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基于雷达资料4DVar的低层热动力反演系统及其在北京奥运期间的初步应用分析 被引量:44
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作者 陈明轩 王迎春 +1 位作者 高峰 王婷婷 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第1期64-78,共15页
在变分多普勒雷达分析系统(VDRAS)中,通过对雷达资料的质量控制和预处理、云尺度模式的暖雨参数化方案、中尺度初猜场的插值分析方法、循环同化的冷启动和热启动中尺度背景场的计算方案等进行改进,实现了VDRAS对低层动力和热力场的分析... 在变分多普勒雷达分析系统(VDRAS)中,通过对雷达资料的质量控制和预处理、云尺度模式的暖雨参数化方案、中尺度初猜场的插值分析方法、循环同化的冷启动和热启动中尺度背景场的计算方案等进行改进,实现了VDRAS对低层动力和热力场的分析反演及其在北京奥运期间的实时应用。改进后的VDRAS利用四维变分(4DVar)同化技术和一个包含简化暖雨参数化方案的云尺度模式,对北京和天津2部S波段天气雷达资料进行12min间隔的快速更新循环同化分析,反演与对流风暴生消发展密切相关的低层热动力三维结构,包括水平风场、垂直速度、辐合辐散、扰动温度、扰动温度梯度等,以及它们的时间增量。通过对北京奥运期间2个风暴个例的实时反演结果的分析表明,VDRAS反演的动力场能够反映低层的水平辐合、垂直抬升、风暴出流及它们的变化特征,而热力场则能够反映与风暴相伴随的冷池结构及其变化、阵风锋的相对位置及强弱。VDRAS的反演结果符合风暴发展传播与冷池、阵风锋、辐合抬升之间关系的概念模型。利用边界层风廓线雷达、地面自动站及地基微波辐射仪的观测资料,对VDRAS实时反演结果的初步统计检验表明,反演的风场和温度场与观测比较接近,风场能够反映出与风暴密切相关的低层风的垂直切变特征,温度场则能够反映出由于风暴过程所导致的地面温度的剧烈变化。与风廓线观测相比,反演的低层风速偏弱,偏差和均方根误差分别在-1.5m/s和2.5m/s以内,而风向的偏差和均方根误差分别在20°和45°以内。与地基微波辐射仪观测相比,反演的低层温度偏低,偏差和均方根误差分别在-1.9℃和2.8℃以内。 展开更多
关键词 多普勒雷达 对流风暴 4dvar 热动力反演
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多普勒雷达资料4DVAR同化反演的模拟研究 被引量:45
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作者 许小永 郑国光 刘黎平 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2004年第4期410-422,共13页
利用Sun等建立的同化模式和四维变分同化方法对多普勒雷达资料反演大气风场、热力场和微物理场进行了模拟试验研究。反演的基本思路是 :将 4DVAR同化方法应用到三维云模式 ,定义价值函数表征雷达资料与模式预报结果之间的差别 ,通过极... 利用Sun等建立的同化模式和四维变分同化方法对多普勒雷达资料反演大气风场、热力场和微物理场进行了模拟试验研究。反演的基本思路是 :将 4DVAR同化方法应用到三维云模式 ,定义价值函数表征雷达资料与模式预报结果之间的差别 ,通过极小化价值函数得到反演场 ,价值函数相对模式控制变量的梯度由伴随模式求取。试验结果表明 ,4DVAR同化技术能够从单 (双 )多普勒雷达资料反演大气三维风场、热力场和微物理场。各个变量反演精度高低与同化过程中变量受约束的大小程度呈正相关。速度场和雨水场反演精度较高 ,温度场、云水和水汽的反演精度次之 ,温度场的准确反演需要较长的同化时间。价值函数中加入背景场 ,哪怕是单点探空给出的平均场信息也有利于提高反演精度。在采用单部多普勒雷达资料进行反演时 ,速度场的反演误差较大。反演区相对雷达站的位置变化对速度场反演结果有一定的影响 ,而对其他变量的反演影响很小。两个时次的雷达观测资料基本足够提供反演所需的时间演变信息 ,同化更多时次的雷达资料 ,反演效果改进很小。雷达观测资料的缺值会显著降低同化效果 ,甚至可能导致同化失败 ,引入背景场可以改善这一状况。 4DVAR同化技术对于雷达观测资料误差不太敏感。利用双多普勒雷达合成风场提供水平风场边? 展开更多
关键词 多普勒雷达 4dvar同化 反演 价值函数
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应用ATOVS资料和非对称Bogus资料对登陆台风韦帕的4DVAR数值模拟分析 被引量:6
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作者 袁炳 费建芳 +1 位作者 王云峰 卢强 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第5期13-20,共8页
前人研究中BDA方法采用的轴对称Bogus台风不能反映个别台风具体特征并弃掉了背景场的合理成分,也没有考虑大环境场的影响及湿热要素的同化。因此,提出一种充分融合分析场信息和实际观测信息并考虑副高影响的精细非对称台风Bogus方法,并... 前人研究中BDA方法采用的轴对称Bogus台风不能反映个别台风具体特征并弃掉了背景场的合理成分,也没有考虑大环境场的影响及湿热要素的同化。因此,提出一种充分融合分析场信息和实际观测信息并考虑副高影响的精细非对称台风Bogus方法,并在MM5的伴随同化系统中引入快速辐射传输模式RTTOV8,通过四维变分同化(4DVAR)技术,加入海面风场和气压场Bogus资料及多颗卫星多条轨道上的ATOVS红外和微波卫星辐射亮温资料并考虑Noah陆面过程方案来对登陆台风韦帕进行数值模拟,结果表明,单独同化海面Bogus资料的BDA方案可间接产生初始场非对称三维环流结构和暖心结构,但对湿度场及台风周围大环境场的调整不足,台风登陆后的路径预报改善也不明显;引入陆面过程方案弥补了Bogus资料对台风登陆后路径预报的不足;加入ATOVS资料能对湿度场及台风周围环境场做出调整,重构了大量中尺度结构信息,取得更为精细的初始台风环流和温压湿场结构,保持BDA方案路径及强度预报的优势的同时,使预报的降水强度增加,降水落区发生改变。 展开更多
关键词 数值天气预报 台风初值化 4dvar 非对称台风 ATOVS资料 台风模拟
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Impacts of Multigrid NLS-4DVar-based Doppler Radar Observation Assimilation on Numerical Simulations of Landfalling Typhoon Haikui (2012) 被引量:1
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作者 Lu ZHANG Xiangjun TIAN +1 位作者 Hongqin ZHANG Feng CHEN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第8期873-892,共20页
