The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using...The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using retrospective prediction datasets from the seasonal forecasting models in four operational centers worldwide.Results show that the model predictability of the leading AAM modes is sensitive to how they are defined in different seasonal sequences,especially for the second mode.The first AAM mode,from various seasonal sequences,coincides with the El Niño phase transition in the eastern-central Pacific.The second mode,initialized from boreal summer and autumn,leads El Niño by about one year but can exist during the decay phase of El Niño when initialized from boreal winter and spring.Our findings hint that ENSO,as an early signal,is conducive to better performance of model predictions in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the leading AAM modes.Still,the persistence barrier of ENSO in spring leads to poor forecasting skills of spatial features.The multimodel ensemble(MME)mean shows some advantage in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the AAM modes but does not provide a significant improvement in predicting its temporal features compared to the best individual models in predicting its temporal features.The BCC_CSM1.1M shows promising skill in predicting the two AAM indices associated with two leading AAM modes.The predictability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for AAM prediction in operational and climate services.展开更多
The Western Qinling Orogen(WQO) is characterized by voluminous distribution of Indosinian granitoids,the formation of which provides an important window to unravel the geochemical and geodynamic evolution and associat...The Western Qinling Orogen(WQO) is characterized by voluminous distribution of Indosinian granitoids,the formation of which provides an important window to unravel the geochemical and geodynamic evolution and associated metallogeny.Here we investigate a group of intrusions termed "Five Golden Flowers" based on petrological,geochemical,zircon U-Pb geochronological and Lu-Hf isotopic studies on the granitoids and their mafic microgranular enclaves(MMEs).Our results show that these intrusions are genetically divided into two types,namely,magma-mixing and highly fractionated.The Jiaochangba,Lujing,Zhongchuan,and Luchuba granitoids are biotite monzogranites(220±0.8 Ma to 217±2.6 Ma) with abundant coeval MMEs(220±.1 Ma to 217±2.7 Ma).The rocks contain moderate to high SiO2,high MgO,Rb,Sr,Ba,and Th contents,but low TiO2,P2 O5,and Sc values,A/CNK of <1.1,and a range of εHf(t) values of-11.7 to +2.23 with corresponding TDM2values of 1967-1228 Ma.The MMEs possess K-feldspar megacrysts,abundant acicular apatites,and show lopsided textures.They have lower SiO2,Al2 O3,and Th contents,but higher MgO,TiO2,and Sc,with εHf(t) values of-18.0 to +3.18 and TDM1 of 849-720 Ma.The data indicate that the MMEs were derived from a magma sourced from the enriched lithospheric mantle.We suggest that these host granitoids were produced by partial melting of latePaleoproterozoic to early-Mesoproterozoic lower crust with the involvement of Neoproterozoic SCLM-derived mafic magmas.The Baijiazhuang pluton is dominantly composed of leucogranite(muscovite granite and twomica monzogranite,216±1.5 Ma) without MMEs.The rocks are peraluminous with high A/CNK(1.06-1.27).Compared with the other four granitoids,the Baijiazhuang leucogranite shows higher SiO2 content,markedly lower concentrations of TiO2,MgO,Al2 O3,CaO,and Fe2 O3T,and lower LREE/HREE and(La/Yb)N values.These leucogranites are also rich in Rb,Th,and U,and display marked depletions in Ba,Sr,Ti,and Eu,indicating that they experienced significant fractionation.Zircon εHf(t) values(-10.2 to-3.27) and TDM2(1868-1424 Ma),as well as the Nb/Ta and K2 O/Na2 O values are similar to the other four granitoids,indicating that they are likely to have been derived from a similar source;with sediments playing only a minor role in the magma generation.The low contents of Yb and Y suggest that their partial melting was controlled by garnets and micrographic texture of K-feldspar reflects high-temperature melting through undercooling.Based on the above features,we infer that the Baijiazhuang leucogranite likely represents the product of high degree fractionation of the I-type biotite monzogranite magma which generated the other four granitoids at relatively high temperatures,within magma chambers at mid-crust depths.We propose that the granitoid suite was formed in the transitional setting from synto post-collision during the collisional orogeny between the SCB and NCB,following break-off of the subducted South China Block lithosphere during 220-216 Ma.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242206,41975094 and 41905062)the National Key Research and Development Program on monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(Grant Nos.2017YFC1502302 and 2018YFC1506005)+1 种基金the Basic Research and Operational Special Project of CAMS(Grant No.2021Z007)the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China.
