Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M ≥ 6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.

2018年9月8日墨江5.9级地震云南普洱大寨流体异常特征及机理

文中梳理了2004年以来普洱大寨井连续观测的水化学离子和井-含水层渗透性异常特征。研究发现,在观测井周边250km范围内5.5级以上地震发生前,多次出现过可重复、可类比的异常变化,对地震具有较好的异常指示和预测意义。但相比以往震例,墨江5.9级地震发生前,无论是化学离子还是物理参数均出现了观测以来幅度最大的变化,异常状态较以往强烈很多,但发震的震级只有5.9级。为了研究这一现象产生的原因和机理,文中尝试从区域深部物质活动和区域应力水平2个方面对墨江5.9级地震前的异常演化过程开展讨论,得到以下认识:墨江5.9级地震前,流体异常整体呈现出较为显著的从深部到浅部、从背景到短期微观异常再到临震宏观异常的演化过程;墨江5.9级地震前,普洱大寨连续观测的水化学离子浓度异常和井-含水层渗透性的改变是由于区域内垂向剪切应力持续增强引起的含水层受挤压,从而形成了垂向的流体补给,最终引起不同含水层水体发生交替混合而产生的结果;本次异常形成初期还伴随深部物质剧烈活动的现象,较为显著的由深部到浅部的耦合作用过程可能是导致墨江5.9级地震前出现自观测以来地下流体异常幅度最显著的原因。因此,流体活动从深部开始,随着区域应力不断积累,不断向地表传递的演变过程是墨江5.9级地震前流体异常演化的本质特征;区域应力的作用方式和深部物质活动程度不同,是引起墨江5.9级地震前异常特征与研究区其他历史震例前明显不同的根本原因。文中研究为全面认识普洱大寨井地下流体异常的预测意义和地震前流体异常的深浅耦合演化过程提供了一定参考。

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.

The 2018 M_S 5.9 Mojiang Earthquake:Source model and intensity based on near-field seismic recordings

On September 8, 2018, an M_S 5.9 earthquake struck Mojiang, a county in Yunnan Province, China. We collect near-field seismic recordings(epicentral distances less than 200 km) to relocate the mainshock and the aftershocks within the first 60 hours to determine the focal mechanism solutions of the mainshock and some of the aftershocks and to invert for the finite-fault model of the mainshock.The focal mechanism solution of the mainshock and the relocation results of the aftershocks constrain the mainshock on a nearly vertical fault plane striking northeast and dipping to the southeast. The inversion of the finite-fault model reveals only a single slip asperity on the fault plane. The major slip is distributed above the initiation point, ～14 km wide along the down-dip direction and ～14 km long along the strike direction, with a maximal slip of ～22 cm at a depth of ～6 km. The focal mechanism solutions of the aftershocks show that most of the aftershocks are of the strike-slip type, a number of them are of the normal-slip type, and only a few of them are of the thrust-slip type.On average, strike-slip is dominant on the fault plane of the mainshock, as the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock suggests, but when examined in detail, slight thrust-slip appears on the southwest of the fault plane while an obvious part of normal-slip appears on the northeast, which is consistent with what the focal mechanism solutions of the aftershocks display. The multiple types of aftershock focal mechanism solutions and the slip details of the mainshock both suggest a complex tectonic setting, stress setting, or both. The intensity contours predicted exhibit a longer axis trending from northeast to southwest and a maximal intensity of Ⅷ around the epicenter and in the northwest.

Moment magnitudes of two large Turkish earthquakes on February 6,2023 from long-period coda

Two large earthquakes(an earthquake doublet)occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6,2023,causing massive damages and casualties.The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential information for scientific research and public awareness.There are obvious discrepancies among the results that have been reported so far,which may be revised and updated later.Here we applied a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to the two large earthquakes.The moment magnitudes(with one standard error)are 7.95±0.013 and 7.86±0.012,respectively,which are larger than all the previous reports.The first mainshock,which matches the largest recorded earthquakes in the Turkish history,is slightly larger than the second one by 0.11±0.035 in magnitude or by 0.04 to 0.18 at 95%confidence level.

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter’s relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.

