Detection and attribution of abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years

Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics in Zhumadian in Recent 50 Years

By means of linear function and Mann-Kendall test method,the climate change characteristics of temperature and precipitation from Zhumadian meteorological station in recent 50 years were analyzed.The results revealed that annual mean temperature and extreme temperature showed increase trend,especially minimum temperature,and there was a slight increase in annual precipitation.Temperature increase was more obvious in spring than that in autumn and winter,while there was a decrease of temperature in summer.Meanwhile,precipitation went down in spring and autumn,particular in autumn,while the increase of summer precipitation was most obvious.Mann-Kendall test showed that temperature in Zhumadian had obvious increase trend in recent 50 years,while there was abrupt change in temperature in the late 1990s and fluctuation change in annual precipitation.

Runoff variation and its response to climate change in Huolin River catchment,Northeast China

The Huolin River catchment(HRC)is located in the semi-arid region of Northeast China,which is very sensitive to climate change.The runoff in HRC is closely related to the recovery of local vegetation in the Greater Khingan Mountains and the survival of downstream wetlands.Dramatic runoff fluctuations and increasing no-flow days confirmed the water crisis in this area.Hence,it is extremely urgent to study the current situation and characteristics of runoff.In this study,hydrological and meteorological data of HRC during 1956-2018 were analyzed to elucidate the processes,characteristics,trends of the river runoff and revealed its response to climate change.The Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method showed that runoff in the HRC demonstrated a downward trend over the study period with a marked annual variation.The runoff in the high flow years was 100 times that of the low flow years,showing a typical continental climatic river characteristic.There are two runoff peak flows in the intra-annual runoff distribution in March and July,whereas two runoff valleys occurred around May and September to February.The runoff positively correlates with precipitation in summer and temperature in early spring.Snowmelt influenced by rising temperatures in April and precipitation in July is the main driving factor for the two peaks flow.Evaporation rose with precipitation decline and temperature increased,which may influence the runoff decrease.The annual runoff is well synchronized with the annual precipitation,and precipitation change is the main driving factor of variation and abrupt change points of annual runoff in the catchment.This study would be beneficial for water resource management in developing adaptation strategies to offset the negative impact of climate change in HRC.

LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY OF INTERANNUAL CHANGE PATTERNS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DURING THE RECENT 100 YEARS

The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the course of 100 years. The results show that the first mode of TEEOF takes up more than 50% in the total variance, with each of the first mode in the interannual oscillations generally standing for annually varying patterns which are related with climate and reflecting long-term tendency of change in air temperature. It is particularly true for the first mode on the 10-year scale, which shows an obvious ascending trend concerning the temperature in winter and consistently the primary component of time goes in a way that is very close to the sequence of actual temperature. Apart from the first mode of all time sections of TEEOF for the globe and the two hemispheres and the second mode of the 1-year TEEOF, interannual variation described by other characteristic vectors are showing various patterns, with corresponding primary components having relation with long-term variability of specific interannual quasi-periodic oscillation structures. A 2T test applied to the annual variation pattern shows that the abrupt changes for the Southern Hemisphere and the globe come closer to the result of a uni-element t test for mean temperature than those for the Northern Hemisphere do. It indicates that the 2Ttest, when carried out with patterns of multiple variables, seems more reasonable than the t test with single elements.

Analysis of Changing Characteristics and Trends of Temperature and Precipitation in Yanshi City in Recent 50 Years

Based on meteorological observation data of temperature and precipitation in Yanshi City from 1961 to 2010, annual and interdecadal variations of annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, annual average minimum temperature, and annual average pre- cipitation in Yanshi City in recent 50 years were analyzed, and then M-K test of changing trend of annual average temperature was conducted. The results showed that from 1961 to 2010, annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature and annual average minimum tempera- ture showed a significantly increasing trend in Yanshi City, rising by 0.30, 0.20 and 0.50 ~（3/10 a respectively. Annual average temperature was the lowest in the 1970s and the highest in 2000 -2010. There was a sudden change in annual average temperature in 1995. In the 50 years, annual av- erage precipitation in Yanshi City increased by 1.8 mm/10 a, but the increase was not significant. The minimum of annual average precipitation 511.3 mm appeared in the 1960s, while the maximum 553.2 mm appeared in 2000 -2010.

