Simulation Analysis on A Rainstorm in Guizhou and Numerical Test about the Terrain Impact

A rainstorm caused by mesoscale convective system (MCS) in Guizhou Province in June 25-26 in 2005 was simulated with the MM5 model. Based on the good simulated results of the MCS developing and the clouds physics process, and by means of reducing the height of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and cutting off the middle-east of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau on the simulated tests, the question as how the ladder terrain on the west of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau impact on the rainstorm of Guizhou was studied. The analysis results showed that the second ladder terrain of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau only affected the development of convective clouds on its backward position,and hardly affected the rain on its upward. The whole terrain of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau had a distinct impact not only on the windward slope rainfall of the west of the plateau, but also on the rainfall distribution, intensity and continuing time of the convective clouds on the middle-east of the plateau.

MM-CBMeMBer滤波器跟踪多机动目标

多模型(Multiple Model,MM)概率假设密度(Probability Hypothesis Density,PHD)滤波器能同时估计机动目标个数及状态,但其序贯蒙特卡罗(Sequential Monte Carlo,SMC)实现运用粒子聚类算法提取目标状态,不仅引入额外计算量,且可能导致目标丢失。针对这一问题,该文提出一种基于多模型的势平衡无偏多目标多伯努利(Multiple Model Cardinality Balanced Multiple target Multi-Bernoulli,MM-CBMeMBer)滤波器,在每次扫描杂波数低于20,检测概率大于0.9的环境中,该方法利用一组伯努利参数近似机动目标状态的后验概率,并通过对伯努利参数的简单运算估计出目标状态,有效地避免了常规聚类算法。仿真结果表明,该方法与多模型概率假设密度滤波器相比,表征估计误差的最优子模型分配距离明显降低。

Multiple model efficient particle filter based track-before-detect for maneuvering weak targets

It is a tough problem to jointly detect and track a weak target, and it becomes even more challenging when the target is maneuvering. The above problem is formulated by using the Bayesian theory and a multiple model(MM) based filter is proposed. The filter presented uses the MM method to accommodate the multiple motions that a maneuvering target may travel under by adding a random variable representing the motion model to the target state. To strengthen the efficiency performance of the filter,the target existence variable is separated from the target state and the existence probability is calculated in a more efficient way. To examine the performance of the MM based approach, a typical track-before-detect(TBD) scenario with a maneuvering target is used for simulations. The simulation results indicate that the MM based filter proposed has a good performance in joint detecting and tracking of a weak and maneuvering target, and it is more efficient than the general MM method.

t/k-fault diagnosis algorithm of n-dimensional hypercube network based on the MM*model

Compared with accurate diagnosis, the system’s selfdiagnosing capability can be greatly increased through the t/kdiagnosis strategy at most k vertexes to be mistakenly identified as faulty under the comparison model, where k is typically a small number. Based on the Preparata, Metze, and Chien(PMC)model, the n-dimensional hypercube network is proved to be t/kdiagnosable. In this paper, based on the Maeng and Malek(MM)*model, a novel t/k-fault diagnosis(1≤k≤4) algorithm of ndimensional hypercube, called t/k-MM*-DIAG, is proposed to isolate all faulty processors within the set of nodes, among which the number of fault-free nodes identified wrongly as faulty is at most k. The time complexity in our algorithm is only O(2~n n~2).

Fog simulation using a mesoscale model in and around the Yodo River Basin,Japan

In this study,fog simulations were conducted using the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) in and around the Yodo River Basin,Japan.The purpose is to investigate the MM5 performance of fog simulation for long-term periods.The simulations were performed for January,February,March,and July,2005 with a coarse 3-kin and a nested fine 1-km grid domains. Results of the simulations were compared with data from ten meteorological observatories,fog sampling site in Mt.Rokko,and visibility measurem...

