Influences of Rainfall and Temperature on Malaria Endemicity in Cameroon: Emphasis on Bonaberi District

Relating the influence of climate on the occurrence of a vector-borne disease like malaria quantitatively is quite challenging. To better understand the disease endemicity, the effects of climate variables on the distribution of malaria in Cameroon are studied over space and time, with emphasis on the Bonaberi district. Meteorological monitoring can lead to proactive control. The government of Cameroon, through the National Control Malaria Program, has put in place strategies to control and stop the spread of the disease. This study is therefore geared towards assessing the yearly parasite ratio of malaria over the ten regions of Cameroon and to work out the influence of rainfall and temperature on disease endemicity with emphasis on a district of Douala. The model used is the VECTRI model, which shows the dynamic link between climatic variables and malaria transmission. The parasite ratio observed and simulated showed a maximum correlation of 0.75 in 2015. A positive relationship between temperature, rainfall and malaria is revealed in this study but Bonaberi has malaria all year round. The West region is the least affected by malaria. We recommend that For the VECTRI model to perform better, the population could be incorporated in the model.

Numerical Control Measures of Stochastic Malaria Epidemic Model

Nonlinear stochastic modeling has significant role in the all discipline of sciences.The essential control measuring features of modeling are positivity,boundedness and dynamical consistency.Unfortunately,the existing stochastic methods in literature do not restore aforesaid control measuring features,particularly for the stochastic models.Therefore,these gaps should be occupied up in literature,by constructing the control measuring features numerical method.We shall present a numerical control measures for stochastic malaria model in this manuscript.The results of the stochastic model are discussed in contrast of its equivalent deterministic model.If the basic reproduction number is less than one,then the disease will be in control while its value greater than one shows the perseverance of disease in the population.The standard numerical procedures are conditionally convergent.The propose method is competitive and preserve all the control measuring features unconditionally.It has also been concluded that the prevalence of malaria in the human population may be controlled by reducing the contact rate between mosquitoes and humans.The awareness programs run by world health organization in developing countries may overcome the spread of malaria disease.

Application of Auto-regressive Linear Model in Understanding the Effect of Climate on Malaria Vectors Dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir

It is important to understand the dynamics of malaria vectors in implementing malaria control strategies. Six villages were selected from different sections in the Three Gorges Reservoir fc,r exploring the relationship between the climatic ｜：actors and its malaria vector density from 1997 to 2007 using the auto-regressive linear model regressi^n method. The result indicated that both temperature and precipitation were better modeled as quadratic rather than linearly related to the density of Anopheles sinensis.

Global Stability of a Time-delayed Malaria Model with Standard Incidence Rate

A four-dimensional delay differential equations(DDEs)model of malaria with standard incidence rate is proposed.By utilizing the limiting system of the model and Lyapunov direct method,the global stability of equilibria of the model is obtained with respect to the basic reproduction number R_(0).Specifically,it shows that the disease-free equilibrium E^(0)is globally asymptotically stable(GAS)for R_(0)<1,and globally attractive(GA)for R_(0)=1,while the endemic equilibrium E^(*)is GAS and E^(0)is unstable for R_(0)>1.Especially,to obtain the global stability of the equilibrium E^(*)for R_(0)>1,the weak persistence of the model is proved by some analysis techniques.

A malaria model with Caputo-Fabrizio and Atangana-Baleanu derivatives

In this paper,we study two fractional models in the Caputo–Fabrizio sense and Atangana–Baleanu sense,in which the effects of malaria infection on mosquito biting behavior and attractiveness of humans are considered.Using Lyapunov theory,we prove the global asymptotic stability of the unique endemic equilibrium of the integer-order model,and the fractional models,whenever the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than one.By using fixed point theory,we prove existence,and conditions of the uniqueness of solutions,as well as the stability and convergence of numerical schemes.Numerical simulations for both models,using fractional Euler method and Adams–Bashforth method,respectively,are provided to confirm the effectiveness of used approximation methods for different values of the fractional-orderγ.

Climate-dependent malaria disease transmission model and its analysis

Malaria infection continues to be a major problem in many parts of the world including Africa.Environmental variables are known to significantly affect the population dynamics and abundance of insects,major catalysts of vector-borne diseases,but the exact extent and consequences of this sensitivity are not yet well established.To assess the impact of the variability in temperature and rainfall on the transmission dynamics of malaria in a population,we propose a model consisting of a system of non-autonomous deterministic equations that incorporate the effect of both temperature and rainfall to the dispersion and mortality rate of adult mosquitoes.The model has been validated using epidemiological data collected from the western region of Ethiopia by considering the trends for the cases of malaria and the climate variation in the region.Further,a mathematical analysis is performed to assess the impact of temperature and rainfall change on the transmission dynamics of the model.The periodic variation of seasonal variables as well as the non-periodic variation due to the long-term climate variation have been incorporated and analyzed.In both periodic and non-periodic cases,it has been shown that the disease-free solution of the model is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is less than unity in the non-periodic system.The disease is uniformly persistent when the basic reproduction ratio is greater than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is greater than unity in the non-periodic system.