地震亚失稳过程中前兆异常演化的综合解释——以2014年鲁甸6.5级地震为例

文中以2014年鲁甸6.5级地震为例,在亚失稳实验及理论指导下,基于震前地震活动及地球物理观测资料并结合地震成核数值模拟结果,综合分析前兆异常时空演化与亚失稳过程的关系,首次提供了一个可明确佐证亚失稳阶段震源区成核、震源区附近协同化过程持续加剧的典型震例和观测事实。研究结果显示,依据大区域强震活动及流动重力观测,可判定鲁甸地震前研究区已处于高应力状态。在高应力背景判定的基础上,依据地震活动及地球物理观测前兆异常,可粗略判定鲁甸地震亚失稳过程可能起始于震前7、8个月,最突出的现象或判定指标是由震中附近小地震活跃所表征的断层应力状态由积累为主向释放为主的转变,以及由定点地球物理观测异常数量显著增加所表征的断层运动协同化现象,从地震成核的角度与成核后期核心弱化区扩张过程有关。之后至主震发生,还有2个时间节点需要关注:一是震前4、5个月,定点地球物理观测异常空间分布范围自震中附近向外围的明显扩展,显示断层变形的加速协同化;二是震前2个月之后,震中附近小地震活动开始减弱、微震活动及定点地球物理异常出现向震中的迁移收缩,与地震成核过程核心弱化区扩展之后的收缩过程相关联。

Field investigation on severely damaged aseismic buildings in 2014 Ludian earthquake

The 2014 magnitude 6.5 Ludian earthquake caused a death toll of 617, many landslides and tens of thousands of collapsed buildings. A field investigation to evaluate the damage to buildings was carried out immediately after the occurrence of the earthquake. Severely damaged aseismic buildings, which were basically observed in the downtown of Longtoushan Town, were carefully examined one by one with the aim to improve design codes. This paper summarizes the damage observed to the investigated aseismic buildings in both the structural and local levels. A common failure mode was observed that most of the aseismic buildings, such as RC frame structures and confined masonry structures, were similarly destroyed by severe damage or complete collapse of the first story. The related strong ground motion, which was recorded at the nearby station, had a short duration of less than 20 s but a very large PGA up to 1.0 g. The RC frames based on the new design codes still failed to achieve the design target for ＂strong column, weak beam＂. Typical local failure details, which were related to the interaction between RC columns and infill walls and between constructional columns and masonry walls, are summarized with preliminary analyses.

Seismic damage to structures in the Ms6.5 Ludian earthquake

On 3 August 2014, the Ludian earthquake struck northwest Yunnan Province with a surface wave magnitude of 6.5. This moderate earthquake unexpectedly caused high fatalities and great economic loss. Four strong motion stations were located in the areas with intensity V, VI, VII and IX, near the epicentre. The characteristics of the ground motion are discussed herein, including 1） ground motion was strong at a period of less than 1.4 s, which covered the natural vibration period of a large number of structures; and 2） the release energy was concentrated geographically. Based on materials collected during emergency building inspections, the damage patterns of adobe, masonry, timber frame and reinforced concrete （RC） frame structures in areas with different intensities are summarised. Earthquake damage matrices of local buildings are also given for fragility evaluation and earthquake damage prediction. It is found that the collapse ratios of RC frame and confined masonry structures based on the new design code are significantly lower than non-seismic buildings. However, the RC frame structures still failed to achieve the ＇strong column, weak beam＇ design target. Traditional timber frame structures with a light infill wall showed good aseismic performance.