非稳定渗流条件下宽级配砂砾土细粒迁移试验研究

既有的土体内部稳定性判定准则,对宽级配砂砾土非稳定渗流中的内部稳定状态难以准确刻画。从细粒迁移显微观测的试验设计中,通过测算试样流速与累计侵蚀率的突变特征,引入孔隙率n修正Istonima准则。研究结果表明:①细粒活跃状态随不均匀系数C u及孔隙率n的增加而增加,根据其运动特征可划分为稳定、过渡和不稳定3个阶段。②流速发展为存在渗流突变点的随水力梯度先减后增的非线性过程,渗流突变点是渗流压密—渗流侵蚀的转化临界点;试验中各因素对质量侵蚀率敏感性大小为:水力梯度、级配不均匀度、孔隙率,在C_(u)=20.47、n=0.40时质量侵蚀率最大。③通过对比以试样内部细粒稳定程度及宏观参数特征所划分的内部稳定性判定结果与各判定准则结果,将相对准确的Istonima准则进行修正,提高了对宽级配砂砾土内部稳定性的判定准确性。

高速地铁隧道区间风井扩大段压力突变机理试验研究

针对高速地铁列车通过隧道区间风井扩大段时引起的乘客耳感不适,依托某带隧道风井的地铁线路区间及设计时速120 km的8车编组地铁列车,以ATO运行模式开展实车试验;在确保试验可重复性的基础上,探究列车站间运行时各车厢内外压力变化规律,分析区间风井扩大段引起车内外压力突变的原因。结果表明:车头和车尾先后高速通过风井段时,相当于经历了隧道断面面积先扩大再缩小的变化过程,会形成类似于车头和车尾驶出和进入隧道洞口的物理现象,车头、车尾通过区间风井扩大段会导致车外压力的上升、下降,此时产生的压力突变是导致耳感不适的主要原因;尾车至头车的车外压力正峰值和负峰值全程呈上升趋势,头车和尾车压力变化峰峰值接近,分别为1 617和1 723 Pa,5车压力变化峰峰值最小,为964 Pa;列车通过区间风井扩大段时,车内压力变化幅值受运行速度的影响较大,速度为113 km·h^(-1)时,任意3和1 s内的车内压力变化幅值均超过相应标准中的耳感舒适性要求。

1985-2020年美国火灾的变化规律及其对气候变化的响应

美国森林资源丰富,受林火侵扰尤为严重,是研究气候变化背景下火灾活动及其驱动机制的关键区域。基于1985—2020年美国火灾数据及全球CRU格点气象数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法和相关分析法,研究美国林火变化趋势和突变年份,探讨突变前后林火对气候响应差异。结果表明美国过火面积在2001—2002年间发生突变,2002年以来美国过火面积对温度响应敏感的时空范围由夏季美国西部山地向冬春季美国中东部和南部地区扩展,美国西部林区过火面积受前一年自校准帕尔默干旱严重程度指数(sc_PDSI)的影响增强。2002—2020年过火面积受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响减弱,受北大西洋涛动(NAO)的影响增强。

徐州市降水量时空分布特征及趋势分析

为研究徐州市降水量时空分布特征及变化趋势,本文根据徐州市1956—2021年的降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、Theil-Sen斜率法、线性回归方程等多种方法,从不同角度分析徐州市降水量变化趋势、突变特征及时空分布特征。结果表明,徐州市近66年平均年降水量整体呈下降趋势,趋势并不显著;降水空间分布不均匀,自西北向东南呈递增趋势;2016—2021年经历了7次枯-丰交替。研究成果可为徐州市降水预测及防汛抗旱提供参考。

长江流域降水集中突变特征及其遥相关因子分析

降水时域集中特征研究对流域抗旱防涝至关重要。基于长江流域1960~2020年气象站点降水数据计算降水集中度(PCD)与集中期(PCP)指数,采用滑动t检验、交叉小波变换与小波相干分析等方法,检测降水集中指数序列突变点,分析突变前后降水集中程度时空变化特征,并揭示降水集中指数对遥相关因子的响应。结果表明:①PCD与PCP突变节点约为1988年,突变前后PCD和PCP空间上皆大致呈由东南向西北递增的趋势,突变后流域年内降水分配趋向于均匀坦化且集中期提前。②PCD、PCP与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)、北极涛动(AO)、厄尔尼诺(ENSO)、太阳黑子(SS)存在共振周期,其中PDO和ENSO与PCD和PCP共振相互作用更加显著,表明该遥相关因子可能是导致长江流域降水特征突变的重要因素之一。研究成果可为长江流域灾害防治、生态保护、水资源管理等工作提供技术支撑。

THE DETECTION OF CLIMATE ABRUPT CHANGE WITH MANN-KENDALL RANK STATISTICS

The characteristics of Mann-Kendall Rank Statistics and its applications in detecting abrupt change of climate have been described.At the same time,a new method is put forward to detect the abrupt change in variance.

