse gases, which can significantly affect the balance of the global ecosystem. It has become the common goal of countries worldwide to address climate change, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and implement sustainable development strategies. In this study, we applied an approximate relationship analysis, a decoupling relationship analysis, and a trend analysis to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Kazakhstan for the period of 1993-2010. The results demonstrated： （1） the total energy consumption and GDP in Kazakhstan showed a ＂U＂-type curve from 1993 to 2010. This curve was observed because 1993-1999 was a period during which Kazakhstan transitioned from a republic to an independent country and experienced a difficult transition from a planned to a market economy. Then, the economic system became more stable and the industrial production increased rapidly because of the effective financial, monetary and industrial policy support from 2000 to 2010. （2） The relationships between energy con- sumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy exports were linked; the carbon emissions were mainly derived from energy consumption, and the dependence of economic growth on energy exports gradually increased from 1993 to 2010. Before 2000, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was in a recessional decoupling state because of the economic recession. After 2000, this relationship was in strong and weak decoupling states because the international crude oil prices rose and energy exports increased greatly year by year. （3） It is forecasted that Kazakhstan cannot achieve its goal of energy consumption by 2020. Therefore, a low-carbon economy is the best strategic choice to address climate change from a global perspective in Kazakhstan. Thus, we proposed strategies including the improvement of the energy consumption structure, the development of new energy and renewable energy, the use of cleaner production technologies, the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, and the expansion of forest areas.

A review of China's energy consumption structure and outlook based on a long-range energy alternatives modeling tool

China＇s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China＇s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China＇s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives plan- ning energy modeling tool, the future of China＇s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China＇s total energy con- sumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent （Mtoe） in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA＇s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels （gas, nuclear and renewables） could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels （coal and oil） and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

Optimization of energy consumption structure based on carbon emission reduction target:A case study in Shandong Province,China

It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global warming.This paper investigates Shandong Province,a typical province of energy consumption,as the research object,aiming to optimize total energy consumption and consumption structure in the future planning year.This paper constructs a methodological system to optimize energy consumption structure in Shandong Province,using a scenario combination of system dynamics(SD)prediction and analysis based on the coupling of key scenario elements affecting different energy consumption from different perspectives.Structural equation modeling and SD sensitivity analysis indicate an overlap between key factors restricting energy consumption.Pairing the key scenario factors can better reflect the internal mechanism of energy consumption development.Based on this,21 scenarios based on different combinations of the key elements are constructed.Through SD prediction and analysis,the most suitable scenario mode for optimizing energy consumption structure in Shandong Province is selected.This paper provides a suitable development range for the average gross domestic product growth rate,the proportion of secondary industry,energy consumption intensity of secondary industry,and the urbanization rate for Shandong Province.This paper can provide a reference for similar research and the government in formulating the optimization scheme of energy consumption structure.

Study on Relation between Energy Consumption and Climate Change in China

[Objective] The research aimed to study relation between energy consumption and climate change in China. [Method] Climate change characteristics from 1951 to 2009 in China were summarized. Economic and social developments in China in recent 50 years were analyzed from production and consumption amounts of the energy, energy source composition and energy consumption of the GDP （ten-thousand yuan）. Influences of the energy consumption and economic development on climate change were discussed. [ Result] Annual average temperature of China in- creased obviously from 1951 to 2009, and regional difference was distinct. Increasing trend of the temperature in the north of 35° N was bigger than that in the south. Increasing trend of the temperature in northeast China and Inner Mongolia reached 0.04 ℃/a. The average temperature from 1981 to 2009 was higher than that from 1951 to 1980, and the biggest difference value was more than 2.0 ℃. Mutation of Chinese energy produc- tion and consumption happened in 1985, but average temperature of China had an obvious mutation in 1989, showing temperature mutation lagged behind energy production and consumption mutation. Energy consumption of the GDP （ten-thousand yuan） decreased evidently from 1978 to 1997. Beginning from 1998, the decreasing pace slowed down markedly, and there was a rebound in 2003. Chinese new energy amount was increasing year by year. Because the total energy consumption amount was also increasing, new energy proportion had been maintained about one quarter. The energy consumption increasing model with energy consumption coefficient and the model without energy consumption coefficient were set up in this paper. It was found that Chinese energy structure changed a little after considering energy consumption coefficient. Proportion of the coal de- creased, while proportions of the oil, natural gas and electric power increased. Temperature changing trend was consistent with that of the economic development and energy consumption. Change trend of the average temperature basically presented good positive correlation with effective energy consumption amount, and the maximum correlation coefficient was 80%. [ Conclusion] The research proved the importance of developing clean ＆ efficient energy and carrying out low-carbon economy to relieve climate change of China. It was urgent to carry out low-carbon economy and transform economic growth manner.