Characteristics of strong motions and damage implications of M_s6.5 Ludian earthquake on August 3,2014

The Ludian County of Yunnan Province in southwestern China was struck by an Ms6.5 earthquake on August 3, 2014, which was another destructive event following the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake in 2010, and Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake in 2013. National Strong-Motion Observation Network System of China collected 74 strong motion recordings, which the maximum peak ground acceleration recorded by the 053LLT station in Longtoushan Town was 949 cm/s2 in E-W component. The observed PGAs and spectral ordinates were compared with ground-motion prediction equation in China and the NGA-West2 developed by Pacific Earthquake Engineering Researcher Center. This earthquake is considered as the first case for testing applicability of NGA-West2 in China. Results indicate that the observed PGAs and the 5 % damped pseudo-response spectral accelerations are significantly lower than the pre- dicted ones. The field survey around some typical strong motion stations verified that the earthquake damage was consistent with the official isoseismal by China Earthquake Administration.

Temporal variation of gravity field prior to the Ludian Ms6.5 and Kangding Ms6.3 earthquakes

Using mobile gravity data from the central area of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, the relationship between gravity variation and earthquakes was studied based on the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake that occurred on August 3rd, 2014, and the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake that occurred on November 22 nd, 2014; the mechanism of gravity variation was also explored. The results are as follows：（1） Prior to both earthquakes, gravity variation exhibited similar characteristics as those observed before both the Tangshan and Wenchuan earthquakes, in which typical precursor anomalies were positive gravity variation near the epicenter and the occurrence of a high-gravity-gradient zone across the epicenter prior to the earthquake.（2） A relatively accurate prediction of the occurrence locations of the two earthquakes was made by the Gravity Network Center of China（GNCC） based on these precursor anomalies. In the gravity study report on the 2014 earthquake trends submitted at the end of 2013, the Daofu-Shimian section at the junction of the Xianshuihe and Longmenshan fault zones was noted as an earthquake-risk region with a predicted magnitude of 6.5, which covered the epicenter of the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake. In another report on earthquake trends in southwestern China submitted in mid-2014, the Lianfeng, Zhaotong fault zone was also classified as an earthquake-risk region with a magnitude of 6.0, and the central area of this region basically overlapped with the epicenter of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake.（3） The gravity variation characteristics are reasonably consistent with crustal movements, and deep material migration is likely the primary cause of gravity variation.

Comparison of strong-motion records and damage implications between the 2014 Yunnan M_S6.5 Ludian earthquake and M_S6.6 Jinggu earthquake

Serial destructive earthquakes have caused heavy casualties and economic losses to the city in southwestern of China. The Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake and the Jinggu Ms 6.6 earthquake occurred in Yunnan province in 2014. There is a question of why the two events with almost the same level of magnitude caused differences in earthquake damage. To understand the uniqueness of the phenomenon, this paper focuses on the characteristics of the ground motions and post-earthquake field investigation for the two events. Firstly, we present an overview of the residuals between the Ludian earthquake and the Jinggu earthquake based on the YW06 Ground Motion Prediction Equation （GMPE）, and explain the unusual destructiveness of the strong ground motion. Then we analyze the ground motion recordings at selected typical station, based on the strong motion parameters： equivalent predominant frequency and Arias intensity. The result exhibits a good agreement with the Chinese seismic intensity scale. This study would be helpful to gain a better knowledge of the characteristics and variability of ground motions for Ms6 class earthquakes in China and to understand the implications to future earthquakes with similar focal mechanism and local condition.

Velocity structure building and ground motion simulation of the 2014 Ludian Ms 6.5 Earthquake

This study constructs a 3 D velocity structure model of the Ludian region in the Yunnan province, southwestern China, and simulates ground motion propagation of the 2014 Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake. It aims to construct the local velocity structure of the Ludian region in three dimensions and with high precision. The simulation, using the spectral element method, is validated by field data from the Ludian earthquake records. Thus, it demonstrates that the adopted key parameters, such as the seismic source mechanism, propagation medium and geographical features of the engineering site, are appropriated for the simulation. Meanwhile, the simulation generates the ground motion distribution of the study region with an earthquakeinduced landslide in Ludian earthquake.

