Weather Events Associated with Strong Earthquakes and Seismic Swarms in Italy

This study discusses the possible relationship between potentially destructive seismic events,earthquake swarms,and intense weather events occurring in the same epicentral zone at time intervals ranging from one day to a few weeks.The objective of the present study is,therefore,to analyze the interaction between the lithosphere,atmosphere,and ionosphere in order to propose,prospectively,a new hydro-climatic model to be applied not only in Italy,where this research was carried out.The study concerns some of the most intense Italian earthquakes starting from 1920,with the destructive event in Lunigiana,in North Western Apennines,until the recent earthquake swarm that hit the Emilia-Romagna region followed,as in the cases analyzed in this research,by strong atmospheric disturbances.The recurrence associating seismic events with atmospheric precipitation allows us to propose some hypotheses about the triggering mechanism.In tectonically stressed areas,during pre-seismic and seismic phases,the release of gases from the ground and electrical charges near active faults is known.It is hypothesized that water condensation nuclei are carried by radon gas on atmospheric gases,also originating from cosmic rays in the upper atmosphere,generated by air ionization.

Temporo-spatial Characteristics of Swarm Distribution before Two Ms6.0 Earthquakes in the Tianshan Area,China and Their Application to Earthquake Prediction

The Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with M_S6.0 and Xinyuan-Hejing earthquake with M_S6. 6 successively occurred in Xinjiang on November 1,2011 and June 30,2012. Massive swarm activity was observed in a large area around the main shock epicenters before the two strong earthquakes. Main features are as follows:(1) The swarm activities not only increased significantly in number of earthquakes,but also presented a distinct swarm gap in spatial distribution,and the epicenters of the following strong earthquakes were all located in the swarm gap.(2) The duration of the swarm gap lasted longer,for 2-3 years.(3) The time-history characteristics of the swarms cumulative frequency indicates that swarm activity was quieter a few months before the main shocks. Finally,we discuss the results as well as the issues of their application in earthquake prediction.

2023年四川兴文Ms4.9震群震源机制分析

利用四川省及邻区数字地震台网的宽频带波形资料,基于CAP方法反演得到四川兴文4次Ms4.0以上地震的震源机制解,结合地质构造资料以及区域应力场的条件,初步分析了本次震群活动的发震构造。结果显示:本次震群活动未发生在地表出露的显著断层位置,认为发震构造可能是造成该区域褶皱构造的一系列隐伏断裂带。另外除Ms4.0地震为一次走滑型地震外,其余均属逆冲型地震,震源机制解类型存在差异。

Characteristics of Far-field Seismic Radiated Energy from the Five Earthquakes with MS≥5. 0 in the Earthquake Swarm Sequence of 2013,MS5. 8,Qianguo,Jilin Province,China

The Qianguo Ms5. 8 earthquake swarm of 2013 occurred in Qianguo, Jilin Province, China. There are five earthquakes with Ms ≥5. 0 in the Qianguo earthquake swarm, with magnitudes of Ms 5. 5, Ms 5. 0, Ms 5. 3, Ms 5. 8 and Ms 5. 0. In this study, the far-field seismic radiated energy characteristics of the earthquakes are compared based on the source spectrum and the ground motion spectrum of the earthquake swarm. The ground motion spectrum of the five earthquakes at Changchun seismic station （CN2）, which is the national standard station, is first investigated with the recorded ground motions, and then the far-field seismic radiated energy is calculated and combined with the relationships of the source spectrum to describe the variable characteristics of the Qianguo earthquake swarm. Research results indicate that the second earthquake （No. 2） with Ms5. 0 is the key event of the earthquake swarm, which occurred on October 31, the same day following the first Ms5. 5 earthquake （No.l）. In fact, the magnitude of event No. 2 decreased compared to event No.l, which did not agree with its large far-field seismic radiated energy. It needs to be pointed out that event No. 2 was the turning point event of the Qianguo earthquake swarm, as being a significant transition before the largest Ms5. 8 earthquake.

