This study applies theories of systems and system dynamics to ecological economic systems in the oasis environment, with the intention of finding the basic characteristics of the oasis environment and its feedback str...This study applies theories of systems and system dynamics to ecological economic systems in the oasis environment, with the intention of finding the basic characteristics of the oasis environment and its feedback structures. This study explores the inner mechanisms of economic development in the oasis environment and its relationship to policy variables. This model is applied to economic development in the Manas oasis of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. System dynamics method starts from studying feedback structure within the system study and then searches for the best solution through identifying the right 'policy point' and through model simulation in the computer. It embodies the cream of 'systems cybernetics theory'. This study is justified because the nature of the oasis system and the simulation results are scientifically sound and practically feasible.展开更多
The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities.Thus,forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great sig...The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities.Thus,forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance.In this study,an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM,consisting of general circulation model downscaling(GD),hydrological model(HM),and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model(PSWROAM),was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency.Furthermore,the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station.The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying,while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable.Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM.The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change.But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios.The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area.Overall,it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.展开更多
Owing to global climatic changes and human activities,the lakes have changed dramatically in the Junggar Basin of Xinjiang in recent 50 years. Based on the remote sensing images from Beijing Satellite No.1 in 2006 tog...Owing to global climatic changes and human activities,the lakes have changed dramatically in the Junggar Basin of Xinjiang in recent 50 years. Based on the remote sensing images from Beijing Satellite No.1 in 2006 together with the measured topographical data in 1999 and other data since the 1950s,this paper analyzes mainly the features of landforms around the Manas Lake and the changes of feeding sources of the lake. The results are as follows:(1) Tectonic movement brought about the fundamental geomorphological basis for lacustrine evolution,and the Manas Lake is one of small lakes broken up from the Old Manas Lake due to tectonic movement and drought climate; the Manas Lake had existed before the Manas River flowed into it in 1915. The geomorphologic evidences for evolution of the Manas Lake include:(a) Diluvial fans and old channels at the north of the lake indicate that the rivers originating from the north mountains of the Junggar Basin had fed the Old Manas Lake and now still feed the lake as seasonal rivers; (b) The Old Manas Lake was fed by many rivers originating from the mountains,except for the Manas River,from the evidence of small lakes around the Manas Lake,old channels,alluvial fans,etc.; (c) The elevations of the alluvial and diluvial fans are near to the 280 m a.s.l. and all of the small lakes and lacustrine plains are within the range of the 280 m a.s.l.,which may prove that the elevation of the Old Manas Lake was about 280 m a.s.l.; (d) Core analysis of the Manas Lake area also indicates that the Manas Lake has existed since Late Pleistocene epoch. (2) Analysis on the feeding relations between the lakes and the lacustrine evolution shows that human activities are one of main driving forces of the lacustrine evolution in recent 50 years,and it is the precondition of restoring and maintaining the lacutrine wetlands in the study area to satisfy the feeding of the Baiyang and Manas rivers to the Manas Lake.展开更多
To analyze extreme climatic change features and effects on runoff in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, data were collected including daily mean temperature, daily highest and lowest temperatures, and daily precipitatio...To analyze extreme climatic change features and effects on runoff in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, data were collected including daily mean temperature, daily highest and lowest temperatures, and daily precipitation from six meteorological stations in the Manas River basin as well as daily runoff data from the Kensiwate hydrologic stations during 1960-2010. By adopting the threshold value of extreme climatic events defined by ET ALDDMI and with the aid of nonparametric statistical tests, Pearson III methods, and others, the effect of extreme climatic events on extreme runoff in the past 50 years in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, was analyzed. The results showed that in the past 50 years, 1) extreme warming events (annual extreme maximum temperature, warm-day and warm-night index) have risen significantly (P < 0.05). Among these the warm-day and warm-night indices decreased abruptly in 2001 and 1996, respectively. With respect to extreme cold events (annual extreme minimum temperature, cold-day and cold-night indices), the extreme minimum temperature was high after 1976, and the cold-day index weakened significantly, similar to the cold-night index. 2) Except for the continuous drought days (CDD), the other five indices of extreme precipitation events appeared to trend upward, with an abrupt change around 1993. 3) Flood events in 1990, mostly in summer, accounted for 42.9% of the total number of floods since 1960. Floods increased mainly because extremely high summer temperatures increased snowmelt, increasing inflow to the rivers, which combined with more precipitation to cause the increase in summer peak flood discharge.展开更多