Ground-motion simulation for the MW6.1 Ludian earthquake on 3 August 2014 using the stochastic finite-fault method

The stochastic finite-fault simulation method was applied to synthesize the horizontal ground acceleration seismograms produced by the MW6.1 Ludian earthquake on August 3,2014.For this purpose,we produced first a total of 200 kinematic source models for the Ludian event,which are characterized by the heterogeneous slip on the conjugated ruptured fault and the slip-dependent spreading of the rupture front.The results indicated that the heterogeneous slip and the spatial extent of the ruptured fault play dominant roles in the spatial distribution of ground motions in the near-fault area.The peak ground accelerations(PGAs)and 5%-damped pseudospectral accelerations(PSAs)at periods shorter than 0.5 s estimated on the resulting synthetics generally match well with the observations at stations with Joyner-Boore distances(RJB)greater than 20 km.The synthetic PGVs and PSAs at periods of 0.5 s and 0.75 s are in good agreement with predicted medians by the Yu14 model(Yu et al.,2014).However,the synthetic results are generally much lower than the predicted medians by BSSA14 model(Boore et al.,2014).Moreover,the ground motion variability caused by the randomness in the source rupture process was evaluated by these synthetics.The standard deviations of PSAs on the base-10 logarithmic scale,Sigma[log10(PSA)],are closely dependent on either the spectral period or the RJB.The Sigma[log10(PSA)]remains a constant approximately 0.55 at periods shorter than 0.1 s,and then increase continuously up to^0.13 as the period increases from 0.1 to 2.0 s.The Sigma[log10(PSA)]values at periods of 0.1‒2.0 s show the downward tendency as the RJB values increase.However,the Sigma[log10(PSA)]​values at periods shorter than 0.1 s decrease as the RJB values increase up to^50 km,and then increase with the increasing RJB.Furthermore,we found that the ground-motion variability shows the significant dependence on the azimuth.

Complex Seismic Focus Structure and Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Distribution:Analysis of the 2014 Ludian M_w6.1 Earthquake in Yunnan

Objective The 2014 Ludian Mw6.1 earthquake in Yunnan occurred in a mountainous area with complex tectonics and topography, which caused serious damage as well as co-seismic landslides of an unusual large scale. Because the suspected seismogenic faults on the surface, distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism solutions are not consistent, it remains difficult to determine what is the real causal fault or seismogenic structure for this event. Actually, it may imply the complicity of the seismic source at depth. In addition, the distribution of the co- seismic landslides also exhibits some diffusion that is different from general eases, likely associated with the seismic focus structure.

Ms 6.5 Earthquake Occurred in Ludian County of Yunnan Province,China,Although Forecast Issued before the Earthquake,Life Casualties and Property Losses were Still Caused Significant

1 Geography Location At 16：30 on August 3rd, 2014, Ludian County, Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province （27.1°N, 103.3°E） was hit by Ms 6.5 earthquake, with the maximum intensity is 9 and epicenter depth is around 12 km （Figs. 1 and 2）.

Spatial Correlation Anomalies of the Diurnal Variation of the Geomagnetic Vertical Component before the Yingjiang MS 6.1 and Ludian MS 6.5 Earthquakes

Significant anomalies were observed at the geomagnetic stations in the southwest region of China before the Yingjiang M_S6. 1 earthquake and the Ludian M_S6. 5 earthquake in 2014.We processed the geomagnetic vertical component diurnal variation data by the spatial correlation method. The results show that during the period from April 1 to May 20,2014,there existed quasi-synchronous decrease changes in the coefficient curves between the five geomagnetic stations of Guiyang,Hechi,Nanshan,Muli,Yongning and Xinyi and Hongshan stations. Furthermore,there was a high gradient zone in the normalized correlation coefficient contour map with background values removed. The epicenters of the Yingjiang M_S6. 1 earthquake and the Ludian M_S6. 5 earthquake are located in the gradient zone or near the gradient zone.

