Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development and Eco-Environmental Carrying Capacity in Water-Deficient Regions:A Case Study in the Haihe River Basin,China

Quantitative assessment of development sustainability could be a challenge to regional management and planning, especially for areas facing great risks of water shortage. Surface-water decline and groundwater over-pumping have caused serious environmental problems and limited economic development in many regions all around the world. In this paper, a framework for quantitatively evaluating development sustainability was established with water-related eco-environmental carrying capacity （EECC） as the core measure. As a case study, the developed approach was applied to data of the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1998 through 2007. The overall sustainable development degree （SDD） is determined to be 0.39, suggesting that this rate of development is not sustainable. Results of scenario analysis revealed that overshoot, or resource over- exploitation, of the Basin＇s EECC is about 20% for both population and economy. Based on conditions in the study area in 2007, in order to achieve sustainable development, i.e., SDD〉0.70 in this study, the EECC could support a population of 108 million and gross domestic product （GDP） of 2.72 trillion CNY. The newly developed approach in quantifying ecoenvironmental carrying capacity is anticipated to facilitate sustainable development oriented resource management in waterdeficient areas.

Carrying Capacity of Marine Region in Liaoning Province

Carrying capacity is one of important studies on coordinating development of population,resources,and environment.At present,the researches on it mainly concentrate on the carrying capacity for population and economy,such as the water resources carrying capacity,the land resources carrying capacity,the environment carrying capacity,etc.Based on the related theories and methods,this paper creatively proposed the concept and meaning of carrying capacity of marine region,and formed the appraisal system.According to the developing situation of marine economy of Liaoning Province in recent years,and by employing the method of the state space,this paper also measured the carrying capacity and carrying state of marine region and discussed the sustainable problems of marine economy of Liaoning.The research results show that the carrying state of marine region of Liaoning is in the state of overloading at present,but taking a favorable turn.

A Study on Marine Region Carrying Capacity and Eco-compensation

With the using up of land resources, people are beginning to pay attention to the exploitation of the ocean and the use of marine resources is becoming more and more intense. Whether and how the ocean can be sustainably exploited as it is being exploited is an academic hot topic. This question is addressed in this paper based on the theories of carrying capacity of a marine region and marine eco-compensation, and the amount of the loss is calculated by the method of Time Value of Capital. This thesis covers the study of eco-compensation between two specific subjects with clear compensation objects, and as a defined approach and standard, the proposed method has good operability and positive practical significance in the good use of the ocean.

The Impact of Marine Aquaculture on the Environment;the Importance of Site Selection and Carrying Capacity

A growing increase in the world’s population and a gradual decline in poverty necessitate a search for new sources of protein in order to guarantee food security. Aquaculture has been identified as a potential sector capable of meeting the requirements for increased protein production without making excessive demands on the ecosystem. Although water makes up 70% of the earth’s surface, aquaculture cannot feasibly be practised everywhere;it requires a unique set of natural, social and economic resources to be managed in an environmentally responsible way. Finding suitable sites for aquaculture is becoming an ever increasing problem in the development of the sector as precautions need to be taken in setting up sites to ensure appropriate environmental characteristics exist and that good water quality can be maintained. Additionally, the effects of aquaculture on coastal and inland resources must be clearly determined to implement policies and regulatory frameworks to control its impact. Marine cage farming is gaining momentum, specifically in the Mediterranean and Black Sea coastal regions. For these sites to be further developed there is a need to minimize the effects on the environment and conflicts with other coastal users. To this aim the concept of allocated zones for aquaculture (AZA) is being adopted to provide specific areas for marine aquaculture to avoid environmental degradation. When choosing an (AZA) suitable site, it is vital to calculate ‘carrying capacity’ to reduce the risks and to protect the marine ecosystems. In this study the MERAMOD model was used to investigate the carrying capacity of marine fish farms. Modelling offers the possibility to simulate and predict the environmental impact of fish farms.

The Coordination Effect of Marine and Land Resources Carrying Capacity of Coastal Areas in China

The carrying capacity of marine and land resources is one of the indicators to measure the sustainable development level of coastal areas,reflecting the supporting capacity of the ecological environment for human activities and the impact of human activities on the regional environment.This paper establishes an evaluation index system to determine the evaluation value of the carrying capacity of marine and land resources in China’s coastal areas,the evaluation index of marine and land resources supply capacity(economic and social development demand)subsystem,and the degree of coordinated development of the subsystems in 11 coastal areas from 2006 to 2017.The results showed that the average supply and demand capacity of the two subsystems in each region is not high;the average demand level of economic and social development is higher than the supply capacity of marine and land resources;the carrying capacity of marine and land resources is slightly overloaded in most areas;the collaborative development between the supply and demand subsystems is barely coordinated with moderate imbalance;most regions need to move in the direction of green development to ensure the supply capacity of marine and land resources.

