Prevention of Agricultural Market Risks by Agricultural Production Entities in Hubei Province

Different agricultural production and operation entities face the same market risks.Since there is a huge gap in market risk prevention ability between agricultural market operation entities,the gap of risk prevention effect is huge.Using statistical analysis and comparative analysis methods,this paper analyzed characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural market risks and pointed out characteristics of agricultural market and special characteristics of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province.Based on SWOT analysis on market risk prevention ability of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province,it came up with three recommendations,including upgrading agricultural production and operation entities,enlarging the production and operation scale,and strengthening the ability of balancing the market demand and supply and bargaining power and pricing power.

PRICING EUROPEAN OPTION IN A DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL WITH TWO MARKET STRUCTURE RISKS AND ITS COMPARISONS

Using Fourier inversion transform, P.D.E. and Feynman-Kac formula, the closedform solution for price on European call option is given in a double exponential jump-diffusion model with two different market structure risks that there exist CIR stochastic volatility of stock return and Vasicek or CIR stochastic interest rate in the market. In the end, the result of the model in the paper is compared with those in other models, including BS model with numerical experiment. These results show that the double exponential jump-diffusion model with CIR-market structure risks is suitable for modelling the real-market changes and very useful.

Micro,Small,and Medium Enterprises’Cross-Border Business Strategies

This paper explores the operational strategies of cross-border micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Against the backdrop of globalization and digitalization, cross-border trade has become one of the important pathways for many MSMEs to achieve growth and competitive advantage. Firstly, the paper outlines the concept and characteristics of cross-border MSMEs, as well as the analysis of their operational environment in the context of globalization, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors. Secondly, the paper proposes operational strategies for cross-border MSMEs, including international market selection and positioning, cross-border marketing strategies, supply chain management, cross-border financial management, and cross-border risk management. Finally, the paper summarizes the importance of effectively implementing these strategies for cross-border MSMEs to seize international market opportunities, reduce operational risks, and enhance competitiveness and profitability.

Research on Market Risk Assessment of Dairy Farms: Taking 75 Dairy Farms in Heilongjiang Province as Examples

Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk, production risk, contract risk and policy risk, five aspects of a total of 12 assessment indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the market risk. The evaluation results showed that the market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at low risk; however, the policy risk was high. Finally, according to the results of the assessment, the suggestions was made as the followings： the government should expand the scope of policy insurance for dairy farming, vigorously promote the development of cooperative organizations and intermediary organizations in dairy farms by purchasing services through government, increase their functional roles and establish strict supervision mechanisms, including the establishment of official advice hotline and consultation channel online and improving third-party testing mechanism; government and the department of management industry would improve their abilities of management and do a good job of training and guiding.

A Statistical Measure of Global Equity Market Risk

We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a novel approach to measuring global market risk, and an alternative to the VIX. Using data of 20 major stock markets, including G10 economies, we find spikes in our EMR index during the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the novel coronavirus pandemic. The result shows that the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 induced crisis record the historic highest spikes in financial market risk, suggesting stronger evidence of contagion in both periods.

Analysis of Volatility Spillover Effect of Soybean Price between Domestic and International Markets

Sharp fluctuation of soybean prices in international and domestic markets has caused big risks for both domestic soybean producers and processing enterprises in recent years. It also increases the difficulties in implementing price stabilization policy for the government. This paper analyzes the volatility spillovers in soybean prices between international and domestic markets using the multivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model based on the data set from December 22,2004 to December 19,2014. The estimate results indicate that there are volatility spillover effects from domestic futures market to spot market and bilateral spillover between international futures market and domestic spot market. In order to prevent market manipulation and to reduce the impacts of price volatility in international soybean market on Chinese market,this paper proposes the following policy measures such as establishing early warning mechanism for soybean price fluctuations,improving soybean futures contract design and strengthening trading risk management mechanism,amplifying information disclosure system,and regularizing speculation activities of big traders.

Risk in A Concentrated Export Market

The export destination of China’s home textile products are considered to be highly concentrated. This is reflected by the statistical data of the past couple of years when, the top export destination of the following products-bedding products, curtain and towel- is United States.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vegetable production and countermeasures from an agricultural insurance perspective

In the face of the corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,it is essential to stabilize the security of urban“shopping baskets”.Through a survey and interviews with 46 agricultural cooperatives in Shanghai,this paper analyzes the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and offers suggestions on agricultural insurance.The research results show that:(1)the pandemic has impacted almost all stages of the vegetable supply chain but has had a greater impact on the sales stage;(2)the market risks of vegetable production have increased significantly,and the gap between the field price and the market price has widened.The sales price difference between traditional channels and e-commerce is notable;(3)farmers’incomes have generally declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic,and traditional small-scale farmers have suffered more losses;and(4)agricultural insurance plays an important role in stabilizing the supply of vegetables to the city.To minimize the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and to stabilize both urban“shopping baskets”and farmers’incomes,it is necessary to further improve agricultural insurance,especially to provide insurance against market risks.

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Product Price Index Insurance Based on Pilot Cases

Agricultural product price index insurance is a kind of index insurance. It avoids defects of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazards,adverse selection,and high management cost. On the basis of studying agricultural product price index insurance of all areas of China,this paper analyzed characteristics of agricultural product price index insurance from object selection,product object,premium design,and policy support,and discussed feasibility of extending agricultural product price index insurance in an all-round way.

Impacts of CME Changing Mechanism for Allowing Negative Oil Prices on Prices and Trading Activities in the Crude Oil Futures Market

This study investigates and compares the effects of the Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,the Chicago mercantile exchange(CME)'s negative price suggestion on prices and trading activities in the crude oil futures market to discuss the cause of negative crude oil futures prices.Through event studies,the empirical results show that the COVID-19 pandemic no longer impacts crude oil futures prices in April,2020 after controlled market risk,while the CME's negative prices suggestion can explain the crude oil futures price changes around and even after April 8,2020 to some degree.Moreover,this study uncovers anomalies in prices and trading activities by analyzing returns,trading volume,open interest,and illiquidity measures using vector autoregressive(VAR)models.The results imply that CME's allowing negative prices strengthens the price impact on trading volume and makes illiquidity risk matter.This study's results coincide with the following lawsuit evidence of market manipulation.

Internet Financial Risks and Investors’Risk Awareness--Evidence from Transaction Data of Online Lending Platforms

For the first time,this paper uses the operation data of 575 online P2P lending platforms to test whether investors have a strong risk awareness of online lending products.It is found that investors’behavior shows a certain risk awareness,both for the individual risk of specific platforms and for the overall market risk of the industry.On the one hand,raising interest rates and shortening the term does attract more investment,but for potentially problematic platforms,the effect of attracting investment is significantly worse,with excessive interest rates on the platforms even causing investors to invest less.On the other hand,when there are more online lending platforms in the market,investors will behave more cautiously.

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND CORPORATE FINANCING DECISIONS IN CHINA:THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper examines the effect of government policies on the financing decisions of firms in China. A real options model is developed to understand how fiscal and monetary policies affect corporate leverage.The model predictions will be tested with a comprehensive panel data set spanning from 2002 to 2011.This work documents robust evidence that show the positive association of both tax and risk-free rate with firm leverage：increase in tax rate and risk free rate by one standard deviation results in the increase in corporate leverages by 0.61 to 1.06 percent and 2.54 to 3.68 percent,respectively.In addition,the productions of the firms are not affected by the tax rate in the short run,and the firms are operating in their optimal market leverage.The implied tax rate and risk free rate are solved by assuming that the firms achieve their optimal leverages.The implied tax rate declines with the size, whereas the opposite goes for implied risk-free rate.