Characteristics and Nonlinear Growth of the Singular Vector Related to a Heavy Rainfall Case over the Korean Peninsula

In this study, singular vectors related to a heavy rainfall case over the Korean Peninsula were calculated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model （MM5） adjoint modeling system. Tangent linear and adjoint models include moist physical processes, and a moist basic state and a moist total energy norm were used for the singular-vector calculations. The characteristics and nonlinear growth of the first singular vector were analyzed, focusing on the relationship between the basic state and the singular vector. The horizontal distribution of the initial singular vector was closely related to the baroclinicity index and the moisture availability of the basic state. The temperature-component energy at a lower level was dominant at the initial time, and the kinetic energy at upper levels became dominant at the final time in the energy profile of the singular vector. The nonlinear growth of the singular vector appropriately reflects the temporal variations in the basic state. The moisture-component energy at lower levels was dominant at earlier times, indicating continuous moisture transport in the basic state. There were a large amount of precipitation and corresponding latent heat release after that period because the continuous moisture transport created favorable conditions for both convective and nonconvective precipitation. The vertical propagation of the singular-vector energy was caused by precipitation and the corresponding latent heating in the basic state.

Variational Data Assimilation Experiments of Mei-Yu Front Rainstorms in China

The numerical forecasts of mei-yu front rainstorms in China has been an important issue. The intensity and pattern of the frontal rainfall are greatly influenced by the initial fields of the numerical model. The 4-dimensional variational data assimilation technology (4DVAR) can effectively assimilate all kinds of observed data, including rainfall data at the observed stations, so that the initial fields and the precipitation forecast can both be greatly improved. The non-hydrostatic meso-scale model (MM5) and its adjoint model are used to study the development of the mei-yu front rainstorm from 1200 UTC 25 June to 0600 UTC 26 June 1999. By numerical simulation experiments and assimilation experiments, the T106 data and the observed 6-hour rainfall data are assimilated. The influences of many factors, such as the choice of the assimilated variables and the weighting coefficient, on the precipitation forecast results are studied. The numerical results show that 4DVAR is valuable and important to mei-yu front rainfall prediction.

Accuracy analysis of a single-fault Markov model for FADEC system

Time-limited dispatching(TLD)analysis of the full authority digital engine control(FADEC)systems is an important part of the aircraft system safety analysis and a necessary task for the certification of commercial aircraft and aeroengines.In the time limited dispatch guidance document ARP5107B,a single-fault Markov model(MM)approach is proposed for TLD analysis.However,ARP5107B also requires that the loss of thrust control(LOTC)rate error calculated by applying the single-fault MM must be less than 5%when performing airworthiness certification.Firstly,the sources of accuracy errors in three kinds of MM are analyzed and specified through a case study of the general FADEC system,and secondly a two-fault MM considering maintenance policy is established through analyzing and calculating the expected repair time when two related faults happen.Finally,a specific FADEC system is given to study on the influence factors of accuracy error in the single-fault MM,and the results show that the accuracy error of the single-fault MM decreases with the increase of short or long prescribed dispatch time,and the range values of short time(ST)and long time(LT)are determined to satisfy the requirement of accuracy error within 5%.

An evaporation duct prediction model coupled with the MM5

Evaporation duct is an abnormal refractive phenomenon in the marine atmosphere boundary layer. It has been generally accepted that the evaporation duct prominently affects the performance of the electronic equipment over the sea because of its wide distribution and frequent occurrence. It has become a research focus of the navies all over the world. At present, the diagnostic models of the evaporation duct are all based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, with only differences in the flux and character scale calculations in the surface layer. These models are applicable to the stationary and uniform open sea areas without considering the alongshore effect. This paper introduces the nonlinear factor a and the gust wind item wg into the Babin model, and thus extends the evaporation duct diagnostic model to the offshore area under extremely low wind speed. In addition, an evaporation duct prediction model is designed and coupled with the fifth generation mesoscale model （MMS）. The tower observational data and radar data at the Pingtan island of Fujian Province on May 25-26, 2002 were used to validate the forecast results. The outputs of the prediction model agree with the observations from 0 to 48 h. The relative error of the predicted evaporation duct height is 19.3% and the prediction results are consistent with the radar detection.

Diagnosis of a Severe Rainstorm Event Induced by Eastly Wave and Vortex in Off Southeast Coast of China

Using the NCEP reanalysis at 1°×1° resolution in conjunction with satellite imagery,a study is undertaken of easterly wave related rainstorm events on August 3~4,2001 in seaboards between northern Fujian and southern Zhejiang,expounding the scheme for computing helicity,and exploring the rainstorm evolution and the genesis of the Yandang mountains-triggered a meso-vortex(Duan and Chen,2005) by means of helicity and Q vector divergence.Besides,MM5V2 is employed to simulate the easterly wave caused meso-vorte...