Assessment of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in Lin'an City

According to regional characteristics and the actual situation in Lin ’an City, an evaluation index system of land comprehensive carrying capacity composed of three support subsystems （eco-environment, social and economic carrying capaci-ties） containing 22 evaluation indexes was established to evaluate the comprehen-sive carrying capacity of land resource in Lin’an City during 2005-2012. Meanwhile, based on the target data of overal land use plan, the level of land comprehensive carrying capacity was predicted at the end of the plan period （2020） .The results showed that land comprehensive carrying capacity had a significant growth in Lin ’an from 2005 to 2012, and the development trend was basical y sustainable. The sub-systems also had been greatly improved, in which the constant improvement of ec-ological environment carrying capacity made the largest contribution to the constant raising of land comprehensive carrying capacity. The degree of coordination between the systems was poor, in which eco-environment carrying capacity had the maxi-mum growth, far more than the social and economic carrying capacities. According to the land comprehensive carrying capacity in 2020, utilization of land resources in Lin＆#39;an city can achieve sustainable development in general. Final y, proposals of im-proving comprehensive carrying capacity were put forward in terms of the enhance-ment of eco-environment protection, accelerating economic development and policy guidance.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Energy-based marine ecological footprint in Shandong province, China

An energy-based ecological footprint model was set up to monitor the sustainable development status of a specific marine system. This model used unit energy value and energy density to convert the consumption into ecological productive areas. It can reflect the utilization degree of resources in the regional development. Then, the quantitative analysis of sustainable development was done by comparing the size of the areas. We defined the concept of energy-based ecological footprint of marine and built energy-based ecological footprint model of marine. Then we applied this model to marine ecological system of Shandong province to evaluate its sustainable development statue. The results showed that the energy-based marine ecological footprint of the marine ecological system in Shandong province was 1.74 × 106 hm^2 in 2010, and the energy-based ecological carrying capacity of this area was 1.60×107 hm^2 per capita. Thus, the marine ecological system of Shandong province has strong sustainability.

基于状态空间法的环渤海地区海洋生态承载力评价与时空演化分析

近年来,海洋经济的蓬勃发展、海洋的开发与利用规模不断扩大,同时也造成严峻的海洋生态问题,制约着我国海洋经济的可持续发展。为更好地经略海洋,实现海洋经济的可持续发展,需要对海洋生态承载力进行科学评判,在可控范围内对海洋进行科学的开发与利用。为此,本文从社会经济、科学技术、资源禀赋以及环境生态四个层面构建海洋生态承载力评价指标体系,结合状态空间法,对环渤海地区三省一市2010-2020年的海洋生态承载力的时空差异与特征进行探讨,并提出改善环渤海地区海洋生态承载力的对策建议。研究结果表明:环渤海地区海洋生态承载力整体水平较低,且地域间存在明显差异,山东省与辽宁省处于基本可载状态,天津市与河北省处于不可载状态。从时序层面,2010-2020年三省一市海洋生态承载力保持整体平稳略有上升的态势。

基于DPSIR模型和耦合协调度模型的胶州湾海域承载力分析

海域承载力是海洋资源利用协调发展的重要指标,本研究旨在根据胶州湾海域资源特征,基于DPSIR模型构建海域承载力评价指标体系,运用熵值法评价2000—2020年胶州湾海域承载力,并运用耦合协调度模型分析胶州湾海域承载力子系统内部的耦合协调度。结果表明,2000—2020年胶州湾海域承载力和耦合协调度变化幅度范围分别为0.70~0.95和0.73~0.85。研究结论如下:1)2000—2020年胶州湾海域承载力处于强可载、近满载状态,总体呈降低趋势;2)在压力层中的对海洋资源的需求是影响海域承载力的主要因素,而GDP(Gross Domestic Product)增长率、海洋渔船数和海洋渔船功率、人均滩涂面积和人均用海面积、主要海洋产业增加值年增长率、人工增殖放流则分别是影响驱动力层、压力层、状态层、影响层、响应层的主要因素;3)2000—2020年间胶州湾海域承载力整体耦合协调度总体呈“初级协调至良好协调”态势。