We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar)method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012)using the Weather Research and Fore... We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar)method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012)using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Observation data included radial velocity(Vr)and reflectivity(Z)data from a single Doppler radar,quality controlled prior to assimilation.Typhoon prediction results were evaluated and compared between the NLS-4DVar and MG-NLS4DVar methods.Compared with a forecast that began with NCEP analysis data,our radar data assimilation results were clearly improved in terms of structure,intensity,track,and precipitation prediction for Typhoon Haikui(2012).The results showed that the assimilation accuracy of the NLS-4DVar method was similar to that of the MG-NLS4DVar method,but that the latter was more efficient.The assimilation of Vr alone and Z alone each improved predictions of typhoon intensity,track,and precipitation;however,the impacts of Vr data were significantly greater that those of Z data.Assimilation window-length sensitivity experiments showed that a 6-h assimilation window with 30-min assimilation intervals produced slightly better results than either a 3-h assimilation window with 15-min assimilation intervals or a 1-h assimilation window with 6-min assimilation intervals. 展开更多
关键词 mg-nls4dvar NLS-4dvar radar data assimilation typhoon forecast
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基于NLS-4DVar方法的雷达资料同化及其在暴雨预报中的应用 被引量:3
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作者 张斌 田向军 +1 位作者 张立凤 孙建华 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2017年第2期321-332,共12页
在基于本征正交分解POD(Proper Orthogonal Decomposition)的集合四维变分同化方法(POD4DEn Var)建立的雷达资料同化系统(PRAS)的基础上,本文利用非线性最小二乘法的集合四维变分同化方法(NLS-4DVar)对PRAS进行改进,解决PRAS在高度非线... 在基于本征正交分解POD(Proper Orthogonal Decomposition)的集合四维变分同化方法(POD4DEn Var)建立的雷达资料同化系统(PRAS)的基础上,本文利用非线性最小二乘法的集合四维变分同化方法(NLS-4DVar)对PRAS进行改进,解决PRAS在高度非线性情况下的适应性问题,建立了新的雷达资料同化系统(NRAS)。通过观测系统模拟试验OSSEs(Observing System Simulation Experiments)和两次实际暴雨同化试验(2010年7月8日,中国中部地区;2014年3月30日,中国华南地区)对NRAS进行检验,并与PRAS的同化结果进行了对比。结果表明:无论是OSSEs还是实际雷达资料的同化,相对于PRAS,NRAS能够进一步提高同化效果。通过增加迭代的次数,NRAS能够有效地调整初始场的风场和水汽场,进一步提高了降水强度和位置的预报精度。但随着迭代次数的增加,对初始场的调整变小,进而对降水预报效果的改进也减小。试验结果表明NRAS能够有效解决PRAS在高度非线性情况下的应用问题,通过有限次数的迭代,即可得到近似收敛的结果。因而NRAS有望在数值预报中更有效地同化雷达资料,提高中小尺度天气的预报水平。 展开更多
关键词 雷达资料同化 PRAS资料同化系统 NLS-4dvar同化方法 NRAS资料同化系统 降水
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非线性集合四维变分同化方法NLS-4DVar之局地化改进 被引量:2
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作者 张洪芹 田向军 张承明 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第10期10-15,共6页
四维变分同化可利用同化窗口内所有可能的观测信息优化大气、海洋模式的初始场,从而极大地提高大气、海洋模式模拟性能,而作为4DVar标准算法的伴随方法始终无法避免繁琐与复杂的预报模式伴随方程的编程、维护以及更新。为避免伴随模式... 四维变分同化可利用同化窗口内所有可能的观测信息优化大气、海洋模式的初始场,从而极大地提高大气、海洋模式模拟性能,而作为4DVar标准算法的伴随方法始终无法避免繁琐与复杂的预报模式伴随方程的编程、维护以及更新。为避免伴随模式的使用,集合四维变分方法,4DEnVar方法被逐渐开发,为4DVar的求解提供了一种便捷的途径。4DEnVar一般通过局地化过程消除样本不足所造成的虚假相关,而局地化方案的不同也必然会影响到其最终的同化效果。本文将一种集合样本扩展的局地化方案引入到基于Gaussian-Newton迭代算法的非线性集合四维变分同化方法NLS-4DVar中,从而避免了原算法中为进行局地化过程而额外需要的线性化假设,使得算法收敛更稳定。另外,通过将原Gaussian-Newton迭代序列进行变形、避免了矩阵的直接求逆,极大地提高了同化算法的计算效率。利用非线性动力模型Lorenz-96所开展的观测系统模拟试验表明:采用新的样本扩展型局地化方案的NLS-4DVar算法,其同化精度略优于NLS-4DVar原始算法,由于避免了矩阵的直接求逆,其计算效率反而有所提高,同化所需时间有所降低,对于大气与海洋数据同化领域的应用具有极大的潜力。 展开更多
关键词 样本扩展型局地化方案 NLS-4dvar 共轭梯度法
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An Adjoint-Free CNOP–4DVar Hybrid Method for Identifying Sensitive Areas in Targeted Observations: Method Formulation and Preliminary Evaluation 被引量:4
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作者 Xiangjun TIAN Xiaobing FENG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第7期721-732,共12页