江西高水平打造低空应用场景的思考

开发应用场景、促进低空运营,是发展低空经济的前提与起点,更是带动上游低空制造业、下游低空保障与服务业的桥梁与纽带。从微观市场与宏观政策两个层次看,低空应用场景已有既定的政策指向和市场导向。江西高水平打造低空应用场景,应结合省情找准切入点,以争创低空应用试点项目为目标,瞄准商业化、规模化、标准化发展方向,沿着“生产作业—载物—载人”的发展路径,短期着力开发低空农林渔、无人机物流、低空旅游,中长期重点开发低空应急救援、城市空中交通。通过应用场景的拓展与创新,牵引低空经济全链条高质量发展。

城市商业综合体体育场景:生成逻辑、内涵特征与价值表达

采用质性研究、案例分析等方法,提出城市商业综合体营造体育场景的生成逻辑:体育场景运营者运用各类体育文化符号构建符合消费者场景需求的符号系统,通过消费者的符号解读和空间认同的生成,在社会力量、政府部门、体育社会组织等多方共同协作的基础上形塑一种体育生活方式的过程。其内涵特征体现为:由体育服务、场地设施、服务人员、配套服务和环境氛围等基本要素构成,以亲子群体和青少年群体为主要消费对象,包括健身休闲、体育培训、体育竞赛表演等主要类型,具备娱乐性、舒适性、新奇性、专业性、社交性、便利性、审美性。其具有塑造积极的消费情感、构建空间认同的基础和增强综合体整体魅力等价值表达。建议:发挥商业综合体比较优势,构筑体育消费新空间;改善体育场景消费者感知,塑造体育消费新体验;引导消费者参与场景营造,响应体育消费新需求。

粤港澳大湾区能源消费碳达峰情景预测研究

本研究结合IPCC能源消费法和夜间灯光数据反演法,估算出2005-2021年粤港澳大湾区各区市的能源消费碳排放量,并基于拓展的STIRPAT预测模型,结合情景假设法和蒙特卡罗动态模拟法,模拟分析大湾区可能的碳达峰路径,进而提出针对性政策建议。研究结果显示,大湾区2005-2021年碳排放量呈现波动上升态势,其中香港地区已于2014年实现碳达峰,澳门地区碳排放量占比较小;珠三角九市自2011年呈现下降态势,2016年后又波动增长。动态模拟发现大湾区在基准情景、低碳情景、极低碳情景、产业转型情景和全低速情景下能如期甚至提前实现2030年碳达峰目标,若采取更积极的碳减排和产业转型政策可以提前实现碳达峰。

人工智能技术在有色金属冶炼能源管理中的应用研究

节能降耗是有色冶金企业重点关注的问题,加强企业能源管控水平是实现企业节能降耗的重要途径,但由于有色冶金企业生产流程长、工序多、工艺过程复杂,有色冶金企业的能源管控难度较大,利用人工智能技术实现企业合理的能源管控是未来的发展方向。基于此,本文在研究目前有色冶金企业能耗现状和能源管控特点的基础上,分析人工智能技术在有色金属冶炼能源管理中的应用场景和关键技术,为人工智能技术与有色冶金行业的结合提供了基础。

我国打造CBD国际消费地标的基础背景、内在要求及实施路径

消费是经济发展的基础性支撑,完善消费设施、创新消费场景、培育多层级消费中心对于恢复和扩大消费至关重要。CBD国际消费地标是重要的消费场景和消费中心。本文在阐述我国CBD发展研究现状的基础上,首先从打造世界顶级商圈、建设国际消费中心城市、赋能新发展格局构建等方面分析了打造CBD国际消费地标的现实意义;其次,梳理了当前CBD国际消费地标的基础条件及其发展趋势;再次,顺应新的发展潮流和时代背景,从以绿色低碳循环为理念、以文化历史保护为魂脉、以差异多元特色为原则、以科学技术手段为支撑四个方面论述了打造CBD国际消费地标的内在要求;最后,对打造CBD国际消费地标提出对策建议:创新CBD地标打造思路、编制CBD地标建设规划、升级CBD地标消费场景和加强CBD地标运营监管。

黑龙江省能源碳排放核算及驱动因素分析

基于联合国政府间气候变化委员会的方法,核算了黑龙江省2005~2020年能源消费的碳排放,借助LMDI分解模型、STIRPAT模型深入剖析了能源碳排放与经济、人口等驱动因素的关系,并进行情景模拟,探寻黑龙江省未来发展的合理途径.根据LMDI因素分解结果,各驱动因素对能源碳排放的累计效应中经济水平效应最大;由STIRPAT模型以及情景模拟分析可得,四种情境中综合情景为最优情景.最后,根据“双碳”目标以及研究结果,对相关的调控策略给出建议.