The Change in Outgoing Long-wave Radiation before the Ludian Ms6.5 Earthquake Based on Tidal Force Niche Cycles

The cycle process of the tidal force niche for the Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake occurring in Ludian County, Yunnan Province, China on August 3, 2014 was calculated. The earthquake occurred near the middle point phase. It indicates that the type of seismogenic fault that the tide force acted on belongs to the thrust fault. According to the tidal niche cycle,the abnormal OLR( Outgoing Long-wave Radiation) change was analyzed based on NOAA satellite data around the whole land area of China before and after the earthquake.The result shows that the OLR changed evidently with tide force change. Temporally,the change went through the evolution process of initial OLR rise → strengthening → abnormal peaking → attenuation → returning to normal; and spatially,the abnormal area wound its way along the Zhaotong-Ludian fault and went through a scattered → conversion →scattered process. This process is similar to the change process of rock breaking under stress loading. The results indicate that the tidal force of a celestial body could trigger an earthquake when the tectonic stress reaches its critical breaking point and the OLR anomaly is proportional to the seismic tectonic stress change. It is of great use to combine OLR and tidal force in earthquake precursory observation.

Enhancement of Seismicity Recorded by the Qiaojia Array before the 2013 Lushan and 2014 Ludian Earthquakes

A seismic array of twenty four seismometers(Qiaojia array) operated by the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration was situated along the Zemuhe fault and the north end of Xiaojiang fault,which is a part of the east boundary of the Chuan-Dian( Sichuan-Yunnan) rhombus crustal mass. The Qiaojia array started operation at the end of February,2012. Since then the April 20,2013 Lushan MS7. 0 earthquake and the August 3,2014 Ludian MS6. 5 earthquake have occurred in the vicinity of the Qiaojia array. The earthquake catalogue recorded by the Qiaojia array since March,2012 is used in this study. The temporal variation of the earthquake count before the Lushan event and the Ludian event is analyzed. The results are as follows:(1) A very clear gradually increasing variation of the count of M ≥ 2. 0 earthquakes within the region,where all earthquakes recorded by the Qiaojia array coverage can be found before the Lushan event and the Ludian event,and the increasing range and duration of the count before the Ludian event are both larger than those before the Lushan event.(2) In the region covered by the Qiaojia array,for earthquakes with depth h ≤10 km a rising process of the count was manifested before both events,along with a nearly same duration of about five and a half months,and for earthquakes with depths h > 10 km a rising-dropping process of the count was manifest before the Lushan event,before which the rising-dropping process appeared again. The variation of the count for earthquakes with depth h ≤ 10 km is the reverse of that for earthquakes with depth h > 10 km.(3) Within and near the region covered by the Qiaojia array,the variation of the count manifests a rising process for earthquakes with depth h ≤ 10 km or h > 10 km before the Lushan event and only for earthquakes with depth h ≤ 10 km before the Ludian event. The variation of the count manifests a weakening process for earthquakes with depth h > 10 km before the Lushan event. It is shown from the above results that the seismicity within and near the regioncovered by the Qiaojia array showed a steeply rising change before both the Lushan event and the Ludian event. This phenomenon could be revelatory to understanding the process of seismicity development.

Comparative Study of Changes in Stress-drop of the Jinggu MS6.6 and Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake Sequences