2021年茫崖M_(S)5.8地震前地震条带短临异常分析

1研究背景。大量震例研究表明,在中强地震孕育过程中,一定区域中小地震活动会出现由凌乱、分散的分布转为集中成带的现象(刘蒲雄等,1969),即地震条带。地震条带的震兆性在我国的地震预报实践备受重视,广泛运用于日常震情跟踪与中强地震危险性分析。

2011年云南盈江Ms5.8级地震序列的潮汐触发研究

采用Schuster谱和KORRECT统计方法,以2011年3月10日云南盈江Ms5.8级地震及其地震序列为研究对象,通过Schuster谱分析确定地震序列中存在的主要周期成分,并依据主要周期确定脉冲宽度,并利用KORRECT方法进一步验证地震序列主要周期的显著度。结果显示,2011年盈江Ms5.8级地震序列有明显的日潮和半日潮2种周期成分,并且这2种潮汐周期都检验出了类似正弦曲线的地震活动分布。说明2011年云南盈江地震序列主要受到日潮和半日潮的潮汐触发作用。

Relationship between the earthquake sequences of Tangshan and Xingtai and the three dimensional velocity structure──Discussion on predicting strong earthquakes of swarm-type

In this paper, based on the results of tomographic image of Tangshan and Xingtai areas, the relations between thecharacteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences and their three-dimensional velocity structures are studied.The research results indicate that:① Mosaic distribution of low-velocity bodies and high-velocity bodies, especially the existence of high-velocity bodies with large size in crust are the common basis of development of thetwo earthquake sequences. ② Scale, depth, and heterogeneity of high-velocity and low-velocity bodies are theimportant factors to effect the characteristic of earthquake sequences. ③ The depth of the high-velocity body inTangshan area is less than that in Xingtai area, which is the principal reason why the dominant focal depth and thebiggest focal depth of Tangshan earthquake sequence are less than Xingtai's. ④ The depth of the high-velocitybodies in Ninghe area is more than that in Tangshan-Luanxian area, which lead to the biggest magnitude and epicentral intensity are lower. These results could be helpful for predicting the main shock of strong swarm-typeearthquakes and later strong aftershocks.

地震崩塌滑坡危险性应急评估模型效果对比——以2022年6月1日M_(W)5.8芦山地震为例

震后快速准确获取同震崩塌滑坡的分布范围和评估可能的灾害损失对地震灾害应急救援和安置规划至关重要,2022年M_(W)5.8芦山地震为开展不同评价模型在区域地震崩塌滑坡的快速评估研究提供了宝贵窗口。文中选用基于机器学习方法建立的新一代中国地震滑坡危险性模型(下文称Xu2019模型)和简易Newmark模型进行了2022年M_(W)5.8芦山地震崩塌滑坡快速应急评估研究,基于本次事件的地震滑坡数据库(包括2352处崩塌滑坡,面积为5.51km^(2)),探讨2种模型的准确性和适用性。结果表明,基于Xu2019模型计算得到的崩塌滑坡面积为5.07km^(2),与实际崩塌滑坡面积十分吻合,而基于Newmark模型计算预测的崩塌滑坡面积达21.3km^(2)。从评估结果的空间分布上来看,2种模型预测的高危险区域基本一致,高危险区域基本位于发震断层的上盘。但Xu_(2019)模型对于西北区域(崩塌滑坡集中发育区)的危险性预测明显偏低,而Newmark模型对西南区域的危险性预测则明显偏高。总体而言,2种模型在区域同震崩塌滑坡分布预测及快速评估方面均具有较好的实用价值,但Newmark模型需要输入多项参数,而这些参数本身及人为获取方式均具有不确定性,导致该模型在实际应用中受人为影响因素较大。