基于LEAP模型的煤炭综合运输能耗与碳排放研究

为全面掌握大型煤炭运输企业碳排放现状及发展趋势,识别高能耗排放重点环节,基于传统LEAP方法,构建了企业层面的能源需求与环境影响发展模型,以模拟不同减排方案的减排效果。模型包含运输环节、运输内部作业、能源类型、温室气体种类4层结构,以运输工作量为推动因子,同时考虑运输企业经营范围内的辅助生产排放与电力、热力隐含排放。采用情景分析法,设置了新能源交通两网融合、新能源装备、能效提升、排放控制以及负碳生态情景共5个技术政策情景,通过与基准情景对比,对比分析不同技术政策影响下煤炭铁水联运企业的能源消费与碳减排效果。研究发现,其中4个情景可以实现2030年碳达峰,而单一技术政策情景均不能如期实现碳中和,需采取综合措施。

基于十年前后能耗调研的长沙地区既有住宅节能改造策略研究

长沙地区既有住宅节能改造存在居民改造意愿不强、节能改造效果不明显等问题。分别于2008年、2009年和2019年、2020年调研了湖南大学周边近35栋住宅的围护结构、家电情况与400余户居民终端用电量,采用K-means聚类法将总用电量、采暖、制冷、生活用电量分别进行聚类并计算界限值、平均值等参数,进而分析十年前后居民用电量变化规律,提出改善室内热环境与减少制冷能耗为该地区既有住宅节能改造的重要目标。对既有住宅用电量进行宏观情景预测,论证了既有住宅建筑围护结构节能改造的必要性,分析节能改造意愿不强的原因,结合目前改造现状提出适宜的相关策略。对同等气候区既有住宅节能改造具有一定参考价值。

考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法

当前,配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用,但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性,导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题。为此,提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法。首先结合源荷历史数据,考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性,利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集,并计及源荷互相关性,设计源荷联合场景削减方法;其次考虑源荷出力不确定性,确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率;然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型,并考虑相关约束;采用改进NSGA-II算法求解,生成配电网网架规划方案。最后,讨论帕累托前沿解之间的差异以及不同参数对规划结果的影响,为规划决策者提供备选方案。

一种考虑峰荷-电量分摊机制和风电关键场景的输-配电网协同调度策略

风电功率的不确定性问题严重制约其消纳,因此,激发输-配电网积极性并提出合理的风电协同消纳方法具有重要意义。在建立改进峰荷-电量责任模型的基础上,提出一种基于场景法的输-配电网多目标协同调度模型。首先,将传统输-配电网峰荷责任模型、电量责任模型相结合,同时计入风电消纳、需求响应的影响并引入输配电成本分摊机制,建立改进输-配电网峰荷-电量责任模型。其次,针对输-配电网集中式和分布式风电出力的不确定性问题,基于风电功率日前基础预测场景和奇、偶时刻的极限爬坡场景构建关键风电场景集,并在此基础上提出输-配电网柔性资源协同调度策略。然后,将输-配电网改进峰荷-电量责任模型和柔性资源协同调度策略相结合,建立输-配多目标协同优化模型。最后,基于典型T6D2系统进行案例仿真,采用目标级联分析法对所提模型进行求解。结果表明,所提模型有利于支撑并促进输-配电网提升风电消纳水平,而峰荷-电量责任的边际效应有助于输-配电网有序制定对应责任权重,从而实现经济效益、风电消纳和社会效益的合理均衡。

