美国次贷危机对中国宏观调控(Macro-economic Control)启示

启示一:有必要把资产价格纳入中央银行实施货币政策时的监测对象。因为一旦资产价格通过财富效应或者其他渠道最终影响到总需求或总供给,就会对通货膨胀率产生影响。即使是实施通货膨胀目标制的中央银行,也很有必要把资产价格的涨落作为制定货币政策的重要参考。

Fast assessment of earthquake loss and its application to the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on c indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades. The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship. Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper. In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.

Assessment of the macro-economic impacts of low-carbon road transportation policies in Chongqing,China

Reductions in the transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly of global concern.As one of the first low-carbon pilot and carbon trading pilot cities,and as one of the largest automobile production bases in China,Chongqing has multiple low-carbon transportation policies that are coupled.In this study,three policy scenarios are set,including:1)improving the fuel economy of newly sold gasoline passenger cars to 5.71 per 100 km by 2020,2)promoting pure electric private cars to increase the share to 7% of private car sales by 2020,and 3)the policy mix scenario of the above two policies.Simulations are undertaken with the Chinese Academy of Sciences general equilibrium(CAS-GE)model,a type of computable GE model,to assess the macro-economic impact and the industrial impact of the three policy scenarios.Through the policy impact mechanism analysis and data-mapping process,the micro-economic impact analysis results,including costs and fuel savings,for the two policies from the bottom-up model are taken as the shock variables and inputs for the CAS-GE model.The results show that:1)the two policies will both have a slightly negative impact(-0.09% and -0.30%)on Chongqing's GDP in 2020;2)the employment rate will decrease by 0.12% and 0.47%,but the inflation rate will be restrained to a certain extent(-0.21% and -0.17%);and 3)the complementarity of the mixed policy can weaken the negative impact of the two policies when implemented separately.The mixed policy will reduce the GDP slightly by 0.37%,compared with the cumulative effect of the two policies implemented separately,resulting in cost-effective synergies at the macroeconomic impact level;and 4)the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has an uncertain impact on the results.The method and results can provide a reference for the formulation and adjustment of low-carbon transportation policies in other large cities.

The choice of China’s macro-economic policies for the“new normal”

The transformation of China’s economy from the“old normal”to the“targeted new normal”will be an arduous process and the core of this task is achieving sustainable development of the Chinese economy,i.e.,the targeted“new normal,”and realizing the modernization of the state’s governance system and capacity through reform.In this transformation period,such aspects as economic growth rate,economic security,the quality and efficiency of economic growth,and fairness and justice are evolving.The development of the“new normal”in this transformation period is jointly determined by China’s long-term economic growth and all the reform measures intended for advancing the modernization of the national governance system and capacity.Multiple risks confront the“new normal,”and comprehensive macro-economic policies are needed for the smooth running and further development of the economy.

Chinese Economists’ Confidence Survey To Ensure Growth Should Be the First Task of Macro-economic Regulation

As shown in the results of the Survey of the Confidence of 100 Chinese Economists,conducted by China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center,National Bureau of Statistics, the confidence index of the economists in the third quarter of 2008 was 3.81 (the range

Under the Guidance of Macro-economic Regulation, the National Economy Had Developed in Sound Way and the Annual Tasks Are Hopeful to Be Fulfilled and Overfulfilled

The year 2004 will soon pass away. As shown in the macro-economic performance as a whole, the economic performance in the year was sound, smooth and steady. The target tasks determined at the beginning of the year are hopeful to be fulfilled and overfulfilled.In the period from January to November, the accumulative value added of the industrial enterprises above a certain scale totalled 4891.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.8% as compared with the same period in the previous year. In November, the value added of these enterprises totaled 508.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%.

An Agenda for Reforming Economic Theory

In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.