IMPROVED SCHEME OF AXISYMMETRIC TYPHOON BOGUS MODEL AND ITS IMPACT ON NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON NOCKTEN (NO.0405)

There is distinct difference in the tangential wind profile between different typhoons in the western North Pacific. At present, only two parameters, maximum wind and radius of maximum wind, are used in NCAR-AFWA bogus for MM5 mesoscale numerical model. As a result, sometimes the outer structure of typhoon cannot be described accurately. The tangential wind profile of NCAR-AFWA bogus is improved by introducing radii of 25.7 m/s and 15.4 m/s, and then the track and intensity of Typhoon Nockten (No.0425) are simulated. The results show that the simulations of track and intensity of typhoon both have been improved by simultaneously introducing the radii in the tangential wind profile of typhoon bogus. At the same time, there is improvement in the gale wind range of the typhoon simulated.

Numerical Simulation of the Airflow within a Canopy Using a 3D Canopy Structure

Canopy architecture of windbrpak is vital in agriculture, meteorological and ecological applications. In this study, computational fluid dynamics （CFD） and field experiments were used to investigate the flow characteristics and flow resistance through vegetation canopies with several different leaf area densities （ Lad ）. Compared with traditional modelling approaches, the present model introduced 3D architecture of the tree that contained a hard trunk, branches and artificial leaves to model the effect of leaves and the other parts of the canopy on airflow. Visual basic application （VBA） produced the 3D architecture of canopy. Simulations were made with the full closure model （FCM） and microcosmic model （MM）. Canopies L.~ used in the simulations were 7,76, 18, 12 and 25, 89 m-1. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the contour of velocity （U） and turbulent kinetic energy （k） of two models in different leaf area densities, comparing the simulation results with experimental data/other works and investigate the real effects of the canopy on the airflow distribution. Results are encouraging, compared with the FCM, U and k of MM profiles qualitatively agree better with other works. Therefore, the model and method are recommended for future use in simulating turbulent flows in forest canopies.

MM CALCULATIONS OF THE METAL-PROTEIN MODEL COMPLEXES Ⅰ.MOLECULAR FORCE FIELD FOR COBALT COMPEXES

Cobalt-protein complexes play an important role in biochemical processes.The structure of the model molecule,Co(H_2O)_3SO_4(phen) has been studied by molecular mechanics.The molecular force field (MM2) parameters have been developed for the particular class of the complexes.

The Complementarity Effect for Cdc25 Phosphatase Inhibitors

Cdc25 phosphatase have been regarded as attractive drug targets for anticancer therapies due to the correlation of their over expression with a wide variety of cancers. They are key regulators of cell cycle progression and play a central role in the checkpoint response to DNA damage. The role of Cdc25 s in cancer has become increasingly evident in recent years. More than 20 studies of patient samples are from diverse cancers show significant overexpression of Cdc25 with frequent correlation to clinical outcome. Recent screening and design efforts have yielded novel classes of inhibitors that show specificity for the Cdc25 s over other phosphatases and cause cell cycle arrest in vivo. Until now, quinone derivatives are among the most efficient inhibitors of Cdc25 phosphatase activity. Our research objective is to study the inhibition of the phosphathase Cdc25 through the molecular modeling methods.

Data-driven fault diagnosis of control valve with missing data based on modeling and deep residual shrinkage network

A control valve is one of the most widely used machines in hydraulic systems.However,it often works in harsh environments and failure occurs from time to time.An intelligent and robust control valve fault diagnosis is therefore important for operation of the system.In this study,a fault diagnosis based on the mathematical model(MM)imputation and the modified deep residual shrinkage network(MDRSN)is proposed to solve the problem that data-driven models for control valves are susceptible to changing operating conditions and missing data.The multiple fault time-series samples of the control valve at different openings are collected for fault diagnosis to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.The effects of the proposed method in missing data imputation and fault diagnosis are analyzed.Compared with random and k-nearest neighbor(KNN)imputation,the accuracies of MM-based imputation are improved by 17.87%and 21.18%,in the circumstances of a20.00%data missing rate at valve opening from 10%to 28%.Furthermore,the results show that the proposed MDRSN can maintain high fault diagnosis accuracy with missing data.

