Effect analysis of carbon trading on Economy-Energy-Environment system and calculation of reasonable carbon price intervals

This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research.

A new method for the stability analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced slopes

This paper is concerned with the stability analysis of reinforced slopes.A new approach based on the limit equilibrium principle is proposed to evaluate the stability of the reinforced slopes.The effect of reinforcement is modeled as an equivalent restoring force acting the bottom of the slice and added into the general limit equilibrium(GLE) method.The equations of force and moment equilibrium of the slice are derived and corresponding iterative solution methods are provided.The new method can satisfy both the force and the moment equilibrium and be applicable to the critical failure surface of arbitrary form.Furthermore,the results predicted by the proposed method are compared with the calculation examples of other researchers and the centrifuge model test results to validate its correctness and effectiveness.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output

The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.

On the Consistency of Option Pricing Model with a General Equilibrium Framework

There are two methods on option pricing, no-arbitrage and equilibrium analysis. We construct a simple economy with continuous consumption, in which we “endogenize” the stochastic process of prices in the option pricing model based on no-arbitrage analysis. With constant relative risk aversion type utility function assumption, we present Merton （1973） option pricing model and find the consistency of the model with a general equilibrium framework. We extend the model to the market with m securities and it turns out similar results.

Applying Earth Observation Technologies to Economic Consequence Modeling:A Case Study of COVID‑19 in Los Angeles County,California

Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.

Parameter Uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Reduction in China

Formal methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model outputs to assess the use of the CGE model of China （integrated energy-economyenvironment dynamic CGE, TEDCGE） for carbon tax policy issues. Monte Carlo experiment was used for the parameter uncertainty propagation and unconditional sensitivity analysis, using the variance of the conditional expectation （VCE） as the importance index to identify critical uncertainties. The results illustrate the statistical characteristics of TEDCGE outputs and sensitivities of the TEDCGE outputs to 50 uncertain elasticities. The results show that the carbon tax level for a predefined emission reduction goal is quite sensitive to both capital-energy substitution elasticity and inter-fuel substitution elasticity in the production function, while the key parameter for the GDP reduction rate was only the inter-fuel substitution elasticity. Among the various sectors, heavy industry and electricity are most vitally affected by a carbon tax.

Deregulation or Governmental Intervention?A Counterfactual Perspective on China's Electricity Market Reform

The long-standing severe power shortage in China has provoked much debate on whether China should further promote market-oriented electricity reform. The present paper addresses this issue by analyzing the impacts of deregulation of the electricity generation sector and retailing activities on other sectors, the macroeconomy and electricity users. A countetfactual scenario analysis is used based on a simplified computable general equilibrium framework. We find that deregulation can significantly improve the efficiency of electricity production, increase employment and enhance household welfare. These nontrivial findings can help to resolve many controversies about governmental intervention during China＇s economic transition. Our findings have two implications relating to policy feasibility and applicability; that is, competition in the electricity retail market shouM be phased in, and the necessary arrangements for unemployment in incumbent firms shouM be considered.

Development of Optimal City Size Theory: A Critical View

Nowadays more and more people reside in metropolitan areas,and the impact of this phenomenon is clearly creating challenges for the environment,the economy and the society at large.It is therefore useful and instructive to consider the issue of optimal city size and review the literature over the past decades on optimal city size theory.Based on the progress in recent years of comparative analysis and inductive research,from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,this paper outlines the original definitions proposed for optimal city size and discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of the various theories.The two prevailing models in the classical analysis of optimal city size,the Henry George Theorem(HGT)and the neoclassical approach,are examined later.This paper then introduces the supply oriented dynamic model(SOUDY model)and offers a plausible model for optimal city size based on the general equilibrium analysis,which is related to sustainable development.The results show that:(1)Simple optimal city size theories come from the cost-benefit analysis developed by main stream economics,and therefore cannot overcome the defect that the optimal size of cities is the same since the same production function;(2)The Henry George Theorem,which is one of the classical analysis paradigms of optimal city size,has been used more frequently in recent years to research the issues of optimal tax and public goods and has gradually lost its connection to the topic of optimal city size;(3)The neoclassical approach to optimal city size consists of externalities influencing optimal city size,the equilibrium and optimal models for city size,the optimal town,product variety and city size distribution.This kind of research is still in the mainstream of the study of optimal city size.Compared to single optimal city size,more attention is paid to the optimal distribution of city size;and(4)The supply-oriented dynamic model allows for the integration of a spatial dimension into the economic research of optimal city size,and the constraint between city level and city size is relaxed and this has more power to explain real-world problems.At the same time,the general equilibrium analysis,as a significant economic research method,provides a new perspective for the study of optimal city size.The supply-oriented dynamic model and general equilibrium analysis are two new research paradigms that deserve more attention in the analysis of optimal city size.

A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA

China is experienciug from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological constructions, water conservancy management, etc. The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese goverument. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multipeziod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium （DCGE） model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources. First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holdiug-out in table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity. Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.