基于系统动力学模型的胶州湾海域承载力预测

基于胶州湾海域资源现状特点,本文从社会系统、经济系统、资源系统及环境系统来构建胶州湾海域承载力系统动力学模型,并设置两种情景(现状延续和高质量发展)来模拟预测胶州湾海域承载力关键变量的动态变化趋势。结果表明:在预测年份,人口总数、国内生产总值(GDP)总额及海洋产业产值继续呈现上扬趋势,海域承载力也逐渐提高;工业产值呈现下降趋势,其在现状延续情景下,下降幅度较大,而在高质量发展下,下降幅度变缓。总体而言,不同情景下各决策参数组合的发展趋势不同,在高质量发展情景下的参数组合更有利于改善海域承载力。

海洋牧场生态系统稳定性及其对干扰的响应--研究现状、问题及建议

海洋牧场建设是实现我国近海渔业资源恢复、生态系统和谐发展与蓝碳增汇的重要途径。近年来,在快速发展的同时也面临着诸多问题与挑战,极大制约了产业的健康发展。在海洋牧场建设过程中,关于生境营造和资源增殖的基础理论薄弱,对其生态系统稳定性与抗干扰能力认识不清,尤其对小尺度海洋牧场生态系统的结构及其功能实现过程,以及生态承载力知之甚少。亟需针对其人工鱼礁等生境营造的环境效应和增殖放流的资源补充效应开展理论印证和定量研究,以充分认识这些人为扰动的双重性。本文查阅了相关文献90余篇,简要回顾了国内外关于人工鱼礁生境营造的水动力环境特征、生源要素迁移过程、生物群落构建机制和局地生态系统稳定性评价等方面的研究进展。强调了小尺度海洋牧场生态系统结构的复杂性与动态性,重点关注了鱼礁群布局对牧场海域水动力环境、沉积物和生源要素演变的影响,以及在增殖放流等人为扰动下生物群落的物种共存机制。围绕海洋牧场生态系统稳定性与抗干扰能力等关键问题,从水动力驱动、生源要素表征、生物群落重建及生态系统健康等4个方面探讨了目前研究的不足与发展方向,以为海洋牧场人工鱼礁、海藻床等生境营造以及资源修复模式优化提供参考。

海岸带区域海洋生态环境承载力综合评价方法体系的探讨与分析

作为协调海岸带区域开发利用活动与生态环境保护之间关系,衡量海岸带区域可持续发展能力的重要手段之一,海洋生态环境承载力综合评价的量化研究至关重要。文章总结了当前海洋生态环境承载力综合评价研究中所存在的问题,比较分析了当前承载力评价中常用的技术方法,并结合海岸带区域的特点,遴选出一套适用于海岸带区域海洋生态环境承载力综合评价的方法体系;在此基础上,通过案例应用的结果分析,进一步探讨该方法体系的可行性与局限性,并提出了改进建议。研究结果表明:鉴于海岸带区域生态系统的复杂性和不确定性,目前一些传统、常用的承载力评价方法,并不能很好地适用于海岸带区域海洋生态环境承载力综合评价;文章所提出的方法体系通过充分考虑人类活动与海洋生态环境之间的相互作用,能较好地支持海岸带区域海洋生态环境承载力评价指标体系的建立,客观地对各项评价指标进行赋权,并能定量化地对海洋生态环境承载力开展综合分析与评估,从而为海岸带区域生态环境承载力综合评价提供一个可行的途径,并为确保海岸带区域的可持续发展提供经验参考;此外,该方法体系存在着两方面的局限性,包括缺乏权威和统一的指标体系构建方法,以及缺乏具体的评价结果分级标准。鉴此,建议未来需要对指标体系构建和评价结果分类标准的相关方法,进一步开展深入研究,从而不断地完善海洋生态环境承载力综合评价的方法体系,使海洋生态环境承载力综合评价的结果更加科学精确。

基于熵权优劣解距离模型(TOPSIS)的海洋资源环境承载力评价--以潍坊市为例

海洋资源环境承载力是评价海洋资源环境系统承载人类活动的能力指标。为掌握潍坊市海洋资源环境承载力水平变化趋势和关键影响因素,从海洋经济发展、海洋资源承载和海洋环境承载三个子系统选取25个指标构建海洋资源环境承载力评价体系,采用熵权优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)模型对潍坊市2010—2019年海洋资源环境承载力及3个子系统承载力水平进行评价,利用灰色关联度方法分析各项指标与海洋资源环境承载力的相关程度并确定关键影响因素。结果表明:2010—2019年潍坊市海洋资源环境承载力水平总体上呈波动上升趋势,2010—2012年略微下降,2013—2016年上升趋势明显,2017年有所下滑,之后稳步上升。其中,海洋经济发展水平呈稳步上升趋势,海洋资源承载呈波动中下滑趋势,海洋资源承载压力较大,海洋环境承载水平整体呈波动上升趋势,且与潍坊市海洋资源环境承载力变化趋势基本一致。影响海洋资源环境承载力的关键因素是工业废水排放达标率和单位面积工业废水排放量。因此,潍坊市应立足本地区资源环境禀赋科学地发展海洋经济,制定中长期的海洋强市发展规划,同时重点做好海洋资源的可持续利用和海洋生态环境保护,推动海洋经济高质量发展。