The Characteristics of Earthquake Swarms in and around Jiangsu Province

This paper systematically analyzed 36 earthquake swarms in and around Jiangsu Province, summarized their characteristics and discussed the relationship between earthquske swarms and subsequent strong earthquakes. It also analyzed the judgment criteria for precursory earthquake swarms. Earthquake swarms in Jiangsu Province are concentrated in several areas. Most of them were of magnitude ML2.0～3.9. For most earthquake swarms, the number of earthquakes was less than 30. Time duration for about 55% of earthquake swarms was less than 15 days. The biggest magnitude of one earthquake swarm was not proportional to the number of earthquakes and time duration. There are 78% of earthquake swarms corresponded to the forthcoming earthquakes of M>4.6 in which there're 57% occured in one year, This shows a medium-and short-term criterion. Distance between earthquake swarm and future earthquake was distributed dispersedly. There were no earthquakes occurring in the same location as earthquake swarms. There was no good correlation between the magnitude and the corresponding rate of future earthquakes and the intensity of earthquake swarms. There was also no good correlation between the number of earthquakes in an earthquake swarm and the corresponding rate. The study also shows that it's better to use U-p or whole-combination to determine the type of earthquake swarm.

2021年3月30日西藏双湖M_(S)5.8和6月16日青海茫崖M_(S)5.8地震总结

2021年3月30日和6月16日,青藏块体先后发生双湖M_(S)5.8和茫崖M_(S)5.8地震,其中双湖M_(S)5.8地震发生在羌塘块体中部,茫崖M_(S)5.8地震发生在柴达木块体北缘。系统总结2次地震前出现的地震活动和地球物理观测异常,结果表明:①2次M_(S)5.8地震发生在青藏块体内部地球物理监测能力较弱区域,震前地球物理观测异常少,仅在茫崖地震前存在2项形变背景异常;②2次M_(S)5.8地震前地震活动异常较为突出,包括5级地震成组、固体潮调制比、地震发生率指数和Wq值异常,均为1年尺度内的中期异常;③2次地震序列均为主—余型,余震较少,具有不同的衰减特征。综合分析认为,2021年3月和6月,西藏和青海地区2次M_(S)5.8地震前存在的地震活动异常在一定程度上弥补了区域地球物理监测能力的不足,或许可为地震监测能力较弱地区的震情跟踪提供关键性参考依据。

Research on the Activity Characteristics of Small Earthquake Swarms in the Muli Area of Sichuan Province

In this article,we relocated the seismic source location of the earthquakes in the Muli area of Sichuan,inverted the focal mechanism of the larger earthquakes and analyzed the relationship between the water level of the Jinping reservoir and the frequency of the earthquake swarm. The results show that:( 1) The epicenters of the relocated small earthquake swarms are distributed in a seismic zone,and the earthquake focal depths were in the range of 0- 12 km.( 2) By analyzing the earthquake swarm spatial distribution,we found that the swarms were generated by one branch fault on the west of Xiaojinhe fault.( 3) The focal mechanism of the three earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4. 0 is significantly different,with the shallow source thrust events affected by vertical stress,and the strike-slip events are related to regional stress tectonic activity.

2024年1月1日能登半岛M_(W)7.5地震作为一个可能的“龙王”事件

本文试图探讨,从“龙王”理论的角度看,2024年1月1日日本能登半岛M_(W)7.5地震是否可被视为一次“龙王”事件.本文分析了日本气象厅(JMA)2004年以来的地震矩张量解目录,针对样本数不够多的情况,用“级序分析”方法确定这一M_(W)7.5事件是否显著偏离Gutenberg-Richter幂律.结果表明在2006至2024年期间,M_(W)7.5地震还不能被视为显著的“龙王”事件;但在2021至2024年期间,该地震作为一次“龙王”事件特点十分明显,这一结果似乎与2020年底以来出现了复杂的前兆行为的报道吻合,标志着“龙王”事件的某种可预报性.本文建议,根据以往的研究结果,对这次地震的震源过程和余震序列进行详细刻画,附之以对地震前兆的回溯性研究,或可有助于“地震龙王”理论本身的发展和地震预测研究的进步.本文还讨论了“黑天鹅”事件、“龙王”事件及“灰犀牛”事件的相互关系,这几个概念是近年来减灾领域讨论较多的概念.