This paper proposes a hybrid method, called CNOP–4 DVar, for the identification of sensitive areas in targeted observations, which takes the advantages of both the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) and... This paper proposes a hybrid method, called CNOP–4 DVar, for the identification of sensitive areas in targeted observations, which takes the advantages of both the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) and four-dimensional variational assimilation(4 DVar) methods. The proposed CNOP–4 DVar method is capable of capturing the most sensitive initial perturbation(IP), which causes the greatest perturbation growth at the time of verification;it can also identify sensitive areas by evaluating their assimilation effects for eliminating the most sensitive IP. To alleviate the dependence of the CNOP–4 DVar method on the adjoint model, which is inherited from the adjoint-based approach, we utilized two adjointfree methods, NLS-CNOP and NLS-4 DVar, to solve the CNOP and 4 DVar sub-problems, respectively. A comprehensive performance evaluation for the proposed CNOP–4 DVar method and its comparison with the CNOP and CNOP–ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF) methods based on 10 000 observing system simulation experiments on the shallow-water equation model are also provided. The experimental results show that the proposed CNOP–4 DVar method performs better than the CNOP–ETKF method and substantially better than the CNOP method. 展开更多
关键词 CNOP 4dvar NLS-4dvar TARGETED OBSERVATIONS sensitive area identification
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Impact of 4DVAR Assimilation of Rainfall Data on the Simulation of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in a Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall Event 被引量:10
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作者 储可宽 谈哲敏 Ming XUE 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2007年第2期281-300,共20页
The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulate... The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model (MM5) and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation (4DVAR) system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales. Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance. 展开更多
关键词 4dvar rainfall assimilation impact mesoscale convective system mei-yu heavy rainfall
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4DVAR同化反演多普勒雷达资料在一次强降水中的应用 被引量:1
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作者 燕成玉 闵锦忠 +2 位作者 裴宇杰 李宗涛 张宝贵 《气象与减灾研究》 2012年第2期31-36,共6页
利用秦皇岛多普勒天气雷达资料,应用干模式的4DVAR系统反演发生在河北省昌黎县的一次强降水过程的二维风场,得到较为真实的中小尺度天气系统状况。强降水发生在"人"字形切变线的暖式切变线的前侧,当暖式切变线附近出现中-γ... 利用秦皇岛多普勒天气雷达资料,应用干模式的4DVAR系统反演发生在河北省昌黎县的一次强降水过程的二维风场,得到较为真实的中小尺度天气系统状况。强降水发生在"人"字形切变线的暖式切变线的前侧,当暖式切变线附近出现中-γ尺度闭合气旋性环流时,降水进一步增强。由于采用干模式的变分方法,每4 min就可完成一次风场的反演,其业务化前景非常乐观。 展开更多
关键词 4dvar 反演 雷达资料 低层风场
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Impact of Analysis-time Tuning on the Performance of the DRP-4DVar Approach 被引量:1
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作者 赵娟 王斌 刘娟娟 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第1期207-216,共10页
In this study we extend the dimension-reduced projection-four dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach to allow the analysis time to be tunable, so that the intervals between analysis time and ... In this study we extend the dimension-reduced projection-four dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach to allow the analysis time to be tunable, so that the intervals between analysis time and observation times can be shortened. Due to the limits of the perfect-model assumption and the tangentlinear hypothesis, the analysis-time tuning is expected to have the potential to further improve analyses and forecasts. Various sensitivity experiments using the Lorenz-96 model are conducted to test the impact of analysistime tuning on the performance of the new approach under perfect and imperfect model scenarios, respectively. Comparing three DRP-4DVar schemes having the analysis time at the start, middle, and end of the assimilation window, respectively, it is found that the scheme with the analysis time in the middle of the window outperforms the others, on the whole. Moreover, the advantage of this scheme is more pronounced when a longer assimilation window is adopted or more observations are assimilated. 展开更多