The Manas River valley, situated in the middle part of northern slope of TianshanMountains, in a geographcal position of N43°20′--45°56′, E84°57′--86°43′,composed of Manas and Shawan counties, ...The Manas River valley, situated in the middle part of northern slope of TianshanMountains, in a geographcal position of N43°20′--45°56′, E84°57′--86°43′,composed of Manas and Shawan counties, and the 8th Agricaltural Reclamation Division,has a total area of 24328Km^2. This area belongs to the arid regions of China with a great distance to the sea. For in-展开更多
Identifying water vapor sources in the natural vegetation of the Tianshan Mountains is of significant importance for obtaining greater knowledge about the water cycle,forecasting water resource changes,and dealing wit...Identifying water vapor sources in the natural vegetation of the Tianshan Mountains is of significant importance for obtaining greater knowledge about the water cycle,forecasting water resource changes,and dealing with the adverse effects of climate change.In this study,we identified water vapor sources of precipitation and evaluated their effects on precipitation stable isotopes in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China.By utilizing the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation stable isotopes in the forest and grassland regions,Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,and isotope mass balance model,we obtained the following results.(1)The Eurasia,Black Sea,and Caspian Sea are the major sources of water vapor.(2)The contribution of surface evaporation to precipitation in forests is lower than that in the grasslands(except in spring),while the contribution of plant transpiration to precipitation in forests(5.35%)is higher than that in grasslands(3.79%)in summer.(3)The underlying surface and temperature are the main factors that affect the contribution of recycled water vapor to precipitation;meanwhile,the effects of water vapor sources of precipitation on precipitation stable isotopes are counteracted by other environmental factors.Overall,this work will prove beneficial in quantifying the effect of climate change on local water cycles.展开更多
The oasis expansion and economic development of the Manas River Valley is one of the most successful examples in Xinjiang. In this paper, the oasis spatial distribution pattern and dynamic change were examined using i...The oasis expansion and economic development of the Manas River Valley is one of the most successful examples in Xinjiang. In this paper, the oasis spatial distribution pattern and dynamic change were examined using imageries of Landsat MSS, TM and ETM, land use and topographic maps in six different periods (such as 1949, 1962, 1976, 1989, 1999 and 2001) over the last 50 years in the valley. The oasis expansion process could be divided into two stages according to the annual rate of oasis area increase, the fast oasization stage (from 1949 to 1976) when the oasis area ex-panded from 156.385 km2 in 1949 to 3,639.491 km2 in 1976 because of rapidly increased population and quickly enlarged farmland area; and the urbanization stage (from 1976 to 2001) when the ex-pansion ratio of farmland slowed down, and the urbanization process quickened, the total oasis area reached 5042.440 km2 in 2001. With the continuous expansion of oasis and farmland, a large quantity of river water was drawn into irrigation ditch and plain lakes, so only a small quantity of river water could flow into lakes, as a result, the Manas Lake dried up, salization and basification problems happened in the low-lying oasis region. The natural swamp around the lake was shrunk greatly and biodiversity decreased significantly. The driving force analysis reveals that human activities, such as reclamation and population growth, played a major role in the oasis expansion and ecological dete-rioration in the Manas River Valley. So further efforts should be made to improve the efficiency of water resource utility and adjust layout of the regional agricultural and animal husbandry to keep the sustainable development of oasis economic belt of the northern slope of Tianshan Mts.展开更多
Calculation of the water balance is very important to relieve the pressure on water resources in arid agricultural irrigation areas.This research focused on irrigation water balance calculations in the Manas River Bas...Calculation of the water balance is very important to relieve the pressure on water resources in arid agricultural irrigation areas.This research focused on irrigation water balance calculations in the Manas River Basin of the southern margin of the Junggar Basin of China,and aimed to analyze the groundwater level dynamic trend and response characteristics of the basin water cycle under water-saving irrigation measures.The surface water and groundwater coupling model of MIKE 11-Visual MODFLOW was used to simulate rainfall runoff in mountainous areas,and quantify the contribution of water balance components in the plain irrigation area.Convergence of the delayed watershed in the mountain area was obvious,and when the river runoff exceeded 200 m^(3)/s,the error in the runoff simulation was large.The water balance in the plain agricultural irrigation area was in a negative equilibrium state,and the difference between recharge and discharge was−2.65 billion m^(3).The evapotranspiration was 24.49 billion m^(3) under drip irrigation,accounting for only approximately 51%of the total discharge.The lateral discharge of the unsaturated and saturated aquifers was 15.38 billion m^(3),accounting for approximately 32%of the total discharge.The main reason for the groundwater decline in the irrigation area was closely related to the extraction of groundwater,because the amount of recharge and discharge in the natural state was approximately identical.The MIKE 11-Visual MODFLOW model produced accurate results,and the research method provided a new exploration technique to quantify the effect of water supply mode on the groundwater table.The model is suitable for the management of water resources in arid areas.展开更多