Continuous-cyclic variations in the b-value of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution

Seismicity of the Earth （M ≥ 4.5） was compiled from NEIC, IRIS and ISC catalogues and used to compute b-value based on various time windows. It is found that continuous cyclic b-variations occur on both long and short time scales, the latter being of much higher value and sometimes in excess of 0.7 of the absolute b-value. These variations occur not only yearly or monthly, but also daily. Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, b-values start increasing with variable gradients that are affected by foreshocks. In some cases, the gradient is reduced to zero or to a negative value a few days before the earthquake occurrence. In general, calculated b-values attain maxima 1 day before large earthquakes and minima soon after their occurrence. Both linear regression and maximum likelihood methods give correlatable, but variable results. It is found that an expanding time window technique from a fixed starting point is more effective in the study of b-variations. The calculated b-variations for the whole Earth, its hemispheres, quadrants and the epicentral regions of some large earthquakes are of both local and regional character, which may indicate that in such cases, the geodynamic processes acting within a certain region have a much regional effect within the Earth. The b-variations have long been known to vary with a number of local and regional factors including tectonic stresses. The results reported here indicate that geotectonic stress remains the most significant factor that controls b-variations. It is found that for earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7, an increase of about 0.20 in the b-value implies a stress increase that will result in an earthquake with a magnitude one unit higher.

Toward earthquake early warning:A convolutional neural network for rapid earthquake magnitude estimation

Earthquake early warning(EEW)is one of the important tools to reduce the hazard of earthquakes.In contemporary seismology,EEW is typically transformed into a fast classification of earthquake magnitude,i.e.,large magnitude earthquakes that require warning are in the positive category and vice versa in the negative category.However,the current standard information signal processing routines for magnitude fast classification are time-consuming and vulnerable to data imbalance.Therefore,in this study,Deep Learning(DL)algorithms are introduced to assist with EEW.For the three-component seismic waveform record of 7 s obtained from the China Earthquake Network Center(CENC),this paper proposes a DL model(EEWMagNet),which accomplishes the extraction of spatial and temporal features through DenseBlock with Bottleneck and Multi-Head Attention.Extensive experiments on Chinese field data demonstrate that the proposed model performs well in the fast classification of magnitude.Moreover,the comparison experiments demonstrate that the epicenter distance information is indispensable,and the normalization has a negative effect on the model to capture accurate amplitude information.

Research on characteristics of magnitude structure of earthquake sequences

Based on the research on 108 strictly selected earthquake sequences since 1965 in the Chinese mainland, why the magnitude structures of most of these sequences are not in accord with the G R relation has been analyzed and the fitting method with the division of the magnitude structure for the earthquake sequences has been suggested. The characteristic values of this method in the high magnitude interval have mainly been researched, and characteristic magnitude percent f and the slope ratio b 2 of the high magnitude interval, which are different for various sequence types are most obvious. The results show that the N M patterns of magnitude structures for 52.8% earthquake sequences are not in accord with the G R relation from the magnitude less than 80% of the maximum one and that for only 18.5% earthquake sequences show the decrease trend in the high magnitude interval. When b 2 <0 or 0 b 2 <3.0 and f is less, the strong aftershocks in the earthquake sequences are less; when b 2 3.0 for the sequence, several strong aftershocks often occurred; when 0b 2<3.0 and f is bigger, aftershocks with middle magnitude are more in these sequences.

Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China Seismo-graph Network

By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes （local magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes Ms and MsT, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb） determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that： ① As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1000 km, local magnitude ME can be a preferable scale; In case M〈4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5〈M〈6.0, mB〉Ms, i.e., Ms underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M〉6.0, Ms〉mB〉mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so Ms is a preferable scale for determining magnitudes of such events （6.0〈M〈8.5）; In case M〉8.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in Ms, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; ② In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ME and Ms, and thus there is no need to convert between the two magnitudes in practice; ③ Although Ms and Ms7 are both surface wave magnitudes, Ms is in general greater than Ms7 by 0.2～0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; ④ mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB〉4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.

Comparison between earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph networks (I): Body wave magnitude

By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between body wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (USGS/NEIC) on the basis of observation data from China and US seismograph networks between 1983 and 2004. The result of orthogonal regression shows no systematic error between body wave magnitude mb determined by IGCEA and mb (NEIC). Provided that mb (NEIC) is taken as the benchmark, body wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is greater by 0.2-0.1 than the magnitude determined by NEIC for M=3.5-4.5 earthquakes; for M=5.0-5.5 earthquakes, there is no difference; and for M greater than or equal 6.0 earthquakes, it is smaller by no more than 0.2. This is consistent with the result of comparison by IDC (International Data Center).

A theoretical study of correlation between scaled energy and earthquake magnitude based on two source displacement models

The correlation of the scaled energy,e = Es/ Mo, versus earthquake magnitude, Ms, is studied based on two models： （1） Model 1 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-2 source spectrum, across a fault plane; and （2） Model 2 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-3 source spectrum, across a fault plane. For the second model, there are two cases： （a） As ζ= T, where r is the rise time and T the rupture time, lg（e） - -Ms; and （b） As ζ 〈〈 T, lg（e）- -（1/2）Ms. The second model leads to a negative value of e. This means that Model 2 cannot work for studying the present problem. The results obtained from Model 1 suggest that the source model is a factor, yet not a unique one, in controlling the correlation of e versus Ms.