2021年固原震群重定位及发震构造分析

通过初至P震相定位法测定了2021年固原震群中ML≥3.0地震的震源深度,同时根据多阶段定位和微震匹配定位方法对该震群序列进行了重定位,基于Snoke方法和HASH方法计算了震群序列中ML≥2.8地震的震源机制解,并根据gCAP方法反演了震群中最大的地震即2021年6月22日固原ML3.6地震的震源机制解及矩心深度,确定了ML≥2.8地震基于各种方法所得震源机制的中心解,然后根据重定位结果拟合了断层面,最后初步分析了固原震群的发震构造。结果表明:微震检测到901次ML0.0以上地震事件,约为区域地震台网原始目录的2.6倍,震群的震中区呈WNW向优势分布,长约8 km,宽约3 km,震源深度处于8—17 km之间,平均深度为13 km;ML≥2.8地震主要发生在震群序列12—14 km震源深度的相对密集区,其震源机制解均为走滑型,大多数地震略带一点逆冲分量,P轴优势方位近EW向,与六盘山地区的局部构造应力场主压应力轴方向基本一致。结合重定位、震源机制和断层面拟合认为,固原震群的主要发震构造可能是由两个WNW走向而倾向相反的隐伏断层控制,即NE倾向和SW倾向的断层构成了向上分叉的花状结构,其中ML≥2.8地震均位于不同倾向断层的交会部位,均具有左旋走滑的运动性质,整个震群序列的小震活动大体呈现以NE倾向断层活动为主、以SW倾向断层活动次之的特征。结合已有研究,发现震群序列处于六盘山地区上地壳底部厚约11 km的低速异常透镜体内,初步分析认为固原震群的孕震环境可能与深部流体作用有关。

2022年四川马尔康6.0级震群序列震源机制特征分析

采用近震全波形矩张量方法反演了2022年四川马尔康6.0级震群序列22次地震的震源机制解,结果显示:这22次地震全部为走滑型,断层面走向呈NNW和NE两个优势方向,断层面倾角近似直立,滑动角分布在0°和180°附近,P轴优势方位为NWW-SEE向,倾伏角接近水平,表明此次地震事件主要受区域NWW-SEE向水平挤压应力场控制。3次5级以上地震震源机制均与序列其他地震的总体震源机制差异较小,说明序列震源机制较为一致。结合精定位结果综合分析认为:马尔康震群属于多断层面触发性震群,3次5级以上地震是不同断裂的破裂事件,其中5.8级和6.0级地震发震断层面走向为NNW,为左旋走滑破裂事件;5.2级地震发震断层面走向为NE,为右旋走滑破裂事件,3个发震断层均以走滑错动为主,断层面近似直立。

2023年地震活动综述

概括性综述了2023年全球、中国内地及邻区和四川及邻区的地震时空强特征;分析了全球M_(S)≥6.0和中国内地及邻区M_(S)≥5.0地震活动特点;追踪了四川及邻区地震活动特征和四川区域内近年几次强震的余震区持续余震活动情况。结果显示:全球大震和强震频次环太平洋地震带高于欧亚地震带,地震强度欧亚地震带高于环太平洋地震带,全年M_(S)≥7.0地震时序呈现强弱相间特征;中国内地M_(S)≥5.0地震呈现西域、青藏、华北和华南Ⅰ级地块的分散活动,西域地块地震活动集中在南天山区域,青藏地块内部地震活动较周边活动偏弱,华北地块、华南地块及其边缘均发生M_(S)≥5.0地震;中国内地地震活动仍是西强东弱态势,西部区域的地震强度低于2022年的强度,东部区域的强度高于2022年的强度;台湾地区及其附近海域的强度明显低于2022年的强度,频次明显低于1900年以来的平均值;控制四川及邻区强震的巴颜喀拉和川滇2个Ⅱ级块体的区域地震活动强度和频次均偏弱,四川西部没有发生突出强震,仅有余震和M_(L)4.4震群活动,全年M_(L)≥4.0地震主要集中分布于华南块体的川东南区域,省内34次M_(L)≥4.0地震有19次分布在川东南区域,占全年地震总数的55.88%。

