This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia.It contributes to the existing literature by(i)revisiting this question for the principal stock markets...This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia.It contributes to the existing literature by(i)revisiting this question for the principal stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region and(ii)using the copula-quantile-on-quantile and conditional value at risk methods to detail the risks facing market participants provided with accurate information about various gold and stock market scenarios(i.e.,bear,normal,bull).The results provide strong evidence of quantile dependence between gold and stock returns.Positive correlations are found between MENA gold and stock markets when both are bullish.Conversely,when stock returns are bearish,gold markets show negative correlations with MENA stock markets.The risk spillover from gold to stock markets intensified during the global financial and European crises.Given the risk spillover between gold and stock markets,investors in MENA markets should be careful when considering gold as a safe haven because its effectiveness as a hedge is not the same in all MENA stock markets.Investors and portfolio managers should rebalance their portfolio compositions under various gold and stock market conditions.Overall,such precise insights about the heterogeneous linkages and spillovers between gold and MENA stock returns provide potential input for developing effective hedging strategies and optimal portfolio allocations.展开更多
Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad o...Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad or good is the situation there？＂ and ＂what is the expectation about the future of the region？＂ Like other countries around the world, the MENA oil exporters, comprised of Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Yemen were adversely affected by the global crisis. The MENA oil exporters are recently recovering from their recession in 2009 when the global crisis was felt intensively there. GDP in the region has grown by 3.5 percent in 2010 after a low growth of 0.7 percent in 2009. The average real GDP growth excluding Libya is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2011. Two developments mark the outlook： the unrest in the region and the surge in global fuel and food prices. For most oil exporters, the expected increase in oil prices and production volumes will lead to higher growth in 2011 and stronger fiscal and external balances, notwithstanding recent increases in government spending. The oil exporters＇ combined external current account surplus is estimated to increase. The effects of the political events in Tunisia and Egypt have spread in varying degrees to the MENA oil exporters in the region, and many of these countries are responding with public spending and job-creation measures to alleviate social tensions. The social unrest also highlights the need to pursue fundamental economic reforms--social policy, fiscal management, governance, business environment, labor markets, and financial sector access to facilitate more inclusive economic growth. While the MENA countries are generally divided into two sub-regions such as ＂oil exporters＂ and ＂oil importers＂ in the economic literature, the authors will deal with only the MENA oil exporters in this work. The negative effects of the global crisis in these countries on growth, inflation, current account balance, budget balance, and finally financial sector will be reviewed in this work and the expectations and the developments which occurred after the crisis in these countries will be dealt with especially in the context of the IMF reports.展开更多
We investigated the performance of 12 different physics configurations of the climate version of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. Possible combinat...We investigated the performance of 12 different physics configurations of the climate version of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. Possible combinations among two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), three Cumulus (CUM) and two Microphysics (MIC) schemes were tested. The 2-year simulations (December 1988-November 1990) have been compared with gridded observational data and station measurements for several variables, including total precipitation and maximum and minimum 2-meter air temperature. An objective ranking method of the 12 different simulations and the selection procedure of the best performing configuration for the MENA domain are based on several statistical metrics and carried out for relevant sub-domains and individual stations. The setup for cloud microphysics is found to have the strongest impact on temperature biases while precipitation is most sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme and mainly in the tropics.展开更多
Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessi...Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessible but not suitable for human use. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries, the agriculture sector depends massively on water for farming activities, which consumes about 80% of the available water resources. In this context, the issue of environmental water scarcity is under highlighted, though the use of this term itself is still lacking in an international context (FAO). Meanwhile, the international goal of universal access to clean freshwater is included in global development targets (SDGs). This study provides some insights and deepens our understanding on environmental water scarcity, particularly MEN-A region countries. This review paper begins with an introduction to water scarcity and continues with a discussion of environmental issues associated with water scarcity in MENA region countries. Finally, we suggest some adaptive measures in two distinct areas such as agriculture sectors and policy makers and conclude that the lack of implementation of this particular term is hindering sustainable development in MENA region countries.展开更多
The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In ...The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In the light of climate variability and the unprecedented population growth rate, the per capita water resources and biocapacity will continue plummeting, and the demand-gap will seriously expand. Existing water quantification agreements have been deemed inefficient to solve the problem of naturally diminishing water resources and thus require immediate re-assembling. Most scholarly endeavors, including key international organizations, NGOs, and “Think Tank” policy briefs have limitedly addressed water shortage in contexts of regional politics, mass media, and, importantly, from social psychology perspectives. Therefore, a thorough analysis and interdisciplinary approach is required to find a feasible and suitable framework of solutions and from a multi-perspective podium. A synthesis of cross-sectorial bottlenecks that are crucial to water management is presented, and a suite of practical recommendations are introduced to water authorities and governments. This study argues that in the shadow of the region’s political instability, the clash of ideologies and its repercussions, and issues of national security and sovereignty, regional cooperation on water issues remain prognostications. In this essence, governments of MENA countries are urged to develop measures to substantially increase the water supply through innovative approaches. Such measures include enhancing the capacities of water harvesting, maximizing the storage capacities of the built dams, and deploying groundwater recharge techniques. Furthermore, seawater and brackish water desalination through clean energy technologies is a contemporary solution with socio-economic and multiple benefits. Multi-billion water projects might not be suitable approach in the absence of external funding and the aforementioned hurdles. Further research is required to address the social economics, and environmental aspects of desalination and the socio-economic feasibility of privatizing drinking water utilities and price polarization.展开更多
The majority of Middle East and North Africa(MENA)countries suffer from chronic imbalance between available water supply and rising water demand.This imbalance is expected to worsen even further in the future as a res...The majority of Middle East and North Africa(MENA)countries suffer from chronic imbalance between available water supply and rising water demand.This imbalance is expected to worsen even further in the future as a result of sharp population growth,rapid economic development and climate change,unless major positive measures are implemented to augment water supply and manage water demand.The supply management approach,on its own,practiced by many countries in the region for so many years has so far demonstrated its inability to bridge the“water gap”between available water resources and rising water demand,as most traditional water resourced in almost all MENA countries have been exploited(or over exploited),and the cost of non-traditional water resources has become increasingly prohibitively high,apart from its environmental impact.Demand management is regarded by many water experts in the region as the answer or“panacea”for the water imbalance problem.But,is demand management approach alone able to solve the problem of water scarcity in the MENA region?In other words,if all demand management measures have been fully implemented,would there still be gaps between supply and demand that need to be filled with supply augmentation,andwill supply management options still need to be part of the solution?This paper tries to answer this question by reviewing several works in this domain,particularly,recent studies by the World Bank[9-11].It was concluded that,although water demand management measures should be given the first priority,especially,in the agricultural sector where it has the maximum impact,demand management on its own will not be able to bridge the“water gap”,and supply management options,such as sea water desalination and the re-use of treated wastewater,will be part of the solution.展开更多
The Middle Eastern and North African （MENA） region has the potential to rise if it puts the recent changes to good use. Political changes in some countries might have opened the way for liberalization, which in turn...The Middle Eastern and North African （MENA） region has the potential to rise if it puts the recent changes to good use. Political changes in some countries might have opened the way for liberalization, which in turn again might facilitate democratization. Both will benefit the economic development of the region. So far, economic growth is hindered by excessive and ineffective public sectors, which do not provide sufficient opportunities for the growing young population. Privatization of some services and a general liberalization of the markets might help bring the young workforce into employment and in the long run will fuel an economic upswing.展开更多