The Conversion Relationship between the Local Earthquake Magnitude and Surface Wave Magnitude in the Inner Mongolia Digital Seismic Network

Using 116 earthquakes over M_L3.8 in the Inner Mongolia region from 2008 to 2015, the local earthquake magnitude M_L and surface wave magnitude M_S are remeasured. Based on norm linear regression(SR1 and SR2) and norm(OR) orthogonal regression method, we established the conversion relationship between M_L and M_S. The results were tested with Gaussian disturbance. The result shows that the orthogonal regression method(OR) result has the best fitting curve, and the conversion relation is M_S=0.96 M_L-0.10. The difference between our result and Guo Lücan's(M_S=1.13 M_L-1.08) may be caused by regional tectonic characteristics. M_(S Inner Mongolia) value is significantly higher than the M_(S empirical) value, with an average difference of 0.23, the difference distribution of empirical relation and the rectified relation is in the range of 0.2-0.3.

Study on the Moment Magnitude of Small and Moderate Earthquakes Located in the Inner Mongolia Region

Based on digital seismic waveform data from Inner Mongolia Digital Seismic Network,the source spectrum parameters of 182 small and moderate earthquakes from January,2009to September,2016 are derived,and the seismic momentmoment magnitude MW of the earthquakes are calculated.Theand the relationship between stress drop and magnitude are obtained using the linear regression method.It is clear that incorporating the moment magnitude into the seismic quick report catalog and the official earthquake catalog can enrich earthquake observation report content,thus providing better service for earthquake emergency and earthquake scientific research.

Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes

In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.

Probability forecast of earthquake magnitude in Chinese mainland before A．D． 2005

A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.

Rapid communications of preliminary results for the recent magnitude 6.6 Menyuan,Qinghai,China earthquake helps scientists better study intraplate earthquakes

Within one month of the magnitude 6.6 Qinghai,China Earthquake on 01/07/2022,several articles were published online in peer-reviewed journals and websites focusing on different aspects of this significant event.

Control Parameters of Magnitude—Seismic Moment Correlation for the Crustal Earthquakes

In connection with conversion from energy class KR (KR = log10E R, where ER — seismic energy, J) to the universal magnitude estimation of the Tien Shan crustal earthquakes the development of the self-coordinated correlation of the magnitudes (mb , ML, Ms ) and KR with the seismic moment M0 as the base scale became necessary. To this purpose, the first attempt to develop functional correlations in the magnitude—seismic moment system subject to the previous studies has been done. It is assumed that in the expression M (mb , ML , Ms) = Ki + zi log10M0 , the coefficients ki? and zi? are controlled by the parameters of ratio?(where;f0 —corner frequency, Brune, 1970, 1971;M0, N×m). According to the new theoretical predictions common functional correlation of the advanced magnitudes Mm (mbm = mb , MLm = ML , MSm = MS ) from log10M0,? log10t0? and the elastic properties (Ci) can be presented as , where , and , for the averaged elastic properties of the Earth’s crust for thembmthe coefficients Ci= –11.30 and di = 1.0, for MLm: Ci = –14.12, di = 7/6;for MSm : Ci = –16.95 and di = 4/3. For theTien Shan earthquakes (1960-2012 years) it was obtained that , and on the basis of the above expressions we received that MSm = 1.59mbm – 3.06. According to the instrumental data the correlation Ms = 1.57mb – 3.05 was determined. Some other examples of comparison of the calculated and observed magnitude - seismic moment ratios for earthquakes of California, the Kuril Islands, Japan, Sumatra and South America are presented.

Converting Tsunami Wave Heights to Earthquake Magnitudes

There is a fairly strict relation between maximum tsunami wave heights and causation earthquake magnitudes. This provides a new tool for estimating the magnitude of past earthquakes from the observed wave heights of related paleo-tsunami events. The method is subjected to a test versus two paleoseismic events with multiple independent estimates of corresponding earthquake magnitude. The agreement to the tsunami wave height conversion is good, confirming very high magnitudes of M 8.5 - 9.0 and M 8.4 - 8.5. Applying the same method to two Late Holocene events of methane venting tectonics indicates a ground shaking of forces equivalent to a M 8.0 earthquake, seriously changing previous long-term crustal hazard assessments.

On Estimating Magnitude of a Maximum Sequent Earthquake by Viscoelastic Coulomb Stress Change and a Discussion of the Relationship between the M_S7.3 Earthquakes in Yutian 2008 and 2014

On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.