密云水库流域1960-2021年水文变量演变特征分析

本文利用密云水库流域近62年的降水量和径流量资料,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,分析流域年、汛期和非汛期降水演变规律及年度、季节径流变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:1960—2021年密云水库流域降水波动较大,年内分布不均,汛期降水量呈不显著下降趋势,非汛期呈显著上升趋势。流域年径流量总体在波动中呈现明显递减的趋势,各个季节的径流量变化趋势一致,均通过了0.01显著性检验,各季节径流量下降趋势显著。密云水库流域降水量和径流量突变特征存在差异性,径流量突变点较降水量突变点明显偏少,表明降水量波动性更大,径流量呈衰减趋势,可能与流域气候变化及人类活动的影响有关。本文分析了近62年密云水库流域水文变化趋势和规律,以期为流域水资源规划、防灾减灾等提供参考。

基于云模型的深圳市降水时空分布研究

为研究深圳市降水的时空分布规律及演变特征,基于深圳市11个雨量观测站点1960年~2020年逐月降水数据,采用正向云发生器算法及多步式逆向云变换算法构建云模型,并结合趋势分析及突变检验等方法,定性及定量分析了深圳市的降水时空演变特征。结果表明:深圳市降水量年内存在6月和8月2个峰值,汛期降水离散程度高,6月稳定性最低;11月~次年2月降水量相近且较小,稳定性较高;年降水量总体上呈增加趋势;1992年为降水突变年,突变后的降水量增加,降水不均匀性增加,稳定性降低;年降水量在时间分布上更离散,更不稳定;深圳市降水量及降水不均匀性空间分布均从东南向西北递减,东部地区降水量最大,降水最不均匀,中部地区降水最为稳定。研究成果能为深圳市水资源管理、防洪排涝及气候变化研究提供科学参考。

呼和浩特市近60年生长季地温变化特征分析

为研究气候变化对呼和浩特市生长季地温的影响,使用呼和浩特市6个国家气象观测站1961—2020年5~80 cm土壤不同土层逐月平均温度资料,运用气候倾向率、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验等统计方法,分析该地区60年地温变化特征。结果表明,呼和浩特市生长季平均地温呈显著升高趋势,增幅为0.21~0.59℃/10 a。不同土层平均地温的年际变化特征也呈上升趋势,经历了“冷—暖”的演变过程。20世纪60、70年代为冷期,80年代冷暖交替,90年代至21世纪初期为暖期。地温变化普遍具有5~10 a周期。5~80 cm土层平均地温分别在1990、1986、1986、1988、1998、2005年发生突变,20 cm土层平均地温对气候变暖的响应更敏感。

1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势

利用东北地区96个气象站1961—2005年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,采用线性倾向率法,累积距平法,Mann-Kendall法和Morlet小波分析等方法,对东北地区近45年来的气候变化和突变现象进行了研究。结果表明:近45年来,东北地区年平均气温变化在2.45—5.72℃之间,年均温呈现显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.38℃/10 a(P<0.01),1988—1989年间发生了由低温到高温的突变;东北地区四季平均气温均呈现增高的趋势,其中冬季气温增幅最大,气候倾向率达到0.53℃/10 a,夏季气温增幅最小,0.24℃/10 a。东北地区年均温和季节均温年代际变化亦呈现明显的增暖趋势,年均温,春季均温和冬季均温均在1981—1990年开始变暖,夏季均温和秋季均温在1991—2000年开始变暖。东北地区气温增暖幅度随纬度的升高而增大,大兴安岭北部和小兴安岭地区是增温最明显的地区,增暖幅度较小的地区为辽河平原,辽东半岛和长白山南部地区。东北地区年降水量变化在430.40—678.72 mm之间,降水量变化趋势不明显,整体呈现减少趋势,气候倾向率为-5.71 mm/10 a(P>0.05),1981—1990年为降水最多的年代,1982—1983年间发生了降水量由少到多的突变。四季降水量变化呈现不同的趋势,其中春季和冬季降水量呈现增多的趋势,夏季和秋季降水量呈现减少的趋势。降水量减少较明显的地区为辽东半岛和长白山南段,降水量增多较明显的地区为大兴安岭北部和松嫩平原。Morlet小波分析结果表明,东北地区年平均气温存在11 a的强显著周期,此外还有24 a和6 a尺度的变化周期;东北地区年降水量存在16 a的强显著周期和6 a的小尺度变化周期。通过以上分析,近45 a东北地区总体气候呈现明显暖干化趋势。

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in North China during Recent 30 Years

