Management and prevention of mastitis:A multifactorial approach with a focus on milking,bedding and data-management

Mastitis is a complex, multifactorial disease. Pathogens, cows and farmers （via management） all play a role. It is costly and annoying for the farmer and threatens the image of the entire dairy industry. Prevention and control of mastitis is based on multiple principles that have been known for a long time. To implement them successfully, they should be put forward by a motivated and motivating advisor that transfers the existing knowledge to the farmer. When the changes are data-driven, applied by an encouraged farmer through a farm-specific implementation, prevention and control of mastitis will be successful and result in happy cows, happy farmers, happy advisors, happy consumers, and a happy industry. Nationwide projects focussing on communication and transfer of existing knowledge in prevention and control are very helpful in reaching high numbers of farmers and advisors and harmonizing the message brought by different parties. This paper gives an overview of multifactorial approach of mastitis management and prevention with a focus on milking, bedding and data-analysis.

数据流上的一种适应性调度策略MultiFactor

本文针对数据流系统中的查询处理机制进行了深入的研究,从内存使用量、系统的响应时间和查询的实时性三个方面进行综合考虑,提出了一种基于多因素的动态调度策略MultiFactor.该策略根据单位时间查询内各操作符消耗的元组数动态调整操作符调度次序,按系统截止时间确定各操作符调度时间.本文还给出了MultiFactor策略的相应算法,并通过实验证明了其性能优势.

Multifactor heart failure in the elderly:a proposal for cooperative research

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a clinical syndrome as a common pathway at the end stage of cardiac diseases of different etiologies, and it is currently the only cardiovascular disease with an increasing prevalence in the developed countries. In the United States, the prevalence of CHF at age 50 years is 1.0%, whereas it reaches 7.5% at age 80years. In the United Kingdom, the prevalence of CHF is5.0% at age 60-70 years, and 10-20% at age 80 years. The situation is similar in Italy and Portugal. Despite being a developing country in Asia, China has experienced rapid progress in acquiring medical knowledge and advancing techniques in recent years. Due to the markedly declined mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) as well as the aging of Chinese population, about four million Chinese have CHF with a prevalence of 0.9%, most of whom are 60 years of age and older.……

Multifactor dimensionality reduction analysis of syndrome characteristics of chronic persistent asthma

Objective:To analyze the syndrome characteristics in patients with chronic persistent asthma.Methods:365 patients(121 males,244 females,60.829.1 years old)with chronic persistent asthma were enrolled in this cross-sectional study.The information of syndrome,symptoms,signs,tongue coating and pulse were collected from all patients.The syndrome characteristics of chronic persistent asthma were examined through the multifactor dimensionality reduction(MDR)analysis and the results were verified by the Chi-square test.Results:The results of the MDR analysis and the Chi-square test showed the following positive correlation of the interaction among:the deficiency syndrome of the lung and spleen and deep pulse,disinclination to talk due to lack of qi,fatigue,lassitude and thick tongue coating;the deficiency syndrome of the lung and kidney and dizziness and disinclination to talk due to lack of qi,fatigue,lassitude and pallid complexion;the syndrome of phlegm-heat obstructing the lung and rapid pulse,abdominal distension,disinclination to talk due to lack of qi,frequent urination and lassitude;the syndrome of phlegm-dampness obstructing the lung and disinclination to talk due to lack of qi,greasy coating,fatigue and lassitude.(P<.05 for all).Conclusion:The syndrome of chronic persistent asthma is characterized by fatigue and lassitude due to dysfunction of the lung,spleen and kidney.