The characteristics and influencing factors of land use change under arid conditions were studied in the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Region,Northwest China.Landsat satellite images acquired in 1976,1990,2000,2010 an...The characteristics and influencing factors of land use change under arid conditions were studied in the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Region,Northwest China.Landsat satellite images acquired in 1976,1990,2000,2010 and 2015 over the study area were used as basic data.Land use change,the rate of change of land use,land use transfer and other aspects revealed the characteristics of land use change and related factors as influenced by water conditions in the basin.The results showed that:(1)Over nearly 50 years,land reclamation in the Manas River Basin resulted in the rapid expansion of an artificial oasis area,and promoted the process of‘oasis urbanization’,and accelerated the development of the river basin economy.(2)In 2000,the popularization of drip irrigation under mulch technology led to the rapid growth of cultivated land and development land in the watershed.Meanwhile,the water table declined in the desert area of the lower reaches of the river basin,and the area occupied by sparse shrub forest and grassland decreased.(3)Before popularization of water-saving technology,woodland,grassland and development land transformed to cultivated land in the amounts of 93.46 km^(2),2542.93 km^(2) and 137.53 km^(2),respectively,and woodland transformed in the amount of 189.64 km^(2).After water-saving technology was popularized,woodland,grassland and development land were transformed into cultivated land in the amounts of 567.41 km^(2),1756.2 km^(2) and 37.36 km^(2),respectively.(4)The popularization of water-saving technology made the dynamic degree of cultivated land and development land more active,and further increased landscape fragmentation and landscape heterogeneity.The level of urbanization development,the level of economic development and the dry humidity of the basin became the main factors affecting the change of land use in the basin.展开更多
Reservoir regulation and storage is the main approach to alleviate the water pressure caused by the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources in arid areas of northwest China.While the regula...Reservoir regulation and storage is the main approach to alleviate the water pressure caused by the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources in arid areas of northwest China.While the regulation and storage of the reservoir affect the conditions of recharge and discharge of groundwater,the process of regional surface-groundwater transformation tends to be complicated.The Manas River basin that lies on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China was taken in this study as a case.A numerical model of groundwater in basin plain area was established,and the influence of reservoir regulation on groundwater level was studied.The results showed that the total recharge of groundwater in the study area was 75.539 million m3,the total discharge of groundwater was 82.66 million m3,and the groundwater in the study area was in a negative equilibrium state,with a difference of-69.27 million m3.The water balance method was used to verify the comparison.The total recharge of groundwater was 74.34 million m3,the total discharge of groundwater was 80.726 million m3,and the calculation result of the numerical simulation of the supplementary displacement was 63.82 million m3,basically consistent with the calculation result of the water balance method.The reservoir storage method has obvious changes to the groundwater level around the reservoir.The simulation results of groundwater numerical model showed that when the reservoir was in normal operation,the leakage of the reservoir was 27.35 million m3;when the reservoir was operated at low water level,the leakage of the reservoir was the smallest,13.47 million m3.The reservoir has the largest amount of leakage of 41.85 million m3 when operated at water storage level.When the reservoir was operated at the lowest water level,the groundwater level around the reservoir was declining compare to the normal operating water level.The maximum drop of the groundwater observation well was 2.1 m,and the maximum monthly average was 0.99 m.When the reservoir was operating at the normal water storage level,the water level of the groundwater around the reservoir has increased compare to the normal operating water level.The maximum increase of the groundwater observation well was 1.5 m,and the maximum monthly average increase was 0.78 m.The influence of the reservoir on the groundwater level was 2000 m upstream and 12000 m downstream.The research conclusions can provide a scientific reference for the development,utilization and management of regional groundwater.展开更多
Compared to either drip irrigation or mulching with plastic film,the two methods together can reduce water requirements of crops grown in arid areas by more than 30%.Such a combination deployed on a large scale(1)redu...Compared to either drip irrigation or mulching with plastic film,the two methods together can reduce water requirements of crops grown in arid areas by more than 30%.Such a combination deployed on a large scale(1)reduced the loss of soil water by 31.8%compared to that from drip irrigation alone;(2)narrowed the range of annual evapotranspiration from 1582.4-1780.3 mm,which is average for the basin,to 222.2-294.8 mm;and(3)increased the overall humidity in the central plain of the basin.However,the surrounding regions in which drip irrigation is not combined with mulching are getting more arid;thus,as a result of the water-saving technology,both oases and the desertification of the river basin are increasing at the same time.The results of the study further the understanding of the effects of drip irrigation combined with mulching on water cycles in the basin of the Manas river and suggest ways to protect the ecology and the environment of the basin.展开更多