Based on the monthly precipitation data from 43 stations in North China from 1979 to 2008,the variation characteristics of precipitation in North China in recent 30 years were analyzed by means of empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,Morlet wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall test.The results showed that the spatial distribution of annual and seasonal precipitation was basically identical in North China,while the annual and summer precipitation from the middle of 1980s to the middle of 1990s were obviously more than these in other periods,and there was great annual variation in spring precipitation in 1990s,while autumn precipitation was higher from 1980s to 1990s and then went down after the beginning of 21st century,which was opposite to winter precipitation,namely there was more winter precipitation from 1980s to 1990s and fewer winter precipitation after the beginning of 21st century.In addition,the annual and summer precipitation changed abruptly in 1997,and there was no obvious change in spring precipitation and autumn precipitation,while winter precipitation had an abrupt change in 2000.Meanwhile,wavelet analysis revealed that the variation period of annual and seasonal precipitation was 3-4 years.

煤炭开采对矿区土地利用景观格局变化的影响

为揭示煤炭资源开采对矿区土地利用景观格局变化的影响,以徐州沛北矿区为例,应用GIS、景观生态学和数理统计方法,分析了该区土地利用结构和景观格局变化,并从生命周期的角度探讨了煤炭开采对景观格局演变过程的影响。结果表明:1994—2014年间沛北矿区土地利用结构和景观格局变化显著,耕地、林地和未利用地减少,工矿建设用地和塌陷水体持续增加;景观呈破碎化和均匀化趋势,景观分形特征趋于简单化和规则化。进一步对景观指数突变检验分析可知,耕地最大斑块指数和集聚度指数分别在1999年和2001年出现突变点;塌陷水体的最大斑块指数自1995年起持续上升,而集聚度指数呈显著上升—变化不显著—显著上升的趋势。煤炭持续大规模开采导致地面塌陷、积水,耕地损毁以及快速城镇化是景观格局变化的主要原因,但随着矿区土地复垦,耕地、水体面积增大,景观破碎化程度减小,对塌陷地的治理取得了一定成效。研究结果对矿区土地复垦和受损生态景观修复具有重要的指导作用。

1961～2013年新疆气温和降水的时空变化特征分析

【目的】利用新疆65个气象站1961~2013年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,分析新疆近53 a来气温和降水的时空变化规律。【方法】采用线性倾向率法,分析新疆1961~2013年以来气温和降水量,在时间序列上,用增减趋势累积距平法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法,对比分析新疆年均温和年降水量的突变情况,采用反距离加权插值法对新疆各站点的气候倾向率进行插值。【结果】1961~2013年以来,在时间变化上,新疆年均温和降水量均呈显著上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.324℃/10 a(P<0.01)和16.238 mm/10 a(P<0.01),且突变分别发生在1993和1983年。四季平均气温和降水量也呈现增高的趋势,其中冬季增温幅度最大,为0.39℃/10 a;夏季降水量增多幅度最大,为4.799 mm/10 a。新疆年均温、年降水量、四季均温和四季降水量的年代际变化均呈现出明显的增加趋势。在空间变化上,东疆、北疆西部和北部增温明显;北疆、南疆克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州、喀什地区西部和和田地区东部降水量明显增多。【结论】新疆气温、降水在时间和空间上均呈增加趋势,呈现出暖湿化现象。

新疆塔里木河三源流径流量变化趋势分析

运用非参数检验、R/S分析和小波分析等方法对塔里木河三源流的年径流序列进行了分析。结果表明:阿克苏河与叶儿羌河的突变点在1993年,而和田河在1978年;阿克苏河径流呈显著增加趋势而叶儿羌河增加不显著,结合其Hurst指数可知,在未来阿克苏河仍将保持增加走势而叶尔羌河将转变为减少;和田河径流呈轻微的减少趋势,其Hurst指数接近于0.5,具有随机性,不可做长程预测;阿克苏河在6、18、22 a周期性明显,和田河主周期为9和17 a,而叶尔羌河在3、9、13和17 a处周期性明显。

阿克苏河径流变化与北大西洋涛动的关系

使用小波、交叉小波多尺度分析、相关和突变检验以及线性趋势等方法研究了阿克苏河天然径流与北大西洋涛动的关系。结论如下:(1)对NAO与阿克苏河径流的年代际变化、周期、相关等分析表明两者关系密切;(2)交叉小波谱表明:阿克苏河径流与NAO在年、冬季和夏季各周期尺度上的20世纪90年代相关性高,相关显著区多集中在90年代;(3)阿克苏河径流与NAO年代趋势强弱变化具有一致性;(4)NAO突变影响阿克苏河径流突变;(5)NAO通过大气环流变化来影响阿克苏河流域温度和降水,进而影响其径流。