基于PCA-PSO-ELM模型预测地震死亡人数研究

筛选42个历史地震震例,对地震震级、震源深度、震中烈度、抗震设防烈度、震中烈度与抗震设防烈度之差(ΔL)、人口密度以及发震时刻7个影响指标进行主成分分析(principal components analysis,PCA),构建粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)地震死亡人数预测模型。将37个震例数据进行预处理和训练,并使用5个震例数据来检验模型的预测精度。实验结果表明,该PCA-PSO-ELM组合模型的平均误差率为10.87%,相比于PCA-ELM模型和ELM模型,其平均误差率分别降低8.70个百分点和18.38个百分点。因此,采用PCA-PSO-ELM组合模型预测地震死亡人数具有一定的可行性。

2003年10月25日民乐—山丹6.1、5.8级地震烈度和发震构造特征

2003年10月25日20时41分在甘肃省民乐县和山丹县境内发生了6.1、5.8级地震。现场考察宏观震中位于民乐县永固镇姚寨子村和山丹县霍城镇刘庄村一带;极震区烈度为Ⅷ度;发震断层为民乐—永昌隐伏断裂和童子坝河隐伏断裂。本文分析了震区房屋建筑特征和抗震性能及烈度分区特征,探讨了地表变形分布与发震构造的关系。

2011年盈江5.8级地震构造及地震活动特点分析

在介绍盈江及邻近区域地震构造背景、新构造运动及区域构造应力场等的基础上,从2011年盈江5.8级地震烈度等震线、地震序列、地表形变带和震源机制解等方面,初步分析了本次地震的构造活动特征。结果显示,盈江5.8级主震与北东向大盈江断裂左旋走滑活动密切相关,前震和主震序列则反映出北东向大盈江断裂与近南北向苏典—盈江断裂共轭破裂活动的特征。通过区域历史地震概况和5.8级主震前后的地震活动情况,初步探讨了盈江地区的地震活动特点,认为群震是盈江地区地震活动的一大特点,5.8级地震的发生则是2011年年初4级群震继续增强活动的结果。

2015年阿拉善左旗M_S5.8地震序列特征及发震破裂面讨论

以2015年阿拉善左旗5.8级地震为研究对象,基于地震活动背景和序列统计分析,利用HypoDD双差定位方法对地震序列进行重新定位,考察余震在空间上的展布特征,并结合震中区烈度、震源机制解和重新定位结果对5.8级地震的发震破裂面进行判定。结果表明,阿拉善左旗5.8级地震为主余型,重新定位后的震中位置为39.78°N(±0.72km)、106.34°E(±0.76km),震源深度13.2km(±1.15km);序列优势分布方向分别为近SN向和NEE向,分别延伸18km和16km;剖面的震源深度分布显示序列整体东倾,即震源深度由西向东逐步加深。综合区域应力场背景特征、历史地震破裂特征、主震震源机制解和序列重新定位等多方面资料判定认为,本次阿拉善左旗5.8级地震的破裂面应为近南北走向的断层面。

吉林省前郭5.8级震群前后波速比变化特征

本文选取2001年1月1日—2014年8月31日模拟和数字化地震资料的P波和S波震相,对收集到的数据进行了严格的筛选和限定,利用单台多震和达法和单震多台和达法分别获得了各台站波速比随时间变化曲线以及松原地区波速比空间分布,重点分析了2013年前郭震群发生前后波速比的时空变化特征。结果显示,单台多震和达法得到的净月台、丰满台波速比在2013年前郭震群发生前存在中期异常,2个台站均表现为震前低值中期异常,震后净月台缓慢恢复;单震多台和达法得到的松原地区波速比空间分布显示,松原地区波速比横向不均匀性较强,2013年前郭震群发生前存在椭圆形低值异常区,震后异常区显著缩小。