关键词 DRP-4dvar analysis-time tuning perfect-model assumption tangent-linear hypothesis
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A Simple Method of Calculating the Optimal Step Size in 4DVAR Technique
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作者 王云峰 伍荣生 +1 位作者 王元 潘益农 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2000年第3期433-444,共12页
In four—dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technology, how to calculate the optimal step size is always a very important and indeed difficult task. It is directly related to the computational efficienc... In four—dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technology, how to calculate the optimal step size is always a very important and indeed difficult task. It is directly related to the computational efficiency. In this research, a new method is proposed to calculate the optimal step size more effectively. Both nonlinear one—dimensional advection equation and two—dimensional inertial wave equation are used to test and compare the influence of different methods of the optimal step size calculations on the iteration steps, as well as the simulation results of 4DVAR processes. It is in evidence that the different methods have different influences. The calculating method is very important to determining whether the iteration is convergent or not and whether the convergence rate is large or small. If the calculating method of optimal step size is properly determined as demonstrated in this paper, then it can greatly enlarge the convergence rate and further greatly decrease the iteration steps. This research is meaningful since it not only makes an important improvement on 4DVAR theory, but also has useful practical application in improving the computational efficiency and saving the computational time. Key words 4DVAR - Optimal step size - Iterative convergence rate This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation under grants: 49735180 and 49675259, the “973 Project? CHERES(G 1998040907), the Project of Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK99020), and the Project Sponsored by the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars. 展开更多
关键词 4dvar Optimal step size Iterative convergence rate
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A Local Implementation of the POD-Based Ensemble 4DVar with R-Localization
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作者 TIAN Xiang-Jun 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2014年第1期11-16,共6页
The purpose of this paper is to provide a robust and flexible implementation of a proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method(PODEn4DVar) through Rlocalization.With ... The purpose of this paper is to provide a robust and flexible implementation of a proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method(PODEn4DVar) through Rlocalization.With R-localization,the implementation of the local PODEn4DVar analysis can be coded for parallelization with enhanced assimilation precision.The feasibility and effectiveness of the PODEn4DVar local implementation with R-localization are demonstrated in a two-dimensional shallow-water equation model with simulated observations(OSSEs) in comparison with the original version of the PODEn4DVar with B-localization and that without localization.The performance of the PODEn4DVar with localization shows a significant improvement over the scheme with no localization,particularly under the imperfect model scenario.Moreover,the R-localization scheme is capable of outperforming the Blocalization case to a certain extent.Further,the assimilation experiments also demonstrate that PODEn4DVar with R-localization is most efficient due to its easy parallel implementation. 展开更多