我国城镇污水处理厂污泥产率系数现状及影响因素分析

以我国城镇污水处理厂生态环境统计和监测数据为基础,分析了我国城镇污水处理厂经验污泥产率系数(YQ)和以去除COD导致的污泥增殖来计算的污泥产率系数(YCOD),研究了进水COD、设计处理规模、处理工艺、区域分布等单一因素以及多因素与污泥产率系数的响应关系。结果表明,我国城镇污水处理厂YQ平均值为1.33×10-4 t/m3,YCOD平均值为0.81 kg/kg,YQ、YCOD总体呈正偏态分布;YQ平均值与进水COD、设计处理规模正相关,YCOD平均值与进水COD、设计处理规模负相关;YQ、YCOD平均值对应的COD区间范围为150~250 mg/L,设计处理规模为1×104~1×105 m3/d的污水处理厂YQ、YCOD与平均值最为接近,相对偏差分别为2.8%、-4.3%;A2/O工艺、氧化沟类、普通活性污泥法、A/O工艺的YQ、YCOD与平均值接近,相对偏差范围分别为-1.8%~1.9%、-2.3%~5.8%;华东和华中地区的YQ,华东、西南地区YCOD与平均值基本持平;多因素方差分析显示进水COD为YQ和YCOD的显著影响因素。

开放性眼外伤玻璃体切割手术预后及影响因素

目的探讨开放性眼外伤行玻璃体切割手术(PPV)治疗的预后情况,并对其相关影响因素进行分析。方法回顾性研究2013-01至2022-12在武警四川总队医院、乐山市眼科中心、成都中医药大学附属眼科医院行PPV治疗的开放性眼外伤患者241例(241眼)的临床资料。记录术前临床特征,包括性别、年龄、外伤类型、外伤分区、眼内异物、视力、眼压、相对性传入性瞳孔障碍、受伤至PPV时间(受伤~手术时间)、感染性眼内炎和组织受累情况。根据患者情况制定相应的PPV方案,术后随访6个月,每次随访记录视力、眼压、屈光介质情况,视网膜复位情况,眼球保留和摘除情况。根据末次随访结果评判手术预后情况。采用多因素回归分析术前临床特征与手术预后的相关性。结果241眼中,解剖痊愈113眼(46.9%),功能痊愈93眼(38.6%),总治愈206眼(85.5%),未愈35眼(14.5%),眼球摘除17眼(7.1%)。多因素回归分析显示总治愈率与外伤类型、外伤分区、受伤~手术时间相关,眼球摘除率与外伤类型、术前视力、受伤~手术时间相关。结论PPV治疗开放性眼外伤疗效显著,外伤类型、外伤分区、术前视力和受伤~手术时间是影响手术预后的相关因素。

Association between Gene Polymorphisms and SNP-SNP Interactions of the Matrix Metalloproteinase 2 Signaling Pathway and the Risk of Vascular Senescence

Objective This study aimed to explore the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNP)in the matrix metalloproteinase 2(MMP-2)signaling pathway and the risk of vascular senescence(VS).Methods In this cross-sectional study,between May and November 2022,peripheral venous blood of151 VS patients(case group)and 233 volunteers(control group)were collected.Fourteen SNPs were identified in five genes encoding the components of the MMP-2 signaling pathway,assessed through carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity(cf PWV),and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression.The multigene influence on the risk of VS was assessed using multifactor dimensionality reduction(MDR)and generalized multifactor dimensionality regression(GMDR)modeling.Results Within the multivariate logistic regression models,four SNPs were screened to have significant associations with VS:chemokine(C-C motif)ligand 2(CCL2)rs4586,MMP2 rs14070,MMP2rs7201,and MMP2 rs1053605.Carriers of the T/C genotype of MMP2 rs14070 had a 2.17-fold increased risk of developing VS compared with those of the C/C genotype,and those of the T/T genotype had a19.375-fold increased risk.CCL2 rs4586 and MMP-2 rs14070 exhibited the most significant interactions.Conclusion CCL2 rs4586,MMP-2 rs14070,MMP-2 rs7201,and MMP-2 rs1053605 polymorphisms were significantly associated with the risk of VS.