Large-scale water and soil development in inland river basins in arid areas has made changes in landscape composition and structure,threatening the ecological balance.In order to study the trend of land use/cover and ...Large-scale water and soil development in inland river basins in arid areas has made changes in landscape composition and structure,threatening the ecological balance.In order to study the trend of land use/cover and landscape pattern change and its relationship with water resources utilization in Manas River Basin,the land-use data of five periods in 1976,1990,2000,2010 and 2015 were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)During 1976-2015,farmland and construction land continuously increased,forest land and grassland continuously decreased,the water area initially reduced and then increased,the area of saline-alkali land initially increased and then reduced,the overall trend of unused land and the sandy area was decreasing and the area of different time periods is floating.The areas of land-use types either increased or decreased.This indicates that the landscape pattern of the basin changes dramatically,and human activities are the main reasons for this phenomenon;(2)The oasis area increased from 3480.2 km2 in 1976 to 7982.0 km2 in 2015,with an obvious increasing trend.The oasis area clearly increased during 1976-1990,the growth rate was 40.6%,the growth rate of the oasis area was 129.4%.In the last 40 years,the degree of desertification fluctuated and decreased.The increase of the oasis area directly leads to the increase of water resources utilization and aggravates the degree of water resources shortage;(3)The pattern of land-use types showed a non-equilibrium trend.In the region with increasing landscape heterogeneity,the overall landscape pattern was increasingly controlled by the majority of patches.The intensive land management model and drip irrigation under mulch have improved the utilization efficiency of water resources and saved water resources from engineering renovation and irrigation management.展开更多
The glacier mass balance(GMB)is an important link between climate and water resources and has remarkable regulatory functions in river runoff.To simulate changes of the GMB and to analyze the recharge rates of glacier...The glacier mass balance(GMB)is an important link between climate and water resources and has remarkable regulatory functions in river runoff.To simulate changes of the GMB and to analyze the recharge rates of glacier meltwater to runoff in the Manas River Basin(MRB)during 2000-2016,MOD11C3,TRMM 3B43 and other multi-source remote sensing data were used to drive the degree-day model.The results showed that:(1)the accuracy of the remote sensing meteorological data can be corrected effectively by constructing the temperature and precipitation inversion models,and the characteristics of glacial climate can be finely described through downscaling.The average annual temperature was-7.57°C and the annual precipitation was 410.71 mm in the glacier area of the MRB.The zone at an altitude of about 4200 m was a severe climate change zone,and above and below that zone,the temperature drop rates were-0.03°C/100 m and-0.57°C/100 m,respectively,while precipitation gradients were-2.66 mm/100 m and 4.89 mm/100 m,respectively.(2)The overall GMB was negative with a cumulative GMB of up to-9811.19 mm w.e.and the average annual GMB fluctuated between-464.85 and-632.19 mm w.e.Besides,the glacier melted slowly during 2000-2002 and 2008-2010,but rapidly for 2002-2008 and 2010-2016,while the most serious loss of the glacier occurred in 2005-2009.Moreover,the vertical changes of the GMB increased at 244.83 mm w.e./100 m in the ablation zone but only at 18.77 mm w.e./100 m in the accumulation zone.(3)The intraannual runoff strongly responded to the change of the GMB especially in July and August when the loss of the GMB accounted for 75.4%of the annual loss,and when runoff accounted for 55.1%of the annual total.Due to differences in the annual precipitation and snow meltwater outside the glacier,the interannual glacier meltwater recharge rates fluctuated between 19%and 31%.The recharge rate of glacier meltwater to runoff in the MRB was close to that for other basins in the Tianshan Mountains,which may be used as a basis to confirm the reliability of the estimated GMB results.Furthermore,based on the present findings,it is recommended that the research community pursue studies on the GMB in other alpine river basins.展开更多
基金The national key project for basic research on arid areas of western China, No.G1999043500
文摘This study applies theories of systems and system dynamics to ecological economic systems in the oasis environment, with the intention of finding the basic characteristics of the oasis environment and its feedback structures. This study explores the inner mechanisms of economic development in the oasis environment and its relationship to policy variables. This model is applied to economic development in the Manas oasis of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. System dynamics method starts from studying feedback structure within the system study and then searches for the best solution through identifying the right 'policy point' and through model simulation in the computer. It embodies the cream of 'systems cybernetics theory'. This study is justified because the nature of the oasis system and the simulation results are scientifically sound and practically feasible.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC0404301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51769029)+1 种基金the National Science-technology Support Plan Projects of China (2015BAD24B02)the Foundation of Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Commission (15JCZDJC41400)
文摘The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities.Thus,forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance.In this study,an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM,consisting of general circulation model downscaling(GD),hydrological model(HM),and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model(PSWROAM),was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency.Furthermore,the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station.The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying,while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable.Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM.The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change.But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios.The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area.Overall,it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.