海域承载力研究的若干问题

承载力研究是解决人口、资源、环境协调发展问题的重要内容之一。该文从海洋可持续发展角度 ,借鉴有关承载力研究的部分成果 ,从理论上探讨了有关海域承载力的定义、研究内容、研究特点及研究趋势等 。

海洋生态环境承载力评价指标体系研究

海洋生态环境承载力是衡量海洋可持续发展的重要标志。本文在借鉴国内外区域承载力研究思路与方法的基础上,结合我国沿海各地海洋生态环境的实际状况,给出评价指标选取的原则,通过综合分析各地的社会、经济、资源与生态环境因素,构建适合我国海洋生态环境承载力评价的指标体系,为定量分析沿海地区生态环境承载力奠定基础,为海洋资源的可持续利用与管理提供技术支撑。

海水鱼类网箱养殖场有机污染季节动态与养殖容量限制关系

通过对大鹏澳海水鱼类网箱养殖场颗粒有机碳的沉积通量和表层沉积物有机碳的季节动态的研究,并结合养殖容量现状调查结果进行分析,结果发现,春、秋两季为网箱养殖场有机污染的积累阶段,其颗粒有机碳沉积物通量大于表层沉积物有机碳分解速度.因此,春、秋两季有机污染对养殖容量的限制作用最敏感,以表层沉积物有机碳含量1.8%作为养殖容量限制指标,则目前该网箱养殖场春、秋两季养殖容量分别达到了650t和550t的最高限值.

基于生态模型估算胶州湾菲律宾蛤仔养殖容量

贝类的养殖容量是养殖功能海域的生态系统所能容纳的最大养殖个体数量.本文由实测资料建立了胶州湾生态模型 ,计算了浮游植物生物量 ,进而依据饵料收支平衡关系 ,估算了胶州湾菲律宾蛤仔的养殖容量 ,研究结果表明 ,各养殖区不同规格蛤仔的养殖容量在1月或3月份最大 ,9月份最小 ;胶州湾5个养殖区内 ,2~2.6cm、2.6~3.3cm和3.3~4cm3种壳长规格菲律宾蛤仔的平均养殖容量分别为603枚/m2 、441枚/m2和362枚/m2 ,胶州湾菲律宾蛤仔的播放密度已经饱和 ;为了保持最大产量、提高养殖品质的同时并将苗种成本降至最低 ,可适当降低播放密度 ;建议红岛东、红岛南、红岛西、胶州、黄岛等5个养殖区菲律宾蛤仔的放养密度分别为718枚/m2 、693枚/m2 、557枚/m2 、805枚/m2和654枚/m2 ,胶州湾平均放养密度为690枚/m2 .

海域承载力的理论与评价方法

承载力研究是解决人口、资源、环境协调发展问题的重要内容之一,目前,关于承载力的研究主要集中在水资源、土地资源、森林资源等对人口和经济的承载量方面。文章借鉴这些学科的有关理论与方法,从理论上创造性地提出海域承载力的定义、评价指标体系、评价方法与研究趋势;指出海域承载力是指一定时期内,以海洋资源的可持续利用、海洋生态环境的不被破坏为原则,在符合现阶段社会文化准则的物质生活水平下,海洋能够支持人口、环境和经济协调发展的能力或限度。

环渤海地区海域承载力测度与时空分异分析

采用韦伯-费希纳定律确定指标评价标准,通过D-S证据合成理论将主客观权重相结合确定综合权重,应用信息扩散技术确定小样本情况下样本指标值在指标评价域上的信息分配,进而确定隶属度,在此基础上利用模糊综合评判方法对环渤海17个沿海城市的海域承载力进行评价,并运用自然断裂法进行空间表达。研究结果表明,2000-2011年,环渤海地区海域承载力虽有波动,但总体上呈上升趋势,各地海域承载力不断提高,但级别特征值都在1.8-4.0之间,整体水平不高;区域空间分异明显,空间峰值效应显著。