The earthquake stress-drop values of two sequences were accurately calculated after taking away the effects due to regional earthquake anelastic attenuation and station site response,using waveform data and seismic phase data of sequences of the Jinggu M_S6. 6,and Ludian M_S6. 5 earthquakes in Yunnan. These results show that the stress drop with magnitude increases within the scope of this study of magnitude. After eliminating the influence of the magnitude,the average value of stress-drop in the Jinggu sequence is higher than that of the Ludian sequence at the same magnitude range. This may be related to the stress state in different regions. In terms of the changes of time and space of stress-drop,before M_S5. 8 strong aftershock,the stress-drop is "slowing down-turning up-keeping a high value"after the mainshock,meanwhile,almost all of the abnormally high stress drop value is distributed around the M_S5. 8 strong aftershock, showing that the stress environment in the region was increasing after the mainshock. And after the M_S5. 9 strong aftershock,stress-drop rapidly declines to a relatively stable state,meanwhile,the high value of stress-drop is distributed around the strong aftershock,showing that the regional tectonic stress gets more fully release,its stress environment begins to rapidly decrease.For the Ludian sequence without a strong aftershock occurring,the average value of stress drop is lower than that of the Jinggu earthquake sequence at the same magnitude range,while at the same time,the stress-drop of the aftershock sequence almost hasn't changed much. In the time after the mainshock,combined with the release characteristics of the main energy,the stress in the region is excessively released,the subsequent stress in the region gradually returns to normal. This may be the reason why the activity of Ludianaftershocks significantly was weaker and subsequently there were no strong aftershocks occurred.

滇东北地区三维电性构造研究

滇东北地区位处不同构造分区的交界地带,发育有多样的断裂构造,其中昭通—鲁甸断裂和小江断裂带的部分区段均具备积累高应力的条件,具有较强的孕震潜力.本文基于覆盖巧家、东川、鲁甸等地区采集的区域大地电磁阵列观测数据,通过大地电磁三维反演,获得了该地区的三维电性结构的水平和垂直切片,完整地揭示了滇东北地区的深部电性结构特征.反演结果表明,昭通—鲁甸断裂在10 km深度以内发育有多个局部高阻区,小江断裂带的巧家—东川段的东侧、东西两支交汇处在上地壳均表现为高阻,这些区域均展示出更强的孕震能力.根据低阻异常的分布,推测昭通—鲁甸断裂和小江断裂下方的低阻构造在中下地壳的多个位置发生连通.本文将研究区的地表热流、岩石圈有效弹性厚度、地震与电性结构结合分析,推测在滇东北深部低阻层可能存在下地壳流,并且下地壳流的塑性流动为鲁甸的地震活动提供了深部动力来源.

2014年8月3日云南鲁甸M_(s)6.5地震触发滑坡遥感解译研究

不同地貌环境下的同震触发滑坡类型会有巨大差异,确认同震滑坡类型对认识致灾特征有重要意义。本文以2014年8月3日云南鲁甸M_(S)6.5地震触发滑坡为例,利用多时相高分辨率卫星、航空遥感数据,结合遥感解译及野外调查方法,分析这次中强地震触发滑坡的主体类型。研究结果表明,①本次地震触发滑坡数量6209处,总解译面积9.72km^(2),其中10处面积大于70000m^(2)的滑坡造成震中区主要的堰塞湖堵江、生命线中断等严重灾情;②同震滑坡主体为基岩崩塌,物源区较小、流通区狭长,堆积区沿坡脚倒石堆,具有同震滑坡解译面积大而体积小的特征;③本次鲁甸M_(S)6.5地震触发滑坡具有中国西部高山峡谷地貌背景下的以基岩崩塌为主的特征。以上认识对该地区地震滑坡的定量研究有一定借鉴意义。

基于Newmark模型的地震滑坡承灾体风险评估——以2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震为例

以云南省昭通市为研究区,利用区域地质和地形数据,基于Newmark位移模型开展斜坡临界加速度计算与地震滑坡危险性分析;基于滑坡滑动距离统计模型,建立简化的地震滑坡影响范围预测方法;利用2014年鲁甸6.5级地震地震动峰值加速度模拟数据,引入建筑物、人口和道路数据,尝试开展地震滑坡承灾体风险评估。结果表明:昭通市地震滑坡高易发区主要分布在河流两岸陡坡地区和软弱岩层集中分布区域,受坡度和岩性因素控制明显;鲁甸地震因地质灾害死亡人口均分布在地震滑坡威胁建筑物和人口较多的乡镇;地震滑坡道路致灾高风险路段与实际受灾严重路段重合度较高;评估结果能在区域尺度反映承灾体的风险分布情况。

