Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are establishe...Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.展开更多
Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM ski...Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.展开更多
A nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus （NPZD） type of marine ecosystem model was developed in this study,and was further coupled to a three-dimensional primitive-equation ocean circulation model with a river ...A nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus （NPZD） type of marine ecosystem model was developed in this study,and was further coupled to a three-dimensional primitive-equation ocean circulation model with a river discharge model and a solar radiation model to reproduce the dynamics of the low nutrition level in the Bohai Sea （BS）.The simulation results were validated by observations and it was shown that the seasonal variation in the phytoplankton biomass could be characterized by the double-peak structure,corresponding to the spring and summer blooms,respectively.It was also found that both nitrogen and phosphate declined to the lowest level after the onset of the summer bloom,since the large amounts of nutrients were exhausted by phytoplankton for photosynthesis,and the concentrations of nutrients could resume in winter after a series of the biogeochemical-physical processes.By calculating the nitrogen/phosphorus （N/P） ratio,it is easy to see that the phytoplankton dynamics is nitrogen-limited as a whole in BS,though the phosphorus limitation may occur in the Yellow River （YR） Estuary where the input of riverine nitrogen is much more than that of phosphate.展开更多
为客观地分析国内外海洋生态价值评估研究现状,明确当前的研究前沿与热点问题,本研究基于Web of Science和CNKI数据库获得的有关海洋生态价值评估的英文文献423篇、中文文献665篇,采用文献计量学的方法,分析了近20年来海洋生态价值评估...为客观地分析国内外海洋生态价值评估研究现状,明确当前的研究前沿与热点问题,本研究基于Web of Science和CNKI数据库获得的有关海洋生态价值评估的英文文献423篇、中文文献665篇,采用文献计量学的方法,分析了近20年来海洋生态价值评估研究状况。结果发现,区域性近海的海洋生态价值评估最受关注。其中,海洋生态价值评估方法及模型模拟是当前海洋生态价值评估的前沿领域,区域性海洋生态价值评估方法及模型应用将成为未来的研究重点,国内研究热点海域主要集中在渤海海域、华南海岸带、舟山海域、大亚湾和长江三角洲等,文章最后提出,创建海洋生态价值评估体系,完善海洋生态价值评估方法和模型,进一步提高海洋生态价值评估的准确性,将成为海洋生态价值评估领域的发展趋势。展开更多
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2010CB428703)Oceanic Science Fund for Young Scholar of SOA (Nos. 2010225, 2010118)+1 种基金Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean of China (Nos. 201005008, 201005009)Open Fund of MOIDAT (No. 201011)
文摘Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41206111,41206112)
文摘Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.
基金supported by Key Subject Fund of Shanghai Education Committee (No. J50702)Open Foundation of the Key Subject in Environmental Engineering of Shanghai Ocean University(No. B820609000404)Initial Foundation for Ph. D. of ShanghaiOcean University (No. B820607000402)
文摘A nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus （NPZD） type of marine ecosystem model was developed in this study,and was further coupled to a three-dimensional primitive-equation ocean circulation model with a river discharge model and a solar radiation model to reproduce the dynamics of the low nutrition level in the Bohai Sea （BS）.The simulation results were validated by observations and it was shown that the seasonal variation in the phytoplankton biomass could be characterized by the double-peak structure,corresponding to the spring and summer blooms,respectively.It was also found that both nitrogen and phosphate declined to the lowest level after the onset of the summer bloom,since the large amounts of nutrients were exhausted by phytoplankton for photosynthesis,and the concentrations of nutrients could resume in winter after a series of the biogeochemical-physical processes.By calculating the nitrogen/phosphorus （N/P） ratio,it is easy to see that the phytoplankton dynamics is nitrogen-limited as a whole in BS,though the phosphorus limitation may occur in the Yellow River （YR） Estuary where the input of riverine nitrogen is much more than that of phosphate.
文摘为客观地分析国内外海洋生态价值评估研究现状,明确当前的研究前沿与热点问题,本研究基于Web of Science和CNKI数据库获得的有关海洋生态价值评估的英文文献423篇、中文文献665篇,采用文献计量学的方法,分析了近20年来海洋生态价值评估研究状况。结果发现,区域性近海的海洋生态价值评估最受关注。其中,海洋生态价值评估方法及模型模拟是当前海洋生态价值评估的前沿领域,区域性海洋生态价值评估方法及模型应用将成为未来的研究重点,国内研究热点海域主要集中在渤海海域、华南海岸带、舟山海域、大亚湾和长江三角洲等,文章最后提出,创建海洋生态价值评估体系,完善海洋生态价值评估方法和模型,进一步提高海洋生态价值评估的准确性,将成为海洋生态价值评估领域的发展趋势。
