A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.

Evaluation of Transboundary Water Resource Development in Mekong River Basin: The Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Context of Water Cooperation

Mekong River is one of the major international freshwater sources in the world. The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) comprised of four downstream countries, including Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The utilization of the basin’s water brings not only substantial benefits to the region ranging from hydropower to navigation, but also negative impacts caused by the unbalanced water using. The essential role of Mekong River requires all member nations to cooperate effectively for the sustainable development of the region. One of the most popular methods in the field of water resource management is a trustable tool called the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP is much appropriate for water resource policymaking. The literature, however, points out that there is no study to both structure the water using hierarchy and employ quantitative (objective) criteria to the AHP model in LMB case. With regard to water resource management, there are no previous studies applying AHP models to evaluating sustainable development of transboundary water resource in LMB case. This paper explores the evolution of water cooperation among Mekong countries and subsequently evaluates the water development scenarios in the LMB based on the water cooperation preferences of four LMB countries This study proposes a novel approach to analyzing, assessing water resource development scenarios characterized by sustainability indicators and to assisting in developing a suitable water policy in LMB according to the best cooperation scenario.

Using Artificial Neural Network to Estimate Sediment Load in Ungauged Catchments of the Tonle Sap River Basin, Cambodia

Concern on alteration of sediment natural flow caused by developments of water resources system, has been addressed in many river basins around the world especially in developing and remote regions where sediment data are poorly gauged or ungauged. Since suspended sediment load (SSL) is predominant, the objectives of this research are to: 1) simulate monthly average SSL (SSLm) of four catchments using artificial neural network (ANN);2) assess the application of the calibrated ANN (Cal-ANN) models in three ungauged catchment representatives (UCR) before using them to predict SSLm of three actual ungauged catchments (AUC) in the Tonle Sap River Basin;and 3) estimate annual SSL (SSLA) of each AUC for the case of with and without dam-reservoirs. The model performance for total load (SSLT) prediction was also investigated because it is important for dam-reservoir management. For model simulation, ANN yielded very satisfactory results with determination coefficient (R2) ranging from 0.81 to 0.94 in calibration stage and 0.63 to 0.87 in validation stage. The Cal-ANN models also performed well in UCRs with R2 ranging from 0.59 to 0.64. From the result of this study, one can estimate SSLm and SSLT of ungauged catchments with an accuracy of 0.61 in term of R2 and 34.06% in term of absolute percentage bias, respectively. SSLA of the AUCs was found between 159,281 and 723,580 t/year. In combination with Brune’s method, the impact of dam-reservoirs could reduce SSLA between 47% and 68%. This result is key information for sustainable development of such infrastructures.

澜沧江下游/湄公河上游片断热带雨林物种多样性动态(英文)

在澜沧江下游/湄公河上游的滇南西双版纳地区,通过样方法比较了热带雨林的连片与 3个小片断的物种多样性变化趋势。与连续森林比较,片断热带雨林的植物物种丰富度和物种多样性指数都比较低,而且有相当低比例的大高位芽、中高位芽和附生等生活型植物,而藤本、小高位芽和矮高位芽等生活型植物的比例则较高;泛热带、热带亚洲至热带非洲的区系成分比例较高,而当地成分则减少;群落的上层树木比下层树木更加稳定。同样,动物的物种多样性指数和均衡度在片断热带雨林中都较低,与其密切相关的是片断热带雨林的环境质量,而不是片断的大小。此外,也探讨了片断热带雨林物种变化与森林小气候的关系,阐明了由凉湿向干暖转化的 林内效应"是其物种变化的重要原因之一。

Changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Mekong River over the period 1965-2003

Changes in the sediment load of a river can have important impacts on river channel evolution,nutrient fluxes,aquatic ecology and delta erosion and sedimentation,and the possibility of changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Mekong River has attracted increasing concern in recent years.Existing studies present conflicting findings regarding the nature and magnitude of recent changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Meking River and the authors have attempted to assemble the most reliable data on annual sediment loads for the period 1965-2003,to assess recent trends in the sediment load of the river.The changes in annual sediment load at 7 stations on the river are analyzed.Important sediment contributing areas are found in the reaches between Gajiu and Yunjinghong,Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang and downstream of Nong Khai.The sediment load increased at Gajiu,Yunjinghong and Chiang Saen over the period 1985-1992 because of serious soil erosion caused by the expansion of cultivation,the replacement of natural forest by plantations and land disturbance associated with hydropower dam construction.A marked reduction in sediment load occurred at Gajiu after the impoundment of the Manwan Hydropower dam on the Lancang River,but this reduction was not evident downstream at Yunjinghong and the stations further downstream.Significant increases in sediment load appeared at Mukdahan and Khong Chiam.These contrasting patterns of change reflect the influence of sediment contributions from the intervening catchment areas and channel systems as well as storage and remobilization of sediment from the channel system and the impact of hydraulic works such as irrigation systems.The long term mean annual sediment load of the Mekong River at its mouth is estimated to be ca.145×106ta-1,which is lower than previously reported values and it seems likely that this will be reduced in the foreseeable future.

湄公河下游生态水文情势变化研究

由于人类活动加剧,湄公河下游河段生态水文情势发生改变。为定量评价湄公河下游生态水文情势的变化程度,基于湄公河下游桔井水文站(1961~2020年)逐日水文数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验和滑动t检验法进行年均流量趋势特征分析,并应用RVA法综合评价了湄公河下游生态水文情势变化及其生态影响。结果表明:①桔井站年均流量总体呈现先下降后上升趋势,突变年份出现在1996年,表明1996年以来人类活动对湄公河下游水文影响加剧;②湄公河下游桔井站的整体水文改变度为57.99%,属于中度改变,其中旱季水文指标受影响最高;③人类活动的干预增加了湄公河下游的旱季流量,对丰水期流量影响较小,需要增加对水生态的监测,防止水文情势变化对生态产生不利影响。研究成果可为探究湄公河下游水文情势变化提供理论支撑。

下湄公河国家地表水质量标准比较研究

本文总结了下湄公河国家老挝、泰国、柬埔寨、越南等国的地表水质量标准构成,比较了下湄公河各国地表水质量标准中参数指标的差异,从水质指标参数项目和限值两方面分析了湄公河各国水质标准的严格程度,从而得出对我国跨界水管理的政策启示。