文摘Owing to global climatic changes and human activities,the lakes have changed dramatically in the Junggar Basin of Xinjiang in recent 50 years. Based on the remote sensing images from Beijing Satellite No.1 in 2006 together with the measured topographical data in 1999 and other data since the 1950s,this paper analyzes mainly the features of landforms around the Manas Lake and the changes of feeding sources of the lake. The results are as follows:(1) Tectonic movement brought about the fundamental geomorphological basis for lacustrine evolution,and the Manas Lake is one of small lakes broken up from the Old Manas Lake due to tectonic movement and drought climate; the Manas Lake had existed before the Manas River flowed into it in 1915. The geomorphologic evidences for evolution of the Manas Lake include:(a) Diluvial fans and old channels at the north of the lake indicate that the rivers originating from the north mountains of the Junggar Basin had fed the Old Manas Lake and now still feed the lake as seasonal rivers; (b) The Old Manas Lake was fed by many rivers originating from the mountains,except for the Manas River,from the evidence of small lakes around the Manas Lake,old channels,alluvial fans,etc.; (c) The elevations of the alluvial and diluvial fans are near to the 280 m a.s.l. and all of the small lakes and lacustrine plains are within the range of the 280 m a.s.l.,which may prove that the elevation of the Old Manas Lake was about 280 m a.s.l.; (d) Core analysis of the Manas Lake area also indicates that the Manas Lake has existed since Late Pleistocene epoch. (2) Analysis on the feeding relations between the lakes and the lacustrine evolution shows that human activities are one of main driving forces of the lacustrine evolution in recent 50 years,and it is the precondition of restoring and maintaining the lacutrine wetlands in the study area to satisfy the feeding of the Baiyang and Manas rivers to the Manas Lake.
文摘To analyze extreme climatic change features and effects on runoff in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, data were collected including daily mean temperature, daily highest and lowest temperatures, and daily precipitation from six meteorological stations in the Manas River basin as well as daily runoff data from the Kensiwate hydrologic stations during 1960-2010. By adopting the threshold value of extreme climatic events defined by ET ALDDMI and with the aid of nonparametric statistical tests, Pearson III methods, and others, the effect of extreme climatic events on extreme runoff in the past 50 years in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, was analyzed. The results showed that in the past 50 years, 1) extreme warming events (annual extreme maximum temperature, warm-day and warm-night index) have risen significantly (P < 0.05). Among these the warm-day and warm-night indices decreased abruptly in 2001 and 1996, respectively. With respect to extreme cold events (annual extreme minimum temperature, cold-day and cold-night indices), the extreme minimum temperature was high after 1976, and the cold-day index weakened significantly, similar to the cold-night index. 2) Except for the continuous drought days (CDD), the other five indices of extreme precipitation events appeared to trend upward, with an abrupt change around 1993. 3) Flood events in 1990, mostly in summer, accounted for 42.9% of the total number of floods since 1960. Floods increased mainly because extremely high summer temperatures increased snowmelt, increasing inflow to the rivers, which combined with more precipitation to cause the increase in summer peak flood discharge.