关键词 PODEn4dvar R 本地化 本地实现
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Strategies to Overcome Filter Divergence in the DRP-4-DVar Approach
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作者 LIUJuan-Juan WANG Bin 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2011年第3期136-138,共3页
This paper discusses an important issue related to filter divergence in the dimension-reduced projection,four-dimensional variational data assimilation(DRP-4-DVar) approach.Idealized experiments with the Lorenz-96 mod... This paper discusses an important issue related to filter divergence in the dimension-reduced projection,four-dimensional variational data assimilation(DRP-4-DVar) approach.Idealized experiments with the Lorenz-96 model over a period of 200 days showed that the amplitudes of the root mean square errors(RMSEs) reached the same levels as those of the state variables after approximately 100 days because of the accumulation of sampling errors following the cycle of assimilation.Strategies to reduce sampling errors are critical to ensure the quality of ensemble-based assimilation.Numerical experiments showed that localization and reducing observational errors can alleviate,but cannot completely overcome,the filter divergence in the DRP-4-DVar approach,while the method of perturbing observations and the inflation technique can efficiently eliminate the filter divergence problem. 展开更多
关键词 分歧问题 DRP 四维变分资料同化 筛选 抽样误差 数值实验 过滤方法 状态变量
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Application of multigrid NLS-4DVar in radar radial velocity data assimilation with WRF-ARW
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作者 ZHANG Lu TIAN Xiangjun ZHANG Hongqin 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2019年第6期409-416,共8页
非线性最小二乘法的集合四维变分同化方法是一种结合了集合卡尔曼滤波和四维变分同化优势的混合同化方法。引入多重网格策略的NLS-4DVar方法不仅可以避免使用伴随模式,而且可以从大尺度到小尺度依次修正误差得到精度更高的分析场。本文... 非线性最小二乘法的集合四维变分同化方法是一种结合了集合卡尔曼滤波和四维变分同化优势的混合同化方法。引入多重网格策略的NLS-4DVar方法不仅可以避免使用伴随模式,而且可以从大尺度到小尺度依次修正误差得到精度更高的分析场。本文将高效的多重网格策略的NLS-4DVar方法应用于雷达径向风数据同化中。通过一组基于ARW-WRF模式的观测系统模拟试验检验该方法对雷达径向风的同化能力和同化效率。试验结果显示,同化雷达径向风数据后,初始场得到明显改进且24小时累计降水预报精度有大幅度提高。与此同时,多重网格策略的NLS-4DVar方法还减少了计算代价,明显提高了计算效率。 展开更多
关键词 强降水 多重网格策略NLS 4dvar方法 雷达径向风同化
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Toward development of the 4Dvar data assimilation system in the Bering Sea:reconstruction of the mean dynamic ocean topography
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作者 Gleb Panteleev Dmitri Nechaev +3 位作者 Vladimir Luchin Phyllis Stabeno Nikolai Maximenko Motoyoshi Ikeda 《Chinese Journal of Polar Science》 2008年第2期123-134,共12页
The Bering Sea circulation is derived as a variational inverse of hydrographic profiles( temperature and salinity) , atmospheric climatologies and historical observation of ocean curents. The important result of thi... The Bering Sea circulation is derived as a variational inverse of hydrographic profiles( temperature and salinity) , atmospheric climatologies and historical observation of ocean curents. The important result of this study is estimate of the mean climatological sea surface height (SSH) that can be used as a reference for satellite altimetry sea level anomaly data in the Bering Sea region. Numerical experiments reveal that, when combined with satellite altimetry, the obtained reference SSH effectively constrains a realistic reconstruction of the Amukta Pass circulation. 展开更多
关键词 Bering Sea mean dynamic ocean topography 4dvar data assimilation system.
