Prediction of the joint impacts of sea level rise and land development on distribution patterns of mangrove communities

Mangrove distribution along shorelines shows distinct zonation patterns;thus,different communities may face various influences from sea level rise(SLR)and land use.However,long-term change predictions are usually based only on the total extent of mangroves.Few studies have revealed how SLR and land development such as agriculture,aquaculture,and urbanization jointly affect different intertidal mangrove communities.This study proposed a novel framework combining SLAMM(Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model)and the CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent)model to assess the potential impacts on upper and lower intertidal mangrove communities.Maoweihai in Guangxi,China,was selected as the study area and the potential impacts from the squeeze effect and mangrove expansion potential were evaluated.We established three scenarios combining SLR and land use patterns to predict mangrove coverage projections by 2070.The results showed that,under a single SLR driver,the upper intertidal mangroves would be more adaptive to rapid SLR than the lower intertidal mangroves.However,under the combined influence of the two drivers,the upper intertidal mangroves would experience larger squeeze effects than the lower intertidal mangroves,with up to 80.5%of suitable habitat lost.Moreover,the expansion potential of upper intertidal mangroves would be considerably more limited than that of lower intertidal mangroves.The length of the expandable habitat patch boundary of upper intertidal mangroves only reached 1.4–1.8 km,while that of the lower intertidal mangroves reached up to99.2–111.2 km.Further,we found that aquaculture ponds and cropland are the top two land development types that could occupy suitable habitat and restrict the mangrove expansion potential.Our results highlight that timely improvement of land use policies to create available landward accommodation space for mangrove migration is essential to maintain the coverage and diversity of mangrove communities under SLR.The proposed method can be a helpful tool for adaptive mangrove conservation and management under climate change.

Perceptive insight into incentive design and sustainability of participatory mangrove management: a case study from the Indian Sundarbans

Incentive design is among the decisive factors behind active community participation and long-term sustainability of participatory forest management. Especially in case of mangroves, where multiple interests apply, it requires a careful integration of several ecological, economic and institutional factors. The primary objective of this paper is to understand the basis of incentive design and make a comprehensive inquiry into the existing incentive mechanism of participatory mangrove management in Indian Sundarbans. The qualitative and in-depth assessment was derived against a conceptual framework that contains three main determinants: (1) resources availability, (2) control mechanism, and (3) perception of end-users. The study deploys the results of various participatory exercises such as structured interviews with forest officials, focus group discussions with 10 Joint Forest Management Committees and semi-structured interviews with 119 mangrove users. In general, we observed an over-cautious, hierarchical and safety-margin-based incentive design with distinct bifurcation of communities over the adequacy and effectiveness of derived benefits. Although, the incentives are diverse and align well with the overall conservation of mangroves, they are considered to be insufficient by nearly half of the mangrove users. The main issues that were observed to hinder effective community participation can be summarized as (1) serious restrictions on access to economically exploitable mangrove products, (2) passive involvement of vulnerable occupational groups, and (3) lack of trust and conflicting interests between the officials and the communities. Although the existing preventive management of mangroves can be justified considering the magnanimity of the Indian Sundarbans, it can severely impair community participation and emerge as a clear threat to future sustainability. To secure greater participation of the communities, we propose small scale, innovative developmental incentives to supplement traditional forest-resource-based incentives.