可生物降解塑料取代传统塑料--对碳排放的影响

In recent years,a great deal of attention has been focused on the environmental impact of plastics,includ-ing the carbon emissions related to plastics,which has promoted the application of biodegradable plas-tics.Countries worldwide have shown high interest in replacing traditional plastics with biodegradable plastics.However,no systematic comparison has been conducted on the carbon emissions of biodegrad-able versus traditional plastic products.This study evaluates the carbon emissions of traditional and biodegradable plastic products(BPPs)over four stages and briefly discusses environmental and economic perspectives.Four scenarios-namely,the traditional method,chemical recycling,industrial composting,and anaerobic digestion-are considered for the disposal of waste BPPs(WBPPs).The analysis takes China as a case study.The results show that the carbon emissions of 1000traditional plastic products(plastic bags,lunch boxes,cups,etc.)were52.09-150.36 carbon emissions equivalent of per kilogram(kg CO_(2)eq),with the stage of plastic production contributing 50.71%-50.77%.In comparison,1000 similar BPPs topped out at 21.06-56.86 kg CO_(2)eq,approximately 13.53%-62.19%lower than traditional plastic prod-ucts.The difference was mainly at the stages of plastic production and waste disposal,and the BPPs showed significant carbon reduction potential at the raw material acquisition stage.Waste disposal plays an important role in environmental impact,and composting and anaerobic digestion are considered to be preferable disposal methods for WBPPs.However,the high cost of biodegradable plastics is a challenge for their widespread use.This study has important reference significance for the sustainable development of the biodegradableplastics industry.

面向新能源消纳的关键储能技术研究综述

随着双碳战略目标的持续推进,风、光等可再生能源被大规模开发利用,然而可再生能源的波动性、随机性不可避免地制约着新型电力系统稳定发展。现阶段新能源消纳问题突出,首先详细介绍了新能源消纳面临的挑战:空间错配、时间错配、灵活调节能力不足及电网安全问题,而储能技术是解决新能源消纳难题的必要策略,新型电力系统下源网荷储一体化发展是大势所趋。对现阶段的关键储能技术(物理、电化学、电磁及相变储能)进行了全面汇总和对比,分别从发电侧、电网侧及用户侧入手,对储能技术的典型应用场景进行了分析。最后,对新型电力系统下储能面临的经济性和安全性挑战及未来的发展方向进行了扩展。

以场景营城助推成都都市圈消费副中心建设的眉山对策研究

眉山作为成都都市圈重要节点城市,拥有较为突出的地理区位、空间承载、生态文化优势。随着同城一体化发展的加快,眉山主动承接大都市功能疏解,借助都市圈推动优势资源向发展成果转化,打造成都都市圈消费副中心,将成为眉山提升城市发展能级的重大契机。眉山成都都市圈消费副中心打造过程中存在的困难主要有:消费能级不高,区域发展不均衡;主体培育不足,商业集聚度不足;品质场景缺乏,消费吸附力较弱等。据此,文章提出从场景营城的角度探索适用于眉山消费场景营造的对策建议,以期助力眉山打造都市圈消费副中心。

河南省能源消费碳排放分析与情景预测

通过LMDI法对2002~2021年间河南省能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行分析,运用Tapio脱钩模型判断河南国民经济增长与碳排放量之间的脱钩关系,并分情景预测了河南省2021~2035年间能源消费的碳排放量。结果显示:河南省碳排放增加的主要原因是经济规模效应,而对碳排放有显著抑制作用的是能源强度效应。2003~2021年,河南省经济发展与碳排放的关系总体呈从弱脱钩向强脱钩的转变,2020年为增长负脱钩。低碳情景在保证经济发展的同时,可以实现2030年前碳达峰,是河南省较为理想的发展模式。

基于STIRPAT模型的吉林省建筑业能耗影响因素分析与预测

为分析建筑业能源消耗影响因素,采用STIRPAT模型,基于2007—2021年吉林省建筑业相关数据,采用岭回归法进行分析。结果表明:城市化率、建筑业总产值、产业结构和能源强度均对吉林省建筑业能耗有显著影响,且每变化1%,能源消耗量的变化为1.785%、0.721%、-0.879%和0.965%。经对吉林省建筑业能耗量预测发现:当城市化率低速增长、能源强度高速下降及第二产业占比低速下降时,吉林省建筑业能耗量增长速度最慢,并据此提出相应的节能对策。

基于城市信息模型(CIM)的未来城市场景迭代——以数字产城CIM平台为例

城市信息模型(City Information Modeling,CIM)的兴起和广泛应用为城市高质量发展和智慧城市建设提供了重要支撑。本文面向智慧城市规建管需求,构建基于CIM的集“规划—投资—设计—建设—管理—运营—双碳—元宇宙”八大功能于一体的产城管理平台,实现线下物理城市与线上数字城市的深度融合,助力产城科学规划、高效建设和优质运营。在此基础上解析CIM平台的自我学习过程,提出数据迭代-模型迭代-服务迭代的多层次未来城市场景迭代框架,并分析其场景应用与反馈机制,助力产城全场景穿透,提高政府管理软实力。