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Construction and Application of a Regional Kilometer-Scale Carbon Source and Sink Assimilation Inversion System(CCMVS-R) 被引量:1
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作者 Lifeng Guo Xiaoye Zhang +8 位作者 Junting Zhong Deying Wang Changhong Miao Licheng Zhao Zijiang Zhou Jie Liao Bo Hu Lingyun Zhu Yan Chen 《Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第2期263-275,共13页
CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate ... CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events.In 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by 2060.This commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)systems.The MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in 2019.However,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of development.Here,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)model.Our China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange.Atmospheric CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to 0.The total anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province in 2019 from the assimilated inversions were approximately 28.6%(17%-38%)higher than the mean of five emission inventories using the bottomup method,showing that the top-down CCMVS-R system can obtain more comprehensive information on anthropogenic carbon emissions. 展开更多
关键词 CCMVS-R Regional carbon assimilation system Anthropogenic carbon emissions CO_(2) POD 4dvar
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Assimilation of Ocean Surface Wind Data by the HY-2B Satellite in GRAPES: Impacts on Analyses and Forecasts
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作者 Jincheng WANG Xingwei JIANG +4 位作者 Xueshun SHEN Youguang ZHANG Xiaomin WAN Wei HAN Dan WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第1期44-61,共18页
The ocean surface wind(OSW)data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface,thus playing an important... The ocean surface wind(OSW)data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface,thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of global medium-range weather prediction models.To improve the forecast skills of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Global Forecast System(GRAPES_GFS),the HY-2B OSW data is assimilated into the GRAPES_GFS four-dimensional variational assimilation(4DVAR)system.Then,the impacts of the HY-2B OSW data assimilation on the analyses and forecasts of GRAPES_GFS are analyzed based on one-month assimilation cycle experiments.The results show that after assimilating the HY-2B OSW data,the analysis errors of the wind fields in the lower-middle troposphere(1000-600 hPa)of the tropics and the southern hemisphere(SH)are significantly reduced by an average rate of about 5%.The impacts of the HY-2B OSW data assimilation on the analysis fields of wind,geopotential height,and temperature are not solely limited to the boundary layer but also extend throughout the entire troposphere after about two days of cycling assimilation.Furthermore,assimilating the HY-2B OSW data can significantly improve the forecast skill of wind,geopotential height,and temperature in the troposphere of the tropics and SH. 展开更多