g-Good-neighbor conditional diagnosability of star graph networks under PMC model and MM＊ model

Diagnosability of a multiprocessor system is an important study topic. S. L. Peng, C. K. Lin, J. J. M. Tan, and L. H. Hsu [Appl. Math. Comput., 2012, 218（21）： 10406-10412] proposed a new measure for fault diagnosis of the system, which is called the 9-good-neighbor conditional diagnosability that restrains every fault-free node containing at least 9 fault-free neighbors. As a famous topological structure of intereonnection networks, the n-dimensional star graph Sn has many good properties. In this paper, we establish the 9_good-neighbor conditional diagnosability of Sn under the PMC model and MM＊ model.

Numerical Simulation of Wind and Temperature Fields over Beijing Area in Summer

The non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5V3 is used to simulate the wind andtemperature fields of the atmospheric boundary layer over Beijing area in summer with the meshresolution of 1 km. The simulation results show that the numerical model can successfully simulatethe urban heat island effect and the wind and temperature fields which are affected by thecomplicated topography and urban heat island. The results show that: (1) the west area (from Haidianto Fengtai Districts) is always the high temperature center of Beijing, where the surfacetemperature is about 6 K higher than the other suburbs; and (2) due to the unique topography thewind of Beijing area during the daytime is southern anabatic wind and at the night is northernkatabatic wind. The results comparing well with the data from surface observation stations validatethe accuracy of the simulation.

TYPHOON PROCESS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA

A severe typhoon Utor,occurring between July 3 and 8,2001,brought heavy rainfall,strong wind and storm surge.Utor was responsible for tremendous destruction and economic losses in Philippines,Taiwan and Guangdong.An air-sea model system （MM5 and Princeton Ocean Model（POM））was built to simulate meteorological dynamics and ocean circulation in the South China Sea（SCS）.In the POM the output of MM5 was used as the input data.With an increased number of vertical levels,a high-resolution planetary boundary layer scheme and updated landuse/vegetation data,the accuracy of computing wind,temperature and other meteorological fields are improved in near surface and upper levels in MM5 simulations.The simulated trajectory and wind speed of Utor are close to the observed results.The simulated distribution of rainfall is accorded well with measured data in the Pearl River Delta（PRD）area.At different meteorological stations in Hong Kong,the wind,temperature and sea surface pressure are well simulated.The simulated ocean surface current and surface temperature fields have an obvious rightward-biased response to the typhoon Utor,and the maximum velocity and the lowest temperature region appear in the 30 km of the right side of the typhoon track.The typhoon Utor could make the water 50m under the surface ocean unwell to surface and the ocean surface temperature decrease by about 2°C.

Theoretical Study on Co^3＋ in Aqueous Solution in Terms of ABEEM/MM Model

A detailed theoretical investigation on Co^3＋ hydration in aqueous solution has been carded out by means of molecular dynamics （MD） simulations based on the atom-bond electronegativity equalization method fused into molecular mechanics （ABEEM/MM）. The effective Co^3＋ ion-water potential has been constructed by fitting to ab initio structures and binding energies for ionic clusters. And then the ion-water interaction potential was applied in combination with the ABEEM-7P water model to molecular dynamics simulations of single Co^3＋（aq.） solution, managing to reproduce many experimental structural and dynamical properties of the solution. Here, not only the common properties （radial distribution function, angular distribution function and solvation energy） obtained for Co^3＋ in ABEEM-7P water solution were in good agreement with those from the experimental methods and other molecular dynamics simulations but also very interesting properties of charge distributions, geometries of water molecules, hydrogen bond, diffusion coefficients, vibrational spectra are investigated by ABEEM/MM model.

The g-Good-Neighbor Conditional Diagnosability of Locally Twisted Cubes

In the work of Peng et al.(Appl Math Comput 218(21):10406–10412,2012),a new measure was proposed for fault diagnosis of systems:namely g-goodneighbor conditional diagnosability,which requires that any fault-free vertex has at least g fault-free neighbors in the system.In this paper,we establish the g-goodneighbor conditional diagnosability of locally twisted cubes under the PMC model and the MM∗model.