Objective:To determine the temporal patterns of cumulative incidence of brucellosis using autoregressive integrated moving average models.Methods:This cross-sectional study employed yearly and monthly data of 1117 lab...Objective:To determine the temporal patterns of cumulative incidence of brucellosis using autoregressive integrated moving average models.Methods:This cross-sectional study employed yearly and monthly data of 1117 laboratory-confirmed human brucellosis cases from January 2013 to December 2018 using the Yazd brucellosis national surveillance system.The monthly incidences constructed a timeseries model.The trend of cumulative incidence was perceived by tracing a line plot,which displayed a seasonal trend with periodicity.Thus,the ARIMA models were selected.Thereafter,Akaike information criteria(AIC)and Bayesian information criterion(BIC)values among different models indicated a preferable model from models which were expanded by diverse lags[(3,0,3),(2,0,3),(3,0,2),(4,0,3)and(3,0,4)].Then,the achieved ARIMA model was applied to the forecasting cumulative incidence of monthly brucellosis incidences.All analyses were performed using Stata,version 11.2.Results:For the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,MAPE value was 56.20%with standard error 0.009–0.016,and white noise diagnostic check(Q=19.79,P=0.975)for the residuals of the selected model showed that the data were completely modelled.The monthly incidences that were fitted by the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,with AIC(25.7)and BIC(43.35)with a similar pattern of actual cases from 2013 to 2018 and forecasting incidences from January 2019 to December 2019 were,respectively,0.50,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45 and 0.49 per 100000 people.Conclusions:In summary,the study showed that the ARIMA(3,0,4)model can be applied to forecast human brucellosis patterns in Yazd province,supplementing present surveillance systems,and may be better for health policy-makers and planners.展开更多
A seroprevalence investigation of human brucellosis was carried out in Kuku Dairy Scheme, Sudan. A total of 176 serum samples were collected and screened by Rose Bengal Plate Test （RBPT）. The positive sera vqere fur...A seroprevalence investigation of human brucellosis was carried out in Kuku Dairy Scheme, Sudan. A total of 176 serum samples were collected and screened by Rose Bengal Plate Test （RBPT）. The positive sera vqere further examined using Tube Agglutination Test （TAT） and c-Elisa. The seropositivity was 15.9%, 14.8% and 11.4% using RBPT, TAT and c-Elisa respectively. Whereas, the active infection based on seropositivity and clinical signs were 4.6%, 4.6% and 2.3% in case of RBPT, TAT and c-Elisa respectively. Based on c-Elisa result the infected individuals were further subjected to clinical examination and treated with streptomycin and doxocycline for six weeks.展开更多
Brucellosis is an old, infectious and common zoonosis whose causative agents are Gramnegative bacteria from the Brucella genus. Brucellosis is transmitted through direct contactwith infected animals or using unpasteur...Brucellosis is an old, infectious and common zoonosis whose causative agents are Gramnegative bacteria from the Brucella genus. Brucellosis is transmitted through direct contactwith infected animals or using unpasteurized dairy products of goats, pigs, camels, sheep,buffalo and cows. Brucellosis is still the most common zoonosis in the world, with mostof cases occurring in developing countries. Today, an approach to traditional medicine andmedicinal plants, especially with regards to the repeated recommendations of the World HealthOrganization, is a necessity. One-third of chemical drugs are produced by using plants andthere is a high potential to produce more drugs from plants. Medicinal plants are helpful inthe management of various conditions, especially bacterial diseases. Although there is notenough scientific evidence regarding the clinical effectiveness of herbal drugs for the treatmentof brucellosis, there is strong evidence on the antimicrobial effects of herbal drugs to preventinfection. Therefore, this article seeks to describe the antibacterial effects of some plantderived essential oils or extracts, so that they can serve as promising choices to develop newanti-Brucella medications, as suitable alternatives to conventional antibiotics for brucellosis, asmuch as possible, taking into account the benefits of these herbal drugs.展开更多
文摘Objective:To determine the temporal patterns of cumulative incidence of brucellosis using autoregressive integrated moving average models.Methods:This cross-sectional study employed yearly and monthly data of 1117 laboratory-confirmed human brucellosis cases from January 2013 to December 2018 using the Yazd brucellosis national surveillance system.The monthly incidences constructed a timeseries model.The trend of cumulative incidence was perceived by tracing a line plot,which displayed a seasonal trend with periodicity.Thus,the ARIMA models were selected.Thereafter,Akaike information criteria(AIC)and Bayesian information criterion(BIC)values among different models indicated a preferable model from models which were expanded by diverse lags[(3,0,3),(2,0,3),(3,0,2),(4,0,3)and(3,0,4)].Then,the achieved ARIMA model was applied to the forecasting cumulative incidence of monthly brucellosis incidences.All analyses were performed using Stata,version 11.2.Results:For the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,MAPE value was 56.20%with standard error 0.009–0.016,and white noise diagnostic check(Q=19.79,P=0.975)for the residuals of the selected model showed that the data were completely modelled.The monthly incidences that were fitted by the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,with AIC(25.7)and BIC(43.35)with a similar pattern of actual cases from 2013 to 2018 and forecasting incidences from January 2019 to December 2019 were,respectively,0.50,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45 and 0.49 per 100000 people.Conclusions:In summary,the study showed that the ARIMA(3,0,4)model can be applied to forecast human brucellosis patterns in Yazd province,supplementing present surveillance systems,and may be better for health policy-makers and planners.
文摘A seroprevalence investigation of human brucellosis was carried out in Kuku Dairy Scheme, Sudan. A total of 176 serum samples were collected and screened by Rose Bengal Plate Test （RBPT）. The positive sera vqere further examined using Tube Agglutination Test （TAT） and c-Elisa. The seropositivity was 15.9%, 14.8% and 11.4% using RBPT, TAT and c-Elisa respectively. Whereas, the active infection based on seropositivity and clinical signs were 4.6%, 4.6% and 2.3% in case of RBPT, TAT and c-Elisa respectively. Based on c-Elisa result the infected individuals were further subjected to clinical examination and treated with streptomycin and doxocycline for six weeks.
文摘Brucellosis is an old, infectious and common zoonosis whose causative agents are Gramnegative bacteria from the Brucella genus. Brucellosis is transmitted through direct contactwith infected animals or using unpasteurized dairy products of goats, pigs, camels, sheep,buffalo and cows. Brucellosis is still the most common zoonosis in the world, with mostof cases occurring in developing countries. Today, an approach to traditional medicine andmedicinal plants, especially with regards to the repeated recommendations of the World HealthOrganization, is a necessity. One-third of chemical drugs are produced by using plants andthere is a high potential to produce more drugs from plants. Medicinal plants are helpful inthe management of various conditions, especially bacterial diseases. Although there is notenough scientific evidence regarding the clinical effectiveness of herbal drugs for the treatmentof brucellosis, there is strong evidence on the antimicrobial effects of herbal drugs to preventinfection. Therefore, this article seeks to describe the antibacterial effects of some plantderived essential oils or extracts, so that they can serve as promising choices to develop newanti-Brucella medications, as suitable alternatives to conventional antibiotics for brucellosis, asmuch as possible, taking into account the benefits of these herbal drugs.