文摘The Manas River valley, situated in the middle part of northern slope of TianshanMountains, in a geographcal position of N43°20′--45°56′, E84°57′--86°43′,composed of Manas and Shawan counties, and the 8th Agricaltural Reclamation Division,has a total area of 24328Km^2. This area belongs to the arid regions of China with a great distance to the sea. For in-
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province,China(420QN258)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41630859,41761004).
文摘Identifying water vapor sources in the natural vegetation of the Tianshan Mountains is of significant importance for obtaining greater knowledge about the water cycle,forecasting water resource changes,and dealing with the adverse effects of climate change.In this study,we identified water vapor sources of precipitation and evaluated their effects on precipitation stable isotopes in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China.By utilizing the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation stable isotopes in the forest and grassland regions,Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,and isotope mass balance model,we obtained the following results.(1)The Eurasia,Black Sea,and Caspian Sea are the major sources of water vapor.(2)The contribution of surface evaporation to precipitation in forests is lower than that in the grasslands(except in spring),while the contribution of plant transpiration to precipitation in forests(5.35%)is higher than that in grasslands(3.79%)in summer.(3)The underlying surface and temperature are the main factors that affect the contribution of recycled water vapor to precipitation;meanwhile,the effects of water vapor sources of precipitation on precipitation stable isotopes are counteracted by other environmental factors.Overall,this work will prove beneficial in quantifying the effect of climate change on local water cycles.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40401048)the Foundation for Outstanding Young Scholars(Grant No.40225004).
文摘The oasis expansion and economic development of the Manas River Valley is one of the most successful examples in Xinjiang. In this paper, the oasis spatial distribution pattern and dynamic change were examined using imageries of Landsat MSS, TM and ETM, land use and topographic maps in six different periods (such as 1949, 1962, 1976, 1989, 1999 and 2001) over the last 50 years in the valley. The oasis expansion process could be divided into two stages according to the annual rate of oasis area increase, the fast oasization stage (from 1949 to 1976) when the oasis area ex-panded from 156.385 km2 in 1949 to 3,639.491 km2 in 1976 because of rapidly increased population and quickly enlarged farmland area; and the urbanization stage (from 1976 to 2001) when the ex-pansion ratio of farmland slowed down, and the urbanization process quickened, the total oasis area reached 5042.440 km2 in 2001. With the continuous expansion of oasis and farmland, a large quantity of river water was drawn into irrigation ditch and plain lakes, so only a small quantity of river water could flow into lakes, as a result, the Manas Lake dried up, salization and basification problems happened in the low-lying oasis region. The natural swamp around the lake was shrunk greatly and biodiversity decreased significantly. The driving force analysis reveals that human activities, such as reclamation and population growth, played a major role in the oasis expansion and ecological dete-rioration in the Manas River Valley. So further efforts should be made to improve the efficiency of water resource utility and adjust layout of the regional agricultural and animal husbandry to keep the sustainable development of oasis economic belt of the northern slope of Tianshan Mts.
基金support from the National Natural Science Fund(41601579,41361096)National Key Development Program(2017YFC0404303,2017YFC0404304,2016YFC0501402)Excellent Youth Teachers Program of Xinjiang Production&Construction Corps(CZ027204).
文摘Calculation of the water balance is very important to relieve the pressure on water resources in arid agricultural irrigation areas.This research focused on irrigation water balance calculations in the Manas River Basin of the southern margin of the Junggar Basin of China,and aimed to analyze the groundwater level dynamic trend and response characteristics of the basin water cycle under water-saving irrigation measures.The surface water and groundwater coupling model of MIKE 11-Visual MODFLOW was used to simulate rainfall runoff in mountainous areas,and quantify the contribution of water balance components in the plain irrigation area.Convergence of the delayed watershed in the mountain area was obvious,and when the river runoff exceeded 200 m^(3)/s,the error in the runoff simulation was large.The water balance in the plain agricultural irrigation area was in a negative equilibrium state,and the difference between recharge and discharge was−2.65 billion m^(3).The evapotranspiration was 24.49 billion m^(3) under drip irrigation,accounting for only approximately 51%of the total discharge.The lateral discharge of the unsaturated and saturated aquifers was 15.38 billion m^(3),accounting for approximately 32%of the total discharge.The main reason for the groundwater decline in the irrigation area was closely related to the extraction of groundwater,because the amount of recharge and discharge in the natural state was approximately identical.The MIKE 11-Visual MODFLOW model produced accurate results,and the research method provided a new exploration technique to quantify the effect of water supply mode on the groundwater table.The model is suitable for the management of water resources in arid areas.
