Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in Ch...Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in China.The results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation changes.Specifically,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation change.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.展开更多
A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco...A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.展开更多
By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major...By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.展开更多
Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey corr...Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.展开更多
On the basis of brief description of current situation of old industrial bases and primary industry of Liaoning Province, the paper introduces the general situation of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Pr...On the basis of brief description of current situation of old industrial bases and primary industry of Liaoning Province, the paper introduces the general situation of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. First, the ecological bases of agricultural zoning plan are introduced through various topographic and geomorphic types, regional climate differences and imbalanced distribution of natural resources; Second, in accordance with the theory of comparative advantage, distribution of production and resource economics, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation of agricultural natural resources, with the principle of fully excavating economic function of different natural resources, and in order to improve allocation efficiency of the two resources of market and government, the formation of ecological zoning plan of agriculture in Liaoning Province is analyzed; Third, according to Regional Layout Planning of Characteristic Agricultural Products of Liaoning Province (2006-2010), the paper describes basic layout of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. The policy support of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province is analyzed from three aspects-support policy of functional zone major in producing grain, support policy of other characteristic agriculture-ecological zone and support measures of development of agriculture-ecological zone. The paper also analyzes experiences of agricultural development of old industrial bases in ecological zoning plan: First, agriculture-ecological zoning plan is a effective way of the revitalization of old industrial bases; Second, scientificity of plan is the basis of improving competitiveness of regional agriculture; Third, multi-input mechanism guiding by government is the key of agricultural packing effect; Fourth, integrated agricultural industrial chain is guarantee of realizing industrialization in ecological zone.展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (14BGL093)the International Development Research Center (107093-001)+4 种基金the Specialized Research Fund for the Jointed Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20124105110006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71403082)the 2017 Annual Scientific and Technological Innovation of Henan Province Talent (Humanities and Social Sciences) Support Program, China (2017-cxrc-002)the Young Backbone Teachers Scheme of Henan Colleges and Universities, China (2015GGJS-085)the Henan Province Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project, China (2017BJJ033)
文摘Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in China.The results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation changes.Specifically,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation change.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130748, 41101162)the Key Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-304)
文摘A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.
基金Supported by Youth Initiation Fund Program of Jilin Agricultural University
文摘By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40601027)
文摘Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.
文摘On the basis of brief description of current situation of old industrial bases and primary industry of Liaoning Province, the paper introduces the general situation of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. First, the ecological bases of agricultural zoning plan are introduced through various topographic and geomorphic types, regional climate differences and imbalanced distribution of natural resources; Second, in accordance with the theory of comparative advantage, distribution of production and resource economics, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation of agricultural natural resources, with the principle of fully excavating economic function of different natural resources, and in order to improve allocation efficiency of the two resources of market and government, the formation of ecological zoning plan of agriculture in Liaoning Province is analyzed; Third, according to Regional Layout Planning of Characteristic Agricultural Products of Liaoning Province (2006-2010), the paper describes basic layout of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. The policy support of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province is analyzed from three aspects-support policy of functional zone major in producing grain, support policy of other characteristic agriculture-ecological zone and support measures of development of agriculture-ecological zone. The paper also analyzes experiences of agricultural development of old industrial bases in ecological zoning plan: First, agriculture-ecological zoning plan is a effective way of the revitalization of old industrial bases; Second, scientificity of plan is the basis of improving competitiveness of regional agriculture; Third, multi-input mechanism guiding by government is the key of agricultural packing effect; Fourth, integrated agricultural industrial chain is guarantee of realizing industrialization in ecological zone.
