This study tries to develop and use a small macroeconometric model to capture the main short-term macro dynamics and to forecast major macroeconomic variables of the Malawian economy. The results show that a reduction...This study tries to develop and use a small macroeconometric model to capture the main short-term macro dynamics and to forecast major macroeconomic variables of the Malawian economy. The results show that a reduction in the policy rate leads to a fall in the lending rate, but with an increase in money supply, and with an insignificant impact on output growth. The results suggest that monetary authorities in Malawi have to make a choice between the objectives of maintaining lower money supply and lowering the lending rate. The results also suggest that, despite the Reserve Bank of Malawi Act of 1989 stipulating that monetary authorities should pursue both price and high growth and employment objectives, our results reveal that price stability is the principal objective of monetary policy in the country. Suggesting that monetary authorities in the country should not only place more emphasis on the objective of stabilization and achieving low inflation, but also focus on supporting strong, sustained and shared growth. To some extent further suggesting that emphasis should be placed on policies and strategies aimed at structurally transforming the Malawian economy so that the monetary policies’ impact should translate into an increase in the country’s output and growth. Further suggesting enhanced effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.展开更多
This study examines,diagnoses,and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19.The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesi...This study examines,diagnoses,and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19.The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios.We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019,following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020.Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from±10 to±60%were analyzed.We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides,namely,GDP,tourism,capital stock,human capital,health expenditures,economic freedom,and unemployment.The results show a toll on the GDP,tourism,unemployment,capital stock,and especially human capital for 2020.The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies.Considering all uncertainties,the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.展开更多
文摘This study tries to develop and use a small macroeconometric model to capture the main short-term macro dynamics and to forecast major macroeconomic variables of the Malawian economy. The results show that a reduction in the policy rate leads to a fall in the lending rate, but with an increase in money supply, and with an insignificant impact on output growth. The results suggest that monetary authorities in Malawi have to make a choice between the objectives of maintaining lower money supply and lowering the lending rate. The results also suggest that, despite the Reserve Bank of Malawi Act of 1989 stipulating that monetary authorities should pursue both price and high growth and employment objectives, our results reveal that price stability is the principal objective of monetary policy in the country. Suggesting that monetary authorities in the country should not only place more emphasis on the objective of stabilization and achieving low inflation, but also focus on supporting strong, sustained and shared growth. To some extent further suggesting that emphasis should be placed on policies and strategies aimed at structurally transforming the Malawian economy so that the monetary policies’ impact should translate into an increase in the country’s output and growth. Further suggesting enhanced effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.
文摘This study examines,diagnoses,and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19.The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios.We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019,following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020.Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from±10 to±60%were analyzed.We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides,namely,GDP,tourism,capital stock,human capital,health expenditures,economic freedom,and unemployment.The results show a toll on the GDP,tourism,unemployment,capital stock,and especially human capital for 2020.The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies.Considering all uncertainties,the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.