基于SSA-CG-Attention模型的多因素采煤工作面涌水量预测

矿井工作面涌水量预测对确保矿山安全、优化资源配置、提高工作效率等都具有重要作用。为提高预测结果的准确性和稳定性,基于钻孔水位和微震能量数据与涌水量的强关联性,选择其作为多因素特征变量,提出SSA-CG-Attention多因素矿井工作面涌水量预测模型。该模型在门控循环单元(GatedRecurrentUnit,GRU)提取时序特征的基础上,与卷积神经网络(ConvolutionalNeuralNet-work,CNN)融合形成新的网络结构提取数据的有效非线性局部特征,并且加入注意力机制(Atten-tion),在预测过程中将注意力集中在输入元素上,提高模型的准确性。最后通过麻雀搜索算法(Spar-row Search Algorithm,SSA)优化模型参数,避免局部最优解的问题。将提出的模型分别与传统的BP神经网络、LSTM、GRU单因素涌水量预测模型以及MLP、SLP、SVR、LSTM、GRU、SSA-LSTM、SSA-GRU多因素涌水量预测模型的预测结果进行对比分析,结果表明:SSA算法以最少迭代次数快速寻优,避免了局部最优解的缺陷;SSA-CG-Attention多因素涌水量预测模型整体预测指标绝对误差(E_(MA))、均方根误差(E_(RMS))以及平均绝对百分比误差(E_(MAP))分别为5.24 m^(3)/h、7.25 m^(3)/h、6%,指标方差和为8.90。相较于其他预测模型预测精度更高,相较于单因素涌水量预测模型,多因素涌水量预测模型预测结果更加稳定。研究结果为矿井工作面涌水量预测提供了新的思路与方法,对矿井工作面涌水量预测及防控有着借鉴与指导作用,具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。

谷氨酸通路基因多态性交互作用与快感缺失的关联研究

目的·探究谷氨酸通路基因-基因交互作用与快感缺失的关联。方法·纳入2017年1月-2020年8月在上海交通大学医学院附属精神卫生中心门诊及病房招募的279例精神分裂症(schizophrenia,SZ)患者、236例重型抑郁障碍(major depression disorder,MDD)患者,以及在社区招募的236例健康对照(healthy control,HC)为研究对象。收集并比较3组被试的一般人口学资料及临床特征。采用时间性愉快体验量表(Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale,TEPS)中文版评估3组的愉快体验能力。采用广义多因子降维(generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction,GMDR)法建立谷氨酸通路基因(NOS1AP、GSK3β、DAOA、DISC1及GRIN2A)单核苷酸多态性(single nucleotide polymorphism,SNP)交互作用模型,依据该模型将SZ及MDD患者分为高风险组和低风险组,并对其愉快体验能力的差异进行组间比较,以分析基因-基因交互作用对快感缺失的影响。结果·年龄、受教育年限在3组间的差异具有统计学意义,首发年龄、病程在SZ、MDD组间的差异具有统计学意义(均P=0.000)。3组被试在总体愉快体验、期待性愉快体验及即时性愉快体验间差异均具有统计学意义(均P=0.000);SZ、MDD组患者的总体愉快体验、期待性及即时性愉快体验均低于HC组(均P_(校正)=0.000),且SZ与MDD组在期待性愉快体验上具有边缘性统计学差异(P_(校正)=0.051)。通过GMDR建模发现,由DAOA-rs3916965与DISC1-rs821577组成的2位点交互作用模型对SZ患者总体愉快体验能力具有预测作用(P=0.003),由NOS1AP-rs1858232和GRIN2A-rs1014531组成的2位点交互作用模型对MDD患者期待性愉快体验能力具有预测作用(P=0.037);且SZ高风险组患者的总体愉快体验能力、MDD高风险组患者的期待性愉快体验能力均分别低于其低风险组(t=3.443,P=0.000;t=3.471,P=0.001)。结论·谷氨酸通路基因多态性交互作用可能参与了快感缺失的发生。