基金We acknowledge National Key Development Program(2017YFC0404303,2017YFC0404304)the Natural Science Funds(No.41601579)Excellent Youth Teachers Program of Xinjiang Production&Construction Corps(CZ027204).
文摘The characteristics and influencing factors of land use change under arid conditions were studied in the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Region,Northwest China.Landsat satellite images acquired in 1976,1990,2000,2010 and 2015 over the study area were used as basic data.Land use change,the rate of change of land use,land use transfer and other aspects revealed the characteristics of land use change and related factors as influenced by water conditions in the basin.The results showed that:(1)Over nearly 50 years,land reclamation in the Manas River Basin resulted in the rapid expansion of an artificial oasis area,and promoted the process of‘oasis urbanization’,and accelerated the development of the river basin economy.(2)In 2000,the popularization of drip irrigation under mulch technology led to the rapid growth of cultivated land and development land in the watershed.Meanwhile,the water table declined in the desert area of the lower reaches of the river basin,and the area occupied by sparse shrub forest and grassland decreased.(3)Before popularization of water-saving technology,woodland,grassland and development land transformed to cultivated land in the amounts of 93.46 km^(2),2542.93 km^(2) and 137.53 km^(2),respectively,and woodland transformed in the amount of 189.64 km^(2).After water-saving technology was popularized,woodland,grassland and development land were transformed into cultivated land in the amounts of 567.41 km^(2),1756.2 km^(2) and 37.36 km^(2),respectively.(4)The popularization of water-saving technology made the dynamic degree of cultivated land and development land more active,and further increased landscape fragmentation and landscape heterogeneity.The level of urbanization development,the level of economic development and the dry humidity of the basin became the main factors affecting the change of land use in the basin.
基金This study was financially supported by the National key R&D Program(NO.2017YFC0404304)and Key projects of Xinjiang Joint Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1803244)and The National Natural Science Fund of China(No.51469028).
文摘Reservoir regulation and storage is the main approach to alleviate the water pressure caused by the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources in arid areas of northwest China.While the regulation and storage of the reservoir affect the conditions of recharge and discharge of groundwater,the process of regional surface-groundwater transformation tends to be complicated.The Manas River basin that lies on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China was taken in this study as a case.A numerical model of groundwater in basin plain area was established,and the influence of reservoir regulation on groundwater level was studied.The results showed that the total recharge of groundwater in the study area was 75.539 million m3,the total discharge of groundwater was 82.66 million m3,and the groundwater in the study area was in a negative equilibrium state,with a difference of-69.27 million m3.The water balance method was used to verify the comparison.The total recharge of groundwater was 74.34 million m3,the total discharge of groundwater was 80.726 million m3,and the calculation result of the numerical simulation of the supplementary displacement was 63.82 million m3,basically consistent with the calculation result of the water balance method.The reservoir storage method has obvious changes to the groundwater level around the reservoir.The simulation results of groundwater numerical model showed that when the reservoir was in normal operation,the leakage of the reservoir was 27.35 million m3;when the reservoir was operated at low water level,the leakage of the reservoir was the smallest,13.47 million m3.The reservoir has the largest amount of leakage of 41.85 million m3 when operated at water storage level.When the reservoir was operated at the lowest water level,the groundwater level around the reservoir was declining compare to the normal operating water level.The maximum drop of the groundwater observation well was 2.1 m,and the maximum monthly average was 0.99 m.When the reservoir was operating at the normal water storage level,the water level of the groundwater around the reservoir has increased compare to the normal operating water level.The maximum increase of the groundwater observation well was 1.5 m,and the maximum monthly average increase was 0.78 m.The influence of the reservoir on the groundwater level was 2000 m upstream and 12000 m downstream.The research conclusions can provide a scientific reference for the development,utilization and management of regional groundwater.
基金We acknowledge National Key Development Program(2017YFC0404304)the Natural Science Funds(U1803244,41601579)+2 种基金Programs of Xinjiang Production&Construction Corps(2018CB023,2018AB027,2016AG014)Excellent Youth Teachers Program of Xinjiang Production&Construction Corps(CZ027204)Youth Innovative Talents Program of Shihezi University(CXRC201801).