文摘The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using retrospective prediction datasets from the seasonal forecasting models in four operational centers worldwide.Results show that the model predictability of the leading AAM modes is sensitive to how they are defined in different seasonal sequences,especially for the second mode.The first AAM mode,from various seasonal sequences,coincides with the El Niño phase transition in the eastern-central Pacific.The second mode,initialized from boreal summer and autumn,leads El Niño by about one year but can exist during the decay phase of El Niño when initialized from boreal winter and spring.Our findings hint that ENSO,as an early signal,is conducive to better performance of model predictions in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the leading AAM modes.Still,the persistence barrier of ENSO in spring leads to poor forecasting skills of spatial features.The multimodel ensemble(MME)mean shows some advantage in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the AAM modes but does not provide a significant improvement in predicting its temporal features compared to the best individual models in predicting its temporal features.The BCC_CSM1.1M shows promising skill in predicting the two AAM indices associated with two leading AAM modes.The predictability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for AAM prediction in operational and climate services.
基金This study was jointly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41730426,41421002,41272092 and 41803039)MOST Special Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Continental Dynamics,Northwest University,China
文摘The Western Qinling Orogen(WQO) is characterized by voluminous distribution of Indosinian granitoids,the formation of which provides an important window to unravel the geochemical and geodynamic evolution and associated metallogeny.Here we investigate a group of intrusions termed "Five Golden Flowers" based on petrological,geochemical,zircon U-Pb geochronological and Lu-Hf isotopic studies on the granitoids and their mafic microgranular enclaves(MMEs).Our results show that these intrusions are genetically divided into two types,namely,magma-mixing and highly fractionated.The Jiaochangba,Lujing,Zhongchuan,and Luchuba granitoids are biotite monzogranites(220±0.8 Ma to 217±2.6 Ma) with abundant coeval MMEs(220±.1 Ma to 217±2.7 Ma).The rocks contain moderate to high SiO2,high MgO,Rb,Sr,Ba,and Th contents,but low TiO2,P2 O5,and Sc values,A/CNK of <1.1,and a range of εHf(t) values of-11.7 to +2.23 with corresponding TDM2values of 1967-1228 Ma.The MMEs possess K-feldspar megacrysts,abundant acicular apatites,and show lopsided textures.They have lower SiO2,Al2 O3,and Th contents,but higher MgO,TiO2,and Sc,with εHf(t) values of-18.0 to +3.18 and TDM1 of 849-720 Ma.The data indicate that the MMEs were derived from a magma sourced from the enriched lithospheric mantle.We suggest that these host granitoids were produced by partial melting of latePaleoproterozoic to early-Mesoproterozoic lower crust with the involvement of Neoproterozoic SCLM-derived mafic magmas.The Baijiazhuang pluton is dominantly composed of leucogranite(muscovite granite and twomica monzogranite,216±1.5 Ma) without MMEs.The rocks are peraluminous with high A/CNK(1.06-1.27).Compared with the other four granitoids,the Baijiazhuang leucogranite shows higher SiO2 content,markedly lower concentrations of TiO2,MgO,Al2 O3,CaO,and Fe2 O3T,and lower LREE/HREE and(La/Yb)N values.These leucogranites are also rich in Rb,Th,and U,and display marked depletions in Ba,Sr,Ti,and Eu,indicating that they experienced significant fractionation.Zircon εHf(t) values(-10.2 to-3.27) and TDM2(1868-1424 Ma),as well as the Nb/Ta and K2 O/Na2 O values are similar to the other four granitoids,indicating that they are likely to have been derived from a similar source;with sediments playing only a minor role in the magma generation.The low contents of Yb and Y suggest that their partial melting was controlled by garnets and micrographic texture of K-feldspar reflects high-temperature melting through undercooling.Based on the above features,we infer that the Baijiazhuang leucogranite likely represents the product of high degree fractionation of the I-type biotite monzogranite magma which generated the other four granitoids at relatively high temperatures,within magma chambers at mid-crust depths.We propose that the granitoid suite was formed in the transitional setting from synto post-collision during the collisional orogeny between the SCB and NCB,following break-off of the subducted South China Block lithosphere during 220-216 Ma.