基于健康生态学模型的广东省老年共病患者患慢性病数量影响因素研究

背景近年来我国老年共病患者数是持续上升。随着慢性疾病数量的增加,会给老年人带来不同程度的健康损失。目前分析老年共病患者患慢性病数量的多层次因素研究尚少。目的结合慢性病的病因和发病特点,利用健康生态学模型,从不同层面探讨影响老年共病患者患慢性病数量的因素,为我国社区老年共病患者管理和防治提供依据。方法2023年2月,采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样的方法,抽取广东省社区老年(≥60岁)共病患者为调查对象。采用《老年共病患者现况及影响因素调查问卷》进行面对面询问调查,该问卷基于健康生态学模型包含个人特质层、行为特征层、人际关系层、生活和工作条件层、政策环境层。以老年共病患者患慢性病数量为因变量,根据5个层次纳入自变量,进行无序多因素Logistic回归分析。结果共发放问卷1000份,回收有效问卷987份,有效回收率为98.7%。987例老年共病患者中,同时患2种慢性病346例(35.1%),同时患3种慢性病456例(46.2%),同时患>3种慢性病185例(18.7%)。无序多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,以同时患2种慢性病的老年共病患者为对照,患慢性病的时间<6年和6~10年、本地城镇户口是老年共病患者患3种慢性病的危险因素(P<0.05),OR(95%CI)分别为2.100(1.284~3.435)、1.948(1.201~3.158)、4.103(1.496~11.250);每天均可以保证至少6 h睡眠、自评健康状况比较好、每天服药1~3种类型、经常参加社会活动、初中及以下和高中/中专学历、有城镇职工医疗保险/城乡居民医疗保险是老年共病患者患3种慢性病的保护因素(P<0.05),OR(95%CI)分别为0.528(0.322~0.867)、0.570(0.325~0.998)、0.385(0.261~0.569)、0.348(0.208~0.582)、0.412(0.175~0.972)、0.486(0.298~0.790)、0.392(0.242~0.634);男性、1周运动3次以下是老年共病患者患3种以上慢性病的危险因素(P<0.05),OR(95%CI)分别为2.563(1.634~4.021)、2.990(1.429~6.256);每天均可以保证至少6 h睡眠、自评健康状况比较好和一般、每天服药1~3种类型、年平均收入≤3万元和>3~5万元、有城镇职工医疗保险/城乡居民医疗保险是老年共病患者患3种以上的慢性病的保护因素(P<0.05),OR(95%CI)分别为0.300(0.159~0.565)、0.247(0.125~0.487)、0.448(0.240~0.837)、0.288(0.178~0.467)、0.318(0.155~0.654)、0.489(0.293~0.816)、0.416(0.229~0.755)。结论广东省老年共病患者同时患2~3种慢性病的比例较高(占80%以上)。影响老年共病患者患慢性病数量的因素复杂,包括性别、患慢性病时间、运动情况、睡眠情况、自评健康状况、服药情况、户籍类型、子女或家人督促吃药或锻炼情况、收入情况、受教育程度和医保类型,且不同共病数量的危险因素差异较大。因此,应该从不同层面采取相应的干预措施,减少老年共病患者患慢性病数量,提高其健康水平。

梯度硅铝管壳回流焊接快速冷却热力仿真研究

针对某航天电子管壳焊接组件冷却过程中的热力耦合影响问题,建立了焊接组件的有限元热分析模型,研究了在快速冷却过程中梯度材料分布对低温共烧陶瓷(low temperature co-fired ceramic,LTCC)基板、梯度管壳的残余应力和变形的影响。以不超过基板断裂强度为前提条件,以降低管壳整体的残余应力与变形为优化目标,采用了多因素变换优选法,确定了管壳材料的最优梯度分布方案,即合金管壳自上而下的梯度分布为Al-35Si、Al-42Si、Al-50Si、Al-60Si、Al-70Si。其中,Al-35Si厚度为2.5mm,Al-42Si与Al-60Si的厚度均为1.6mm,Al-50Si厚度为0.8mm,Al-70Si厚度为2mm。在该方案下,LTCC基板冷却至室温时的最大变形量为4.86μm,最大第一主应力为6761MPa,远小于LTCC材料的断裂强度320MPa;管壳冷却至室温时的最大变形量为18.291μm,最大残余应力值为20.46MPa,远小于管壳材料的屈服强度100MPa。管壳各层之间的应力集中现象不明显,管壳的整体焊接质量得到提升。

