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热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)实时监测预测业务 被引量:21
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作者 贾小龙 袁媛 +1 位作者 任福民 张勤 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第4期425-431,共7页
参考目前国际上普遍认可的Wheeler和Hendon设计的MJO监测指标,设计了适合开展实时业务监测的MJO计算方法,初步在国家气候中心建立了逐日的MJO实时监测业务,通过与国外同类监测结果的比较分析表明,监测指标可以很好地描述MJO的强度和传... 参考目前国际上普遍认可的Wheeler和Hendon设计的MJO监测指标,设计了适合开展实时业务监测的MJO计算方法,初步在国家气候中心建立了逐日的MJO实时监测业务,通过与国外同类监测结果的比较分析表明,监测指标可以很好地描述MJO的强度和传播特征,与国外同类监测产品有很好的一致性。另外,引入了两种统计方法进行了针对MJO指数的实时预测,对预测结果的检验表明,对MJO在两周内有较好的预测技巧,其中利用滞后线性回归方法(PCL)的预测技巧要高于自回归模型(ARM)。 展开更多
关键词 mjo 监测 统计预报
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The Effect of Moisture in Different Altitude Layers on the Eastward Propagation of MJO
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作者 Xiaoyu ZHU Zhong ZHONG +3 位作者 Yimin ZHU Yunying LI Yijia HU Yao HA 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期437-452,共16页
In this study,driven by ERA5 reanalysis data,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)version 4.0 was used to investigate the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)in the tropical atmosphere during... In this study,driven by ERA5 reanalysis data,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)version 4.0 was used to investigate the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)in the tropical atmosphere during December-February(DJF)of 2007/2008.The experiment with 11 cumulus parameterization schemes respectively shows that the Grell 3D scheme is one of several worse ones in describing MJO activities.In addition,still by use of the Grell 3D scheme,four nudging assimilation experiments for water vapor in all model vertical layers(Ndg_all),lower layers(Ndg_low),middle layers(Ndg_mid),and upper layers(Ndg_upp)were conducted.It is found that when the water vapor in the model approaches to the observed value,the model performance for MJO activities is improved greatly.Among the four nudging simulations,Ndg_all certainly performs best.Although Ndg_mid is important for the MJO-filtered profiles related to moisture,Ndg_low and Ndg_upp exhibit superiority to Ndg_mid in simulating MJO eastward propagation.Ndg_low has advantages when MJO features are represented by zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitation because the lower-level MJO-filtered moisture is conducive to the existence of lower-level condensational heating to the east of the MJO convective center.Ndg_upp performs better when describing the MJO eastward propagation features by outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)since it can capture the moisture and cloud top temperature of deep convection associated with MJO,as well as front Walker cell.These results suggest that the lower-level moisture is more important in regulating the MJO eastward propagation,and the observed maximum MJO-filtered moisture in the middle troposphere might be a phenomenon accompanying the MJO deep convection,but not a factor controlling its eastward propagation. 展开更多
关键词 madden-julian oscillation(mjo) nudging technique Weather Research and forecasting(WRF)model vertical moisture structure
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