云南莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带面积—高程积分的构造地貌研究

笔者等基于ASTER GDEM数据,提取莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带集水区,计算该区亚流域盆地的面积—高程积分值,并结合野外剖面特征、历史地震、断裂构造特征及活动特征等,初步探讨了莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带的构造地貌特征及其动力学机制。得到以下几点认识:①研究区除鲁甸盆地外,大部分地区的地貌发育阶段为壮年期;②研究区面积—高程积分值(HI)主要受控于构造活动,岩性的抗侵蚀性和水系侵蚀发挥局部或次要作用;③面积—高程积分值(HI)对研究区不同构造抬升强度地区的响应方式不同:构造强烈抬升区,HI值反映了集水流域受到强烈的构造抬升和侵蚀的共同作用;构造抬升减弱区,HI值反映了缓慢的构造隆升和沉积作用的共同结果。

震源机制对地震辐射能量估计的影响

利用国家地震台网和全球地震台网的宽频带远震P波波形数据,通过测定2014—2019年间国内M_(W)≥6.0和国外M_(W)≥6.5共105次浅源地震的辐射能量和能量震级,研究了震源机制解对辐射能量估计的影响。结果表明:①震源机制不同导致地震能量辐射差异较大,其中走滑型地震对辐射能量的影响最大,对能量震级的平均影响因子为0.34,正断型地震对能量震级的平均影响因子为0.08,逆断型地震对能量震级的影响最小,平均影响因子为0.05;②不同震源机制类型地震的差震级ΔM也不同,走滑型地震的ΔM为0.31,正断型地震的ΔM为0.21,逆断型地震的ΔM为0.08,这表明走滑型地震辐射能量的效率较高,正断型次之,逆断型最低;③根据鲁甸地震的测定结果分析可知,当能矩比与慢度参数均远高于全球平均水平时,即使该地震震级较小,也存在造成严重破坏的概率;④能量震级Me和矩震级M_(W)分别反映了震源的动态和静态属性,二者的联合测定对地震灾害合理评估和地震应急具有重要意义。

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning using the physics-environmental coupled Model

In order to prevent and mitigate disasters,it is crucial to immediately and properly assess the spatial distribution of landslide hazards in the earthquake-affected area.Currently,there are primarily two categories of assessment techniques:the physical mechanism-based method(PMBM),which considers the landslide dynamics and has the advantages of effectiveness and proactivity;the environmental factor-based method(EFBM),which integrates the environmental conditions and has high accuracy.In order to obtain the spatial distribution of landslide hazards in the affected area with near realtime and high accuracy,this study proposed to combine the PMBM based on Newmark method with EFBM to form Newmark-Information value model(N-IV),Newmark-Logic regression model(N-LR)and Newmark-Support Vector Machine model(N-SVM)for seismic landslide hazard assessment on the Ludian Mw 6.2 earthquake in Yunnan.The predicted spatial hazard distribution was compared with the actual cataloged landslide inventory,and frequency ratio(FR),and area under the curve(AUC)metrics were used to verify the model's plausibility,performance,and accuracy.According to the findings,the model's accuracy is ranked as follows:N-SVM>N-LR>N-IV>Newmark.With an AUC value of 0.937,the linked N-SVM was discovered to have the best performance.The research results indicate that the physics-environmental coupled model(PECM)exhibits accuracy gains of 46.406%(N-SVM),30.625%(N-LR),and 22.816%(N-IV)when compared to the conventional Newmark technique.It shows varied degrees of improvement from 2.577%to 12.446%when compared to the single EFBM.The study also uses the Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake to evaluate the model,showcasing its trustworthy in forecasting power and steady generalization.Since the suggested PECM in this study can adapt to complicated earthquake-induced landslides situations,it aims to serve as a reference for future research in a similar field,as well as to help with emergency planning and response in earthquakeprone regions with landslides.