甲状腺微小乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移影响因素分析及清扫意义

目的 分析影响甲状腺微小乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移的因素及清扫意义。方法 回顾性分析收治的597例甲状腺微小乳头状癌患者的临床资料,统计患者的性别、年龄、肿瘤直径、是否存在多发病灶、是否存在包膜侵犯、是否存在桥本甲状腺炎和中心淋巴结转移等情况。分析甲状腺微小乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移的影响因素。结果 597例患者均行病侧中央区淋巴结清扫术,转移161例,占比26.97%;无转移436例,占比73.03%。年龄≤45岁236例,占比39.53%;>45岁361例,占比60.47%。肿瘤直径≤0.5 cm 322例,占比53.94%;>0.5 cm 275例,占比46.06%。单因素分析显示:转移患者的年龄≤45岁占比57.14%、男性占比22.36%、肿瘤直径>0.5 cm占比62.73%、有包膜侵犯占比56.52%、多灶性占比38.51%均高于无转移患者的33.03%、13.76%、39.91%、42.89%、22.48%,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05);无转移和转移患者的有无桥本甲状腺炎情况比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示:男性、年龄≤45岁、肿瘤直径>0.5 cm、多灶性是甲状腺微小乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。结论 是否合并桥本甲状腺炎与中央区淋巴结转移无关,男性、年龄≤45岁、肿瘤直径>0.5 cm、多灶性是甲状腺微小乳头状癌发生中央区淋巴结转移的独立危险因素。

门诊癫痫患儿规范化诊疗疗效及预后多因素研究

目的本项目研究门诊癫痫患儿的诊断、治疗和疾病的转归、预后,采用回归模型对癫痫的预后进行多因素分析,探讨规范化诊疗对预后的影响。方法在某院2022年6月~2023年6月确诊的癫痫患儿中,随机抽取84例癫痫患儿,建立数据库,按照国际公认的标准进行规范化的诊断和治疗,要求在门诊定期复查血常规、肝肾功能、脑电图等。门诊随访后根据患者复诊及服药情况分为规范治疗组和非规范治疗组,用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析判断癫痫患儿的预后和影响因素。结果规范治疗组治疗总有效率高于非规范治疗组(P<0.05)。经单因素分析显示,两组在发病至规范诊疗前病程、首次脑电图是否异常放电、依从性、是否规范化诊疗等资料上出现差异(P<0.05)。将上述有差异项目代入Logistic回归方程分析得出,发病至规范诊疗前病程>1年、首次脑电图异常放电、依从性差是规范化诊疗预后不佳的因素(OR>1,P<0.05)。结论规范化诊疗对门诊癫痫患儿的预后起着积极的作用。而影响预后的关键因素包括发病至规范诊疗前经历的时间、首次脑电图异常放电情况以及患儿的依从性差异。

基于多因子量化选股模型的采摘机器人学习策略研究

首先,基于多因子量化选股模型制定了采摘机器人学习策略;然后,利用多因子量化选股模型对蚁群算法进行了改进,并利用改进的蚁群算法对采摘机器人的路径规划进行了分析与研究。MatLab实验结果表明:此算法为采摘机器人规划了一条长度最短、转弯次数最少的最优路径,移动过程中没有发生碰撞,证明算法对改善采摘机器人移动路径效果明显,使规划的路径更加合理。

A modified simplex method for multifactor optimization of selectivity in gas chromatography

A computer-assisted advanced simplex method is presented for the simultaneous optimization of multifactor (stationary phase loading, carrier gas dow rate and column temperature) for separation of ten compounds in gas chromatography. A three factors factorial design was used. The method was based on a special polynomial established from fifteen preliminary runs, using resolution as the selection criterion, with connection to a general simplex method. Excellent agreement is found between the predicted data and the experimental results, and most of experiments required in the general simplex method can be omitted.

基于慢病管理的扩增药学随访在高血压患者中的应用及影响因素分析

目的在慢病管理基础上给予高血压患者扩增药学随访干预,评价干预前后高血压患者的血压控制效果并探讨其影响因素。方法选取2020年3月~2022年6月在本地区某医疗机构接受治疗的116例高血压患者,对其建立药学服务档案,给予扩增药学随访干预,干预时间6个月,对每位患者自身干预前后进行对照研究,观察高血压患者调查前后血压变化情况、生活方式以及影响血压控制的单因素与多因素分析。结果在慢病管理基础上给予高血压患者扩增药学随访干预后,高血压患者中不服药人数显著减少(P<0.05),在用药依从性中,规律用药患者显著增多(P<0.05),漏服药或不服药患者显著减少(P<0.05);高血压患者掌握合理用药、遵医行为达标及血压控制达标的人数均显著增加(P<0.05);单因素分析结果显示,高血压患者的年龄、病程、干预后用药数量、干预后用药次数及干预后用药依从性是患者血压控制满意的影响因素(P<0.05);多因素Logstic分析显示,患者年龄≥65岁、干预后用药次数为1次/天或≥2次/天、干预后依从性为漏(不)服药是患者血压控制的独立影响因素。结论在慢病管理基础上给予高血压患者扩增药学随访干预,一方面能提高高血压患者用药依从性,让患者用药规律,另一方面能显著帮助患者提高遵医嘱行为更好地控制血压,在慢病管理基础上给予高血压患者扩增药学随访干预具有重要的意义。