This paper focuses on quantifying the renewable energy mix in the MENA （Middle East and North Africa） region and underlines its impact in terms of economic aspects. The installed and targeted capacities of solar, wi...This paper focuses on quantifying the renewable energy mix in the MENA （Middle East and North Africa） region and underlines its impact in terms of economic aspects. The installed and targeted capacities of solar, wind and other technologies will be revealed. In addition, distinguished present and on-going projects as well as prominent funding organizations are discussed. The overall strategy as well as the evolution of the renewable energy plan is resumed.展开更多
Using a unique and novel dataset on the youth,the SAHWA Youth Survey(2016),we apply probit and ordered probit models to study the determinants of voting behaviour change among the youth in the Middle East and North Af...Using a unique and novel dataset on the youth,the SAHWA Youth Survey(2016),we apply probit and ordered probit models to study the determinants of voting behaviour change among the youth in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region in the post-Arab Spring era.We find that drivers of voting vary depending on whether we consider the voting behaviour in the last elections or the likelihood of voting in the next elections.Specifically,socioeconomic variables and some Arab Spring factors are significant for both types of elections.However,institutional variables and personal beliefs only affect the likelihood of voting in the next elections.We also document heterogeneous effects for the last and next votes by gender.展开更多
Background: In our previous study, we identified a candidate tumor suppressor gene, testin LIM domain protein (TES), in primary gastric cancer (GC). TES contains three LIM domains, which are specific interacting regio...Background: In our previous study, we identified a candidate tumor suppressor gene, testin LIM domain protein (TES), in primary gastric cancer (GC). TES contains three LIM domains, which are specific interacting regions for the cell adhesion and cytoskeleton regulatory proteins. Mena is a known cytoskeleton regulator that regulates the assembly of actin filaments and modulates cell adhesion and motility by interacting with Lamellipodin (Lpd). Therefore, we hypothesized that TES plays a role as tumor suppressor in GC through interacting with Mena. This study aimed to investigate the tumor suppressive functions of TES in GC. Methods: We explored the tumor suppressive effect of TES in GC by in vitro cell proliferation assay, colony formation assay, cell cycle analysis, Transwell assays, and in vivo tumorigenicity and metastasis assays. The interaction of TES and Mena was investigated through immunoprecipitation-based mass spectrometry. We also analyzed the expression of TES and Mena in 172 GC specimens using immunohistochemistry and investigated the clinicopathological and prog-nostic significance of TES and Mena in GC. Results: TES suppressed GC cell proliferation and colony formation, induced cell cycle arrest, and inhibited tumorigenicity in vitro. Additionally, it inhibited GC cell migration and invasion in vitro and suppressed metastasis in vivo. TES interacted with Mena, and inhibited the interaction of Mena with Lpd. Transwell assays suggested that TES suppressed migration and invasion of GC cells in a Mena-dependent fashion. In GC patients with high Mena expression, the expression of TES was associated with tumor infiltration (P = 0.005), lymph node metastasis (P = 0.003), TNM stage (P = 0.003), and prognosis (P = 0.010). However, no significant association was observed in GC patients with low Mena expression. Conclusions: We believe that TES functions as a Mena-dependent tumor suppressor. TES represents a valuable prog-nostic marker and potential target for GC treatment.展开更多
文摘This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia.It contributes to the existing literature by(i)revisiting this question for the principal stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region and(ii)using the copula-quantile-on-quantile and conditional value at risk methods to detail the risks facing market participants provided with accurate information about various gold and stock market scenarios(i.e.,bear,normal,bull).The results provide strong evidence of quantile dependence between gold and stock returns.Positive correlations are found between MENA gold and stock markets when both are bullish.Conversely,when stock returns are bearish,gold markets show negative correlations with MENA stock markets.The risk spillover from gold to stock markets intensified during the global financial and European crises.Given the risk spillover between gold and stock markets,investors in MENA markets should be careful when considering gold as a safe haven because its effectiveness as a hedge is not the same in all MENA stock markets.Investors and portfolio managers should rebalance their portfolio compositions under various gold and stock market conditions.Overall,such precise insights about the heterogeneous linkages and spillovers between gold and MENA stock returns provide potential input for developing effective hedging strategies and optimal portfolio allocations.