文摘Compared to either drip irrigation or mulching with plastic film,the two methods together can reduce water requirements of crops grown in arid areas by more than 30%.Such a combination deployed on a large scale(1)reduced the loss of soil water by 31.8%compared to that from drip irrigation alone;(2)narrowed the range of annual evapotranspiration from 1582.4-1780.3 mm,which is average for the basin,to 222.2-294.8 mm;and(3)increased the overall humidity in the central plain of the basin.However,the surrounding regions in which drip irrigation is not combined with mulching are getting more arid;thus,as a result of the water-saving technology,both oases and the desertification of the river basin are increasing at the same time.The results of the study further the understanding of the effects of drip irrigation combined with mulching on water cycles in the basin of the Manas river and suggest ways to protect the ecology and the environment of the basin.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1803244)Major scientific and technological projects of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(2017AA002)+3 种基金Science and Technology Research Project of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(2018AB027)Scientific Research Program of Shihezi University(KX00860105,KX008201,CXRC201801)Innovation and Development Support Program of Key Industries in Southern Xinjiang(2020DB001)Key Research and Development Program of National“13th Five-Year Plan”(2016YFC0501402).
文摘Large-scale water and soil development in inland river basins in arid areas has made changes in landscape composition and structure,threatening the ecological balance.In order to study the trend of land use/cover and landscape pattern change and its relationship with water resources utilization in Manas River Basin,the land-use data of five periods in 1976,1990,2000,2010 and 2015 were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)During 1976-2015,farmland and construction land continuously increased,forest land and grassland continuously decreased,the water area initially reduced and then increased,the area of saline-alkali land initially increased and then reduced,the overall trend of unused land and the sandy area was decreasing and the area of different time periods is floating.The areas of land-use types either increased or decreased.This indicates that the landscape pattern of the basin changes dramatically,and human activities are the main reasons for this phenomenon;(2)The oasis area increased from 3480.2 km2 in 1976 to 7982.0 km2 in 2015,with an obvious increasing trend.The oasis area clearly increased during 1976-1990,the growth rate was 40.6%,the growth rate of the oasis area was 129.4%.In the last 40 years,the degree of desertification fluctuated and decreased.The increase of the oasis area directly leads to the increase of water resources utilization and aggravates the degree of water resources shortage;(3)The pattern of land-use types showed a non-equilibrium trend.In the region with increasing landscape heterogeneity,the overall landscape pattern was increasingly controlled by the majority of patches.The intensive land management model and drip irrigation under mulch have improved the utilization efficiency of water resources and saved water resources from engineering renovation and irrigation management.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41761108,No.41771077。
文摘The glacier mass balance(GMB)is an important link between climate and water resources and has remarkable regulatory functions in river runoff.To simulate changes of the GMB and to analyze the recharge rates of glacier meltwater to runoff in the Manas River Basin(MRB)during 2000-2016,MOD11C3,TRMM 3B43 and other multi-source remote sensing data were used to drive the degree-day model.The results showed that:(1)the accuracy of the remote sensing meteorological data can be corrected effectively by constructing the temperature and precipitation inversion models,and the characteristics of glacial climate can be finely described through downscaling.The average annual temperature was-7.57°C and the annual precipitation was 410.71 mm in the glacier area of the MRB.The zone at an altitude of about 4200 m was a severe climate change zone,and above and below that zone,the temperature drop rates were-0.03°C/100 m and-0.57°C/100 m,respectively,while precipitation gradients were-2.66 mm/100 m and 4.89 mm/100 m,respectively.(2)The overall GMB was negative with a cumulative GMB of up to-9811.19 mm w.e.and the average annual GMB fluctuated between-464.85 and-632.19 mm w.e.Besides,the glacier melted slowly during 2000-2002 and 2008-2010,but rapidly for 2002-2008 and 2010-2016,while the most serious loss of the glacier occurred in 2005-2009.Moreover,the vertical changes of the GMB increased at 244.83 mm w.e./100 m in the ablation zone but only at 18.77 mm w.e./100 m in the accumulation zone.(3)The intraannual runoff strongly responded to the change of the GMB especially in July and August when the loss of the GMB accounted for 75.4%of the annual loss,and when runoff accounted for 55.1%of the annual total.Due to differences in the annual precipitation and snow meltwater outside the glacier,the interannual glacier meltwater recharge rates fluctuated between 19%and 31%.The recharge rate of glacier meltwater to runoff in the MRB was close to that for other basins in the Tianshan Mountains,which may be used as a basis to confirm the reliability of the estimated GMB results.Furthermore,based on the present findings,it is recommended that the research community pursue studies on the GMB in other alpine river basins.