Incorporating Convexity in Bond Portfolio Immunization Using Multifactor Model:A Semidefinite Programming Approach

Bond portfolio immunization is a classical issue in finance. Since Macaulaygave the concept of duration in 1938, many scholars proposed different kinds of duration immunization models. In the literature of bond portfolio immunization usingmultifactor model, to the best of our knowledge, researchers only use the first-orderimmunization, which is usually called as duration immunization, and no one hasconsidered second-order effects in immunization, which is well known as “convexity” in the case of single-factor model. In this paper, we introduce the second-orderinformation associated with multifactor model into bond portfolio immunization andreformulate the corresponding problems as tractable semidefinite programs. Bothsimulation analysis and empirical study show that the second-order immunization strategies exhibit more accurate approximation to the value change of bonds and thusresult in better immunization performance.

汉英“动用颜色词+宾语”构式主客观感受性倾向的多因素研究

文章采用多重对应分析(MCA)和二项逻辑回归模型(BLR)相结合的方法,分析了汉英“动用颜色词+宾语”构式义的主客观性倾向,对比了汉英主客观感受性倾向影响因素的共性和差异,并应用认知语言学转喻、隐喻和识解理论,阐释了认知动因。基于COCA和BCC语料的多因素分析,研究发现,汉英“动用颜色词+宾语”构式主客观感受性倾向均受一系列因素的影响,其中共同影响因素是动用颜色词、主语有生性、认知方式、语用意义及心理/情感变化,不同影响因素分别是语用意义和语态。不同于英语的客观性倾向,汉语的“动用颜色词+宾语”构式更倾向主观识解。文章对非母语者习得汉英“动用颜色词+宾语”构式及对外汉语教学具有一定促进作用。

Impacts of environmental and canopy conditions on the nighttime sap flow of larch plantations in the Liupan Mountains,China

Nighttime sap flow(Q_(n))is an important physiological activity under which trees manage drought stress.An in-depth understanding of the characteristics of Q_(n)and its response to environmental and canopy conditions are of significance for arid area forest and water management.This study measured daily sap flow(Q_(s))of a Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation in the Liupan Mountains,northwest China during the 2017-2019 growing seasons,and separated Q_(s)into daytime sap flow(Qd)and Q_(n).Meteorological conditions(reference evapotranspiration,ETref),canopy structure(leaf area index,LAI),and soil moisture(relative soil water content,RSWC)were considered as the main biophysical factors affecting Q_(n).The structural equation model and upper boundary line method determined the effects of compound and single factors on Q_(n)The daily mean Q_(n)values during the growing seasons in 2017,2018,and 2019 were 0.024,0.026,and 0.030 mm d-1,accounting for 6.2,11.2,and 10.1%of Q_(s),respectively.Q_(n)at different canopy development phases(leaf expanding,LG;leaf expanded,LD;and defoliation,DF)over three years was LD>LG>DF.Q_(n)increased with increasing ETref,whereas the ratio of Q_(n)to Q_(s)decreased.Q_(n)did not show regular variation in the three-year growing seasons under different soil moisture conditions.ETrefand LAI mainly controlled Q_(n)by affecting Qd,whereas RSWC had no significant effect on Q_(n).Q_(n)had a positive and linear relationship with LAI and a quadratic relationship with ETref.Both explained 40%of variation in Q_(n)Meteorological and canopy conditions are important factors affecting Q_(n)on the semi-humid study site.The application of the Q_(n)model coupled with the impact of ETrefand LAI furthers understanding of the impacts of climate and forest structure change on Q_(n).

Model fitting of the seasonal population dynamics of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, in the field

The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura(Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management(IPM). Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field. Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year. In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions. This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data. Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.