文摘Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad or good is the situation there？＂ and ＂what is the expectation about the future of the region？＂ Like other countries around the world, the MENA oil exporters, comprised of Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Yemen were adversely affected by the global crisis. The MENA oil exporters are recently recovering from their recession in 2009 when the global crisis was felt intensively there. GDP in the region has grown by 3.5 percent in 2010 after a low growth of 0.7 percent in 2009. The average real GDP growth excluding Libya is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2011. Two developments mark the outlook： the unrest in the region and the surge in global fuel and food prices. For most oil exporters, the expected increase in oil prices and production volumes will lead to higher growth in 2011 and stronger fiscal and external balances, notwithstanding recent increases in government spending. The oil exporters＇ combined external current account surplus is estimated to increase. The effects of the political events in Tunisia and Egypt have spread in varying degrees to the MENA oil exporters in the region, and many of these countries are responding with public spending and job-creation measures to alleviate social tensions. The social unrest also highlights the need to pursue fundamental economic reforms--social policy, fiscal management, governance, business environment, labor markets, and financial sector access to facilitate more inclusive economic growth. While the MENA countries are generally divided into two sub-regions such as ＂oil exporters＂ and ＂oil importers＂ in the economic literature, the authors will deal with only the MENA oil exporters in this work. The negative effects of the global crisis in these countries on growth, inflation, current account balance, budget balance, and finally financial sector will be reviewed in this work and the expectations and the developments which occurred after the crisis in these countries will be dealt with especially in the context of the IMF reports.
文摘We investigated the performance of 12 different physics configurations of the climate version of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. Possible combinations among two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), three Cumulus (CUM) and two Microphysics (MIC) schemes were tested. The 2-year simulations (December 1988-November 1990) have been compared with gridded observational data and station measurements for several variables, including total precipitation and maximum and minimum 2-meter air temperature. An objective ranking method of the 12 different simulations and the selection procedure of the best performing configuration for the MENA domain are based on several statistical metrics and carried out for relevant sub-domains and individual stations. The setup for cloud microphysics is found to have the strongest impact on temperature biases while precipitation is most sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme and mainly in the tropics.
文摘Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessible but not suitable for human use. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries, the agriculture sector depends massively on water for farming activities, which consumes about 80% of the available water resources. In this context, the issue of environmental water scarcity is under highlighted, though the use of this term itself is still lacking in an international context (FAO). Meanwhile, the international goal of universal access to clean freshwater is included in global development targets (SDGs). This study provides some insights and deepens our understanding on environmental water scarcity, particularly MEN-A region countries. This review paper begins with an introduction to water scarcity and continues with a discussion of environmental issues associated with water scarcity in MENA region countries. Finally, we suggest some adaptive measures in two distinct areas such as agriculture sectors and policy makers and conclude that the lack of implementation of this particular term is hindering sustainable development in MENA region countries.
文摘The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In the light of climate variability and the unprecedented population growth rate, the per capita water resources and biocapacity will continue plummeting, and the demand-gap will seriously expand. Existing water quantification agreements have been deemed inefficient to solve the problem of naturally diminishing water resources and thus require immediate re-assembling. Most scholarly endeavors, including key international organizations, NGOs, and “Think Tank” policy briefs have limitedly addressed water shortage in contexts of regional politics, mass media, and, importantly, from social psychology perspectives. Therefore, a thorough analysis and interdisciplinary approach is required to find a feasible and suitable framework of solutions and from a multi-perspective podium. A synthesis of cross-sectorial bottlenecks that are crucial to water management is presented, and a suite of practical recommendations are introduced to water authorities and governments. This study argues that in the shadow of the region’s political instability, the clash of ideologies and its repercussions, and issues of national security and sovereignty, regional cooperation on water issues remain prognostications. In this essence, governments of MENA countries are urged to develop measures to substantially increase the water supply through innovative approaches. Such measures include enhancing the capacities of water harvesting, maximizing the storage capacities of the built dams, and deploying groundwater recharge techniques. Furthermore, seawater and brackish water desalination through clean energy technologies is a contemporary solution with socio-economic and multiple benefits. Multi-billion water projects might not be suitable approach in the absence of external funding and the aforementioned hurdles. Further research is required to address the social economics, and environmental aspects of desalination and the socio-economic feasibility of privatizing drinking water utilities and price polarization.