关键词 HY-2B ocean surface wind 4dvar GRAPES-GFS medium-range weather forecast
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基于雷达资料四维变分同化和三维云模式对一次超级单体风暴发展维持热动力机制的模拟分析 被引量:37
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作者 陈明轩 王迎春 +1 位作者 肖现 高峰 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第5期929-944,共16页
利用三维云尺度数值模式和雷达资料快速更新循环四维变分同化(4DVar)技术,对京津冀地区一次强降水超级单体风暴发展演变的热动力机制进行了数值模拟和结果分析,并结合雷达、加密探空和自动站资料,揭示了快速变化的近风暴大气环境及风暴... 利用三维云尺度数值模式和雷达资料快速更新循环四维变分同化(4DVar)技术,对京津冀地区一次强降水超级单体风暴发展演变的热动力机制进行了数值模拟和结果分析,并结合雷达、加密探空和自动站资料,揭示了快速变化的近风暴大气环境及风暴自身的热动力三维特征对超级单体形成、发展和演变的影响。雷达回波观测分析表明,这是一次由多单体合并加强为"右移"超级单体而后又分裂为多单体的风暴过程。在超级单体形成到发展成熟阶段,风暴前方中低层环境垂直风切变逐渐加强,为超级单体中稳定旋转上升气流和中气旋的形成创造了重要条件。模拟的风矢端图也指示出,风暴前方的低层环境风随高度存在显著的顺时针切变,有利于超级单体风暴的持续发展和右移。与风暴相伴随的冷池以及冷池出流(阵风锋)与低层环境风场的辐合均不断增强,风暴前沿的气流上升明显,低层暖湿空气在强的风切变作用下旋转上升进入风暴内,使得超级单体得以维持和加强。在超级单体消散分裂为多单体阶段,模拟的热动力特征均不利于其进一步发展。此时,中低层切变明显减弱,风矢端图具有明显的有利于多单体风暴发展的"直线型"特征。低层扰动温度显示冷池进一步增强并明显扩展,其扩展速度快于风暴的发展移动速度,冷池前沿伸展到风暴前面。低层风场指示冷池出流(阵风锋)更加强烈且存在明显的"前冲"特征,并开始"脱离"风暴前沿。风暴前方的辐合上升也明显减弱。基于模拟结果计算了与超级单体发展密切相关的风暴相对环境螺旋度(SREH)、风暴整体理查森数(SBRN)和风暴强度(SS)。结果显示,在超级单体形成和发展成熟阶段,SREH>150m2/s2,SBRN<45,SS>0.4,而在超级单体形成之前和接近消散阶段,SREH<150m2/s2,SBRN>45,SS<0.4。上述结果与前人研究结论基本一致,反映出模拟的SREH、SBRN和SS对该超级单体风暴过程具有明显指示意义。 展开更多
关键词 雷达资料 4dvar 云模式 超级单体 热动力机制
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四维变分方法反演低层风场能力研究 被引量:37
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作者 牟容 刘黎平 +1 位作者 许小永 庄薇 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2007年第1期11-18,I0001,共9页
从新一代天气雷达径向速度资料中反演出可靠的三维风场对提高新一代天气雷达的应用水平有重要的作用,将雷达直接观测的径向速度转换成台站预报员更为熟悉的风场结构,对识别中小尺度信息有很大帮助。为此该文对4DVAR同化技术在风场业... 从新一代天气雷达径向速度资料中反演出可靠的三维风场对提高新一代天气雷达的应用水平有重要的作用,将雷达直接观测的径向速度转换成台站预报员更为熟悉的风场结构,对识别中小尺度信息有很大帮助。为此该文对4DVAR同化技术在风场业务反演中应用的可能性进行了探讨,利用广州、济南新一代多普勒天气雷达观测资料,从是否加入云模式湿过程以及迭代次数、计算时间、背景场、初始场、分辨率和反演区域等方面对干模式的4DVAR系统进行了讨论,并从风场结构、均方根差别等方面对反演结果进行分析。多种试验表明,干模式的4DVAR系统与湿的云模式反演结果差异不大。模式的初始场和背景场对反演结果具有较高的敏感性,利用前一时次的反演结果作为背景场迭代15~20次的干模式结果可以很好地在业务上试运行,对台站预报员提高中小尺度天气预报的准确率有着很重要的作用。 展开更多
关键词 多普勒雷达 4dvar 低层风场 准业务试验
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京津冀一次飑线过程的精细时空演变特征分析 被引量:23
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作者 刘莲 王迎春 陈明轩 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2015年第12期1433-1446,共14页
基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)分析系统,利用京津冀6部新一代多普勒天气雷达资料和区域(约700个)自动站资料对2013年7月30—31日京津冀地区一次飑线系统在移动过程中系统不同部位的热动力结构及其环境场时空演变特征进行... 基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)分析系统,利用京津冀6部新一代多普勒天气雷达资料和区域(约700个)自动站资料对2013年7月30—31日京津冀地区一次飑线系统在移动过程中系统不同部位的热动力结构及其环境场时空演变特征进行了分析。结果表明,这次飑线过程是在有利的天气尺度背景形势下发生发展的。飑线形成初期,其中段和南段前部有强的暖湿空气辐合上升运动,并受到强的中层垂直风切变的影响,且在飑线中南段两侧水平正负涡度近似平衡,这种环境下,十分有利于飑线中南段的组织发展。而北段前部受弱的中层垂直风切变及辐散下沉运动影响,不利于北段系统有组织的发展;随着飑线移动下山,中段和南段前部在较强的中层垂直风切变控制下,出现强的暖湿空气辐合上升运动,且存在偏南暖湿气流稳定输送到系统上升运动区中,这对飑线系统中段和南段自身对流单体新生及高度组织化极为有利。随着飑线演变为弓形回波,中段环境场仍维持强的中层垂直风切变且位于冷池出流边界的控制之下,由于地形强迫效应,有利于弓形回波前沿低空偏南暖湿气流的辐合上升,是飑线下山迅速增强并发展成弓形回波,且稳定维持的主要原因。 展开更多
关键词 分析系统 飑线 时空演变 雷达 4dvar
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