文摘The majority of Middle East and North Africa(MENA)countries suffer from chronic imbalance between available water supply and rising water demand.This imbalance is expected to worsen even further in the future as a result of sharp population growth,rapid economic development and climate change,unless major positive measures are implemented to augment water supply and manage water demand.The supply management approach,on its own,practiced by many countries in the region for so many years has so far demonstrated its inability to bridge the“water gap”between available water resources and rising water demand,as most traditional water resourced in almost all MENA countries have been exploited(or over exploited),and the cost of non-traditional water resources has become increasingly prohibitively high,apart from its environmental impact.Demand management is regarded by many water experts in the region as the answer or“panacea”for the water imbalance problem.But,is demand management approach alone able to solve the problem of water scarcity in the MENA region?In other words,if all demand management measures have been fully implemented,would there still be gaps between supply and demand that need to be filled with supply augmentation,andwill supply management options still need to be part of the solution?This paper tries to answer this question by reviewing several works in this domain,particularly,recent studies by the World Bank[9-11].It was concluded that,although water demand management measures should be given the first priority,especially,in the agricultural sector where it has the maximum impact,demand management on its own will not be able to bridge the“water gap”,and supply management options,such as sea water desalination and the re-use of treated wastewater,will be part of the solution.
文摘The Middle Eastern and North African （MENA） region has the potential to rise if it puts the recent changes to good use. Political changes in some countries might have opened the way for liberalization, which in turn again might facilitate democratization. Both will benefit the economic development of the region. So far, economic growth is hindered by excessive and ineffective public sectors, which do not provide sufficient opportunities for the growing young population. Privatization of some services and a general liberalization of the markets might help bring the young workforce into employment and in the long run will fuel an economic upswing.
文摘This paper focuses on quantifying the renewable energy mix in the MENA （Middle East and North Africa） region and underlines its impact in terms of economic aspects. The installed and targeted capacities of solar, wind and other technologies will be revealed. In addition, distinguished present and on-going projects as well as prominent funding organizations are discussed. The overall strategy as well as the evolution of the renewable energy plan is resumed.
文摘Using a unique and novel dataset on the youth,the SAHWA Youth Survey(2016),we apply probit and ordered probit models to study the determinants of voting behaviour change among the youth in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region in the post-Arab Spring era.We find that drivers of voting vary depending on whether we consider the voting behaviour in the last elections or the likelihood of voting in the next elections.Specifically,socioeconomic variables and some Arab Spring factors are significant for both types of elections.However,institutional variables and personal beliefs only affect the likelihood of voting in the next elections.We also document heterogeneous effects for the last and next votes by gender.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Numbers 81572865,31501132,81773110,81402281 and 81402560]Guangdong Province Science and Technology Plan Project[Grant Number 2012A030400059]+1 种基金The Innovation Project of Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences,the Shandong Key Research and Development Plan[Grant Number 2016GSF202042]The Distinguished Experts of Taishan Scholar Project[Grant Number ts201511074].
文摘Background: In our previous study, we identified a candidate tumor suppressor gene, testin LIM domain protein (TES), in primary gastric cancer (GC). TES contains three LIM domains, which are specific interacting regions for the cell adhesion and cytoskeleton regulatory proteins. Mena is a known cytoskeleton regulator that regulates the assembly of actin filaments and modulates cell adhesion and motility by interacting with Lamellipodin (Lpd). Therefore, we hypothesized that TES plays a role as tumor suppressor in GC through interacting with Mena. This study aimed to investigate the tumor suppressive functions of TES in GC. Methods: We explored the tumor suppressive effect of TES in GC by in vitro cell proliferation assay, colony formation assay, cell cycle analysis, Transwell assays, and in vivo tumorigenicity and metastasis assays. The interaction of TES and Mena was investigated through immunoprecipitation-based mass spectrometry. We also analyzed the expression of TES and Mena in 172 GC specimens using immunohistochemistry and investigated the clinicopathological and prog-nostic significance of TES and Mena in GC. Results: TES suppressed GC cell proliferation and colony formation, induced cell cycle arrest, and inhibited tumorigenicity in vitro. Additionally, it inhibited GC cell migration and invasion in vitro and suppressed metastasis in vivo. TES interacted with Mena, and inhibited the interaction of Mena with Lpd. Transwell assays suggested that TES suppressed migration and invasion of GC cells in a Mena-dependent fashion. In GC patients with high Mena expression, the expression of TES was associated with tumor infiltration (P = 0.005), lymph node metastasis (P = 0.003), TNM stage (P = 0.003), and prognosis (P = 0.010). However, no significant association was observed in GC patients with low Mena expression. Conclusions: We believe that TES functions as a Mena-dependent tumor suppressor. TES represents a valuable prog-nostic marker and potential target for GC treatment.
